The market did not take long to choose a short- to medium-term direction. Last week, gold and crypto assets both surged, making it clear that the market had entered a new phase of rebound. The previous trading logic can therefore be carried forward naturally, and risk assets are expected to remain resilient through the period before the fourth quarter. The only factor requiring particular caution is the speed of the advance. The logic chain of crypto assets—gold—risk assets changed slightly during last week’s trading. Following the news that the U.S. Treasury would purchase bonds, gold reacted most quickly. However, in terms of both absolute gains and the pace of appreciation, Bitcoin and Ethereum—whose volatility is inherently higher—soon staged a catch-up move and outperformed the earlie

While the market remained focused on the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike, the U.S. Treasury released a surprising announcement last week. The Treasury announced that it would “at least double” the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations for Treasury securities maturing in 10 to 30 years, raising the cap for each buyback from USD 2 billion to at least USD 4 billion. Relative to the USD 31 trillion U.S. Treasury market, this buyback volume is negligible. Nevertheless, the Treasury’s move conveyed several messages to the market. First, long-term bond yields are too high, and the Treasury intends to exert some control over them. Second, Treasury yields around 5% may represent a psychological threshold for the U.S. Treasury; if yields deviate too far from that level, more fo

Just this past Monday, the S&P 500 index successfully broke through its 20-day moving average, while the Nasdaq index solidly reclaimed its 20-week moving average. According to the technical rules I outlined previously, when these two critical indicators are breached simultaneously, we should pivot our stance to the upside in alignment with the trend. Sure enough, within just one day, both major indices surged another few percentage points, and the S&P 500 even came close to returning to its previous high, right where the initial drop began. Looking at this price action, I believe many are already declaring "the return of the king" for US equities, assuming the market has completely finished its shakeout and re-entered a primary uptrend. However, I must issue a warning: the current

After last week's CPI print, inflation expectations eased slightly, while the U.S.–Iran conflict flared up again and the previously-open strait was once more suspended. That said, this kind of escalation seems to occur almost every weekend, and by the time financial markets open it is quickly shrugged off—so I would not advise anyone to be overly anxious; wait until the market opens and it will speak for itself. Faced with this kind of murky, hard-to-read news flow, the best trading approach is to consider the technical indicators alone, and then set the corresponding strategy based on those indicators. Chart: CCTV News — “U.S.–Iran clashes hit civilian facilities across several countries; Iran warns of an all-out offensive” (reported July 19, 2026) I. U.S. equity indices have flipped shor

A recent string of mismatches between macro data and capital flows has revealed a new direction for the rotation across global asset classes. After deeply reviewing the latest non-farm payrolls (NFP) data, the U.S. Dollar Index, the yen's trajectory, and U.S. equity fund flows, I want to discuss a new trading thesis that may differ from what many people think: the pressure that a rising Dollar Index puts on global equities is not over. Bottom-fishing is not currently suitable for U.S. stocks, but it may be relatively suitable for U.S. Treasuries. Why do I say this? To sum up my current logic chain: although over the past week the Dollar Index staged a pullback at its major resistance around 101.3, judging from the performance of the yen — the dollar's second-largest counterpart — and the t

The current US financial market has flashed a very strong red warning signal: a strong dollar may return, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) is likely to experience a short-to-medium-term impulsive upward rally in the near future. From a technical perspective in the futures market, the DXY has broken through crucial resistance levels. Following the typical price action rules of a "head and shoulders bottom" pattern, the dollar's rise could mirror the previous decline in crude oil, triggering an impulsive upward trend of significant magnitude: $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund(UDN)$ $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund(UUP)$</

Last week’s macro framework is still working this week, and Trump has kicked off yet another farce: he floated the idea of purchasing Greenland from Europe and also imposed tariffs on eight European countries that opposed him.​ The situation has become even more turbulent.Why Trump Threatened 11 Countries in Just Two Weeks: The Dollar on the Edge Tells the StoryThis is almost certainly not the last step in Trump’s external provocation, but it is very likely an important move within his broader foreign strategy.​Today, let’s take a little time to briefly discuss the logic behind the Greenland dispute.First, one point must be clarified: why is Trump deliberately stirring trouble in his own “backyard”?​ One day it’s Venezu

