The current US financial market has flashed a very strong red warning signal: a strong dollar may return, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) is likely to experience a short-to-medium-term impulsive upward rally in the near future. From a technical perspective in the futures market, the DXY has broken through crucial resistance levels. Following the typical price action rules of a "head and shoulders bottom" pattern, the dollar's rise could mirror the previous decline in crude oil, triggering an impulsive upward trend of significant magnitude: $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund(UDN)$ $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund(UUP)$</

Over the past week, renewed military clashes between the United States and Iran have shaken global equity markets, while gold has retreated sharply from recent highs and overall risk appetite has come under pressure. The situation on the ground remains highly uncertain, with persistent geopolitical tensions interacting with shifting macro expectations; most investors are adopting a cautious stance, waiting for subsequent key U.S. economic data releases in order to better gauge the Federal Reserve’s policy path and the trajectory of asset prices. As of around 4:00 p.m. on 12 June 2026, the weekly performance of major assets is as follows: In an environment where macro expectations are oscillating, looking at price moves alone is no longer sufficient to capture the main drivers of asset perf

In the latest week, US-Iran negotiations remained deadlocked. On May 18, Trump said that the military action against Iran originally scheduled for May 19 would be postponed, indicating that the US-Iran standoff did not escalate further this week. At the same time, the US publicly stated that the talks with Iran had made “significant progress,” while also saying that a “Plan B” was already prepared, which suggests that the substantive differences between the two sides have not been resolved. In addition to the ongoing market pricing of disruptions stemming from the Middle East situation, investors are also closely watching the progress of SpaceX, Elon Musk’s space company, which could potentially stage the “largest IPO in history.” As of 3:00 p.m. on May 21, 2026, the weekly performance of

What exactly does CFTC data tell us? Why are non-commercial positions the most critical? The core value of the CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) report is not to tell us whether prices will rise or fall, but to reveal who is driving prices. Market price movements are essentially the result of capital flows and competition among different types of participants, and the CFTC data allows us to observe these groups separately. Among the three categories of positions, commercial traders typically engage in hedging, meaning their behavior is driven more by risk management than directional views. Non-reportable positions are relatively small and have limited influence on overall trends. The real driving force behind sustained price movements comes from non-commercial positions—speculative ca

Over the past week, the situation in the Middle East has presented a state of "extreme stalemate, neither war nor peace." Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, the United States briefly initiated "Operation Liberty" in an attempt to escort trapped vessels out. However, following a strong response from Iran, US President Donald Trump officially announced the suspension of the plan on May 5, citing the "acceptance of Pakistani mediation." During this period, Iranian officials reiterated that the strait would not reopen unless dictated by national will, leaving energy supply chain risks elevated. On May 7, local time, a new round of military conflict erupted between the US and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the sudden outbreak of hostilities, US President Donald Trump insisted that the US-

What is CFTC Data? Why Must We Watch It? The Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released weekly by the CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission), serves as one of the key references for global futures market fund flows. Its greatest value lies in breaking down market participants, allowing us to see "who is buying and who is selling." CFTC categorizes market positions primarily into three groups: Non-Commercial Positions: Mainly speculative funds such as hedge funds and CTAs, representing the most sensitive and directional forces in the market. Commercial Positions: Industry clients using them for hedging, with weaker directionality. Non-Reportable Positions: Small funds, with minimal impact. Among these, non-commercial positions are the core focus. The reason is simple: these fun

Over the past week, the Middle East situation has been marked by a ceasefire that remains temporarily in place, stalled negotiations, and no meaningful improvement in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. On April 21, Iran declined to attend the second round of U.S.-Iran talks scheduled for April 22. The United States then extended the ceasefire period and said it would maintain maritime pressure and military deterrence until Iran submits a unified proposal. This suggests that developments are not moving toward smooth diplomatic progress.As for the Strait of Hormuz, market attention has shifted from whether it is nominally open to whether actual shipping has truly resumed. The latest reports still point to disrupted transit, indicating that although the ceasefire framework has not collaps

I. CFTC Positioning Data: Understanding the “Language of Smart Money” Many people focus only on prices, but what truly drives prices is where the money is positioned. The Commitments of Traders (COT) report released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) translates this “language of money” into indicators that ordinary investors can understand. The “soul” of this report lies in two dimensions: who is holding positions, and whether they are long or short. CFTC positioning data classifies participants into three major categories: commercial positions (hedgers), non-commercial positions (speculators/funds), and non-reportable positions (retail traders). Among these, the most critical are non-commercial positions—funds, hedge funds, and large institutions whose objective is pr

On the week of April 7, the latest Commitment of Traders (CFTC) data release from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission immediately ignited market discussions: stock index futures saw intensified multi-force tug-of-war, crude oil longs staged a strong comeback, while precious metals like gold saw funds quietly exiting. This isn't random volatility—it's a clear signal of big money "rotating tracks"! Want to know who's adding positions and who's retreating? Read this article, and you'll easily grasp the market's next rhythm. Commitment of Traders Report Basics: The "Three Keys" to CFTC Data The CFTC Commitment of Traders report is like the market's "sentiment barometer," released every Friday with Tuesday's futures position data to reveal true capital intentions. No worries

Since April 9, developments between the United States and Iran have broadly followed a pattern of “ceasefire implementation and advancing negotiations, but fragile execution and unresolved disagreements.” After the two-week temporary ceasefire entered the implementation stage, the Strait of Hormuz nominally resumed limited shipping, yet the actual volume of vessel traffic remained extremely low, suggesting that maritime tensions had not genuinely eased. Then, on April 10 and 11, the United States and Iran held high-level talks in Islamabad, discussing sanctions arrangements, ceasefire boundaries, and navigation through the strait. Despite the lengthy discussions, however, no substantive breakthrough was achieved. From April 13 to 15, there were brief expectations that the ceasefire might b

