I think the selloff in Seagate and WDC is mainly about future supply, not weakening AI storage demand. Toshiba’s planned capacity expansion reminds the market that strong demand and high margins will eventually attract more competition. The key concern is whether the current HDD scarcity and pricing power can last into 2027 and beyond.
Personally, I do not think the AI storage thesis is broken yet. Toshiba’s new capacity will take time to ramp, while hyperscalers continue investing heavily in AI infrastructure. I would watch Toshiba’s ramp-up, long-term supply agreements and HDD pricing closely before drawing any major conclusions.
For me, the key question is simple: can AI storage demand keep growing faster than HDD supply? If yes, this 10% drop could prove to be an overreaction. If supply grows too quickly and pricing weakens, however, it could be an early warning that the HDD cycle is changing.
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