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2023-07-16

🎈📢An option opportunity with a 99% success rate!

On the same day that the Microsoft and Blizzard merger was approved by the US court, the acquisition of $Broadcom(AVGO)$ and $VMware(VMW)$ obtained approval from the European Union. When the news came out, VMW's stock price jumped more than 5% to over $156.The certainty of Broadcom's acquisition of VMW has always been higher, because VMW's major shareholder is Dell, which has sought to sell its best asset - VMW in several times to mitigate the losses in its core business. Furthermore, there have been management and board member adjustments at VMW since last winter, which means that although the acquisition has not been officially finalized, Broadcom's integration has already begun.Therefore, the acquisitio
🎈📢An option opportunity with a 99% success rate!

【Options】my opinion for selling put on TLT

Update on recent trading strategies for $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ and $Direxion Daily 20 Year Plus Treasury Bull 3x Shares(TMF)$ For the background on my trading opinions on TLT and TMF, please refer to the three previous articles:Is Selling Puts on TLT the Best Strategy Right Now?Why do I sell TMF calls, not TLT?Reviewing Options Trading on U.S. Treasury ETFsI began selling puts on TLT in early November. In December, I added selling calls on TMF. At that time, the trading logic was
【Options】my opinion for selling put on TLT
avatarOptionPlus
2023-10-19

[Options] Sell VMW‘s Puts as the Broadcom-VMware deal concern

$威睿(VMW)$ stock price plunged during last two days, and It fell another 7% in the pre-market trading.As concerns over the last leg of the Broadcom-VMware deal intensified over a snag in China. Broadcom and VMware set Oct. 23 as the deadline for VMware holders to elect the form of merger consideration they will take. The companies reiterated that they expect to close the transaction by Oct. 30, subject to the receipt of regulatory approvals and other customary closing conditions, according to a statement on Wednesday.However, the stock price is honest. Traders have some concern despite sources saying the deal should close without major issue. Traders are focused on China amid a report that China's antitrust approval for the megadeal may be delayed.
[Options] Sell VMW‘s Puts as the Broadcom-VMware deal concern

[Options] Goldman Sachs gives attractive straddle options for April earnings season

Goldman Sachs once again recommends straddle options for the upcoming earnings season. Goldman Sachs has released a list of 20 companies, believing that investors are underestimating the earnings day volatility of these targets. Buying straddles is particularly attractive, especially for $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ , $Netflix(NFLX)$ , $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ and $American Express(AXP)$ META options imply a move of +/-7.8% on earnings-day, well below its 8Q average earnings-day move of +/-14.1%. One-month normalized put-call skew is in its 10th percentile relative to the past year, indicating bullish positioning by option
[Options] Goldman Sachs gives attractive straddle options for April earnings season
avatarOptionPlus
2022-04-03

My Q1 Options Review & Share Two Movies

Hello, Tiger friends, I hope you have a nice holiday. And Pray for Shanghai. I want to review Q1 trading. The first quarter is full of swings. Nothing is impossible when the War has been happened. The S&P 500 quarterly closed down nearly 5%, while the Nasdaq quarterly dropped 9%.But there were still good sectors last quarter, such as energy,raw materials and public utilities, but I don't hold them.​ Due to$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ strong rebounded in March that made my account had no loss in the first quarter. But it was also thrilling. Review of Tesla, I sold my shares at $900 and $1000 through covered call options respectively in October last year. And then I kept doing Sell Put for several months, I earned premium of options ste
My Q1 Options Review & Share Two Movies
avatarOptionPlus
2023-12-11

【Opitons】Why do I sell TMF calls, not TLT?

$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$ is an ETF which is daily 3X $20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$. I am not really bearish on US Treasury bonds. Actually, I have sold TLT puts, as I mentioned before, Treasury bond bottoms are certain, and selling puts can be a good choice for a while.But TLT rose as much as 10% in November and it was one of the most crowded trades. It continued to rise in December. If I keep selling TLT at a safe exercise price, the premiums will be little. If I raise the exercise price of selling puts to $90, I don’t think it is safe. Since long-term U.S. bonds do not have such an increase, TLT has room for correction.I am willing to sell TLT puts at an exercise price of $87-89. I think it should c
【Opitons】Why do I sell TMF calls, not TLT?
$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Wall Street banks raise price targets on Nvidia, across the board after earnings beat despite the stock falling.Morgan Stanley Raises Target to $150 from $144Wells Fargo Raises Target to $165 from $155Goldman Sachs Raises Target to $135Mizuho Raises Target to $140 from $132BofA Securities Raises Target to $165 from $150JPMorgan Raises Target to $155 from $115Needham Raises Target to $145 from $120Bernstein Raises Target to $155 from $130Raymond James Raises Target to $140 from $120
avatarOptionPlus
2023-07-26

