As expected from last week’s outlook, after silver posted its first “top-and-drop” move, silver futures have staged another sharp rebound exactly one week later. As discussed previously, silver rarely tops out with a clean inverted-V reversal based on its historical price behavior; more commonly, it forms a second rebound on the weekly chart and only then peaks again and rolls over, and that second rebound often appears about one week after the first peak-and-selloff.Review: Can the trading distribution of silver futures options “leak” the future path for silver?$白银主连 2603(SImain)$ $微白银主连 2603(SILmain)$

$SGX(S68.SI)$ monthly data show that SGX FTSE China A50 Index Futures traded 496,023 lots in August, equivalent to roughly US$7.2 billion in notional value—up 66% year-on-year and the highest level in six months.SGX Group reports higher derivatives and securities volumes in August, up 11% and 17% y-o-y respectivelyThe surge coincides with reviving sentiment toward China and a global re-allocation into renminbi assets. As the most liquid offshore hedge for China A-shares, the A50 contract has become the go-to vehicle for asset managers, hedge funds and quant traders to express a “China view” quickly.Three demand-side driversA-share rebound opens a beta windowOfficial manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4 in August; Caixin PMI climbed back above 50, fuel

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $China A50 Index - main 2504(CNmain)$ Containing China Is Easy? The Limits of Traditional Trade Tactics Waging a trade war with China is anything but straightforward, and it’s something the Trump administration must come to terms with. When dealing with most nations, the threat of tariffs or financial sanctions is often enough to get compliance. But that playbook doesn’t work with China. It might inflict economic pain, but not enough to destabilize the entire system. The Real Impact of Tariffs Take tariffs, for example. Trump imposed a 20% levy on Chinese exports, followed by another 34%. But how much does that really impact China? In 2023, consumer electronics—China’s top export t

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $China A50 Index - main 2503(CNmain)$ Dollar System Great Escape We've often heard the familiar narrative that China is on the brink of economic collapse, but is that really the case? Despite these claims, we've seen a wave of innovation and industrial disruptions emerging from Beijing. China’s dominance in electric vehicles is undeniable, and then came the shock from DeepSeek, which sent tremors through U.S. Big Tech. Let’s not forget that either. On the financial front, Beijing is making strides to catch up, with its top priority being the creation of an independent financial system, decoupled from the West. And from China’s perspective, the risks of remaining tied t

$China A50 Index - main 2503(CNmain)$ $iShares MSCI China ETF(MCHI)$ The Chinese Yuan has just dropped to its lowest levels since 2008 against the US dollar. This decline began right after Donald Trump won the presidential election on November 6th. Following Trump's victory, the Yuan started weakening rapidly relative to the US dollar. Now that Trump is officially the new US president, investors are bracing for a potential trade war between the US and China. Trump has already announced plans to impose an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods, which could make them less competitive overnight, especially after decades of companies outsourcing production to China. Trump is attempting to bring business o

$CSOP NIKKEI225(03153)$ $China A50 Index - main 2501(CNmain)$ $iShares India 50 ETF(INDY)$ $Nifty India Financials ETF(INDF)$ As we look ahead to 2025, the investment landscape in China, India, and Japan presents unique opportunities and challenges. Here's a breakdown of the investment playbook for each country, taking into account their individual economic, political, and market dynamics: China: A Complex, Yet Potentially Rewarding Opportunity Key Themes: Shifting Investor Base: U.S. investors are reducing exposure to China, partly due to geopolitical tensions and regulatory changes. In contrast, domestic Chinese i

Tiger Introducing New Alpha is weekly hot tips for investing.Take a look at the key players of China's domestic AI scene: Incremental policies are anticipated to boost the performance of Chinese assets into 2025.Stay tuned and supercharge purchasing power with Cash Boost and Join telegram to win SGD10Historical New Alpha Stocks:💰Weekly New Alpha:DASH & BKNG Demonstrated Robust Performances $DoorDash, Inc.(DASH)$ $Booking Holdings(BKNG)$💰Unlock Home Field Advantages of E-commerce: SHOP vs SEA