This week, ahead of the deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump, the U.S. and Iran reached a temporary two-week ceasefire agreement on April 7, brokered by Pakistan. Under the agreement, Iran consented to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for controlled navigation and submitted a "10-Point Peace Proposal," which includes the lifting of sanctions, as a foundation for subsequent comprehensive negotiations. However, less than a day into the ceasefire, Israel launched a surprise attack on Lebanon, causing the situation to deteriorate rapidly. Before the ceasefire could even take effect, conflicts escalated. Iran reacted swiftly, declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed once again and threatening to consider withdrawing from the U.S.-Iran talks. Following this series of changes, the market's barely-

This week, the crude oil market and gold-silver prices have both seen heavy volatility. Gold plunged sharply, effectively wiping out three months of gains. As for the reason behind the move, some people say Trump is once again talking too much and “drawing candlesticks with his mouth,” but today let’s dig into the data and take a closer look. Let’s start with the COT data released by the CFTC, and we’ll also go through The Flow Show data. First, let’s clarify two concepts: what exactly are the CFTC data and The Flow Show? In commodity futures research, exchange-traded activity can be understood as trading futures contracts. The rules are standardized by the exchange, including contract size, quality, delivery month, and delivery location, and then the clearinghouse handles centralized clea

Remember at the beginning of the year, numerous reports projected that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates four times. However, following the surge in oil prices, the market has swung from one extreme to another. Today, hardly anyone dares to anticipate any rate cuts this year. In fact, working backward from the latest U.S. Treasury yield data, the market has even begun to price in potential rate hikes starting in October. This dramatic shift—going from extreme euphoria to sheer panic in just two to three weeks—clearly demonstrates that market trends are currently driven by future sentiment and expectations rather than genuine, medium-to-long-term fundamental changes. Investors must deeply understand this reality. Predictably, if the strait blockade eventually concludes and rate c

Futures traders, come on over. Today we’re continuing our look at the COT data released by the CFTC.In previous sessions, I also added some off-exchange flow data for context, such as ETF fund-flow data. Today, we’re not just covering the CFTC numbers; we’ll also go through The Flow Show data.Before we begin, let’s clarify two concepts: what exactly are the CFTC data and The Flow Show?In commodity futures research, exchange-traded activity can be understood as trading standardized futures contracts. The exchange sets the rules, including contract size, quality specifications, delivery month, and delivery location, and the clearinghouse handles centralized clearing. ETFs, which most people are familiar with, are also exchange-traded instruments, so they belong to the on-exchange market rath

If you want to trade futures, then CFTC data is something you really shouldn’t ignore. The CFTC is the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which you can think of as the regulator of the U.S. futures market. Every week, it publishes large-trader positioning data that tells you which side the big money is on.​ So today, let’s go through the latest set of CFTC data.​ Before we begin, let me briefly explain what CFTC data actually is. The CFTC report tracks positions in futures contracts, and these are divided into reportable positions and non-reportable positions. Reportable positions are further split into commercial and non-commercial positions. You can think of commercial positions as those held by industrial capital, such as mines, smelters, manufacturers, and other business entiti

First, I want to share a screenshot from my previous analysis of silver and gold price action. In that earlier piece, I said silver’s short-term top—assuming the Fed did not turn more hawkish and there was no black-swan surge in the U.S. dollar—should be above 130, while gold could be headed above 5,000. A little over a week later, silver has already printed a new high, and gold has also surged well past 5,000. $白银主连 2603(SImain)$ $白银2603(SI2603)$ $2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares(AGQ)$ $白银ETF-iShares(SLV)$ $微白银主连 2603(SILmain)$

Last week’s macro framework is still working this week, and Trump has kicked off yet another farce: he floated the idea of purchasing Greenland from Europe and also imposed tariffs on eight European countries that opposed him.​ The situation has become even more turbulent.Why Trump Threatened 11 Countries in Just Two Weeks: The Dollar on the Edge Tells the StoryThis is almost certainly not the last step in Trump’s external provocation, but it is very likely an important move within his broader foreign strategy.​Today, let’s take a little time to briefly discuss the logic behind the Greenland dispute.First, one point must be clarified: why is Trump deliberately stirring trouble in his own “backyard”?​ One day it’s Venezu

As expected from last week’s outlook, after silver posted its first “top-and-drop” move, silver futures have staged another sharp rebound exactly one week later. As discussed previously, silver rarely tops out with a clean inverted-V reversal based on its historical price behavior; more commonly, it forms a second rebound on the weekly chart and only then peaks again and rolls over, and that second rebound often appears about one week after the first peak-and-selloff.Review: Can the trading distribution of silver futures options “leak” the future path for silver?$白银主连 2603(SImain)$ $微白银主连 2603(SILmain)$

After the policy outcomes from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan were released, the market’s largest near-term risk window has largely passed.​Based on how price action has responded so far, the Santa rally has very likely begun; historically, it typically runs from late December into early January, and U.S. equities have a high probability of grinding higher with choppy gains during this period.​What’s more, while mega-cap tech looks expensive, the overall valuation of the equal-weight S&P 500 is not particularly stretched, so over the coming week it may be worth considering a strategy of selling weekly put options on Nasdaq futures with strikes below the 20-week moving average.​At the same time, it also makes sense to prepare in advance for a potential explosive move in commo