Sell Put of MSFT! I choose $285 as the first strike price

Finally, $Microsoft(MSFT)$ pulls back! The earnings is great! However, the market's short-term expectations for cloud services and AI were too high, causing MSFT's stock price to rise too much. As a result, in-line-with expectations is considered as “missed estimates“. Anyway, this pullback is an opportunity to add.I plan to to buy the underlying stock of $Microsoft(MSFT)$ through “Sell Put”. The first strike price of my sell put plan is $285, but currently, the premium for this strike price is too low. The premium for the option expiring on August 18th is only $0.5, so there's no need to sell the Put at this point. If the premium for the $285 strike price reaches $0.75 or more in the next few days, I wil
Sell Put of MSFT! I choose $285 as the first strike price
avatarOptionPlus
2022-03-13

FOMC&Quadruple Witching Day, how to use option to hedge?

A huge swing week, Chinese stocks were bloodied. Although many Chinese stocks have fallen out of the value for long-term investment. But to individual investors, value investment is so-called risky. $SBERBANK(SBER.UK)$ was almost cleared on the London Stock Exchange, and its share price fell as low as only $1 cent, finally withdrawing from LSE. When the stock price fell to around $3 on February 23rd, there were a lot of people buy in, and then it fell to $1 and then 1 cent.​ Is SBER worthless? Of course not, but the share price has completely separated from the value level, so don't discuss whether oversold is worth to buy from value level. Of course, if you have enough money, you can buy and hold. At present, I don't have any Chinese st
FOMC&Quadruple Witching Day, how to use option to hedge?
avatarOptionPlus
2022-02-13

Option Recap: Don't take chestnuts out of the fire

The general idea is similar to last week, so I dont do detailed review,you can read my review for last week if you like. The S&P 500 fell be its anual support line again in the second half of Friday night with geopolitical shocks. And It closed at a weely low point. My feeling is similar to last week, it might draw a right-leg. There is a small double-top in past two weeks, and both small tops did not rally to the MA50, it was not strong. As 
Option Recap: Don't take chestnuts out of the fire
avatarOptionPlus
2022-04-14

What trading opportunity from NFLX‘s options?

I read some Netflix's forecasts. To sum up, Q1 has no any good dramas, andits competitors are extremely strong. In March, it lost more than 1 million paid users while it stopped Russian business. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has a certain impact on new paid subscriptions in Europe. $Netflix(NFLX)$ ​Netflix Q1 Earnings are Coming: 3 Most Important Things to Watch on April 19 I noticed that Wall street's expectations for NFLX have been adjusted very low. Will it rebound sharply as long as it slightly exceeds expectations? From the perspective of options, the total amount of PUTs will expire next week is higher than CALLs, but most of CALLs is OTM, mainly around $400, but most
What trading opportunity from NFLX‘s options?
avatarOptionPlus
2022-06-03

[Options] My trading ideas of M&A cases, VMW&ATVI are the best.

Hey Tigers, hope you have a good weekend.I read the article about acquisitions trading opportunities yesterday from @OptionsDelta. I have the same ideas. I think trading for acquisitions is nice and stable in this volatile year.According to my experience, the market price will be between 80% and 95% of the offer price before the deal officially done. It provides us the trading opportunities. But the biggest risk is the failure of the acquisition, so we need to evaluate the possibility of failure according to each case.I am grateful @OptionsDelta for sorting out all the specific deals that have been issued with acquisition offe
[Options] My trading ideas of M&A cases, VMW&ATVI are the best.
avatarOptionPlus
2022-03-20

Tech Giants Enter the Optimistic Zone, Especially TSLA/NVDA

Good afternoon my tiger friends, we had a very suspenseful week, it worth spending time to go over. I opened a SPY PUT option as a hedge before the Fed meeting, and happily, the option was voided and the S&P rose sharply for 4 days in a row. I am currently holding $Apple(AAPL)$$Tesla (TSLA)$ and $Activision Blizzard (ATVI)$. The ATVI Sell Put with an exercise price of $80 that is being exercised this weekend, so I will raise to my ATVI position at $80 again, the combined cost is still $80, although the underlying stock is in a slight loss, but I did the ATVI Sell Covered Call at $82. I have been doing it for two months, and the premium has been covered the loss ove
Tech Giants Enter the Optimistic Zone, Especially TSLA/NVDA
avatarOptionPlus
2022-10-07

[Options] Bet on Volatility, but no direction

$AMD(AMD)$ lowered its guidance again, dragging down the semiconductor sector. Since September, more and more companies decreased their earnings guidances. They spanned multi-industries, such as Nike/Starbucks/Ralph Lauren for retailers, FedEx for transportation, Ford for auto, and Carnival Cruises.The stock market was led by the US dollar in September, and the negative correlation between the US dollar and US stocks was continuing in October.S&P 500 index closed at the weekly MA200 level in September, and bounced from here in October. The index rose for two days to fill up for the decline gap created by September 23, but left a bounce gap of 3700-3720. Now the market is extreme, and we just have to wait for a short-term bottom to form when th
[Options] Bet on Volatility, but no direction
avatarOptionPlus
2022-07-28

