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2023-04-03

[微笑]

油价重回百元不是梦！OPEC+意外减产后，市场又爆了

2023-03-05

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揭秘 | ChatGPT背后的35岁神秘教母，一手推火这个神级AI

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Blanch表示:“在一年的时间里，供需状况发生任何意外的100万桶/日变化，都会对油价造成每桶20至25美元的影响。”</p><p>他表示:“如果布伦特原油价格在每桶80美元以上交易，OPEC不再担心美国页岩油供应的重大反应，因此削减产量推高油价不会像五年前那样带来风险。”</p><p>他表示，尽管如此，目前尚不清楚计划中的减产有多少会落实到实际产量上，因为OPEC历史上一直未能完全实施商定的减产。美国银行维持布伦特原油在今年下半年超过每桶90美元的预测。</p><p><strong>花旗集团</strong></p><p>包括Ed Morse和Francesco Martoccia在内的花旗分析师表示:“OPEC+恢复了最近放弃的成为石油‘央行行长’的决定。”</p><p>他们表示：“考虑到极低的管理资金配置、低持仓利率和高波动性，市场可以预期价格会出现超调，就像美联储收紧政策和银行业动荡导致两周前的价格下跌幅度远远超过了应有的水平。”</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">加拿大皇家银行</a></strong></p><p>据包括Helima Croft和Christopher Louney在内的加拿大皇家银行资本市场分析师称，OPEC+的意外减产可能导致实际产量减少约70万桶/天，尽管新闻报道的数字约为165万桶/天。</p><p>不过，此举可以被解读为一个信号，即沙特阿拉伯及其OPEC伙伴将寻求阻止进一步的宏观抛售。他们认为，沙特明确表达了对美联储激进行动、宏观不确定性以及市场过度看空倾向的担忧。</p><p><strong>澳新银行</strong></p><p>澳新银行高级大宗商品策略师Daniel Hynes表示，在这些措施出台后，油价在年底前达到100美元的可能性“肯定增加了”。</p><p>他表示:“和市场上的其他人一样，我对这一举动感到非常惊讶。”“这项措施确实向市场发出了一个非常强烈的信号，即他们将支持油价。”</p><p><strong>澳大利亚联邦银行</strong></p><p>澳大利亚联邦银行矿业和能源大宗商品研究主管Vivek Dhar表示，OPEC+宣布的减产将“占未来两个月全球供应量的1.1%左右，占今年下半年全球供应量的1.6%左右”。</p><p>他补充说，计划减产的8个国家确实有能力这样做。Dhar表示:“因此，每天减产超过100万桶可以成为现实。”“人们应该关注这些削减，因为它们实际上是可以实现的。”</p><p><strong>瑞典北欧斯安银行</strong></p><p>瑞典北欧斯安银行首席大宗商品分析师Bjarne Schieldrop表示:“随着美国石油产量增长放缓，市场份额被美国页岩油抢走的风险有限，因此OPEC+很容易削减产量。”“美国页岩油增长放缓的自然结果是，OPEC+的市场力量更大，油价更高。”</p><p>他表示，随着全球航空燃油需求复苏，减产将有助于推动布伦特原油更快回到每桶100美元的水平。</p><p>Schieldrop之前曾认为，OPEC仍有进一步减产的巨大空间。他表示：“即使在最近的减产之后，这一点仍然成立。其结果是，油价下行风险有限。”</p><p><strong>Vanda Insights</strong></p><p>新加坡石油咨询公司Vanda Insights创始人Vandana Hari表示:“此举可能会使市场在第二季度出现供应短缺，而不是此前预期的供应过剩。”</p><p>她补充称:“油价上涨可能会抑制部分原油需求，并加剧各大央行试图遏制的顽固通胀，增加衰退风险。”</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n油价重回百元不是梦！OPEC+意外减产后，市场又爆了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-03 14:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/905410.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>OPEC+削减石油产量的决定令市场大吃一惊，因为该组织领导人沙特阿拉伯早些时候曾表示将按兵不动。此举重新点燃了人们对通胀和经济衰退的担忧。美国白宫称，在目前的市场条件下，OPEC+的决定是不明智的，并补充说，美国将与生产者和消费者合作，重点关注美国的汽油价格。市场对OPEC+减产迅速做出反应。周一布伦特原油价格一度飙升8%。美国两年期国债收益率跃升7个基点，至4.10%，而基准10年期国债收益率...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/905410.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/783b90f4f58142af1f2aa989e35dc732","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/905410.