1. Market Cap Weight As noted above, defensives’ market cap weight reached an all-time low last year, since then they have ticked up as tech has ticked down off record highs. Again, this tells us about the state of the market cycle (note where previous extremes were, and how fleeting they ended up being — and how they ultimately resolved). But it also tells us important investment strategy takeaways such as how passive index investors are now heavily exposed to tech and on the contrary, also have historically low exposure to the diversifying and risk-dampening attributes of defensives. So this is a timely prompt to consider both the big picture macro-market outlook, but also the pragmatic implications for portfolio strategy (e.g. is this the right sector mix for equity exposure? should you

$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2603(NQmain)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ Probably the most Unthinkable chart you can imagine... US tech stocks have peaked and are losing ground vs global tech stocks. Surely the US is not about to lose its Global Tech Leadership status?? But these things do go in cycles, even if you have big conviction on the very real fundamental story, you can't ignore macro-market-financial cycles, and the cycle is looking quite tenuous... The big issue is Tech Stocks have peaked, are on technically shaky ground ---AND this is coming from a starting point of stretched Valuations.

Tech Sector Credit Risk! 👀 It was all fun and games with AI hype when it was just equity markets, but now that credit markets are involved it doesn't seem so fun anymore… $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2603(NQmain)$ Higher for Longer risk... It seems like in lieu of a deflationary recession the path of least resistance for bond yields is higher (for longer). If that happens slowly and smoothly then it's probably no issue. But there are some risks if the path becomes more violent sharp... Emerging Markets risk pricing sentiment. Confidence vs Complacency?

1.Tech & Tech $The Technology Select Sector SPDR Premium Income Fund(XLKI)$ related sectors' Capex has gone from around 25% to 50% of total S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ corporate capex over the past decade.Boom, bubble, or new paradigm? 2.Black line playing catch-up...Gold $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ firmly outperforming virtually every other asset ---what's the end-game here?? 3.Gold is overvalued, and so are tech stocks $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ . For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.

1.Commercial Real Estate: big reset.In real inflation-adjusted terms, the CRE downturn has been substantial (-30%) and drawn-out (almost 4 years since peak to initial trough). Some might say that’s “enough”. (…downturn done?) 2.One of the biggest themes in markets last year was the Global Equities catch-up trade.We saw major upward re-rating of valuations across developed, emerging, and frontier markets.And there is still plenty of room to run... For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.🎉Cash Boost Account Now Supports 35,000+ Stocks & ETFs – Greater Flexibility NowFind out more here.Compl

1.Surging semiconductors $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ : the big beneficiary of the AI hype bubble has been semiconductor stocks – with that sector’s market cap weight far eclipsing levels seen during the dot com boom. Is it the new normal, or just another cycle of boom and b...? 2. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Surveyed Sentiment: summing the various surveys, sentiment is getting fairly bullish. This is not necessarily an impending bearish signal as it reflects the bullish momentum underway, and I would highlight that sentiment generally works better at picking bottoms than tops. But it does got to show that most minds are made-up… and if the right(/wrong) thing came along, those minds could change pretty quickly

1.Global Equities have been surging -- and here's one of a few key reasons why 👇 Globally we've seen a big pivot to easing by central banks, and basically what I would call a non-recessionary rate-cut-rush.(bullish!) 2.Absolutely catastrophic run in energy stocks vs gold miners...(but you always want to pay attention when extreme moves like this unfold e.g. see what happened last time a move like this occurred) $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ 3.We’ve seen a generational up-shift in US equity allocations and valuations. It would be difficult to see either of these lines move further higher, the best case is probably just a new higher plateau… For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA toda

For those who are wondering what’s behind the moves in the chart above, or for those who may be skeptical on technicals, this next chart provides some critical context on what has been a major driver of the global equity bull market.Aside from global stocks coming off of very cheap valuations (vs their own history and vs US), we have seen a major pivot in global macroeconomic policy settings.Heading into 2025 there was already a shift towards easing, and then the chaos of H1 (tariff tantrum) triggered a wave of precautionary stimulus in response. This along with a weakening US dollar, rotation flows, and improving macro/earnings pulse has given a firm macro-fundamental backing to the technical developments which I laid out above. This is where you see the most interesting moves in markets:

1.Stocks & Gold are ExpensiveBonds & Commodities are CheapSo far it's shaping up to be a good year for commodities...But there's a few things to keep an eye on: 2.Investor allocations to bonds are at a 20-year low......and more to the point, they are at similar levels to where they got at the peak of the dot-com bubble and just prior to the global financial crisis.Yes, this is a contrarian signal.Got bonds? For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.🎉Cash Boost Account Now Supports 35,000+ Stocks & ETFs – Greater Flexibility NowFind out more here.Complete your first Cash Boost Accou