Since July 2024, the renminbi has gradually started to rebound, with an increase of about 2.5%, thanks to US rate dropped. This has certainly relieved some pressure, allowing the Chinese government to breathe a sigh of relief as it no longer needs to spend huge amounts of money to stabilize the currency. Instead, it can redirect these funds to support the Chinese market, boost domestic demand, and stabilize the housing market and stock market. Let’s take a look at how China plans to stimulate its economy. Some describe the actions of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) as a sweeping wave of hope to prop up the economy. We need to examine their specific strategies and whether they will be effective. The PBOC has begun to lower the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates. Specifically, it

Firstly,On Wednesday, July 3, the US ADP research institute released a report showing that the number of ADP employment in the United States increased by 150,000 in June, significantly lower than the expected 165,000, and a slight decline from the previous value of 152,000.This is the third consecutive month that ADP employment has declined and the lowest level in four months.PicturesSecond,Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Wednesday showed that the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time in the week of June 29 in the United States was 238,000, exceeding market expectations of 235,000.The highest since January this year.PicturesAt the same time, data from the U.S. Department of Labor also showed that the number of people continuing to apply for u

Overnight, the much-anticipated Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting debuted. The Federal Reserve announced in the early hours of June 13, 2024, Beijing time that it would continue to maintain the target range for Federal Funds rate between 5.25% and 5.50%.This is the seventh consecutive time rates have been kept unchanged since September last year.The Fed's decision was in line with market expectations.Since March 2022, the Federal Reserve has conducted 11 rate hike, ranging from 25 basis points at the beginning to 50 basis points later, and 75 basis points for 4 consecutive times. After the subsequent rate hike gradually slowed down, so far rate hike has been suspended 7 times in a row, choosing to stay on hold. The market generally expects the Fed's next move to cut interest rat

At 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday, March 14th, the US Department of Labor released the PPI data for February, which exceeded expectations in terms of year-on-year, month-on-month and core PPI year-on-year data. Relaying the previous CPI data, it further continued to imply the stubbornness of inflation.Data show that the PPI of the United States warmed up beyond expectations in February, rising by 1.6% year-on-year, and the previous value was 1.2%.Far exceeding the expected 0.9%; PPI accelerated by 0.6% month-on-month,It is twice the expected value，The previous value is 0.3%.PictureThe core PPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 2% year-on-year, which was the same as the previous value.Exceeding expectations by 1.9%;The core PPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, which was less than th

According to CME "Federal Reserve Observation", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in March is 97.5%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 2.5%. By May, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 82.2%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 17.4%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 0.4%.PictureAs can be seen from the above figure, the current price of the futures market has expected that the Fed will stay put in March and May, and the time node when it is more likely to cut interest rates will be postponed until June this year,It is basically consistent with the expectations that the Fed wanted to guide before.On February 28th, at 21:30

After falling sharply below 3,000 points to reach around 2923, Shanghai index rebounded over the last few days and recovered to around 3017 points on Friday. For Shenzhen index, it recovered to around 9770 from 9373... All these are good signals isn't it? No to me, it is still not safe yet. Why? Shortsellers at the night time apac time last night continued to attack chinese stocks via A50 and hang Seng tech futures to shake the market off from crossing back into the region of strength... Hang Seng Tech futures are already down 1.6 percent and a50 dropped back down from 11995 to around 11885.. like what I had said yesterday on my twitter, china a50 has to cross back above 12k solidly... It was reported in financial news that China will hold a twice a decade work conference to focus on resol

If we see what has happened for A50, it is a pathetic picture. Since the reduction in stamp duty that led to Shanghai index jumping up over 5 percent and hitting above 3200 and A50 jumping above 13100 points, a50 quickly retraced.. now the benefit from price jump for A50 all the way from 12250 to 13100 has been fully eroded. $FTSE China A50 Index - Oct 2023(CN2310)$  $Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$  $Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$  $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$  Not only is it here, the breach of the support of 12250 and then 12100 and then 12000