Right after the latest CPI print, a market that looks calm on the surface may in fact be quietly brewing a turning point—and an opportunity. In this piece, Owen wants to talk about the topic that is probably on everyone's mind: has the moment to go long gold finally come? Let's lead with our core conclusion: gold is very likely to see a sizable rebound. The reason is that, with CPI unexpectedly cooling, the market's expectations for Fed rate hikes have already faded. The 2-year Treasury yield has broken below its uptrend, dragging the US Dollar Index into a bearish technical structure. Once the Dollar Index breaks its key level, a gold rebound could well be triggered. But this is only a “rebound,” not a “reversal”—to lock in this move steadily, we still have to strictly follow the discipli

Every week, Owen talks through some of the trading opportunities and strategies in the current market that are worth watching. This time we won't dwell on preliminaries and will get straight to the point. I believe there are two main opportunities to focus on this time: First, the crude oil crack spread has now surged to a historic extreme. How to find the right timing to short the spread is a highly noteworthy profit opportunity. Second, U.S. equities are currently stuck in a high-level, range-bound pattern. With tonight's upcoming CPI data as a catalyst, how should we use an options straddle strategy to bet on a return of volatility? This is likewise an opportunity worth exploring. Let's look at them one by one. $标普500(.SPX)$

Last time I talked with you about this week's options strategy: besides continuing to run the index options straddle into rallies, one could also consider going long U.S. Treasuries on dips — especially the price of the long-bond TLT. But on Treasuries, as of today, after the escalation of the U.S.–Iran war, everyone needs to be more careful: rising crude oil drives inflation expectations higher, which could push Treasury yields up further, and Treasury prices would then face downward pressure. So we can lift the stop-loss on the buy-the-dip Treasury view a bit higher — up to near the prior-low support around $83.5. Review：Strong Dollar Returns: After Booking the Straddle Win,Why Treasuries Deserv

The current US financial market has flashed a very strong red warning signal: a strong dollar may return, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) is likely to experience a short-to-medium-term impulsive upward rally in the near future. From a technical perspective in the futures market, the DXY has broken through crucial resistance levels. Following the typical price action rules of a "head and shoulders bottom" pattern, the dollar's rise could mirror the previous decline in crude oil, triggering an impulsive upward trend of significant magnitude: $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund(UDN)$ $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund(UUP)$</

Over the weekend, renewed exchanges of fire between Israel and Lebanon reignited tensions in the US-Iran negotiations. Iran announced that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted to zero, effectively placing the strait under a de facto blockade and setting market nerves on edge once again. Absent any news of a negotiated settlement, crude oil is poised for a substantial rebound next week, though the outlook for other commodities and equity indices remains grim. With the US midterm elections approaching, a "fight-and-talk" dynamic will define future market action. The US is eager to restore navigation to lower oil prices and fulfill campaign promises, while Iran aims to leverage the strait's reopening to extract maximum economic concessions. Consequently, negotiations wi

With rising expectations that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement will be signed, the market appears to have temporarily escaped the shadow of inflation, and U.S. equities have finally welcomed a long-overdue rebound. Many investors may feel this is the time to buy the dip. However, I want to caution: do not yet let your guard down. The market's volatile phase has not passed. The current gains in U.S. stocks remain unstable, and the first leg of the crude oil bearish rally may already be complete. We need to patiently wait for the November 19 ceasefire agreement signing results and specific details to materialize before the market can potentially launch a new bearish phase. More importantly, for both the fragile rebound in U.S. equities and U.S. Treasuries, adopting a selling-options strateg

Over the weekend, there were frequent positive signals from the U.S.–Iran peace negotiations. If an agreement is reached, the reopening of the Strait could be imminent. As discussed in last week’s live session, the core sticking point in current negotiations lies in uranium enrichment. The U.S. is seeking Iran’s commitment to abandon uranium enrichment before lifting sanctions, while Iran prefers that sanctions be lifted first before addressing enrichment. If this divergence can be reconciled, negotiations could accelerate; otherwise, entrenched positions on both sides may stall or even derail the process. Recent developments appear favorable for the reopening of the Strait, which is likely to trigger a notable shift in market positioning next week. 1. Direct Impact on Crude Oil There is l

Market regime review and the uncertainty of future directions Last week, Trump’s visit to China dominated most of the headlines, but after the lively atmosphere and optimistic expectations, it ultimately appears that no substantive outcomes were achieved. This led to a decline in most non-dominant risk assets in the latter part of the week, with both gold and silver signaling that the previous round of a corrective rebound has ended. However, as the summer rally approaches, whether a sustained performance can be achieved remains highly variable. Weak relative performance signals for precious metals and non-mainstream metals Silver posted a large upper shadow last week, with a intraday high near $90, but then retraced the gains over the next two trading days. The pace of the rebound is slow

