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财米游言

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2025-06-25

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2022-12-07

Black story

Blackstone was run wildly: another big financial thunder

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story&nbsp;","listText":"Black story&nbsp;","text":"Black story","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920974556","repostId":"1132239927","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132239927","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇投资学苑","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c"},"pubTimestamp":1670414482,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1132239927?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-07 20:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Blackstone was run wildly: another big financial thunder","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132239927","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"威力有多大？黑石集团，新世纪华尔街之王，坐拥近万亿美元资产，全球最大的私募股权基金和资产管理公司。它在全球金融江湖呼风唤雨，不可一世。黑石的老板是史蒂芬.斯瓦茨曼，土生土长的犹太裔美国人。他给自己起了","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>How powerful is it?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">Blackstone</a>Group, the king of Wall Street in the new century, sits on nearly a trillion dollars of assets, the world's largest private equity fund and asset management company. It is arrogant in the global financial arena.</p><p>Blackstone is owned by Stephen Swartzman, a native Jewish-American. He gave himself a nice Chinese name-Schwarzman. In China, he became famous because he spent 61 billion yuan to take over Pan Shiyi in 2020<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00410\">SOHO China</a>All assets.</p><p>During the pandemic years, Schwarzman made a bold decision to expand his real estate business aggressively while taking advantage of the flood of cheap dollars. In 2021, the management scale of Blackstone Real Estate surpassed the traditional private equity business and became the largest core asset segment of the Group. The real estate business raised $33.5 billion in 2022, far exceeding the $22.5 billion raised by private equity.</p><p>Everything was wonderful, and I thought it could continue. But the music suddenly stopped, and it seemed that it was already destined.</p><p><b>01、</b><b>Run storm</b></p><p>On December 1st, Blackstone sent a letter to clients saying that the Real Estate Income Trust (BRIET) only had 0.3% of its net assets available for investors to redeem funds in December. The redemption rule of the fund is no more than 2% of the net assets per month, and no more than 5% of the net assets in a single quarter.</p><p>The move spooked investors in the stock market. That night, the share price once crashed by 12%, and it still plunged by more than 7% at the close. In the last 16 trading days, Blackstone plummeted 28%. The current price has also plunged by 44% from the historical peak, evaporating the market value of $45 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fe5fda31a4cc590bec595905aba7c7b\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Blackstone experienced a wave of running and made an urgent move. In October this year, investors applied for $1.8 billion in redemption funds, accounting for 2.7% of the company's net assets. Although the quota exceeds the standard, it still performs 100%. By November, more investors asked for redemptions, and Blackstone was in trouble, accepting only 43 percent of the applications, totaling $1.3 billion. Fund investors are increasingly panicking, and the redemption sell order flocked in in December.<b>Blackstone was overwhelmed and showed signs of a liquidity crisis, with the redemption ratio plummeting from 2% to 0.3%.</b></p><p>Blackstone itself admits that there is not much liquidity available directly, only $9.3 billion. If needed, they would have to sell the $9 billion in bonds they held.</p><p>In response to the run crisis, Blackstone began to sell real estate. On December 2, the company announced that it planned to pay $1.27 billion for<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MGM\">MGM</a>Grand Hotel and 49.9% of Mandalay Bay Resort were sold to VICI, which also holds the remaining stake in the two well-known Las Vegas landmarks and will wholly own the two landmark properties after the acquisition.