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2324832862","content_text":"OPEC+削减石油产量的决定令市场大吃一惊，因为该组织领导人沙特阿拉伯早些时候曾表示将按兵不动。此举重新点燃了人们对通胀和经济衰退的担忧。美国白宫称，在目前的市场条件下，OPEC+的决定是不明智的，并补充说，美国将与生产者和消费者合作，重点关注美国的汽油价格。市场对OPEC+减产迅速做出反应。周一布伦特原油价格一度飙升8%。美国两年期国债收益率跃升7个基点，至4.10%，而基准10年期国债收益率攀升5个基点，至3.52%。美元现货指数上涨0.2%，为连续第二天上涨，反映出市场押注美联储将进一步加息。以下是分析人士对OPEC+减产的看法：高盛Daan Struyven和Callum Bruce等高盛分析师表示:“与过去相比，OPEC+拥有非常强大的定价权。”“OPEC+意外减产符合他们先发制人的新原则，因为他们可以在不大幅损失市场份额的情况下采取行动。”再加上俄罗斯延长减产，这家华尔街巨头将今年12月的布伦特原油预测从此前的每桶90美元上调至95美元，并将2024年12月的价格预测上调至100美元。高盛补充称，与去年10月OPEC+减产不同，由于中国需求强劲复苏和炼油利润率坚挺，全球石油需求的势头是积极的。美国银行美国银行大宗商品和衍生品研究主管Francisco Blanch表示:“在一年的时间里，供需状况发生任何意外的100万桶/日变化，都会对油价造成每桶20至25美元的影响。”他表示:“如果布伦特原油价格在每桶80美元以上交易，OPEC不再担心美国页岩油供应的重大反应，因此削减产量推高油价不会像五年前那样带来风险。”他表示，尽管如此，目前尚不清楚计划中的减产有多少会落实到实际产量上，因为OPEC历史上一直未能完全实施商定的减产。美国银行维持布伦特原油在今年下半年超过每桶90美元的预测。花旗集团包括Ed Morse和Francesco Martoccia在内的花旗分析师表示:“OPEC+恢复了最近放弃的成为石油‘央行行长’的决定。”他们表示：“考虑到极低的管理资金配置、低持仓利率和高波动性，市场可以预期价格会出现超调，就像美联储收紧政策和银行业动荡导致两周前的价格下跌幅度远远超过了应有的水平。”加拿大皇家银行据包括Helima Croft和Christopher Louney在内的加拿大皇家银行资本市场分析师称，OPEC+的意外减产可能导致实际产量减少约70万桶/天，尽管新闻报道的数字约为165万桶/天。不过，此举可以被解读为一个信号，即沙特阿拉伯及其OPEC伙伴将寻求阻止进一步的宏观抛售。他们认为，沙特明确表达了对美联储激进行动、宏观不确定性以及市场过度看空倾向的担忧。澳新银行澳新银行高级大宗商品策略师Daniel Hynes表示，在这些措施出台后，油价在年底前达到100美元的可能性“肯定增加了”。他表示:“和市场上的其他人一样，我对这一举动感到非常惊讶。”“这项措施确实向市场发出了一个非常强烈的信号，即他们将支持油价。”澳大利亚联邦银行澳大利亚联邦银行矿业和能源大宗商品研究主管Vivek Dhar表示，OPEC+宣布的减产将“占未来两个月全球供应量的1.1%左右，占今年下半年全球供应量的1.6%左右”。他补充说，计划减产的8个国家确实有能力这样做。Dhar表示:“因此，每天减产超过100万桶可以成为现实。”“人们应该关注这些削减，因为它们实际上是可以实现的。”瑞典北欧斯安银行瑞典北欧斯安银行首席大宗商品分析师Bjarne Schieldrop表示:“随着美国石油产量增长放缓，市场份额被美国页岩油抢走的风险有限，因此OPEC+很容易削减产量。”“美国页岩油增长放缓的自然结果是，OPEC+的市场力量更大，油价更高。”他表示，随着全球航空燃油需求复苏，减产将有助于推动布伦特原油更快回到每桶100美元的水平。Schieldrop之前曾认为，OPEC仍有进一步减产的巨大空间。他表示：“即使在最近的减产之后，这一点仍然成立。其结果是，油价下行风险有限。”Vanda Insights新加坡石油咨询公司Vanda Insights创始人Vandana Hari表示:“此举可能会使市场在第二季度出现供应短缺，而不是此前预期的供应过剩。”她补充称:“油价上涨可能会抑制部分原油需求，并加剧各大央行试图遏制的顽固通胀，增加衰退风险。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940531648,"gmtCreate":1678021636084,"gmtModify":1678021639429,"author":{"id":"3584267972657287","authorId":"3584267972657287","authorIdStr":"3584267972657287","name":"财米游言","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1516ab44d3460e0b97830666a8c1a44","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584267972657287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940531648","repostId":"1157059208","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157059208","pubTimestamp":1677977343,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157059208?