The New Term “NACHO” and Shifting Market Expectations Recently, new buzzwords have been emerging in financial markets. Following “TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out), another term—“NACHO”—has quietly gained traction among traders. “NACHO” stands for Not A Chance Hormuz Opens, implying that there is little hope for a quick resolution regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Essentially, this reflects the market’s declining confidence in a swift reopening of the strait, leading to expectations that elevated oil prices will persist far longer than previously anticipated, thereby reigniting longer-term inflation. The emergence of this term also signals a shift in market focus—from short-term price fluctuations to a broader consideration of assets’ inflation-hedging characteristics over a longer hori

Geopolitical Deadlock PersistsOver the weekend, the U.S.–Iran conflict has approached the two-month mark, and the negotiation deadlock remains unresolved. The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked—regardless of whether the blockade is enforced by Iran or the United States, a large number of vessels remain stranded in the strait. Although financial markets have reacted relatively optimistically, with U.S. equities rallying while oil prices fluctuate and commodities remain broadly subdued, the underlying situation has not materially changed. Market Reaction and Inflation Outlook Persistently high oil prices will gradually feed into inflation over time, so any sudden surge in prices should not come as a surprise. Meanwhile, a shooting incident occurred during Trump’s White House press conference

The two-week negotiation window between the United States and Iran has come to an end. Over the past two weeks, market expectations were highly optimistic—U.S. equities surged, and oil prices declined. Unfortunately, as the deadline arrived, weekend news suggested that the two sides failed to reach an agreement. The final outcome will only be confirmed once a formal agreement is signed. In any case, the key signal remains unchanged: when the strait is fully reopened, that will mark the true end of this event. All other news is merely noise. There were earlier rumors suggesting that the U.S. proposed the two-week negotiation period as a cover to deploy additional military forces. If this proves true, further escalation of conflict cannot be ruled out. Investors should remain vigilant. I. Ca

Recently, the core variable in crude oil trading has still been the evolving situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Based on the information currently available, a second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran has already been put on the agenda. That, in itself, is a very important development. It suggests that the Strait of Hormuz crisis is moving away from a war-based resolution path and gradually shifting toward a negotiation-based one. In other words, the situation is easing rather than escalating. This shift matters because it directly changes the pricing logic of crude oil. If the market was previously trading on the assumption of escalating conflict, supply disruption, and uncontrolled risk, it is now beginning to price in easing tensions, advancing dialogue, and a dec

In fact, the two week window of de-escalation in the conflict has long been priced into capital market movements. Although a week ago the US and Iran were still trading harsh rhetoric, with the US even threatening to destroy Iranian civilization, after all that saber-rattling you may have noticed that crude oil did not register a new high. Moreover, the US one-year inflation expectations – which typically spike along with crude oil – and the 10-year Treasury yield – which is most sensitive to US equity moves – remained remarkably calm：  $美国10年期国债收益率(US10Y.BOND)$ $3倍做空7-10年期国债ETF-Direxion(TYO)$ $20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$    In fact, the 10-yea

Pentagon Reshuffle Signals Ground War Last week, oil prices experienced a new round of surging—with single-week gains exceeding double digits—driven by President Trump's aggressive, pre-war mobilization-style remarks. Although a dramatic rescue of an American pilot took place over the weekend, the more critical focus remains the personnel upheaval within the upper echelons of the US military. From a logical standpoint, this could be a strategic move to install loyalists in preparation for an eventual full-scale conflict. Therefore, even if a "ground war" is not necessarily the optimal choice, the risk of its outbreak can no longer be ignored. According to public sources, at least three top military officials have been "reassigned" or "forced into retirement," including the high-ranking Arm

Beyond market volatility, many of us are likely feeling another kind of “price surge” in daily life. Since early April, Singapore has entered a broad repricing mode — fuel prices flashing higher, electricity bills creeping up, and even your daily cup of kopi costing a few cents more. From oil to kopi, everything is rising The root cause may lie thousands of miles away — in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s key energy chokepoint. Rising geopolitical tensions have pushed up oil and natural gas prices, feeding directly into local costs. Diesel prices surged 4.7%–7.6% overnight Singapore relies on ~95% natural gas for electricity, and gas prices are linked to oil $Natural Gas - main 2605(NGmain)$ Residential electricity tariffs have already risen