Recent problems in the US and Swiss banking systems have led markets to sharply cut interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve. In just a few weeks, traders have changed from expecting four rate hike to wondering whether the Fed will continue its rate hike or even cut interest rates as soon as this summer (Figure 1).SOFR futures curve on March 24th and March 8thFigure 1: Interest rate expectations have changed dramatically in the past few weeksThe sharp change in interest rate expectations is good for gold. Gold is a de facto currency, and almost every major central bank has a large reserve of gold. However, gold is a non-interest-bearing currency. Therefore, when rate hike expectations are formed, gold prices tend to weaken. In fact, since the end of 2021, because investors' expec

In Europe, the strike in France continues, but the upstream resource supply remains sufficient, the downstream demand continues to be weak, the market inventory turns from falling to rising, the natural gas market forms a situation of oversupply, and the market reserve gradually increases, which drives the TTF futures price down.The temperature in the United States has risen, the domestic temperature remains appropriate, the downstream demand remains weak, the export remains stable, and the futures price of NG in the United States remains low and volatile.Market profileAs of April 11, the futures price of natural gas (NG) in Henry Port of the United States was 2.186 US dollars/million British heat, up 0.08 US dollars/million British heat from the previous cycle (04.05), an increase of 3.8%

Fundamental analysis(1) In the United States, ISM manufacturing PMI continued to decline in May, while service PMI slowed down its expansion. In June, rate hike was suspended and expected to heat up.According to the data released on June 1st, the ISM manufacturing PMI of the United States recorded 46.9 in May, with the previous value of 47.1 and the expected value of 47. The ISM manufacturing PMI of the United States in May fell short of the expected downward trend. According to the data released on June 5, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI of the United States recorded 50.3 in May, with the previous value of 51.9 and the expected value of 52.3. The ISM service PMI of the United States fell short of expectations in June, indicating that the expansion of manufacturing industry slowed down. Acco

In 2021, the performance of gold was relatively dull, and investors turned more attention to widely used commodities such as crude oil and copper, and even some small metal varieties. Due to the geopolitical tension, gold has been paid attention to by the market again, but we believe that the resistance above $2,000/oz is not small, and after the trading sentiment returns to rationality, the gold price may still run along its original track. It is unlikely that safe-haven funds will cause gold to rise for a long time In mid-March, 2020, the real interest rate of 10-year US debt went down rapidly at a high level, while gold went up simultaneously. From July to August of the same year, gold price saw a staged top, and the real interest rate rebounded briefly. In the second quarter of last ye

From the domestic macro point of view, it is still unsatisfactory at present, but the price decline has already priced in some negative factors in stages. Considering that the overall decline of other industrial metals has been very considerable, and many of them have fallen near the cost or reduced production, so the weak recovery may start to price towards the end of recovery, and the price will rebound.1. Review of COMEX copper market last weekCOMEX copper price fluctuated and rebounded last week, and the operating center of gravity moved up. The resolution of the debt ceiling problem has given the market some room to risk on, and risky assets have generally rebounded. The weaker economic data in Europe was priced in the previous price decline, while the economic data in the United Stat

Since November last year, There has been a strong rebound in gold prices at home and abroad, The driving force for the rebound of gold price comes from the market's expectation that the Fed's interest rate hike will slow down, and the nominal interest rate of the US dollar will fall at a high level. When inflation falls slowly, the real interest rate of the US dollar will also fall, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold and stimulates the rebound of gold investment demand. Geopolitical crises such as Russia-Ukraine conflict also brought some safe-haven buying, which supported the rebound of gold prices. In addition, the European Central Bank will raise interest rates stronger than the Federal Reserve in the future, which will also lead to the weakening of the US dollar exchang