As the midterm elections approach, there has been a steady flow of signs of easing tensions in Trump’s foreign policy. First came renewed talks with Iran over the strait: although they have produced no result, the situation has not deteriorated further. Then came a Russia–Ukraine “energy ceasefire” over the weekend. Taken together, these developments suggest that Trump does not want any major upheaval before the midterms and is aiming to keep things as stable as possible. The latest U.S. CPI data will be released this week. As long as the reading does not exceed market expectations, the probability of a Fed rate hike at its October meeting is unlikely to rise much. We therefore expect markets to be broadly range-bound this week. Gold Is Back Near 4,100: Another Chance to Buy the Dip? As lo

Last night, I hosted a livestream on Tiger’s futures channel to discuss shifts in the U.S. dollar cycle. We explored whether it was time to buy the dip in gold, along with trading approaches for currencies, crude oil, and U.S. equities. If you missed the livestream, you can watch the replay here >> 假期中美長債利率先升後降，黃金抄底的時機到了嗎？ - To The Moon Below, I have organized the key takeaways from the session and my main trading views by topic. I hope this will give those who did not have time to attend a quick overview of my perspective on the current market. First, a brief introduction to my background: My Main Takeaways from This Session

Last week’s October nonfarm payrolls report came in below market expectations overall, providing a sharp contrast to September’s exceptionally strong reading. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market now puts the probability of a rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s October meeting below 30%. The probability of two hikes by December has also fallen from 60% to less than 20%, suggesting that the market is gradually coming around to a more moderate Fed rate-hike path. Attention will therefore shift back to U.S.–Iran talks and developments around the U.S. midterm elections. Financial markets may subsequently price in their expectations for the election outcome. If Trump’s Republican Party falls behind, pressure on the Fed to cut rates could ease, which may be unfavorable for rate-sensitiv

Recently, movements in the U.S. dollar, interest rates, and commodities have drawn considerable attention from investors. In response to investor requests, Tiger organized an in-person discussion this month with traders who had shared strong historical returns, and invited me to take part. On September 19, I gave users in Hong Kong an in-person presentation on trading techniques titled “From Macro Cycles to Trading Strategies: A Discussion of a 102.5% Historical Cumulative Return.” It was a substantive session. The presentation focused on methods and case studies, not specific investment advice. In this in-person session, I shared some of the ways I observe markets and use trading tools, centered on the theme “Finding Trends Through Macro Analysis, Managing Risk Through Trade-Level Decisio

Chinese leaders visited the United States last week. Even by the time the visit ended and the official readout was released, there were few concrete measures or signed agreements. Apart from the easing of trade tariffs that the market had widely anticipated, there was little of particular note. The lack of a major domestic publicity push around the visit’s outcomes is also telling. Clearly, Trump hopes to generate a series of positive developments ahead of the midterm elections to bolster his electoral prospects. In addition to the Chinese visit, there was news last week of U.S.–Iran talks, but that, too, amounted to more talk than action, with no tangible outcome yet. Any further impact on oil prices and inflation may therefore have to wait until after the midterms. For financial markets

Last night, in a futures livestream on the Tiger platform, I shared my latest views on the movements of gold, equity indices, and the U.S. dollar following the U.S. Treasury’s announcement on Treasury bond purchases. The core of this session was how to assess, through correlations across different asset classes, whether the market has shifted from a range-bound environment into a new trend phase. Those who were unable to attend may watch the replay of our video course here: >>> Could the U.S. Treasury’s Aggressive Market Support Backfire? Three Ways to Track the Current Market Next, I will summarize the key information and

While the market remained focused on the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike, the U.S. Treasury released a surprising announcement last week. The Treasury announced that it would “at least double” the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations for Treasury securities maturing in 10 to 30 years, raising the cap for each buyback from USD 2 billion to at least USD 4 billion. Relative to the USD 31 trillion U.S. Treasury market, this buyback volume is negligible. Nevertheless, the Treasury’s move conveyed several messages to the market. First, long-term bond yields are too high, and the Treasury intends to exert some control over them. Second, Treasury yields around 5% may represent a psychological threshold for the U.S. Treasury; if yields deviate too far from that level, more fo

Following the stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls data, the market’s perceived probability of Federal Reserve rate hikes has continued to decline. The market now needs the next payrolls report to establish a new set of expectations. This means that, before the next data release, sentiment is likely to remain constructive. Even without a major trend, the market is likely to stay range-bound. (Note: Chart circulating via social media, original source unknown. Used for discussion purposes only. If you own this content, please DM for proper credit or takedown.) Over the weekend, there were further developments related to the Strait of Hormuz. The market has largely abandoned expectations for meaningful progress in negotiations, and there may not be significant movement even before the mid

The first week of August is formally here. In terms of how the calendar falls, the opening week of a month tends to have an outsized effect on volatility in US trading, chiefly because the US non-farm payrolls report — the release markets watch most closely — lands early in the month. In a market as rate-sensitive as the current one, payrolls feed straight into rate expectations and therefore into a wider trading range. On top of that, the weekend's US–Iran flare-up has left the progress of the “so-called” 60-day negotiation window genuinely hard to read, and that is another source of instability in the market right now. A market like this, however, is actually easier to profit from — provided you approach it with a relatively short-term mindset. $Inve

On Thursday evening I hosted a livestream on whether this Fed meeting will burst the AI bubble, and how we should be positioned for it. There were a great many charts and I moved through them fairly quickly, so not everyone will have been able to follow in real time. What follows is a written walk-through of that session — the key judgements, the charts, and every operating condition I laid out on the night, kept as close to the original as possible. Let me put the conclusion up front. Holding rates steady in July was in line with expectations, but going into the meeting the probability of “no change” was only 65.8%, whereas heading into past meetings it has typically been above 80% — which tells us the market's ex

Next week brings the hardest-to-call FOMC meeting in a long while. The reason: the recent sharp rebound in oil, compounded by events such as a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and restrictions on Red Sea shipping, has left the market with little confidence in how inflation expectations will evolve. If inflation persists, expectations for a Fed rate hike will heat up sharply — and could even become reality as early as the July meeting. Yet Trump remains firmly committed to rate cuts: a hike could trigger a sizable equity correction ahead of the midterm elections and, in turn, hurt his party at the polls. For this week's meeting, therefore, I lean toward the Fed standing pat — but with more hawkish language, nudging the market to give up its easing bets and get its “vaccination” in

After last week's CPI print, inflation expectations eased slightly, while the U.S.–Iran conflict flared up again and the previously-open strait was once more suspended. That said, this kind of escalation seems to occur almost every weekend, and by the time financial markets open it is quickly shrugged off—so I would not advise anyone to be overly anxious; wait until the market opens and it will speak for itself. Faced with this kind of murky, hard-to-read news flow, the best trading approach is to consider the technical indicators alone, and then set the corresponding strategy based on those indicators. Chart: CCTV News — “U.S.–Iran clashes hit civilian facilities across several countries; Iran warns of an all-out offensive” (reported July 19, 2026) I. U.S. equity indices have flipped shor