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-05 08:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"揭秘 | ChatGPT背后的35岁神秘教母，一手推火这个神级AI","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157059208","media":"新智元","summary":"ChatGPT诞生的背后，还有一个重要的女性首席技术官。最近几周，随着ChatGPT的爆火，她也开始走进媒体的视野。当OpenAI在2022年11月下旬忽然决定推出ChatGPT时，员工们都惊呆了。当","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>ChatGPT诞生的背后，还有一个重要的女性首席技术官。最近几周，随着ChatGPT的爆火，她也开始走进媒体的视野。</p><p>当OpenAI在2022年11月下旬忽然决定推出ChatGPT时，员工们都惊呆了。</p><p>当时在研发GPT-4的员工，忽然被下令把已经GPT-3.5包装一下，尽快做成一个聊天机器人。</p><p>几天后，ChatGPT零宣传地上线了，员工们没有抱任何期望，然而几十天内ChatGPT仿佛滚雪球一般，在全世界开启了病毒式的传播。</p><p>而媒体们，一直在深挖着这个顶流AI诞生的幕后故事。</p><p>最近，他们发现了OpenAI的35岁CTO，ChatGPT教母——Mira Murati。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9bdc06b3174f8075b25aac312253b3\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>这些天，媒体的聚光灯从ChatGPT之父Sam Altman，转移到了Mira Murati身上。</p><p>尤其是外媒这两个月来对于她的频繁报道，分外惹人注目。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fe30d80bdf9b1fb000b057642a628df\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>但她又是如此神秘，竟然连维基百科的主页都没有。</p><p>不可否认的是，她现在已经成为科技界最有影响力的人物之一。而她能走到这一步，绝不是偶然。</p><p><b>OpenAI神秘的CTO</b></p><p>据网上流传的信息，Mira Murati出生于一个阿尔巴尼亚高中教师家庭，之后在达特茅斯学院取得了机械工程学士学位。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0649b0894fa8c965ca8b2e7904b4ac3e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2013年，Murati正式加入特斯拉，负责Model X的开发。</p><p>也就是在这一年，她对AI产生了兴趣。</p><p>当时，特斯拉正在研发人工智能驾驶辅助软件Autopilot的早期版本，还在为工厂开发人工智能机器人。这使Murati开始考虑其他现实世界的应用。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c70d9c20303a041ab9c844aed3e17d9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>之后，Murati在Leap Motion担任了两年的产品和工程副总裁。</p><p>Leap Motion是一家软件和硬件公司，它生产的控制器，使用户能够在与PC或Mac连接时，用手部动作操纵数字对象。</p><p>在Murati在Leap Motion任职期间，该公司推出了为VR的手部追踪而设计的新软件。</p><p>作为产品和工程副总裁，她希望能用户与电脑的互动可以「像玩球一样直观」。但她很快意识到，基于VR的技术还没能被大众所接受。</p><p>Murati仔细考虑了自己下一步该怎么办，她得出的结论是，「技术的巨大进步」必须用来解决世界上最大的挑战。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5562838d8fc455dd5efa61dcf04475f4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"582\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2018年，Murati加入了OpenAI，担任应用人工智能和合作伙伴关系的副总裁。</p><p>此时，OpenAI已经加紧了步调，制定了一份比当前的实力更有野心的计划。</p><p>2019年，OpenAI从非营利组织转变为营利组织。</p><p>随后，Murati步步高升，成为OpenAI产品和合作伙伴关系的高级副总裁。</p><p>在10个月前，她成为首席技术官。</p><p>自打Murati被任命为首席技术官以后，OpenAI就发布了一些最热门的明星AI产品，比如DALL-E 2和ChatGPT。