AfraSimon
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One Stock for Your Entire Life

One Stock for Your Entire Life
avatarAfraSimon
12-09 14:39

Best Cross-Sector Risk-Reward Picks

Which name is the best risk-reward play?Fallen Angels:- $PayPal(PYPL)$ at $62- $Adobe(ADBE)$ at $346- $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ at $48- $Duolingo, Inc.(DUOL)$ at $200- $FI at $67- $Trade Desk Inc.(TTD)$ at $40AI:- $IREN Ltd(IREN)$ at $45- $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ at $98- $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ at $182- $Cipher Mining Inc.(CIFR)$ at 19- $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ at $455Crypto
Best Cross-Sector Risk-Reward Picks
avatarAfraSimon
12-08 14:52

DOCN: Quiet Strength, Big Catalyst Ahead

I continue adding to $DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc.(DOCN)$ . The guy who was acting as *both* the CTO and CPO resigned on November 26th, and the stock didn't flinch.It's actually up over 7% since that day. Something that should've created uncertainty...was completely absorbed? I noted this.Now just go recruit an elite CTO, and I think the stock will go nuts. This is a catalyst for me now...something to look forward to.They seem to be pushing upmarket, which I love. Reminds me a little of Shopify, which started almost exclusively as a tool for small businesses and expanded into enterprise as they grew.I see the same situation unfolding with DOCN...as clients grow, DOCN grows with them.Q3 moves gave DOCN a cleaner balance sheet, more flexibility, and
DOCN: Quiet Strength, Big Catalyst Ahead
avatarAfraSimon
12-08 14:50

TSLA’s December Surprise Pattern

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ + surprise news in December? There's a pattern.Musk LOVES to enter a new year with a "storyline reset".Almost every major sentiment shift for Tesla happens around December. Look back at 2018-2024, there was always some magic in December (see attached graphic).Last Friday, someone bet $2.15M that TSLA would hit $490 by the end of the coming week (Dec 12)....and there's other highly unusual options trades betting on a big move for TSLA this month.Musk never closes out the year quietly. One idea I'm watching:- trump just announced approval of "the manufacturing of tiny cars in America."👀- musk just launched "cheaper versions" of model 3 in Europe 2 DAYS AGO.Trump’s announcement about ‘tiny cars made in America’ lines up suspicio
TSLA’s December Surprise Pattern

How $HIMS Leveraged Ozempic’s Brand to Disrupt $NVO

When Ozempic went viral in the media because of celebrities such as Kim Kardashian allegedly using it for weight loss, the demand exploded. While that drove sales and enabled $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ to demand a high price, it also pushed the government to increase the supply, thus, the FDA declared a shortage.When compounding began, the demand for Semaglutide was significantly greater than for $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ 's Tirzepatide, because the latter lacked brand familiarity.Everyone knew Ozempic and wanted to get their hands on it.Companies such as $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ actively marketed that they were using the same ingredient as Ozempic.Directly aiming t
How $HIMS Leveraged Ozempic’s Brand to Disrupt $NVO

Which portfolio will have the best return in 5 years?

Which portfolio will have the best return in 5 years?

NFLX/WBD – Streaming Empire Expansion

🚨 $Netflix(NFLX)$ Buying $Warner Bros. Discovery(WBD)$ for $82.7B 🚨This is an ERA-Ending Transformational Deal!The "small-upstart" that was once "doomed to lose" to Hollywood giants once they took streaming seriously, is buying out the biggest, most storied, and most famous movie studio, Warner Bros, and the "King of Premium Television" HBO.If 5 years ago you had told media "experts" and Wall Street analysts that Netflix would buy Warner Bros, they would have asked, "What are you smoking, and where can I get some"?Yet here we are.So what does this mean, and what are the implications?🔴 The Losers:1) The ConsumerThere is no doubt about it. Content quality will go down, and prices will go up. 2) Cinemas were
NFLX/WBD – Streaming Empire Expansion

