Bear vs. Bull: Expectations in H2 2023

With Major index and Techstocks riding the Markets, headlines and market analyses saying that stocks are in a bull market, But is this really a bull market? ---------- How long will the bull market continue? What's your understanding? Any perspectives or factors give your clear sign? Do you have your own plan for H2 2023? How will you trade?

AI is Cooling Down?

— Or just picking you up in reverse? After reaching its peak with an opening stock price of $351 on June 16th, the stock price of the tech giant $Microsoft(MSFT)$ started to decline and by the close on June 26th, it had fallen back to the levels of late May. Other tech giants have also experienced varying degrees of retracement recently, and $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ , the strongest chip stock due to increased demand for AI, has experienced its largest drop in a month. Is AI cooling down?As for ChatGPT, according to SimilarWeb data, the growth in ChatGPT's traffic has noticeably slowed down recently, with a continuous decline in month-on-month comparison due to a larger base. Unless there are unexpected develop
AI is Cooling Down?

H2 2023 Outlook | S&P 500 Sectors be Focused on & Points Forecast

1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Technical Points ForecastsRecommend to read: H2 2023 Outlooks | Reasons on Slow Bull vs. Bear of S&P 500As of post, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ retreated from its approaching August 2022 peak. Because of the previous excessive pull-up, the retracement recently is considered healthy. And $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is still in its weekly and monthly upward trend.However, see from the daily chart, According to Axel Rudolph, senior analyst at IG, he pointed out: "In fact, we can see a small rising wedge structure on the daily chart, which may indicate that at least a short-term top
H2 2023 Outlook | S&P 500 Sectors be Focused on & Points Forecast

Upward GDP means more tightening policy?

In the last week of the first half of the year, the US stock market reached a new high, with $Apple(AAPL)$ surpassing a market capitalization of 3 trillion dollars, becoming the main driving force behind the market's rise. However, excellent macroeconomic data may be the primary reason for investors' sustained optimism.Two revised financial indicators have further improved the situation: Q1 US GDP, with a quarterly annualized growth rate revised from the previous 1.3% to a final value of 2%, far exceeding the market's expectation of 1.4%; and Q1 US Core PCE Price Index, with a slight downward revision in the quarterly annualized growth rate to 4.9% from the previous 5.0%, and a slight downward revision in the quarterly annualized growth rate to 4.
Upward GDP means more tightening policy?
avatarZEROHERO
2023-07-01

Triple Top Pattern On S&P 500 🤑

Thanks to Tiger for awarding the weekly top predictions for SPY once again. 63% profit from taking SPY calls on the last day of June as anticipated. Looking forward to greater gains in the second half of 2023 starting next week! 🤑 The S&P 500 has risen 15.9% this year to 4,450.38, but we're actually in a bull market, with a 24% gain from the 2022
closing low of 3,577.03 on Oct. 12. (One definition of a bull market is a 20% price increase for a stock index.) Although a pullback is likely to come over the short-term, especially heading into the Federal Reserve’s next decision on interest rates scheduled for July 25 and July 26, a continuation of the bullish cycle could continue into the end of the year. Take the stairs next? The S&P 500 gapped up 0.59% to start the trading day on F
Triple Top Pattern On S&P 500 🤑

H2 2023 Outlooks | Reasons on Slow Bull vs. Bear of S&P 500

Keypoints:Have You Miss An AI-Driven Driven H1 2023?Excessive Optimism? Bear vs. Slow Bull Forecast Reasons DebateBull vs Bear Market: What Investors Need to Know | The Motley FoolRecommend to read: H2 2023 Outlook | S&P 500 Sectors be Focused on & Points Forecast1. Have You Miss An AI-Driven Driven H1 2023From the YTD chart below, we can see The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ rose over 32% by mid-June, and $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 's 2023 rise reached almost 16% in mid-June before the latest pullback of the past week.Data as of June 23rd 2023Looking back, we all witnessed the mega-cap stocks lead the rise of
H2 2023 Outlooks | Reasons on Slow Bull vs. Bear of S&P 500

Banking Risk is Over? All 23 US Banks Passes FED's Stress Test

All 23 US banks that participated in a new Federal Reserve stress test (Full PDF )would be able to withstand a severe global recession, demonstrating the strength of the biggest financial institutions at a time when the banking industry still is on uncertain ground.1. One of the toughest tests ever.According to the news previously revealed by the Federal Reserve, this year's stress test scenarios include unemployment rising to a peak of 10%, commercial real estate prices plummeting 40%, house prices falling 38%, and short-term interest rates falling to almost zero. Therefore, this test is considered One of the toughest tests ever.Source: federalreserve.govSpecial notes, the test
Banking Risk is Over? All 23 US Banks Passes FED's Stress Test

All-Time-High Stocks: PANW, EXP, GWW, SNA & LLY

Yesterday, 5 stocks - $Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$, $Eagle Materials(EXP)$, $W.W. Grainger(GWW)$, $Snap-on(SNA)$, and $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ - hit all-time-high.1. $Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$ reached $253.51Palo Alto Networks, Inc. provides cybersecurity solutions worldwide.Like we have mentioned in the new high concept of SaaS, this sector are well-positioned to shape the evolution of the tech industry by integrating Generative AI into their product roadmaps. Their access to large amounts of data gives them a competitive advantage and strengthens t
All-Time-High Stocks: PANW, EXP, GWW, SNA & LLY

Divergence in ADP and NFP jobs data? How will the market perform?