[Options] Is a good time to Sell Put Again? A big signal by unusual option

Hello,tigers,Let's talk about  FOMC first. The Fed raised interest rates by 75bp as scheduled, and the federal funds rate rose to 2.25 ~ 2.5%, equalling the highest level after the last round of interest rate hikes at the end of 2018.In Powell's press, there are the most important words as follow. He mentioned that it will come appropriate to slow the pace of increases, which is widely interpreted as doves.The next meeting will be in September, there are two months to verify whether inflation has eased.Since last week, the beta stocks saw in a large amount of capital inflow. and QQQ took the lead in making up for the higher gap. In the past two days, big technologies missed the expectations to rise instead. All signal to the
[Options] Is a good time to Sell Put Again? A big signal by unusual option
avatarOptionPlus
2023-09-22

Sell put to earn premium and prepare for Oct. rebound! My target price for AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, NVDA

Let's review the overall market and the trading opportunities in the stocks I've been monitoring. The interest rate decision lands, and it's as hawkish as expected, which is also in line with common sense. Anyone claiming it's unexpected must have their own problems. The 'higher for longer' stance was set as early as last year, why didn't they believe it?This basically confirms that there will be another interest rate hike in November this year, and it's time to start pricing it in. The current market adjustment also aligns with historical patterns seen in September. For those who are unsure or confused about the market's direction, I sincerely recommend keeping most of your funds in Tiger Vault for now.Another currently focused event is the government shutdown. Personally, I don't think t
Sell put to earn premium and prepare for Oct. rebound! My target price for AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, NVDA
avatarOptionPlus
2022-09-13

【Options】How to trade tomorrow's CPI?

The key economic data is the US CPI for August will be released tomorrow night.Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected headline CPI to rise 8.1% over the prior year in August, a moderation from 8.5% increase seen in July, and falling by 0.1% month-on-month. The core CPI increase by 6.1% year-on-year in August, higher than 5.9% in July and 0.3% month-on-month.However, investors expected that the Fed would raise interest rates by 75bp in September. Because the 8.1% inflation rate is still much higher than the 2% inflation target emphasized by Fed. Fed officials have been very hawkish in the past week. Traders are pricing in a 90% chance of a 75 b p rate hike at the September meeting, up from 57% a week earlier, according to CME Group's Fedwatch Tool.Wall Street looks unscrupulous. There is
【Options】How to trade tomorrow's CPI?
avatarOptionPlus
2022-07-18

Options In Earnings Season| Call Spread Recommended By UBS

As earnings season is entering its key period, UBS's derivatives department recommended Call Spreads to cope with this earnings season.Stuart Kaiser, head of derivatives at UBS, said: options volatility is higher during earnings season, which makes investors need to pay higher costs for big companies options. But buy call or call spreads on companies such as $Apple(AAPL)$ , Amazon (AMZN)$, Tesla (TSLA)$ and $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ are still attractive because those stocks have fallen so much this
Options In Earnings Season| Call Spread Recommended By UBS

Reviewing Yesterday's NVDA Trades and Outline Today's Trading Plans

$英伟达(NVDA)$ As what I noted yesterday : NVDA Pre-Earnings Plunge: Will the Surge in Implied Volatility Trigger a Sell-Off?"My plan was to sell calls at $800 if the stock rebounded, otherwise to sell puts at $580-600 if the stock price dropped 3-4%. However, my actual trade that to sell puts at $580 when NVDA stock price was $680. Last night, IV continued to surge, reaching 170% for at-the-money options, compared to the previous day's 140%+. With the stock price at $680 and seeing a put premium of over $3 for the expiring options at a $580 strike, thus I sold puts expiring this week.Regarding the financial report, it beats all expectations. The annual revenue for 2023 surpassed
Reviewing Yesterday's NVDA Trades and Outline Today's Trading Plans
avatarOptionPlus
2022-05-10

【Opitons】Plummet for 3 days, I start to LONG now!

Last week, the market slapped in my face. I was thinking that the rebound will last for 2-3 days, but the rebound only one day. However, I suggested that the market should not sit back and relax, and VIX was still high. Otherwise, I choose a short target is that:【Options】If only PUT one, this is it! There are still many second-tier tech stocks will release their earnings this week. They probably continue the trend of last week, accurately blasting high-valued growth stocks. So that short $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$  is still a good hedge. The indexes fell three consecutive trading days, the S&P 500 is below 4000 points, and the market was seriously oversold. CNN's Fear and
【Opitons】Plummet for 3 days, I start to LONG now!

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