Top 10 Long-Term Buys vs. Avoids

Top 10 Long-Term Buys vs. Avoids

SOFI – S&P 500 Inclusion Setup

$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ will be included in the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ during tonight's rebalancing announcement. We've seen this movie before.When $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ joined the S&P, the company announced a $1.5B offering three weeks before the inclusion news.When $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ joined the S&P, they had two offerings in three months...one was 8 weeks before inclusion news, one was just days before the inclusion news. Sounds familiar?SOFI just announced a $1.5B offering...today is the rebalancing & inclusion announcement, which would officially go into effect on December 19th (2 weeks o
SOFI – S&P 500 Inclusion Setup

HROW: Institutional Interest Ignites Rally

$Harrow Health Inc(HROW)$ +12% 🟢The company just attended the Piper Sandler Healthcare Conference and got an overwhelmingly positive response. Institutional investors are finally realising $HROW potential.1) Melt 300 will be huge. This is Harrow's recently acquired non-opioid sedative that's highly effective for eye care procedures. Already, just this use case is massive. However, Harrow is planning to partner with other pharmaceutical companies to expand to new verticals, such as dental, plastic surgery, dermatology, and anxiety sedation.2) They are also seeking partners to potentially sell Melt internationally.3) VEVYE, their potential blockbuster dry eye disease drug, has doubled market share in just 2 quarters. Recently, it received a preferre
HROW: Institutional Interest Ignites Rally

UBER & NBIS: Dallas Robotaxi Launch Marks Major Breakthrough for Avride

$Uber(UBER)$ and $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ Avride launching robotaxis in Dallas is a bigger deal than most think 🟢- NBIS Avride becomes only the 3rd company in the US behind $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ and $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ offering paid robotaxi trips. This puts them in the same league as these trillion-dollar companies, despite being a small start-up.- This is also an extremely important symbolic milestone. Today, Avride's valuation in the eyes of potential investors has likely multiplied many times. - I wouldn't be surprised if Avride does a large raise in the next few months at a valuation significantly higher than the last $375M rai
UBER & NBIS: Dallas Robotaxi Launch Marks Major Breakthrough for Avride

OPEN: Bold Bet on a High-Conviction CEO Turnaround

I have a gut feeling that $Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ is going to win in a very, very big way.I usually despise these retail-heavy/hyped plays, but I'll tell you what's different with this one...Kaz Nejatian.There's always that guy. Zuck is that guy. Elon is that guy. I think Kaz can be that guy.Not gonna flaunt his resume or give you facts about the guy. I don't need to.Stuff is actually happening.> ceo bought $1M worth of OPEN with personal funds> original founders re-joined & re-invested $40M> going all-in on AI & leaning out headcount> new team> vocal on social media + man of the people> unreal network + partnership opps> massive addressable marketThe thing with elite CEOs, it doesn't matter if their current
OPEN: Bold Bet on a High-Conviction CEO Turnaround

SNAP: Tight-Risk Swing Setup Targeting 10%+ Rebound

$Snap Inc(SNAP)$ 1-2 week swing idea on everyone's *favorite* stock, If you guys know SNAP, you know it acts like your crazy ex girlfriend.BUT I'm comfortable with the risk level on the chart, which (for me) is a daily close under $7.50.So I'm risking sixteen cents on the downside, for a 10%+ move back over $8.50.Put/call ratio is 0.23 since Nov 1st, per bullflowio, meaning tons of call buying activity. Smaller catalyst I'm watching during holiday shopping is SNAP's shoppable ecommerce AR experience that's available through new year's eve.SNAP now $7.66. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here.Complete
SNAP: Tight-Risk Swing Setup Targeting 10%+ Rebound

Comprehensive Robotics Investing Map

Don't overlook these little comments. They reveal a lot about future plans.Robotics can be far bigger than anyone expects.Here's my updated list..(bookmark this puppy):Logistics: $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Symbotic Inc.(SYM)$ $Serve Robotics Inc.(SERV)$ $AUTOSTORE HLDGS LTD.(AUTSF)$ $GXO Logistics Inc(GXO)$ Mobility Robotics: $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ Robotics Software: $NVIDI
Comprehensive Robotics Investing Map

