SpaceX Finally Here! "Most Expensive IPO Ever": The Next Amazon or Tesla?

Tiger_comments
06-12
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Tonight, the largest IPO in history begins trading on Nasdaq under the ticker $Space Exploration Technologies(SPCX)$.

The hype has reached a fever pitch. More than $250 billion in subscription funds have reportedly been locked up, with retail investors alone contributing over $70 billion. Allocation rates are expected to be only 20–30%, while more than 1,000 institutions competed for shares and international allocations accounted for less than 10% of the deal. With a greenshoe stabilization mechanism in place, most investors expect a strong debut rather than an IPO break.

The Most Expensive IPO in History

SpaceX generated roughly $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025. At a $1.77 trillion valuation, that implies a staggering 94x price-to-sales ratio. If the stock quickly reaches a $2 trillion valuation, that multiple rises to 107x sales.

In comparison:

P/S

Why Are Investors Willing to Pay So Much?

Wall Street is not valuing SpaceX as a rocket company.

Investors are effectively betting that today's

SpaceX = growth potential of early Amazon + manufacturing scale of Tesla + AI infrastructure exposure of NVIDIA

and the recurring cash-flow profile of a global telecom operator through Starlink.

To justify a $1.77 trillion valuation, some long-term models imply SpaceX would need to grow annual revenue from roughly $18.7 billion today to more than $1 trillion by 2035, requiring close to 50% annual compound growth for an entire decade.

That is an extraordinarily ambitious assumption. Amazon, Tesla, and NVIDIA all became legendary winners, but each also went through periods of extreme volatility that would have shaken out most investors long before the payoff arrived.

What Happens After the IPO? Index Inclusion.

Nasdaq-100, MSCI, and FTSE Russell are all expected to move quickly, while even the S&P 500 appears increasingly open to accelerating its timeline. That could create billions of dollars of passive buying demand.

On the other hand, lockup expirations remain a future overhang. Shares are expected to be released gradually over the months following the IPO, creating potential waves of selling pressure as early investors gain liquidity.

Bull Case: You're not buying a rocket company—you're buying the future of AI infrastructure, global connectivity, space transportation, and Starlink's recurring cash flows all in one stock.

Bear Case: At a $1.77 trillion valuation and 94x sales, the market may already be pricing in a decade of near-perfect execution before that success has actually been delivered.

Discussion

Are you bullish or bearish on SpaceX at current valuations?

Oppenheimer sees $190, while Morningstar sees $63. Which target do you believe?

Can SpaceX really compound revenue at roughly 50% annually for the next ten years?

Is this the next Amazon or Tesla—or the most expensive leap of faith Wall Street has ever taken?

Leave your comments to win tiger coins~

SpaceX Slides for Third Day to $185 — Time to Exit?
SpaceX (SPCX) fell another 3.56% today, retreating to $185 as IPO euphoria rapidly fades. Analyst sentiment has shifted cautious, with calls to 'sell based on historical IPO patterns' and advice for long-term holders to 'take profits into strength.' The first sell rating has emboldened bears, while questions over AI disrupting its core business add pressure. From a post-IPO surge to three straight losses — do you sell the next bounce, or wait for a deeper pullback to buy in?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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Comments

  • Shyon
    06-12
    Shyon
    I’m cautiously constructive on $SpaceX(SPCX)$ , but at this valuation I wouldn’t treat it as an obvious buy. At ~90x sales, the market is already pricing in near-perfect execution & strong long-term growth, so the risk-reward feels stretched in near term even if the long-term story is compelling.

    What keeps me from being bearish is that SpaceX is no longer just a rocket company. Starlink’s recurring revenue, combined with dominant launch capabilities and potential future space infrastructure, gives it multi-industry optionality. If those engines scale as expected, the premium valuation can make sense over time—but it also assumes multiple big bets all work out simultaneously.

    Overall, I’m bullish long term but skeptical of the current price fully reflecting execution risk. I see more room for volatility than steady compounding in the short run & I’d lean closer to the more conservative valuation targets.

    @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub

  • icycrystal
    06-14
    icycrystal
    Evaluating SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) at its current $2.12 trillion market capitalization—following its historic June 12, 2026 Nasdaq debut—requires separating an elite, operational business from an unprecedentedly "frothy" public valuation. At a closing price of $161.11 per share (a ~19% pop from its $135 IPO price), the market has heavily favored Oppenheimer’s bull case, leaving Morningstar's conservative fundamental anchor far behind in early trading momentum.
    The massive divergence between Oppenheimer’s $190 target and Morningstar’s $63 fair value estimate highlights a fundamental disagreement over how to classify the company.
    In the near term, Oppenheimer’s momentum narrative wins due to massive institutional backstops and index buying. Over a 3-to-5-year horizon, however, Morningstar's gravity applies. The current price requires investors to fully "pre-pay" for a decade of flawless execution.
  • MHh
    06-14
    MHh
    I am bearish on SpaceX’s current valuations. It is quite an insane bet that any company that compound revenue at almost 50% annually for the next 10 years. That is asking for 10 years of consistent outsized performance. In the longer term, I do believe that SpaceX might be able to pull off its space data centre but it is still speculative at this point in time as nothing has been demonstrated yet, not even a prototype is available. Sending rockets and satellites are not quite the same as the picture painted by Elon.


    I think this is the most expensive leap of faith that the Wall Street has taken and most are forced to take it as the various index fund managers buy it. This feels like FOMO where many buy the latest hype of town.


    I think the next one year will give clarity. There is no need to rush into it now. I wouldn’t be suprised that the price will drop to sound the $60-70. That might be a good and safe entry point just to gain exposure to a speculative future.
  • koolgal
    06-14
    koolgal
    🌟🌟SpaceX $SpaceX(SPCX)$ has landed on 12 June with a record shattering USD 2.1 trillion valuation, making it the biggest ever IPO in the history of Wall Street.  It also welcomes the world's first trillionaire Elon Musk.

    Oppenheimer's target price of  USD190 vs Morningstar USD 63 are 2 extreme polar opposites.

    Oppenheimer is pricing SpaceX as an un-bypassable space monopoly & has a trailing 133x price to sales multiple.  It assumes that deep space exploration, Mars colony infrastructure & rocket travel will perfectly monetise on a clean timeline, completely ignoring the huge USD 4.94 billion net loss last year.

    In contrast Morningstar has priced SpaceX as a capital intensive utility with a 33x trailing multiple.

    I believe Morningstar's target price is more realistic.  Yet investing in SpaceX is taking a leap of faith into the future with no certainty that it will succeed in its endeavours.

    Ultimately it comes down to each individual's risk appetite.

    @Tiger_comments

  • 這是甚麼東西
    06-15
    這是甚麼東西
    50% Annual Revenue CompoundingNo, SpaceX cannot sustainably compound revenue at 50% annually for the next decade. Growing from $20 billion to over $1.1 trillion in ten years is historically unprecedented for a capital-heavy hardware company. Starlink broadband will eventually hit subscriber saturation, and terrestrial alternatives will limit the addressable market for satellite-based services.
  • 這是甚麼東西
    06-15
    這是甚麼東西
    Oppenheimer vs. MorningstarI believe Morningstar's $63 valuation is the grounded truth. Oppenheimer's $190 target relies heavily on speculative orbital AI data centers that do not commercially exist yet. Morningstar correctly recognizes that the market is overpaying for hype, pricing in a 100% success rate for a highly capital-intensive and risky deep-tech roadmap.
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