1.It's not-dot-com...But, there are are a few indicators that look *very* similar.Tech is extremely Expensive vs the rest of the market, and Defensives are extremely Cheap vs the rest of the market.And yeah, as they say, valuation signals aren't great for timing (...unless they get extreme). $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ 2.Copper/Gold RatioRotation time?(key theme for commodities, but also important macro implications if that black line begins to sustainably rise) $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ $Copper - main 2603(HGmain)$ 3.Commodities' Relative Strength-Gold is stretched to the upside-Crude Oil stretched to

1.Rich Wealth vs Poor Wealth 🤔 The wealthiest Americans have most of their assets in corporate equity.Mass-affluent upper-middle own stocks/funds and property.Lower half; it's mostly houses & things.What does this tell you? 2.With great Metal prices comes great stock prices for Miners!(which is a good reminder that one doesn’t necessarily need to invest in the commodities themselves, as the commodity producers’ stock prices have a habit of traveling in the same direction as the commodity prices...) 3.Big Beautiful Breakout in Base Metals.Very bullish development by itself...But also arguably an important macro signal of a stronger global economy heading into 2026. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited tradi

1.While the Stockmarket is booming, Economic Confidence is glooming...The bullish take:-scope for more rate cuts-room to move to the upside-(and) better earnings for ex-tech? 2.What do Commodity prices and the Global Economy have in common?Both have been on an improving path since the near-miss global recession scare in 2022/23.ANDBoth see a bright outlook in 2026 3.LatAm Equities Big BreakoutAre we on the cusp of a golden decade for Latin America? For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.🎉Cash Boost Account Now Supports 35,000+ Stocks & ETFs – Greater Flexibility NowFind out more here.Com

1.The Worst of the BestThis table shows drawdown stats for some of the best performing stocks of our times. It goes to show that not only do you have to pick the right stock, but you have to be able to hold-on and navigate through sometimes catastrophic (and drawn-out) declines during the process... $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Amgen(AMGN)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Paychex(PAYX)$ $Home Depot(HD)$ $Progressive(PGR)$ $Williams-Sonoma(WSM)$ $Stryker(SYK)$

1.Monetary Tailwinds & Commodity Prices.We’re seeing the amassing of major monetary tailwinds heading into 2026.Historically this kind of shift to easing has lit a fire under commodities.(and ultimately: inflation) 2.Follow the Leader...Gold has blazed the path, commodity catch-up comes next.Here's why we need to prepare for a new cyclical bull market in commodities: 3.Shortage of growth stocks?(and glut of value stocks 🤔 )p.s. the latest figures (28 Dec 2025) are Growth Stocks: 396, Value Stocks: 876. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.🎉Cash Boost Account Now Supports 35,000+ Stocks &am

1.2025 saw a *spectacular* surge in ETF launches...This chart is basically a gauge of speculation and risk appetite.As with many sentiment type indicators, you have a better time in the stock market when it’s troughed and turning up vs surging and climaxing after an extended run. 2.Beware of "obvious"!! 🚨 ⚠️ The ironic thing in markets is that once you have all the evidence, once everyone agrees, once the theme becomes obvious...It's almost always *obviously wrong*case in point 👇 (global equities, esp. Europe & Emerging Markets, handily outperformed US equities this year) For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.

1.One of the biggest surprises (for most people) was how well Global ex-US Equities did this year.(both absolute + relative to US)And arguably still room to run...2.Burgeoning Bear...They say: "If in doubt, just zoom out." And in zooming out for the US dollar, the pattern of price action becomes clear; it looks like a bear.3.Global commodity stocks undertook a major breakout this year.(and they're likely just beginning...) For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.🎉Cash Boost Account Now Supports 35,000+ Stocks & ETFs – Greater Flexibility NowFind out more here.Complete your first Cash Boos

1.Chinese Tech Stocks were a classic contrarian bull setup at the turn of the year -- and went on to deliver spectacular performance.Important reminder to check your biases (and information sources).Many people missed this... 2.A new cyclical bull market began in Commodities this year.With valuation indicators still cheap, technicals turning up, and a number of other tailwinds in play, this is going to be a key chart + asset class to watch in 2026! 👀 🧐 🤔 For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.🎉Cash Boost Account Now Supports 35,000+ Stocks & ETFs – Greater Flexibility NowFind out more he

Here's the relative performance line for consumer staples -- you can see how the extremes in relative value were created.Staples lagged behind into the dot com peak, and gained ground during the 08 crash.More recently they have basically lagged for the past decade during the rise of big tech.Staples are described as defensive for this reason (healthcare, utilities, and sometimes REITs and gold miners, among others also fall into this category). $S&P 500(.SPX)$ You can kind of think of staples' relative performance line as a synthetic asset (i.e. long staples vs short S&P500). That synthetic asset did very well in 2022 (and did ok [briefly!] in March 2020, April 2025).This synthetic asset is now very cheap, and will probably serve as a dece