Last week, there was a certain degree of discrepancy in the two employment data released by the United States. Thursday, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data greatly exceeded expectations. After seasonal adjustment, private sector employment increased by 497,000 in June, more than twice the market's expectation of 225,000 and far surpassing the previous value of 278,000. It marked the largest monthly increase since July 2022 and significantly heightened market anticipation for the non-farm employment report to be released on Friday. However, the non-farm data did not turn out as strong as anticipated. The newly added non-farm employment in the report released on Friday unexpectedly declined to 209,000, reaching a two-year low. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate slightly decreased as ex
Divergence in ADP and NFP jobs data? How will the market perform?
avatarZEROHERO
2023-07-02

Nasdaq 100 Marks 2nd Best 6-Month Performance In History! 🥳

Thanks to Tiger for awarding the weekly top predictions for QQQ last week. Secured 16% gain from the Tech ETF on the final trading day of the first half. Join me for the ride into the remaining half of the year with amazing gain! 😎 In a stunning day for the U.S. stock market characterized by Apple Inc‘s (NASDAQ:AAPL) surge back to a $3 trillion market cap, the Nasdaq 100 Index marks a triumphant journey, putting it on track to finish the quarter with a remarkable 39% gain. This half-year performance is the second-best in the index’s history, dating back to its inception in 1985. Investors and tech enthusiasts are taking note of an astounding rally, with the Nasdaq fully recouping the losses caused by the 500 basis-point rate hikes that the Federal Reserv
Nasdaq 100 Marks 2nd Best 6-Month Performance In History! 🥳

Why Pfizer leading the decline in Healthcare?

On June 26, the pharmaceutical sector of the US stock market experienced a general decline. The pharmaceutical giant $Pfizer(PFE)$ , led the decline with a decrease of 3.6% due to its announcement of discontinuing the development of its experimental weight loss and diabetes drug, lotiglipron. This highly anticipated drug showed elevated liver enzymes in experimental patients during mid-term clinical trials, indicating potential liver cell damage, although no liver-related symptoms or side effects were observed in the patients. Pfizer stated that it will now focus on another oral obesity drug called danuglipron, which is undergoing a fully recruited Phase II clinical trial. According to the results published last month, type 2 diabetes patients expe
Why Pfizer leading the decline in Healthcare?
avatarTigerObserver
2023-07-03

Midyear Recap: After H1’s Strength, Focus on Employment Data & Fed‘s Minutes This Week

1. MAJOR INDEXES RETURNSThe major U.S. stock indexes regained the ground they had lost the previous week and then some, as generally positive economic data lifted the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ , and the $Dow Chemical(DOW)$ more than 2% each. For the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ , it was the ninth positive week out of the past ten.  The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ both gained nearly 7% to record their fourth positive month in a row. The Dow climbed nearly 5% and posted its best month since November 2022. U.S. st
Midyear Recap: After H1’s Strength, Focus on Employment Data & Fed‘s Minutes This Week
avatarOptionspuppy
2023-06-27
📈💵🐂💰How to make money from technical bullish indicator 1: How to determine a bullish reversal from bearish days ? Bullish Island reversal . If u short on this that's it BBQ 🥹🥹🥹 has been dropping for consecutive days how to search for a Greatest bullish reversal pattern Answer : island reversal  Bullish Island Reversal: A Comprehensive Explanation and Example Introduction: Technical analysis is a popular tool used by traders to study and interpret price patterns in financial markets. One such pattern is the bullish island reversal, which signals a potential trend reversal from bearish to bullish. In this article, we will delve into the concept of a bullish island reversal, explore its characteristics, and provide an example to illustrate its practical application.
avatarOptionspuppy
2023-06-12
Cpi ⬇️⬇️⬇️📈📈stocks up i except cpi to fall   Hey there, finance enthusiasts! Today, we're diving into the exciting world of the stock market and how the recent decrease in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) can have a positive impact on the market. So, grab your calculators and let's break it down! On Tuesday, the U.S. Labor Department's consumer price index reading is expected to show a slight cooling of inflation in May, although core prices are likely to have remained elevated. This news coincides with the first day of the Federal Reserve's meeting, where traders anticipate the central bank to hold interest rates at the 5%-5.25% range. Additionally, there's a 53% chance of a 25-basis-point increase in rates in July, according to the CME Fedwatch tool. Now, you might be wondering,
avatarTiger_Insights
2023-06-26

Data Board | Predicting the Future? Can Fed's Dot Plot be Trusted?!