</p><p>这些产品也让全世界对OpenAI刮目相看，所有人都认识到：OpenAI的技术可以给世界创造不可想象的经济价值。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cff9de68f7a8775aa5257203694e214\" tg-width=\"760\" tg-height=\"1050\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2月24日，OpenAI CEO、ChatGPT之父Sam Altman发布了AGI路线图，确保AGI造福全人类，目标直指超级智能世界。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5d2faf522f1ab02d4433ad731833158\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>毫无疑问，如果通用人工智能 (AGI)——人类水平的人工智能真的实现，世界经济可能会在一夜之间发生天翻地覆的变化，而紧随其后的是，社会结构、政治制度甚至国际权力格局的根本变化。</p><p>显然，目前人们探讨的ChatGPT可能对人类社会造成的颠覆性影响，并未夸张。</p><p>而Murati能够让自己走进OpenAI，成为具有影响全世界力量的人，走出的每一步，都不是随意的。</p><p><b>一步步，走向巅峰</b></p><p>在Leap Motion任职期间，Murati深刻地意识到VR还未被大众接受，为了找寻解决世界上最大挑战的技术，她于2018年加入了OpenAI。</p><p>这一次，她绝对没有选错。</p><p>在OpenAI，她找到了许多志同道合的人，他们有着和她共同的信念——AGI将成为改变全世界的技术。</p><p>在这里，Murati发现了一个不断变化的组织。这个世界上最好的人工智能实验室，正在利用互联网规模的数据量和定制的超级计算机来训练他们的模型，他们的蛮力方法正在产生结果。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/762c752072b406ec751e5f550c447609\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>起初，OpenAI的规模虽小，但团队在不断壮大。他们意识到，公司需要的算力越来越昂贵。商业化既是经济上的需要，也是让他们的技术了解世界的途径。</p><p>2019年，这家非营利组织将自身重组为营利性初创公司，母公司为非营利组织，任命前Y Combinator总裁Sam Altman担任首席执行官。他不负众望，很快从微软筹集了10亿美元。</p><p>随着OpenAI开始新的征程，Murati担任了应用人工智能和合作伙伴关系的副总裁。</p><p>OpenAI面临着大语言模型（或者说在神经网络上处理和生成文本的算法）的核心问题，按照OpenAI的竞争对手、Stable Diffusion的研发副总裁Patrick Hebron的说法，大语言模型就像被密封的天才。</p><p>打个比方，莫扎特并不是莫扎特，直到有人递给他一件乐器。</p><p>同样的，OpenAI的基础语言模型虽然具有巨大的潜能，但还需要在外部合作伙伴的帮助下，才能以更快的速度曝光。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fd1ee5e45d29906baf74182f1e0d02f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>与此同时，其他的AI实验室也在探索如何用大规模语言模型来开发产品。比如Google Duplex，一种能帮人打电话预约的、语音机器人版本的谷歌助手。</p><p>相比起来，OpenAI更多的精力是在如何让模型更好地符合人类意图。（谷歌后来的失败，在这里就埋下了伏笔。）</p><p>此时，Murati也被提升为研究监督总管，她发现自己正处于这项工作的核心。</p><p>具体来说，要想实现真正的「Chat」GPT，OpenAI就需要让模型理解人类对话的价值。很多语言都是主观的：什么歌曲算好听？什么餐厅算高档？没有人类的反馈，语言模型就很难理解这些概念，更不用说听懂玩笑了。</p><p>为了向GPT传递这些人类的价值观，OpenAI做了一系列的努力。它雇佣承包商，来评估GPT的输出，并编写出更好的输出，同时也让OpenAI自己的员工做同样的事。</p><p>它发现合作伙伴愿意分享他们的实验数据。它建立了一个安全操作，试图预测用户可能破坏系统的方式。然后将来自所有这些过程的数据，反馈到一个可以位于语言模型之上的算法层。</p><p>最后一步，就是在系统上创建一个搜索栏界面，并将其命名为ChatGPT，这一步是最容易的。</p><p>就这样，时下最火爆的当红顶流语言模型诞生了。用Murati的话说，他们得到了一个聊天机器人，它「更可能做你想让它做的事情」。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce84bd31e958f93db0a3884de44c593f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Greylock采访：斯坦福HAI联合主任李飞飞博士和OpenAI首席技术官Mira Murati</p><p>但ChatGPT也仅仅只是一个开始。</p><p>OpenAI 拥有多样化的应用程序组合，从一开始，OpenAI就设计了广泛的产品组合。