Last week, the Fed's interest rate meeting continued to rate hike by 25 basis points without suspense, and the market also thought it was the last rate hike of the Fed in this round without suspense. When to cut interest rates has become a topic of discussion among analysts. Looking at the past interest rate increase and reduction cycle of the Federal Reserve, the time span from suspending the rate hike to starting to cut interest rates is about 10 months on average. According to the past law, that is, early next year, it is the time point for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.However, at present, the market obviously doesn't think so. The market believes that the earliest time for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates will be the interest rate meeting in July this year, which

With the arrival of the new year, precious metals are looking forward to the new year. However, with the hawkish argument of the Federal Reserve, I am afraid it will bring great uncertainty to the gold trend in 2022. Although I personally still expect gold to continue to emerge from the bull market, the conclusion is difficult to achieve. First, the historical trend of gold​​ ​Borrowing a trend chart of gold in recent 30 years, we can see that gold generally has the long-term characteristics of soaring for 10 years and consolidating for 20 years. Since around 1970, after the collapse of Brayson, gold has emerged from a 10-year bull market, and its price has doubled many times, and then consolidated and fell for 20 years. It was not until around 2001 that gold bottomed out and resumed its b

The evening of the 4th of this week is the time when the Fed's interest rate meeting comes out, which coincides with the closure of the Chinese market. According to the past practice of doing things outside the market during the long holiday in China, I am afraid that the market volatility will intensify no matter what the outcome is. It has been two years since the Federal Reserve printed money indefinitely in the commodity market, which is in line with the characteristics of commodity bull market in history. At this time, FOMC policy is tightened, so don't be surprised. As I expected before, when the Fed policy tightens and the US dollar index enters the middle period of depreciation, the upward trend of commodities will stall and usher in repeated adjustments, and now is the opportunity

On Thursday night, the minutes of the Fed's meeting on interest rates were released, which was basically in line with market expectations.It has become the consensus of the market to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in June and July respectively. What surprised the market was that some officials of the Federal Reserve announced that they might stop raising interest rates in September, which brought a shot in the arm to a dead stock market.​​​First, the impact on the US stock index"Believe it or not, I believe it anyway", which is the attitude given by the market, so the US stock market rebounded at the bottom. As the market has fully expected the Fed to raise interest rates by 50 basis points from June to July,Between now and the September meeting, Raising interest rates is no longe

Crude oil, the recent star variety, is due to the difficulty in increasing the supply, which makes Wall Street bulls attempt to stage a forced market. The $100 oil price forecast has become the norm, and the $200 oil price forecast has begun to rise. Can crude oil only rise but not fall in 2022? Let's analyze it carefully. First, the demand repair after the epidemic After the epidemic, the demand for crude oil in China and the United States, the two largest economies in the world, has been continuously repaired and has recovered to the level before the epidemic. I'm afraid with the further control of the epidemic, it is a consensus that the demand is improving. ​ ​ The crude oil market has already experienced the test of variant virus Omicron. Even if I make bold predictions, I can't see a

The escalation of Russia-Ukraine incident triggered a risk aversion market? The events in Russia and Ukraine are rather confusing, and neither side can see that there is much action, but the United States and the European Union tell the world seriously: "Russia will invade Ukraine in the near future". It is not known whether Russia will really attack Ukraine, but the capital market now thinks it is possible to start a war. Therefore, last Friday night, crude oil, gold and wheat all fluctuated abnormally. Next, I will discuss with you what trading opportunities there are in this safe-haven market if it really starts. I. Crude oil When Russia and Ukraine start fighting, European and American countries will definitely sanction Russia, which will hinder Russia's crude oil export, which will un

The National Day holiday begins, and because the holiday time is too long, there will often be gaps in the domestic market. In order to make the domestic market gap sharply, it is necessary for the external market to fluctuate greatly during the National Day holiday. Therefore, the external market rarely spends it calmly during the National Day holiday. Everyone needs to look at the external market after the holiday. Trends, pay attention to sudden large fluctuations.The main economic event in the external market next week is the release of non-agricultural data. Since the Federal Reserve has opened the channel to cut interest rates, the focus of the market's attention has become the change in the speed of interest rate cuts. According to market expectations, they always like to go to extr

According to the news of this voluntary production reduction, the total output reduction is as high as 1.5 million barrels, which is not small, accounting for 1.5% of the total daily global crude oil demand. The last time OPEC + alliance agreed to reduce production was during China's National Day last year, and the oil price rose by 15% during the National Day, so will this trip replicate last year's market? At least look forward to it.When this kind of news appears on weekends, it usually jumps to the sky and opens higher on Monday. If the gap is formed, then the gap is an important supporting position for oil prices. In the past history, this kind of gap either fluctuated after being replenished, or directly accelerated to move forward in the direction of the gap. Therefore, if there is