</p><p>If investors continue to divest on a large scale, Blackstone will probably face the same experience as Evergrande. You know, the scale of Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust is as high as 125 billion US dollars, and its investment areas are real estate with extremely poor liquidity, including apartment buildings, industrial office parks, casinos, logistics facilities and so on.</p><p>Since its establishment in 2017, BRIET Fund has a brilliant record-the annualized rate of return is as high as 13%, and the dividend rate is 4.4%. With such bright and stable performance, why do investors run on a large scale?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d65ff1d2fc6429340cb231cb0f5ed56b\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In my opinion, it is a good decision for smart investors to cash out at a high level and fall in their pockets.</b>According to Blackstone, the BRIET fund has returned 9.3% this year, while the publicly traded REIT index has fallen more than 3% in the same period. Separately, real estate trust peer Vangard's real estate ETF (VQN) has returned a total of-13% this year.</p><p>BRIET Fund is not traded on the exchange, and Blackstone has the final say in its real estate pricing and appraisal, so there is a risk of over-appraisal of net asset value. With reference to peers, the performance of BRIET Fund is indeed too optimistic. For investors, this year's profit is not bad, and asset prices are overvalued. What are you waiting for if you don't cash out or leave the market?</p><p>Of course, this is not the only core reason to sell the fund. More importantly, under the background of the crazy rate hike of the global mainstream central banks, the global real estate market will face a severe test, and the decline of house prices is inevitable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaa3c697d9096ef1ccff3dfbf14014ae\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Blackstone's liquidity crisis has just begun.</b></p><p><b>02、</b><b>Frozen property market</b></p><p>During the COVID-19 pandemic, European and American central banks carried out ultra-large-scale monetary easing policies. Cheap money is constantly printed by crazy printing presses, flooding to all kinds of financial assets and the real world, creating an unprecedented asset bubble and the highest global inflation in 40 years.</p><p>Real estate naturally also enjoys a capital bubble bath.<b>According to OECD data, the average house price in 34 member countries is up 35% from 2019.</b>Among them, between March 2020 and June 2022, U.S. home prices increased by an astonishing 42%.</p><p>The bubble spree is unsustainable after all. Inflation is menacing, and the Federal Reserve leads global central banks to a violent rate hike. Add seven times a year, and the rate hike may be as high as 450 basis points (50BP is expected in December), superimposing a sharp shrinking balance sheet, and the degree of currency tightening will be the fastest in 40 years.</p><p>Interest rates reversed and rose massively, freezing the U.S. housing market.</p><p>In October, the U.S. homebuyer confidence index quickly slipped to 39, the lowest level since the 1980s. Homebuilders, too, lacked confidence and were cut in half within a few months. In November, the NAHB property index was just 33, close to its lowest point in May 2020 during Covid lockdowns and below its level in February 2007. Be aware that the NAHB index is a leading indicator of home sales in the United States, as well as overall spending. An index above 50 indicates that the housing market is expanding, and an index below 50 indicates that it is contracting.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b823c321ba47b25f7e6a2a48ceac7e7\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In October, the total number of existing home sales in the United States recorded 4.43 million on an annualized basis, a new low since December 2011, and a month-on-month decrease of 5.9%. It was a nine-month consecutive decline, the longest losing streak in history, and the losing streak even exceeded that of the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008.