</p><p>「我们想要做出Dall-E的原因之一，就是为了更深入地了解世界，让这些模型以我们的方式了解世界，」Murati 说。</p><p>在她看来，多模态学习（即包含文本、图像、音频、视频甚至机器人技术的学习）训练的人工智能模型，就是实现长期突破的关键点。</p><p>而诀窍就是，将这些未来的计划与此时此地的产品联系起来。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12711d5734bfca31fa69c666c9eaaea8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>出席GIRL GEEK X举办的活动</p><p>与谷歌严捂自己的AI研究不同，显然，Murati热衷于与公众测试这些产品。</p><p>「你可以在没有现实世界接触的情况下在真空中取得技术进步。但接下来的问题是，你真的在朝着正确的方向前进吗？」</p><p>在Murati看来，如果仅在实验室范围内构建AGI，它出现后造成的社会冲击会更加令人不安。</p><p>而通过强化学习和人类反馈来调节大语言模型，是解决AGI未来挑战最有效的方法，也是让公众参与对话的一种方式。</p><p>另外，尽管Murati对OpenAI 的能力充满信心，但她似乎并不像CEO Sam Altman那样，经常谈起AGI产生意识之类的科幻故事来制造头条新闻。</p><p>在Murati看来，意识是一种哲学思想，而不是科学思想。</p><p>Murati想重新设想图灵测试，以确定计算机是否可以像人类一样思考，承担广泛的认知任务。</p><p>但最重要的是，她希望OpenAI的系统能够向真实的人类学习。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b3a4aa092e8cd45db2378fc80b59490\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>关于Murati的个人信息，我们目前只知道她是科幻经典《2001：太空漫游》、诗人Rainer Maria Rilke和摇滚乐队Radiohead的粉丝</p><p><b>必应的三种人格，也有她的贡献</b></p><p>昨天，广大用户发现，必应AI忽然有三种「人格」可供选择：创造性、平衡性和精确性。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c217484dc8e950fb6d6b29a1f21746\" tg-width=\"738\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>这背后，也有着Murati等OpenAI员工的推动。</p><p>根据Fast Company的报道，在OpenAI的旧金山总部，ChatGPT背后的六人领导团队每周都会聚集在一起开例会。</p><p>在1月底的一个早晨，例会的第一个问题就是——团队该如何让ChatGPT在回答中平衡准确性和创造性。</p><p>Murati作为CTO在例会上第一个发言，询问了团队对于ChatGPT的准确性与其想象力之间的相关性了解多少。</p><p>前粒子物理学家和谷歌大脑科学家、现OpenAI研究人员Liam Fedus表示，「越来越多的证据表明，我们的基础模型在创意写作方面很有才华，但由于OpenAI在某种程度上转向了一个更有用的模型，也许已经让它失去了一些能力。」</p><p>Murati认真听着回答，记着笔记，计划在未来几周展开测试模型准确性与创造力的新实验。</p><p>这条调查线，影响的是数十亿美元和数百万个工作岗位。</p><p>如果不能证明ChatGPT的可信度，OpenAI作为硅谷几十年来最有前途初创公司的地位，就可能受到威胁。</p><p>如今我们可以看到，类ChatGPT模型整合进微软的必应之后，也在真实的市场反馈中一步步试探和摸索着产品的路线。</p><p><b>ChatGPT火了之后</b></p><p>此前，Murati很少走到台前，但是随着最近AIGC的爆火，OpenAI成为了引领时代潮流的一个符号，Murati也更多地出现在了公众的视野中。</p><p>早在四个月前，她就出现在崔娃的「The Daily Show」上，讨论这些强大的AI工具可能给人类造成的影响。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b5d2bb038ee7add5930504c4137838b\" tg-width=\"1079\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>在2021年，OpenAI聘请了ML研究员Jan Leike，他现在领导着一个对齐团队，标志着他们更加关注人类反馈强化学习（RLHF）的训练。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffad378a6e4164d4caeba766a42a06b1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>在推特上，Murati一直与Leike有着密切的互动，他们还讨论了在训练AI模型期间纳入反馈的重要性。</p><p>早在八个月前与CogX的讨论中，Murati就解释说：「我们希望这些模型遵循我们的明确指令，但我们也希望它们遵循我们隐含的指令，所以我们不希望它们产生任何刻板印象，或产生有毒的反应。我们希望它们大致上能与我们想要的东西保持一致，这可能是相当模糊的。