The dollar index, which rebounded continuously, finally suffered retracement and correction last week, and several yin and yang trends showed that the current level of long and short differences began to increase. It is worth noting that the performance of the Japanese yen seems to show signs of leading the foreign exchange market in the near future-the US dollar is under pressure after the Japanese yen rebounds, while the US dollar benefits during the Japanese yen's decline. As the yen approaches the daily price of the previous upward adjustment of the Japanese bond yield curve, the direction choice of the yen is expected to be crucial.
For the convenience of comparison, the trend charts of US dollar index (orange) and US dollar/Japanese yen (instead of 6J Japanese yen futures) are specially pulled out. It can be found that the synchronization rate between the two is higher than most people expected. Especially in this round of US dollar plunge and bottoming rebound, US dollar/Japanese yen has played a leading role. 137.50 is the starting point of the latest accelerated exchange rate decline, while the highest rebound position last week was 137.10. Correspondingly, the rebound of the US dollar index was just suppressed by the short-term trend pressure of 105.3/6.
As we all know, the main driving force of the yen since the end of last year comes from the market's expectation of its monetary policy adjustment. At this stage, the yen is still similar to gold, acting as the role and attribute of risky assets. On the premise that this feature does not change, whether the yen can make a breakthrough will determine the height of the dollar rebound and whether there is a chance to complete the bull market restart. However, European currencies in the traditional sense, such as Euro and British Pound, have little reference value in this respect. Although the European Central Bank raises interest rates loudly, the answer is that the euro completely fluctuates in reverse to the US dollar and follows the US dollar; The pound as a whole also follows the non-US, but the pound is more affected by the data.
For the United States and Japan, 135.60/20 is the key support, corresponding to the daily TDMA and the latest swing low level respectively. If the daily line closes below this range, it will imply that the short-term dollar rebound has come to an end. Double dip or fall into shock consolidation will be the general direction of the next market. However, as long as the bulls keep trading and running above 133, the upward road on the weekly line will not completely end. Feb. non-farm data, due out on Friday, could offer an ideal trading opportunity if there is a big discrepancy.
Gold prices had a good rally last week, in line with our expectations of no further declines after the month-line engulfing. Gold can provide a reference for the short-term direction of risky assets when crude oil prices are still slow to get out of the range. However, it is still difficult to refresh the high point in the big cycle, so it is suggested to look for gold opportunities with the ideas and ideas of high throwing and low sucking in interval trading.
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