At the June FOMC meeting, Fed unsurprisingly paused the rate hikes. However, Fed Chairman Powell stated during the subsequent press conference, “This pause does not imply that the benchmark interest rate has reached its peak.” The dot plot released at the same time indicated that FOMC members anticipate two additional rate hikes totaling 50 bps by the end of this year.Strangely, the market seemed unfazed by such hawkish remarks, and US stocks only experienced a slight decline on that day. Looking at the Fed Fund Futures traded in the market, the expected benchmark interest rate for December not only failed to surpass previous highs but also remained significantly lower than the median of 5.625% indicated in the Fed's dot plot.Source: BloombergSo, is the benchmark interest rate indicated by
Data Board | Predicting the Future? Can Fed's Dot Plot be Trusted?!

S&P500: Bear vs. Bull, Wall Street is Increasingly Divided

Last week, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed up cumulatively. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ index rose for the fifth consecutive week. The index has risen by more than 26% since the low point of the bear market. In addition, both the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ and the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ hit their highest levels since April 2022.image.pngFrom the data point:Earlier this month, discretionary investor positions, which include fund managers and retail investors, rose above neutral for the first time since February, Deutsche Bank data showed.U.S. equity funds attracted $18.85 billion in net inflows in the week ended June 14, the largest weekly net buying since mid-February 2
S&P500: Bear vs. Bull, Wall Street is Increasingly Divided
avatarLukeTan
2023-06-29
As investors navigate the ever-changing landscape of the financial markets, the question of whether the second half of 2023 will favor the bears or the bulls becomes a focal point of discussion. While no one can accurately predict market movements with certainty, this essay aims to analyze key factors and provide an assessment of the potential outlook for the second half of 2023. It is important to note that this analysis is based on current information and market trends, but unforeseen events can significantly impact market dynamics. 1. Economic Growth and Recovery: One crucial factor influencing market sentiment in the second half of 2023 will be the pace of global economic recovery. As economies rebound from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the degree of economic growth and the eff
avatarTigerPicks
2023-07-06

🎁Pick Best Targets from 20 High-quality Stocks for H2 2023

Hi Tigers,Welcome to Quantitative Picker column, a Fundamental stock picking strategies column based on the function of “Screener“ of Tiger Trade.Identifying high-quality businesses can be complex.Fundamental stock picking refers to the process of selecting and analyzing various stocks in the market involves analyzing a company’s financial data, management capabilities, and market outlook to determine its investment value and etc.As in the Early stage of H2 2023. You may become more confidence and have tried to spend more time on potential stocks to ride the biggest H1 bull for 40 years of $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ .Here are 25 high-quality stocks ranked by marketcap, selection based on key indicators: ROIC >15% ;FCF growth 5Y >10% ;Revenue growth ne
🎁Pick Best Targets from 20 High-quality Stocks for H2 2023
avatarOptionspuppy
2023-06-22
 📈🐂🏦💵😁Maximising Investments: Strategies for High and Low Market Conditions Introduction: Navigating the stock market requires strategic decision-making, particularly when faced with different market conditions. In this article, we will explore the advantages of investing in lesser IV ETFs like JEPI and QYLD when the market is higher, around the resistance price of 4300. Additionally, we will discuss the benefits of investing in established ETFs such as VOO, SPY, or QQQ when the market is lower, approximately 3800. Part I: High Market Conditions When the market is higher, around the resistance price of 4300, it is crucial to employ appropriate investment strategies that can maximize gains and manage risks effectively. Investing in lesser IV ETFs like JEPI and QYLD can be advantageous
avatarTiger_comments
2023-06-14

[9th Anniv. Quiz] With Fed "June Pause” Strengthened, Be Fear or Greed?

Topic for tigers: In today's market, do you see more greed or fear?May CPI data on Tuesday shows US inflation continued to cool down, and expectations for the Fed to pause(Probabilities of no change is 95.34% )interest rate hikes in June were strengthened.Even most Economists expect Fed to pause in June as follows:After the CPI data, all the three major U.S. stock indexes closed up collectively. The $道琼斯(.DJI)$ rose for six consecutive days, hitting a four-month high. .On the disk, technology stocks continued to lead. $特斯拉(TSLA)$ rose 3.55%, rising for 13 consecutive trading days, setting a new record for the company's longest winning streak in history; $英伟达(NVDA)$</
[9th Anniv. Quiz] With Fed "June Pause” Strengthened, Be Fear or Greed?

US Airlines record YTD High, the hot money that Buffet never makes!

On June 27th, the aviation industry experienced a general surge, with the $U.S. Global Jets ETF(JETS)$ soaring by a remarkable 4.41%, approaching the high point seen in February. Among the three major airlines, $Delta Air Lines(DAL)$ led the rally, reaching a new high for the year and returning to its March 2020 level. $United Continental(UAL)$ and $American Airlines(AAL)$ had relatively smaller declines previously, so their rebound on the same day was slightly less impressive. UAL has shown the strongest rebound since the beginning of the year. Overall, the aviation industry has benefited from low oil prices and a slowdown
US Airlines record YTD High, the hot money that Buffet never makes!