为了达到这个目标，我们需要在循环中对模型进行人工反馈，使意图更加清晰。」</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57e0ed498b4602ac7b3fa82f846ab9b9\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"731\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>也是在那次讨论中，她盛赞了AI带来的进步，但也坦率地承认，自己不知道AI工具是否会取代人类。</p><p>「我们不确定AGI是不是会完全取代我们，或帮助我们正在做的事情。现在还不清楚，人类的工作以后会发生什么变化，经济体系又会变成什么样子。」</p><p>「但是总体上，我认为AI会给人类带来非常积极的影响，因为它可以解决现实世界中非常困难的问题，比如应对气候变化，或者治疗疑难杂症。」</p><p>在崔娃的「The Daily Show」中，Murati却采取了一种更不置可否的态度，称OpenAI的应用程序为「人类的帮手」，会变成「社会塑造它们」的样子。</p><p>OpenAI CEO兼创始人Sam Altman在谈及ChatGPT相关的道德问题时，态度也是同样模糊。</p><p>而Murati也承认，「AGI对人类会有什么确切影响这种问题」太大、太开放了，她现在还无法回答。</p><p>而最近接受《时代》杂志采访时，Murati也呼吁，政策制定者应该开始监管AI了。</p><p>「对于OpenAI和同类的公司来说，以一种可控和负责任的方式将AI带入公众意识是很重要的。但我们是一个小团体，我们需要在这个系统中获得更多的投入，以及更多超越技术的投入，比如监管者、政府以及其他所有力量。」</p><p>现在，OpenAI的下一个大型语言模型GPT-4也在准备推出了，显然，它可能会和ChatGPT吸引到同样的关注，甚至更多，不过，Murati认为，对此「少一些炒作会更好」。</p><p>但毫无疑问，Murati和她的团队接下来的每一步，都会继续搅动这个世界。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1569730104218","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>揭秘 | ChatGPT背后的35岁神秘教母，一手推火这个神级AI</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n揭秘 | ChatGPT背后的35岁神秘教母，一手推火这个神级AI\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-05 08:49 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://36kr.com/p/2156705553276680><strong>新智元</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ChatGPT诞生的背后，还有一个重要的女性首席技术官。最近几周，随着ChatGPT的爆火，她也开始走进媒体的视野。当OpenAI在2022年11月下旬忽然决定推出ChatGPT时，员工们都惊呆了。当时在研发GPT-4的员工，忽然被下令把已经GPT-3.5包装一下，尽快做成一个聊天机器人。几天后，ChatGPT零宣传地上线了，员工们没有抱任何期望，然而几十天内ChatGPT仿佛滚雪球一般，在全世界...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://36kr.com/p/2156705553276680\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9bdc06b3174f8075b25aac312253b3","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://36kr.com/p/2156705553276680","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157059208","content_text":"ChatGPT诞生的背后，还有一个重要的女性首席技术官。最近几周，随着ChatGPT的爆火，她也开始走进媒体的视野。当OpenAI在2022年11月下旬忽然决定推出ChatGPT时，员工们都惊呆了。当时在研发GPT-4的员工，忽然被下令把已经GPT-3.5包装一下，尽快做成一个聊天机器人。几天后，ChatGPT零宣传地上线了，员工们没有抱任何期望，然而几十天内ChatGPT仿佛滚雪球一般，在全世界开启了病毒式的传播。而媒体们，一直在深挖着这个顶流AI诞生的幕后故事。最近，他们发现了OpenAI的35岁CTO，ChatGPT教母——Mira Murati。这些天，媒体的聚光灯从ChatGPT之父Sam Altman，转移到了Mira Murati身上。尤其是外媒这两个月来对于她的频繁报道，分外惹人注目。但她又是如此神秘，竟然连维基百科的主页都没有。不可否认的是，她现在已经成为科技界最有影响力的人物之一。而她能走到这一步，绝不是偶然。OpenAI神秘的CTO据网上流传的信息，Mira Murati出生于一个阿尔巴尼亚高中教师家庭，之后在达特茅斯学院取得了机械工程学士学位。2013年，Murati正式加入特斯拉，负责Model X的开发。也就是在这一年，她对AI产生了兴趣。