</p><p>According to the international real estate company RE/MAX, which surveyed 53 metro areas in the United States, the total home sales in the United States fell 13.5% month-on-month and 30.7% year-on-year in October. The report also noted that there are 36.8% more homes for sale than a year ago, and that it takes an average of 35 days for homes to sell after they hit the market.</p><p><b>There is a serious lack of confidence between buyers and sellers of real estate, and the rapid cooling of transaction volume is also an important signal that housing prices are about to begin to fall at an inflection point.</b></p><p>In September this year, the composite index of housing prices in 20 major cities in the United States rose 10.4% year-on-year, down 2.7 percentage points from the previous value of 13.1%. In terms of month-on-month, San Francisco and Seattle saw the biggest decline in house prices, both down 2.9%, Las Vegas fell 2.4%, and Phoenix fell 2.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fca640780801809392883b38effa8e3\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Housing prices in the United States peaked and fell, and it will be a great probability event to record an optimistic decline.</b>According to Diane Swonk, chief economist of KPMG, home prices in the United States may fall by 15% in 2023.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It is believed that the adjustment of U.S. house prices has just begun. The Case-Schiller National House Price Index will fall by 4% year-on-year in 2023, and from June 2022 to the end of 2024, U.S. house prices will fall by about 10% from the peak.</p><p>Why did it fall so much?</p><p>This year, the 30-year mortgage rate rose from 2.98 percent at the beginning of the year to 7.1 percent, hitting a new high in 2002. Rates remain as high as 6.49% at the moment. This will be a major blow to investors and those who just need to buy houses. Under the pressure of high inflation, the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for a long time next year, and the huge pressure on real estate will not abate sharply.</p><p>In 2023, a possible deep recession in the U.S. economy will also hit the housing market hard.</p><p>At present, the forward-looking indicators of the US economy, the manufacturing PMI and the service PMI, have all slipped to within the 50 boom-bust line for several months. The crude oil market is also really reflecting the realistic logic of slowing demand in the global economy (including the United States). At present, the price of WTI crude oil futures is only $74, setting a new low for the year again.</p><p>In terms of financial indicators, the yields of 2-year and 10-year Treasury Bond have recently inverted by 80 basis points, the largest rate since 1981. The indicator tends to be seen as a relatively accurate leading signal of a U.S. recession. Since 1988, the inversion phenomenon has occurred roughly four times, and all of them have triggered the subsequent economic recession and crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e33433580e0406dc5f396ce7398f401b\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From all kinds of data and logical deduction, the U.S. economy will begin to decline rapidly in the first quarter of next year. In fact, we can also get a clue from the layoffs in Silicon Valley and Wall Street in the United States.<b>The giant groups are stepping up risk-off measures and also suggesting that the U.S. economy may be worse than expected in 2023.</b></p><p>The real estate market in the United States will become increasingly frozen, which will bring greater impact and trouble to Blackstone. After all, more than 70% of the BRIET Fund's assets are invested in the west and south of the United States.</p><p><b>03、</b><b>epilogue</b></p><p>Overseas property market bubbles burst one by one.</p><p>In New Zealand, house prices fell 11% in October from their peak in January this year. In Sweden, house prices also fell 11 percent in September from their peak in March. On the Canadian side, national home prices fell 3.1 per cent month-over-month in September, the biggest monthly decline since traceable data became available in 1999. In South Korea, national apartment prices fell 1.20% month-on-month in October, the biggest monthly decline since November 2003 data statistics, and Seoul apartment prices fell 1.24% month-on-month, more than the overall decline, falling for the ninth consecutive month.