As expected from last week’s outlook, after silver posted its first “top-and-drop” move, silver futures have staged another sharp rebound exactly one week later. As discussed previously, silver rarely tops out with a clean inverted-V reversal based on its historical price behavior; more commonly, it forms a second rebound on the weekly chart and only then peaks again and rolls over, and that second rebound often appears about one week after the first peak-and-selloff.Review: Can the trading distribution of silver futures options “leak” the future path for silver?$白银主连 2603(SImain)$ $微白银主连 2603(SILmain)$

$SGX(S68.SI)$ monthly data show that SGX FTSE China A50 Index Futures traded 496,023 lots in August, equivalent to roughly US$7.2 billion in notional value—up 66% year-on-year and the highest level in six months.SGX Group reports higher derivatives and securities volumes in August, up 11% and 17% y-o-y respectivelyThe surge coincides with reviving sentiment toward China and a global re-allocation into renminbi assets. As the most liquid offshore hedge for China A-shares, the A50 contract has become the go-to vehicle for asset managers, hedge funds and quant traders to express a “China view” quickly.Three demand-side driversA-share rebound opens a beta windowOfficial manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4 in August; Caixin PMI climbed back above 50, fuel

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $China A50 Index - main 2504(CNmain)$ Containing China Is Easy? The Limits of Traditional Trade Tactics Waging a trade war with China is anything but straightforward, and it’s something the Trump administration must come to terms with. When dealing with most nations, the threat of tariffs or financial sanctions is often enough to get compliance. But that playbook doesn’t work with China. It might inflict economic pain, but not enough to destabilize the entire system. The Real Impact of Tariffs Take tariffs, for example. Trump imposed a 20% levy on Chinese exports, followed by another 34%. But how much does that really impact China? In 2023, consumer electronics—China’s top export t

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $China A50 Index - main 2503(CNmain)$ Dollar System Great Escape We've often heard the familiar narrative that China is on the brink of economic collapse, but is that really the case? Despite these claims, we've seen a wave of innovation and industrial disruptions emerging from Beijing. China’s dominance in electric vehicles is undeniable, and then came the shock from DeepSeek, which sent tremors through U.S. Big Tech. Let’s not forget that either. On the financial front, Beijing is making strides to catch up, with its top priority being the creation of an independent financial system, decoupled from the West. And from China’s perspective, the risks of remaining tied t

$China A50 Index - main 2503(CNmain)$ $iShares MSCI China ETF(MCHI)$ The Chinese Yuan has just dropped to its lowest levels since 2008 against the US dollar. This decline began right after Donald Trump won the presidential election on November 6th. Following Trump's victory, the Yuan started weakening rapidly relative to the US dollar. Now that Trump is officially the new US president, investors are bracing for a potential trade war between the US and China. Trump has already announced plans to impose an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods, which could make them less competitive overnight, especially after decades of companies outsourcing production to China. Trump is attempting to bring business o

$CSOP NIKKEI225(03153)$ $China A50 Index - main 2501(CNmain)$ $iShares India 50 ETF(INDY)$ $Nifty India Financials ETF(INDF)$ As we look ahead to 2025, the investment landscape in China, India, and Japan presents unique opportunities and challenges. Here's a breakdown of the investment playbook for each country, taking into account their individual economic, political, and market dynamics: China: A Complex, Yet Potentially Rewarding Opportunity Key Themes: Shifting Investor Base: U.S. investors are reducing exposure to China, partly due to geopolitical tensions and regulatory changes. In contrast, domestic Chinese i

Tiger Introducing New Alpha is weekly hot tips for investing.Take a look at the key players of China's domestic AI scene: Incremental policies are anticipated to boost the performance of Chinese assets into 2025.Stay tuned and supercharge purchasing power with Cash Boost and Join telegram to win SGD10Historical New Alpha Stocks:💰Weekly New Alpha:DASH & BKNG Demonstrated Robust Performances $DoorDash, Inc.(DASH)$ $Booking Holdings(BKNG)$💰Unlock Home Field Advantages of E-commerce: SHOP vs SEA