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Recent inflation data and Jerome Powell's acknowledgement that financial conditions have tightened (influenced by the rise in bond yields since their last meeting), supports the case for the continued Fed pause. This gives us a nice window of time to accumulate $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ In my opinion. Trade safe.

In the past two years, the rapid increase in benchmark interest rates has risen by 525 basis points, the fastest level since the 1980s. The more important question for investors to consider is whether the degree of Federal Reserve tightening is sufficient. By pushing up financing costs through policy interest rates, we can determine the degree of crowding out of incremental financing demand and erosion of stock interest costs. The purpose of monetary tightening is to suppress demand, mainly by raising policy interest rates to guide the overall financing costs of society to rise, thereby affecting new demand and stock costs: 1) financing costs are higher than investment returns, suppressing incremental financing demand; 2) stock interest pressure increases, squeezing out other consumption a

The increased market volatility that started two weeks ago is likely to intensify, with a large amount of data being released this week.On Wednesday, various data releases will begin: the ADP employment report, JOLTS, and ISM, followed by the Treasury bond auction at 1 pm Eastern Time, and then the FOMC interest rate decision.Since a no rate hike in November FOMC is already the consensus expectation in the market, the focus will be on Powell's press conference.Fed Tools at CMEDuring a special interview two weeks ago, Powell told investors not to think that the Fed's job is done even if there is no rate hike. It is expected that Powell will continue to convey this message in the statement and press conference.So far, economic data continues to support the Fed taking more or longer tightenin

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Ackman Waves the White Flag on Treasuries - Is it Time to Go Long? Just a few days ago, our man Bill Ackman sent shockwaves through Wall Street when he announced he was closing his short position on long-term US bonds. Why? Because he believes the high yields on these long term US treasury bonds are simply unsustainable. $10-YR T-NOTE - main 2312(ZNmain)$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$  Bill Ackman is no stranger to making bold moves, but this one's got us all talking. He's essentially saying, "I give up, the yields are too darn high." He might be onto something. When a legendary investor like Ackman throws in the towel on a bearish bet, it's time to pay attention. This isn't just

Billionaire investor Bill Ackman said he covered his short bet on US Treasuries, noting “there is too much risk in the world to remain short bonds at current long-term rates.”, reason being the economy is slowing faster than recent data suggests. Is this the time to buy treasuries? DYODD!

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First and foremost, economic conditions play a crucial role. If I see signs of economic instability, such as high inflation, a slowing job market, or geopolitical tensions, I tend to lean towards being bullish on treasuries. These times are when investors flock to the safety of government bonds, which drives up their prices and lowers yields. On the other hand, when I observe a robust and growing economy with low inflation, I usually turn bearish on treasuries. In such scenarios, I might consider other investment opportunities that offer more attractive returns than the relatively lower yields of government bonds. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy also has a significant impact on my perspective. When I hear the Fed is implementing policies that suggest rising interest rates, I lean tow

Summary Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury Index Fund ETF has lost half its value since early 2020 due to rising inflation and a positive stock-bond correlation, as I expected then. EDV's losses have accelerated this year with the yield curve's abnormally steepening pattern. The rise in the long end of the yield curve and the potential for an inflationary recession are vital factors affecting EDV's performance. EDV is now pricing for 3-4% inflation over the next two decades, a reasonable assumption given debt issues and demographic trends. The ETF could rebound if long-term rates peak and decline, but runaway inflation risks, debt monetization, and geopolitical strains could cause further decline. William_Potter Over the past two and a half years, I have had a relatively consistent bearis

Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman recently made headlines with his highly successful bet against US 30-year Treasury bonds, earning a substantial profit of approximately $200 million. The trade, which he announced in August, involved exiting the short position that had initially caused a surge in Treasury prices, subsequently leading to a decline in yields that had hit a 16-year high. Ackman’s decision to exit the position was driven by the perceived heightened risks in the current global economic climate, as well as indications that the economy was slowing at a faster pace than initially suggested by recent data. $WTI Crude Oil - main 2312(CLmain)$ $Gold -

$10-YR T-NOTE - main 2312(ZNmain)$ Buy the 20-year Treasury. Pick up over 3% in yield and get roll DOWN the curve as 10yr is below the 20yr. Yield Curve unchanged would get you roughly a 5.7% return. Can by Treasuries easily through most brokers or Treasury Direct. Definitely the trade for $100K or larger purchases.

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ I am reluctant to own directly a 20-yr bond. The national debt level will continue to be an ongoing and growing problem so selling on the secondary market could become money loosing experience. For this reason I would own directly and hold to maturity a 5-yr or maybe 10-yr note max.Many investors clearly would be better off buying longer-term Treasuries. But don't plan on huge gains, because I think rates are structurally higher for many years to come.I always give myself room to buy more lower.

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ I am a simple retail guy who thought it a good idea to start buying long bonds. TUA might be a nice fit for me as I am looking for tools to bet on the Fed dropping rates in the next 18 to 24 months. And I am netting they will drop at least 200 points.

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ Assuming TLT hits 80, what sized position do you take here? It feels like my 1-3% rule shouldn't factor in as it is not a single equity. I took a position in commodities some time back through GSCI and was comfortable at around 6%. Bonds have had a very low % in my portfolio (other than very short or money markets which currently hold around half my money as a cash alternative). The traditional 60/40 I am not comfortable with.....

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ Ackman seems to time his macro calls very well. And he has done this couple of times and with a large bet so it can't be dismissed as luck. Further since it's a macro call hard to suggest he had any insider information or was manipulating anything.That is something very interesting. Most managers can't get the timings of their macro calls right, even if their general direction is right.