</p><p>The latest Oxford Research Institute report predicts that house prices in Canada may fall by 30%, New Zealand by 20% and Australia by as much as 20%. This is the most worrying outlook for the property market in 2007-2008.</p><p>Beneath an avalanche, no snowflake is innocent. Of course, it also includes Blackstone Group, which has expanded its real estate business during the pandemic. Schwarzman has been over 70 years old and has experienced eight major crises without failing. I hope this major liquidity crisis can also be narrowly passed.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Blackstone was run wildly: another big financial thunder</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBlackstone was run wildly: another big financial thunder\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇投资学苑 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-07 20:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>How powerful is it?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">Blackstone</a>Group, the king of Wall Street in the new century, sits on nearly a trillion dollars of assets, the world's largest private equity fund and asset management company. It is arrogant in the global financial arena.</p><p>Blackstone is owned by Stephen Swartzman, a native Jewish-American. He gave himself a nice Chinese name-Schwarzman. In China, he became famous because he spent 61 billion yuan to take over Pan Shiyi in 2020<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00410\">SOHO China</a>All assets.</p><p>During the pandemic years, Schwarzman made a bold decision to expand his real estate business aggressively while taking advantage of the flood of cheap dollars. In 2021, the management scale of Blackstone Real Estate surpassed the traditional private equity business and became the largest core asset segment of the Group. The real estate business raised $33.5 billion in 2022, far exceeding the $22.5 billion raised by private equity.</p><p>Everything was wonderful, and I thought it could continue. But the music suddenly stopped, and it seemed that it was already destined.</p><p><b>01、</b><b>Run storm</b></p><p>On December 1st, Blackstone sent a letter to clients saying that the Real Estate Income Trust (BRIET) only had 0.3% of its net assets available for investors to redeem funds in December. The redemption rule of the fund is no more than 2% of the net assets per month, and no more than 5% of the net assets in a single quarter.</p><p>The move spooked investors in the stock market. That night, the share price once crashed by 12%, and it still plunged by more than 7% at the close. In the last 16 trading days, Blackstone plummeted 28%. The current price has also plunged by 44% from the historical peak, evaporating the market value of $45 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fe5fda31a4cc590bec595905aba7c7b\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Blackstone experienced a wave of running and made an urgent move. In October this year, investors applied for $1.8 billion in redemption funds, accounting for 2.7% of the company's net assets. Although the quota exceeds the standard, it still performs 100%. By November, more investors asked for redemptions, and Blackstone was in trouble, accepting only 43 percent of the applications, totaling $1.3 billion. Fund investors are increasingly panicking, and the redemption sell order flocked in in December.<b>Blackstone was overwhelmed and showed signs of a liquidity crisis, with the redemption ratio plummeting from 2% to 0.3%.</b></p><p>Blackstone itself admits that there is not much liquidity available directly, only $9.3 billion. If needed, they would have to sell the $9 billion in bonds they held.</p><p>In response to the run crisis, Blackstone began to sell real estate. On December 2, the company announced that it planned to pay $1.27 billion for<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MGM\">MGM</a>Grand Hotel and 49.9% of Mandalay Bay Resort were sold to VICI, which also holds the remaining stake in the two well-known Las Vegas landmarks and will wholly own the two landmark properties after the acquisition.