The cheerful National Day holiday arrives next week—wishing a happy break to all! For financial markets, however, long holidays often mean that volatility accumulates, and for domestic markets the post‑holiday session is frequently highly turbulent, making the long breaks—Spring Festival and National Day—the two recurring hurdles investors must face each year. Since 2020, every major Chinese holiday has tended to coincide with outsized, unexpected swings in overseas markets, leading to large gaps at the domestic open and even limit‑up or limit‑down moves. For domestic volatility to intensify, it often implies that overseas markets move one‑way during the National Day break, which could present a decent short‑term trading window for investors focused on overseas assets.Will October nonfarm

The current market remains highly sensitive to developments in the Iran-Israel conflict, with prices fluctuating in response to changes in the situation.1. Can Oil Prices Continue to Surge?Oil prices are a leading indicator of inflation and play a pivotal role in shaping sentiment across the commodities market. As long as oil is not already at an exceptionally high level, a sharp increase in oil prices will inevitably raise concerns about rising production costs, which in turn are passed on to other commodities. At present, unless Iran completely abandons its nuclear ambitions, any easing of the conflict will be gradual, making oil prices more likely to rise than fall.A critical factor is Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz. Should Iran implement a blockade, it would deal a severe blo

While the market eagerly anticipates developments in US-China negotiations and tariff issues, Israel has once again stirred the scene. Sensitive geopolitical factors have made oil prices last week’s biggest winner, as prices quickly rebounded above $65 and began to climb toward $80, approaching the median price range that prevailed during the Biden administration. How the Israel-Iran situation unfolds will introduce significant uncertainty for oil prices and other markets, which have so far remained relatively calm.According to JPMorgan, in the worst-case scenario where the Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil prices could surge to $120 per barrel, though this remains relatively unlikely at present. The bank also believes the fair value for US crude is in the $60–$65 range, as persistently high