当时，特斯拉正在研发人工智能驾驶辅助软件Autopilot的早期版本，还在为工厂开发人工智能机器人。这使Murati开始考虑其他现实世界的应用。之后，Murati在Leap Motion担任了两年的产品和工程副总裁。Leap Motion是一家软件和硬件公司，它生产的控制器，使用户能够在与PC或Mac连接时，用手部动作操纵数字对象。在Murati在Leap Motion任职期间，该公司推出了为VR的手部追踪而设计的新软件。作为产品和工程副总裁，她希望能用户与电脑的互动可以「像玩球一样直观」。但她很快意识到，基于VR的技术还没能被大众所接受。Murati仔细考虑了自己下一步该怎么办，她得出的结论是，「技术的巨大进步」必须用来解决世界上最大的挑战。2018年，Murati加入了OpenAI，担任应用人工智能和合作伙伴关系的副总裁。此时，OpenAI已经加紧了步调，制定了一份比当前的实力更有野心的计划。2019年，OpenAI从非营利组织转变为营利组织。随后，Murati步步高升，成为OpenAI产品和合作伙伴关系的高级副总裁。在10个月前，她成为首席技术官。自打Murati被任命为首席技术官以后，OpenAI就发布了一些最热门的明星AI产品，比如DALL-E 2和ChatGPT。这些产品也让全世界对OpenAI刮目相看，所有人都认识到：OpenAI的技术可以给世界创造不可想象的经济价值。2月24日，OpenAI CEO、ChatGPT之父Sam Altman发布了AGI路线图，确保AGI造福全人类，目标直指超级智能世界。毫无疑问，如果通用人工智能 (AGI)——人类水平的人工智能真的实现，世界经济可能会在一夜之间发生天翻地覆的变化，而紧随其后的是，社会结构、政治制度甚至国际权力格局的根本变化。显然，目前人们探讨的ChatGPT可能对人类社会造成的颠覆性影响，并未夸张。而Murati能够让自己走进OpenAI，成为具有影响全世界力量的人，走出的每一步，都不是随意的。一步步，走向巅峰在Leap Motion任职期间，Murati深刻地意识到VR还未被大众接受，为了找寻解决世界上最大挑战的技术，她于2018年加入了OpenAI。这一次，她绝对没有选错。在OpenAI，她找到了许多志同道合的人，他们有着和她共同的信念——AGI将成为改变全世界的技术。在这里，Murati发现了一个不断变化的组织。这个世界上最好的人工智能实验室，正在利用互联网规模的数据量和定制的超级计算机来训练他们的模型，他们的蛮力方法正在产生结果。起初，OpenAI的规模虽小，但团队在不断壮大。他们意识到，公司需要的算力越来越昂贵。商业化既是经济上的需要，也是让他们的技术了解世界的途径。2019年，这家非营利组织将自身重组为营利性初创公司，母公司为非营利组织，任命前Y Combinator总裁Sam Altman担任首席执行官。他不负众望，很快从微软筹集了10亿美元。随着OpenAI开始新的征程，Murati担任了应用人工智能和合作伙伴关系的副总裁。OpenAI面临着大语言模型（或者说在神经网络上处理和生成文本的算法）的核心问题，按照OpenAI的竞争对手、Stable Diffusion的研发副总裁Patrick Hebron的说法，大语言模型就像被密封的天才。打个比方，莫扎特并不是莫扎特，直到有人递给他一件乐器。同样的，OpenAI的基础语言模型虽然具有巨大的潜能，但还需要在外部合作伙伴的帮助下，才能以更快的速度曝光。与此同时，其他的AI实验室也在探索如何用大规模语言模型来开发产品。比如Google Duplex，一种能帮人打电话预约的、语音机器人版本的谷歌助手。相比起来，OpenAI更多的精力是在如何让模型更好地符合人类意图。（谷歌后来的失败，在这里就埋下了伏笔。）此时，Murati也被提升为研究监督总管，她发现自己正处于这项工作的核心。具体来说，要想实现真正的「Chat」GPT，OpenAI就需要让模型理解人类对话的价值。很多语言都是主观的：什么歌曲算好听？什么餐厅算高档？没有人类的反馈，语言模型就很难理解这些概念，更不用说听懂玩笑了。为了向GPT传递这些人类的价值观，OpenAI做了一系列的努力。它雇佣承包商，来评估GPT的输出，并编写出更好的输出，同时也让OpenAI自己的员工做同样的事。它发现合作伙伴愿意分享他们的实验数据。它建立了一个安全操作，试图预测用户可能破坏系统的方式。然后将来自所有这些过程的数据，反馈到一个可以位于语言模型之上的算法层。最后一步，就是在系统上创建一个搜索栏界面，并将其命名为ChatGPT，这一步是最容易的。就这样，时下最火爆的当红顶流语言模型诞生了。用Murati的话说，他们得到了一个聊天机器人，它「更可能做你想让它做的事情」。Greylock采访：斯坦福HAI联合主任李飞飞博士和OpenAI首席技术官Mira Murati但ChatGPT也仅仅只是一个开始。OpenAI 拥有多样化的应用程序组合，从一开始，OpenAI就设计了广泛的产品组合。「我们想要做出Dall-E的原因之一，就是为了更深入地了解世界，让这些模型以我们的方式了解世界，」Murati 说。在她看来，多模态学习（即包含文本、图像、音频、视频甚至机器人技术的学习）训练的人工智能模型，就是实现长期突破的关键点。而诀窍就是，将这些未来的计划与此时此地的产品联系起来。出席GIRL GEEK X举办的活动与谷歌严捂自己的AI研究不同，显然，Murati热衷于与公众测试这些产品。「你可以在没有现实世界接触的情况下在真空中取得技术进步。但接下来的问题是，你真的在朝着正确的方向前进吗？」在Murati看来，如果仅在实验室范围内构建AGI，它出现后造成的社会冲击会更加令人不安。而通过强化学习和人类反馈来调节大语言模型，是解决AGI未来挑战最有效的方法，也是让公众参与对话的一种方式。