</p><p>If investors continue to divest on a large scale, Blackstone will probably face the same experience as Evergrande. You know, the scale of Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust is as high as 125 billion US dollars, and its investment areas are real estate with extremely poor liquidity, including apartment buildings, industrial office parks, casinos, logistics facilities and so on.</p><p>Since its establishment in 2017, BRIET Fund has a brilliant record-the annualized rate of return is as high as 13%, and the dividend rate is 4.4%. With such bright and stable performance, why do investors run on a large scale?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d65ff1d2fc6429340cb231cb0f5ed56b\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In my opinion, it is a good decision for smart investors to cash out at a high level and fall in their pockets.</b>According to Blackstone, the BRIET fund has returned 9.3% this year, while the publicly traded REIT index has fallen more than 3% in the same period. Separately, real estate trust peer Vangard's real estate ETF (VQN) has returned a total of-13% this year.</p><p>BRIET Fund is not traded on the exchange, and Blackstone has the final say in its real estate pricing and appraisal, so there is a risk of over-appraisal of net asset value. With reference to peers, the performance of BRIET Fund is indeed too optimistic. For investors, this year's profit is not bad, and asset prices are overvalued. What are you waiting for if you don't cash out or leave the market?</p><p>Of course, this is not the only core reason to sell the fund. More importantly, under the background of the crazy rate hike of the global mainstream central banks, the global real estate market will face a severe test, and the decline of house prices is inevitable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaa3c697d9096ef1ccff3dfbf14014ae\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Blackstone's liquidity crisis has just begun.</b></p><p><b>02、</b><b>Frozen property market</b></p><p>During the COVID-19 pandemic, European and American central banks carried out ultra-large-scale monetary easing policies. Cheap money is constantly printed by crazy printing presses, flooding to all kinds of financial assets and the real world, creating an unprecedented asset bubble and the highest global inflation in 40 years.</p><p>Real estate naturally also enjoys a capital bubble bath.<b>According to OECD data, the average house price in 34 member countries is up 35% from 2019.</b>Among them, between March 2020 and June 2022, U.S. home prices increased by an astonishing 42%.</p><p>The bubble spree is unsustainable after all. Inflation is menacing, and the Federal Reserve leads global central banks to a violent rate hike. Add seven times a year, and the rate hike may be as high as 450 basis points (50BP is expected in December), superimposing a sharp shrinking balance sheet, and the degree of currency tightening will be the fastest in 40 years.</p><p>Interest rates reversed and rose massively, freezing the U.S. housing market.</p><p>In October, the U.S. homebuyer confidence index quickly slipped to 39, the lowest level since the 1980s. Homebuilders, too, lacked confidence and were cut in half within a few months. In November, the NAHB property index was just 33, close to its lowest point in May 2020 during Covid lockdowns and below its level in February 2007. Be aware that the NAHB index is a leading indicator of home sales in the United States, as well as overall spending. An index above 50 indicates that the housing market is expanding, and an index below 50 indicates that it is contracting.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b823c321ba47b25f7e6a2a48ceac7e7\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In October, the total number of existing home sales in the United States recorded 4.43 million on an annualized basis, a new low since December 2011, and a month-on-month decrease of 5.9%. It was a nine-month consecutive decline, the longest losing streak in history, and the losing streak even exceeded that of the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008.</p><p>According to the international real estate company RE/MAX, which surveyed 53 metro areas in the United States, the total home sales in the United States fell 13.5% month-on-month and 30.7% year-on-year in October. The report also noted that there are 36.8% more homes for sale than a year ago, and that it takes an average of 35 days for homes to sell after they hit the market.