The post of last two weeks told everyone that crude oil has the possibility of forcing positions. "Forcing positions" is a major feature of commodity futures, Because commodities are different from stock indexes, physical delivery is ultimately needed (although the delivery volume is small, it is the anchor of futures pricing). In the world, there is more money than goods. Once the supply of certain commodities is in short supply, it will lead to capital hoarding and forcing the demander to take over at a high price. However, this process often leads to forced positions in commodity futures. Forcing positions can be either rising (shortage of supply) or falling (oversupply), but generally speaking, there are more forcing positions in short supply. At present, the situation of crude oil has

The Palestinian-Israeli conflict continues and tends to expand. Generally speaking, things have not developed in the direction of calming down the incident, and it is possible that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will develop into turmoil on the scale of the "Arab Spring" more than ten years ago, and the uncertainty of its impact on the world economy will become increasing. At present, the relatively good news is that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit to the United States will bring hope for the first meeting of two largest economies in the future, and the warming of U.S.-China Relations will bring important thrust to the development of the world economy. So what opportunities do these events bring to investment?First, the oil price is difficult to calm downIn the current world ene

Last week's non-agricultural data is still very "strong", which disappoints the bulls in the market. After all, ending the rate hike cycle and entering the easing cycle of interest rate cuts is what market buyers expect most. As a result, non-agricultural does not cooperate, so they can only expect the next non-agricultural data, because the data will always "deteriorate" one day.The release of CPI data this week is undoubtedly a test of rate hike's expectations. Last week's non-agricultural data raised the Fed's rate hike forecast in May to 70%. If CPI falls beyond expectations, will rate hike's expectations be instantly lowered? This poor expectation of the Fed's rate hike has dominated the market of most stock indexes and commodities in the last quarter, and it is no exception at presen

With the efforts of many parties, there seems to be no new message about the banking crisis this weekend, so it will get some respite.But the current crisis is only the beginning, perhaps the tip of the iceberg, because governments and central banks have no unified rescue methods. Is the depositor's deposit 100% guaranteed? Will another bankrupt bank be saved or not? Can industry mergers and acquisitions really fill in or cover up risks? There are no clear answers to these questions in the current market, so this banking crisis will have to let the bullets fly for a while.Historically, the best investment time in financial markets is often when the crisis is completely exposed or there is a clear rescue plan for the crisis.For example, when the financial crisis in 2008, Lehman went bankrup

Last week was a sad week for me. Not only was I hit by a car during the exercise, but I was also disturbed by the fluctuation of the market, causing great losses. The war between Russia and Ukraine is a great power war that has never been experienced since its employment, which underestimates its price and emotional lethality. Past losses cannot be recovered and can only be made up by the future. No matter how many setbacks you experience, you still need to calmly analyze the future market and continue to look for suitable opportunities. Last week's volatility opened up the high volatility of the market. Many previous perceptions will be broken, and high volatility does not represent a trend. Today's daily limit and tomorrow's daily limit will become the norm in many varieties. Short-term

Over the weekend, the Republic in eastern Ukraine, which was "declared" independent by civilian armed forces, clashed with the Ukrainian military, and civilians were killed and injured, and sporadic shells landed in Russia, which further heated up the situation in Ukraine. It is difficult to say whether the incident will calm down smoothly, but we have to guard against the impact on the financial market if the war starts. And this influence will be the main line of investment in the financial market in the future. US stock index 2022 is the resonance year of the stock market. From the beginning of the year to the present, there is not much news beneficial to the stock market. Interest rate hikes and wars are important factors that hit US stocks. However, after all, the war is a short-term

The first half of the year has passed, and the second half of the year is about to If inflation expectations and the end of rate hike cycle dominate market expectations in the first half of the year, then whether the economy is in recession and interest rate cut expectations will dominate market sentiment in the second half of the year. Even if the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in July and September goes back to rate hike, this year will be almost the same. After all, the core inflation data began to slow down, and there are fewer and fewer reasons for rate hike. The rest depends on whether the economic data is affected by rate hike and there is a recession. After all, recession is the real reason for cutting interest rates.Since the debt ceiling was raised, the printing press in

It has been nearly four days since Russia hit Ukraine on Thursday. Although the news is very chaotic, at least we have seen the two sides enter the negotiation stage. We don't know the outcome of the negotiation. However, Russia needs political and military strategic security, so this part will not be too concerned for financial markets. However, Western countries have just begun to impose financial sanctions on Russia, which is the key to affect future market prices. First, look at "new sanctions" from "old sanctions" In 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea, Western countries had already sanctioned Russia on a large scale. After eight years of ups and downs, Russia was able to carry it over. This trip dares to "send troops" to Ukraine, which shows that Russia is confident. Apart from military

The U.S. stock market has rebounded strongly since last week, when Fed officials warned that interest rate hikes would be slowed down.Will this week's Fed meeting on interest rates and non-agricultural data further benefit the market?​The focus of the current Fed meeting in November is not on how much to raise interest rates, but on the wording of officials and how much to increase in the future. At present, no one in the market believes that the Fed will dare to sacrifice the economy to raise interest rates to 6% (some economists have calculated the interest rate level needed to suppress inflation).If the non-agricultural data continues to improve and the stock market is not bad, it will be difficult to stop raising interest rates continuously, Therefore, the fluctuation back and forth is