另外，尽管Murati对OpenAI 的能力充满信心，但她似乎并不像CEO Sam Altman那样，经常谈起AGI产生意识之类的科幻故事来制造头条新闻。在Murati看来，意识是一种哲学思想，而不是科学思想。Murati想重新设想图灵测试，以确定计算机是否可以像人类一样思考，承担广泛的认知任务。但最重要的是，她希望OpenAI的系统能够向真实的人类学习。关于Murati的个人信息，我们目前只知道她是科幻经典《2001：太空漫游》、诗人Rainer Maria Rilke和摇滚乐队Radiohead的粉丝必应的三种人格，也有她的贡献昨天，广大用户发现，必应AI忽然有三种「人格」可供选择：创造性、平衡性和精确性。这背后，也有着Murati等OpenAI员工的推动。根据Fast Company的报道，在OpenAI的旧金山总部，ChatGPT背后的六人领导团队每周都会聚集在一起开例会。在1月底的一个早晨，例会的第一个问题就是——团队该如何让ChatGPT在回答中平衡准确性和创造性。Murati作为CTO在例会上第一个发言，询问了团队对于ChatGPT的准确性与其想象力之间的相关性了解多少。前粒子物理学家和谷歌大脑科学家、现OpenAI研究人员Liam Fedus表示，「越来越多的证据表明，我们的基础模型在创意写作方面很有才华，但由于OpenAI在某种程度上转向了一个更有用的模型，也许已经让它失去了一些能力。」Murati认真听着回答，记着笔记，计划在未来几周展开测试模型准确性与创造力的新实验。这条调查线，影响的是数十亿美元和数百万个工作岗位。如果不能证明ChatGPT的可信度，OpenAI作为硅谷几十年来最有前途初创公司的地位，就可能受到威胁。如今我们可以看到，类ChatGPT模型整合进微软的必应之后，也在真实的市场反馈中一步步试探和摸索着产品的路线。ChatGPT火了之后此前，Murati很少走到台前，但是随着最近AIGC的爆火，OpenAI成为了引领时代潮流的一个符号，Murati也更多地出现在了公众的视野中。早在四个月前，她就出现在崔娃的「The Daily Show」上，讨论这些强大的AI工具可能给人类造成的影响。在2021年，OpenAI聘请了ML研究员Jan Leike，他现在领导着一个对齐团队，标志着他们更加关注人类反馈强化学习（RLHF）的训练。在推特上，Murati一直与Leike有着密切的互动，他们还讨论了在训练AI模型期间纳入反馈的重要性。早在八个月前与CogX的讨论中，Murati就解释说：「我们希望这些模型遵循我们的明确指令，但我们也希望它们遵循我们隐含的指令，所以我们不希望它们产生任何刻板印象，或产生有毒的反应。我们希望它们大致上能与我们想要的东西保持一致，这可能是相当模糊的。为了达到这个目标，我们需要在循环中对模型进行人工反馈，使意图更加清晰。」也是在那次讨论中，她盛赞了AI带来的进步，但也坦率地承认，自己不知道AI工具是否会取代人类。「我们不确定AGI是不是会完全取代我们，或帮助我们正在做的事情。现在还不清楚，人类的工作以后会发生什么变化，经济体系又会变成什么样子。」「但是总体上，我认为AI会给人类带来非常积极的影响，因为它可以解决现实世界中非常困难的问题，比如应对气候变化，或者治疗疑难杂症。」在崔娃的「The Daily Show」中，Murati却采取了一种更不置可否的态度，称OpenAI的应用程序为「人类的帮手」，会变成「社会塑造它们」的样子。OpenAI CEO兼创始人Sam Altman在谈及ChatGPT相关的道德问题时，态度也是同样模糊。而Murati也承认，「AGI对人类会有什么确切影响这种问题」太大、太开放了，她现在还无法回答。而最近接受《时代》杂志采访时，Murati也呼吁，政策制定者应该开始监管AI了。「对于OpenAI和同类的公司来说，以一种可控和负责任的方式将AI带入公众意识是很重要的。但我们是一个小团体，我们需要在这个系统中获得更多的投入，以及更多超越技术的投入，比如监管者、政府以及其他所有力量。」现在，OpenAI的下一个大型语言模型GPT-4也在准备推出了，显然，它可能会和ChatGPT吸引到同样的关注，甚至更多，不过，Murati认为，对此「少一些炒作会更好」。但毫无疑问，Murati和她的团队接下来的每一步，都会继续搅动这个世界。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":316,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920974556,"gmtCreate":1670426644775,"gmtModify":1676538365758,"author":{"id":"3584267972657287","authorId":"3584267972657287","authorIdStr":"3584267972657287","name":"财米游言","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1516ab44d3460e0b97830666a8c1a44","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584267972657287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Black story&nbsp;","listText":"Black story&nbsp;","text":"Black 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