</p><p><b>There is a serious lack of confidence between buyers and sellers of real estate, and the rapid cooling of transaction volume is also an important signal that housing prices are about to begin to fall at an inflection point.</b></p><p>In September this year, the composite index of housing prices in 20 major cities in the United States rose 10.4% year-on-year, down 2.7 percentage points from the previous value of 13.1%. In terms of month-on-month, San Francisco and Seattle saw the biggest decline in house prices, both down 2.9%, Las Vegas fell 2.4%, and Phoenix fell 2.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fca640780801809392883b38effa8e3\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Housing prices in the United States peaked and fell, and it will be a great probability event to record an optimistic decline.</b>According to Diane Swonk, chief economist of KPMG, home prices in the United States may fall by 15% in 2023.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It is believed that the adjustment of U.S. house prices has just begun. The Case-Schiller National House Price Index will fall by 4% year-on-year in 2023, and from June 2022 to the end of 2024, U.S. house prices will fall by about 10% from the peak.</p><p>Why did it fall so much?</p><p>This year, the 30-year mortgage rate rose from 2.98 percent at the beginning of the year to 7.1 percent, hitting a new high in 2002. Rates remain as high as 6.49% at the moment. This will be a major blow to investors and those who just need to buy houses. Under the pressure of high inflation, the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for a long time next year, and the huge pressure on real estate will not abate sharply.</p><p>In 2023, a possible deep recession in the U.S. economy will also hit the housing market hard.</p><p>At present, the forward-looking indicators of the US economy, the manufacturing PMI and the service PMI, have all slipped to within the 50 boom-bust line for several months. The crude oil market is also really reflecting the realistic logic of slowing demand in the global economy (including the United States). At present, the price of WTI crude oil futures is only $74, setting a new low for the year again.</p><p>In terms of financial indicators, the yields of 2-year and 10-year Treasury Bond have recently inverted by 80 basis points, the largest rate since 1981. The indicator tends to be seen as a relatively accurate leading signal of a U.S. recession. Since 1988, the inversion phenomenon has occurred roughly four times, and all of them have triggered the subsequent economic recession and crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e33433580e0406dc5f396ce7398f401b\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From all kinds of data and logical deduction, the U.S. economy will begin to decline rapidly in the first quarter of next year. In fact, we can also get a clue from the layoffs in Silicon Valley and Wall Street in the United States.<b>The giant groups are stepping up risk-off measures and also suggesting that the U.S. economy may be worse than expected in 2023.</b></p><p>The real estate market in the United States will become increasingly frozen, which will bring greater impact and trouble to Blackstone. After all, more than 70% of the BRIET Fund's assets are invested in the west and south of the United States.</p><p><b>03、</b><b>epilogue</b></p><p>Overseas property market bubbles burst one by one.</p><p>In New Zealand, house prices fell 11% in October from their peak in January this year. In Sweden, house prices also fell 11 percent in September from their peak in March. On the Canadian side, national home prices fell 3.1 per cent month-over-month in September, the biggest monthly decline since traceable data became available in 1999. In South Korea, national apartment prices fell 1.20% month-on-month in October, the biggest monthly decline since November 2003 data statistics, and Seoul apartment prices fell 1.24% month-on-month, more than the overall decline, falling for the ninth consecutive month.</p><p>The latest Oxford Research Institute report predicts that house prices in Canada may fall by 30%, New Zealand by 20% and Australia by as much as 20%. This is the most worrying outlook for the property market in 2007-2008.