Recent problems in the US and Swiss banking systems have led markets to sharply cut interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve. In just a few weeks, traders have changed from expecting four rate hike to wondering whether the Fed will continue its rate hike or even cut interest rates as soon as this summer (Figure 1).SOFR futures curve on March 24th and March 8thFigure 1: Interest rate expectations have changed dramatically in the past few weeksThe sharp change in interest rate expectations is good for gold. Gold is a de facto currency, and almost every major central bank has a large reserve of gold. However, gold is a non-interest-bearing currency. Therefore, when rate hike expectations are formed, gold prices tend to weaken. In fact, since the end of 2021, because investors' expec

In Europe, the strike in France continues, but the upstream resource supply remains sufficient, the downstream demand continues to be weak, the market inventory turns from falling to rising, the natural gas market forms a situation of oversupply, and the market reserve gradually increases, which drives the TTF futures price down.The temperature in the United States has risen, the domestic temperature remains appropriate, the downstream demand remains weak, the export remains stable, and the futures price of NG in the United States remains low and volatile.Market profileAs of April 11, the futures price of natural gas (NG) in Henry Port of the United States was 2.186 US dollars/million British heat, up 0.08 US dollars/million British heat from the previous cycle (04.05), an increase of 3.8%

Fundamental analysis(1) In the United States, ISM manufacturing PMI continued to decline in May, while service PMI slowed down its expansion. In June, rate hike was suspended and expected to heat up.According to the data released on June 1st, the ISM manufacturing PMI of the United States recorded 46.9 in May, with the previous value of 47.1 and the expected value of 47. The ISM manufacturing PMI of the United States in May fell short of the expected downward trend. According to the data released on June 5, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI of the United States recorded 50.3 in May, with the previous value of 51.9 and the expected value of 52.3. The ISM service PMI of the United States fell short of expectations in June, indicating that the expansion of manufacturing industry slowed down. Acco

In 2021, the performance of gold was relatively dull, and investors turned more attention to widely used commodities such as crude oil and copper, and even some small metal varieties. Due to the geopolitical tension, gold has been paid attention to by the market again, but we believe that the resistance above $2,000/oz is not small, and after the trading sentiment returns to rationality, the gold price may still run along its original track. It is unlikely that safe-haven funds will cause gold to rise for a long time In mid-March, 2020, the real interest rate of 10-year US debt went down rapidly at a high level, while gold went up simultaneously. From July to August of the same year, gold price saw a staged top, and the real interest rate rebounded briefly. In the second quarter of last ye

From the domestic macro point of view, it is still unsatisfactory at present, but the price decline has already priced in some negative factors in stages. Considering that the overall decline of other industrial metals has been very considerable, and many of them have fallen near the cost or reduced production, so the weak recovery may start to price towards the end of recovery, and the price will rebound.1. Review of COMEX copper market last weekCOMEX copper price fluctuated and rebounded last week, and the operating center of gravity moved up. The resolution of the debt ceiling problem has given the market some room to risk on, and risky assets have generally rebounded. The weaker economic data in Europe was priced in the previous price decline, while the economic data in the United Stat

Since November last year, There has been a strong rebound in gold prices at home and abroad, The driving force for the rebound of gold price comes from the market's expectation that the Fed's interest rate hike will slow down, and the nominal interest rate of the US dollar will fall at a high level. When inflation falls slowly, the real interest rate of the US dollar will also fall, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold and stimulates the rebound of gold investment demand. Geopolitical crises such as Russia-Ukraine conflict also brought some safe-haven buying, which supported the rebound of gold prices. In addition, the European Central Bank will raise interest rates stronger than the Federal Reserve in the future, which will also lead to the weakening of the US dollar exchang

I. Review of the Trend of International Natural Gas Market Review of natural gas futures market this week On Tuesday (January 18), NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas February futures (contract code: NGG2) owned by Chicago Mercantile Exchange was US $4.283 per million British thermal units, up 7 cents from the previous trading day. The opening price was US $4.356, the highest price was US $4.390, the lowest price was US $4.216, and the closing price was US $4.332, up 1.64%. This cycle, the US natural gas market is running at a high level as a whole. During the cycle, the central and eastern parts of the United States were affected by cold air, and the demand for natural gas heating stimulated the market to rise, which also laid the tone of high market in the whole cycle. However, the profit-taking

Last week, the regular meeting of the State Council once again stated that liquidity tools should be used to stabilize economic growth in a timely manner, and the market showed certain expectations for RRR reduction. Therefore, we can see that although the pressure of epidemic prevention and control in China is increasing recently, the prices of most industrial products, including copper prices, are firm, and it seems that most areas are not affected by the epidemic. At the same time, although domestic refined copper stocks have accumulated, they are still at a relatively low level. We think that the next game is between expectation and reality. The difference is that the expectation turns stronger and the reality turns weaker. The strong expectation mainly comes from the liberalization of

Three major events in the overnight bulk market: IEA Upgrades Global Demand Forecast for 2021 and 2022 The IEA monthly report raised the global demand forecast for 2021 and 2022 by 200,000 barrels per day, due to the weakening of epidemic restrictions in novel coronavirus pneumonia. OECD crude oil inventories are down 354 million barrels from a year ago, the lowest level in seven years. OPEC + may increase its oil production by 4.4 million barrels per day this year. API crude oil inventories in the United States recorded an increase of 1.404 million barrels last week API crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 1.404 million barrels in the week from the United States to January 14, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.367 million barrels, and the previous value decreased by 1.077 mi

The "Nord Stream 1" storm in Russia and Europe intensified!Gazprom (Gazprom) reported on the 25th that from 4:00 GMT on the 27th (12: 00 Beijing time on the 27th), the daily gas supply of Nord Stream 1 will be cut by half compared with the current level, that is, it will be adjusted to 20% of the full load state,Nord Stream 1 leads to Germany via the Baltic Sea and supplies Russian natural gas to many European countries. The Gazprom move has once again caused Europe to worry about the complete "cut-off" of Russian natural gas.On the 26th local time, EU member States reached a consensus on a greatly adjusted "solar terms" scheme, and agreed to reduce the use of natural gas by 15% on a voluntary basis to cope with the natural gas shortage facing the EU.According to the announcement issued by

Price changes this weekBetter weather and fears of economic recession have led to an overall liquidation of commodities, pushing market prices lower this week. However, since most crop yields have yet to be determined, improving weather alone will not reduce the risk premium of current prices. There is still the risk that falling yields will push up prices.With the acceleration of winter harvest, wheat prices have fallen the most. Although the crop situation of winter wheat still shows low yield, the market must be under certain harvest pressure. In our view, the main reason for most of the price decline last week was the macro liquidation of commodities.​​​The prices of almost all important commodities have fallen for weeks (see the chart below). Moreover, if the theme of recession contin

Summary of the Impacts of Releases11 February 2022 – 18 February 2022 Impact of Economic Releases The major economic releases of this week include theCPI MoM, CPI YoY, Unemployment Ratefrom Germany and theUnited States, andGDP QoQ, GDP YoYfigures from the United Kingdom Europe▪ European equities were in limbo this week as markets saw hair-trigger reactions over Russia’s movements in Ukraine’sterritory, with U.S President Joe Biden calling a ‘very high’ probability of invasion ▪Falling supplies from Russia and increasingtensions continue to keep gas priceselevated while energycostscontinued to climb; with the EU most reliant onRussia for its source of natural gas andan invasion could bringaboutsanctions, disrupting energy supplies ▪Heavily exposed to Russian gas, the DAX index fell 3.40% on