</p><p>Beneath an avalanche, no snowflake is innocent. Of course, it also includes Blackstone Group, which has expanded its real estate business during the pandemic. Schwarzman has been over 70 years old and has experienced eight major crises without failing. I hope this major liquidity crisis can also be narrowly passed.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1809e27051e8cdce9de7de16a0c4b29c","relate_stocks":{"159940":"金融","BX":"黑石","BK4135":"资产管理与托管银行"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132239927","content_text":"威力有多大？黑石集团，新世纪华尔街之王，坐拥近万亿美元资产，全球最大的私募股权基金和资产管理公司。它在全球金融江湖呼风唤雨，不可一世。黑石的老板是史蒂芬.斯瓦茨曼，土生土长的犹太裔美国人。他给自己起了一个好听的中文名——苏世民。在中国，他名声大噪，是因为2020年斥资610亿元接盘潘石屹SOHO中国全部资产。疫情几年间，苏世民做了一个大胆的决定，趁着泛滥低廉的美元大肆扩张房地产业务。2021年，黑石不动产管理规模一举超过私募股权传统业务，成为集团第一大核心资产板块。2022年，不动产业务募集了335亿美元，远超过私募股权225亿美元的募集规模。一切美妙，原本以为可以继续。但音乐突然戛然而止，似乎也早已命中注定。01、挤兑风波12月1日，黑石给客户致信称，房地产收益信托基金（BRIET）12月只有占净资产规模0.3%的额度可供投资者赎回资金。而该基金赎回规则是每个月不超过净资产规模的2%，单个季度累计不超过净资产的5%。这一举措吓坏了股票市场的投资者。当夜，股价一度闪崩12%，收盘仍大跌逾7%。最近16个交易日，黑石狂泻28%。现价较历史高峰也已经大幅暴跌44%，蒸发市值450亿美元。黑石经历了一波挤兑，紧急出此下策。今年10月，投资者赎回资金申请高达18亿美元，占到公司净资产规模的2.7%。虽然额度超标，但仍然100%履约。到了11月，更多投资者要求赎回，黑石遭遇困境，仅仅受理了43%的申请，总计13亿美元。基金投资者愈发恐慌，12月赎回卖盘蜂拥而入。黑石招架不住，出现了流动性危机征兆，赎回额比例从2%骤降至0.3%。黑石自己也承认手里可以直接动用的流动性资金并不多，仅仅93亿美元。如果有需要，就得卖出手里握有的90亿美元的债券。为了应对挤兑危机，黑石方面开始行动卖出不动产。12月2日，该公司宣布，拟作价12.7亿美元将美高梅大酒店和曼德勒海湾度假村的49.9%股份卖给VICI，后者也持有这两个拉斯维加斯知名地标的剩余股权，收购后将全资拥有这两个地标房产。如果投资者继续大规模撤资，黑石恐怕将面临恒大一样的遭遇。要知道，黑石房地产收益信托基金规模高达1250亿美元，投资领域均是流动性极差的不动产，包括公寓楼、工业办公园区、赌场、物流设施等等。而从2017年成立以来，BRIET基金有辉煌的战绩——年化收益率高达13%，同时分红收益率为4.4%。如此亮眼、如此稳定的业绩表现，为何投资者会大规模挤兑呢？在我看来，聪明投资者高位套现，落袋为安是一个尚佳决策。据黑石统计，今年以来，BRIET基金回报率高达9.3%，而同期公开交易的REIT指数下跌逾3%。另外，房地产信托基金同行Vangard旗下房地产ETF（VQN）今年总回报率为-13%。BRIET基金不在交易所交易，其不动产定价与评估都是黑石自己说了算，存在资产净值评估过高的风险。参照同行而言，BRIET基金表现确实太过于乐观了。对于投资者而言，今年盈利还不错，资产价格还被高估，不套现不离场，还等什么呢？当然，这并不是卖出基金的唯一核心理由。更为重要的是，在全球主流央行疯狂加息的大背景下，全球房地产市场将迎来严峻考验，房价下跌无法避免。黑石遭遇的流动性危机，才刚刚拉开序幕。02、楼市冰封新冠疫情期间，欧美央行开展了超大规模的货币宽松政策。廉价的货币被疯狂的印刷机不断印刷出来，涌向各类金融资产以及实体领域，造就了史无前例的资产泡沫以及40年以来最高的全球大通胀。房地产自然也会享受资本泡沫浴。据经合组织数据显示，34个成员国的平均房价较2019年上涨35%。其中在2020年3月至2022年6月，美国房价惊人上涨42%。泡沫狂欢，终究不可持续。通胀来势汹汹，美联储带领全球央行开始暴力加息。一年加7次，加息幅度可能会高达450个基点（12月预计50BP），叠加大幅缩表，货币紧转弯程度创40年最快。利率反转大规模上涨，冰冻了美国房地产市场。今年10月，美国购房者信心指数快速滑落至39，创下1980年代以来最低水平。房屋建筑商也一样，信心不足，几个月之内被腰斩。11月，NAHB房地产指数仅仅只有33，接近2020年5月新冠封锁时的最低点，低于2007年2月的水平。要知道，NAHB指数是美国房屋销售以及整体支出的一个领先指标。指数高于50，表明房地产市场在扩张，低于50表明在收缩。美国10月成屋销售总数年化录得443万户，创2011年12月以来的新低，环比下降5.9%，为连续9个月下滑，创有史以来最长连跌纪录，连跌周期甚至已超过2008年次贷危机时期。另据国际房地产公司RE/MAX调查了美国53个都会区，10月全美房屋销售总量环比下降了13.5％，同比下降了30.7％。报告还指出，待售房屋比一年前增加了36.8％，房屋上市后平均要35天才能售出。地产买卖双方信心严重不足，成交量快速冷却，亦是房价即将开始出现拐点下跌的重要信号。今年9月，美国20个大城市房价综合指数同比上涨10.4%，较前值13.1%下降2.7个百分点。环比来看，其中旧金山和西雅图房价跌幅最大，均跌2.9%，拉斯维加斯下滑2.4%，凤凰城跌幅为2.2%。美国房价见顶下跌，录得乐观跌幅将会是绝大概率事件。据毕马威首席经济学家Diane Swonk预测，2023年美国的房价或将下跌15%。摩根士丹利则认为，美国房价调整才刚刚开始，凯斯-席勒全美房价指数将于2023年同比下跌4%，2022年6月至2024年底，美国房价将由峰值下滑约10%。为什么会跌这么多？今年，30年期按揭贷款利率从年初的2.98%一路上扬至7.1%，创下2002年的新高。目前利率仍高达6.49%。这对于投资客以及刚需购房人群均会是重大打击。在高通胀的压力下，明年美联储还将维持高利率水平较长时间，对房地产的巨大压力不会锐减。2023年，美国经济可能的深度衰退，也将重创房地产市场。目前，美国经济前瞻性指标制造业PMI、服务业PMI均已经持续数月滑落至50荣枯线以内。原油市场也正在真真切切反应全球经济(包括美国)需求放缓的现实逻辑。目前，WTI原油期货价格仅为74美元，再度创下年内新低。金融指标上，2年期与10年期国债收益率近日倒挂幅度高达80个基点，创下1981年来最大的幅度。该指标往往被视为美国经济衰退的相对准确的领先信号。1988年以来，倒挂现象大致发生了4次，也都引发了后来的经济衰退与危机。从各种数据以及逻辑推演来看，美国经济将会在明年一季度开始迎来快速下滑。其实，我们从美国硅谷、华尔街的裁员潮也能端倪一二。巨擘集团们正为强化避险措施，同时也说明2023年的美国经济可能会比预期差。美国房地产市场会愈加冰封，将给黑石带来更大的冲击与麻烦。毕竟BRIET基金超过70%的资产投资于美国的西部和南部。03、尾声海外楼市泡沫一个一个破裂。在新西兰，10月房价比今年1月峰值时下跌11%。在瑞典，9月房价也比3月时的峰值回落11%。在加拿大方面，9月份全国房价环比下跌3.1%，是自1999年有可追溯数据以来的最大单月跌幅。在韩国，10月全国公寓价格环比下跌1.20%，这是自2003年11月数据统计以来的最大月度跌幅，首尔公寓价格环比下跌1.24%，降幅超过整体，连续第9个月下跌。牛津研究院最新一份报告预测，加拿大房价可能下挫30%，新西兰房价或下滑20%，澳州房价可能下降多达20%。这是2007-2008年最令人担忧的楼市前景。雪崩之下，没有一片雪花是无辜的。当然，也包括在疫情期间大势扩张地产业务的黑石集团。苏世民已经年过7旬，经历八次大危机而不倒。希望这一次重大流动性危机也能惊险过关。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159940":0.9,"BX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2756,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9043854086,"gmtCreate":1655908658846,"gmtModify":1676535730033,"author":{"id":"3584267972657287","authorId":"3584267972657287","name":"财米游言","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1516ab44d3460e0b97830666a8c1a44","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584267972657287","idStr":"3584267972657287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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