𝗧𝗵𝗲𝗺𝗲𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸

𝗧𝗵𝗲𝗺𝗲𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸:𝗥𝗼𝗯𝗼𝘁𝗶𝗰𝘀 $Richtech Robotics(RR)$ +18.54% $Serve Robotics Inc.(SERV)$ +18.24% $Arbe Robotics Ltd.(ARBE)$ +14.60% $Microbot Medical Inc(MBOT)$ +12.67% $PROCEPT BioRobotics(PRCT)$ +12.36% $PALLADYNE AI CORP(PDYN)$ +10.02%𝗡𝘂𝗰𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗿 $Uranium(UEC)$ +7.65% $NuScale Power(SMR)$ +6.50% $Oklo Inc.(OKLO)$ +5.17%𝗦𝗽𝗮𝗰𝗲 $Virgin Galactic(SPCE)$ +11.54%
𝗧𝗵𝗲𝗺𝗲𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸

IREN Growth Realities vs. Hype

$IREN Ltd(IREN)$ raising $2B in notes is part of the course, and there will be more raises.IREN certainly is a very promising AI infrastructure company, but some investors have delusional aspirations.IREN will not generate $29B in revenues from 3GW in 3 years as some claim.The $Microsoft(MSFT)$ deal costs $8.8B to bring 200MW online. That is $44M per MW to have a bare metal facility.If IREN were to turn 3GW into bare metal, they would need $132B.There is just no reasonable scenario in which they raise that kind of money. Yes, MSFT will provide pre-payments and $Dell Technologies Inc.(DELL)$ vendor financing for GPUs, maybe $
IREN Growth Realities vs. Hype

IREN Dilutes Now to Save Shares Later

Why is $IREN Ltd(IREN)$ selling shares and diluting shareholders now, instead of letting notes convert in 2029/30?They are doing it to save 20M shares.Let me explain.- $550M $13.64 2029 Note=40.3M shares- $400M $16.81 2030 Note=23.8M shares- Total share count = 64.1M sharesTo repay them IREN must convert them now at a negotiated price, so let's use yesterday's price of $48- 2029 Note ($48-13.64)*40.3M=$1.38B- 2030 Note ($48-16.81)*23.8M=$742M- Total Conversion costs = $2.1BTo get $2.1B from yesterday's price of $48, $IREN must sell 44M shares.So, to not have to issue 64M shares in 2029 and 2030, $IREN must issue 44M shares now. That is a net benefit of 20M shares.*Minus legal fees, transaction costs. *Also we don't know the final conversion price,
IREN Dilutes Now to Save Shares Later

IREN Needs $2–3B in 12 Months, Not $8.8B Upfront

There is some confusion regarding when $IREN Ltd(IREN)$ needs capital to cover the costs of $Microsoft(MSFT)$ data center.No, IREN doesn't have an "immense urgent challenge" of securing the estimated $8.8B it will cost ($3B construction +$5.8B GPUs)Nobody pays for $8.8B project with a single check, money is paid in stages as milestones are met. 1) MSFT agreed on a $1.94B pre-payment, this is enough for 65% of the $3B construction costs.2) The deal with $Dell Technologies Inc.(DELL)$ said that Iren pays for GPUs on delivery, not before. In practice, this means that Dell will issue Iren a 60-90 day invoice when equipment is delivered.3) Dell already agreed for a $1
IREN Needs $2–3B in 12 Months, Not $8.8B Upfront

IREN–MSFT Deal: Why the Math Shows Strong Long-Term Profitability, Not Losses

Some people really don't understand the math behind large infrastructure projects. $IREN Ltd(IREN)$ - 5-Year $Microsoft(MSFT)$ contract is $9.7B- At 85% margin, that's $8.25B EBITDA- Construction $3B - GPU and other infra $5.8B- Total cost $8.8B vs $8.25B in EBITDASome look at this and say, "IREN will lose $555M on the MSFT deal." That's not how it works, you don't recoup a 20-year capex investment with a 5-year contract.1) You must amortise the $3B construction expense over the 20-year useful life, which is $150M per year, so $750M over 5 years.2) That $5.8B is not just GPUs, it also includes likely networking, cooling, storage, and others. GPUs useful life is 4 years, but that other equipment has 6-10.
IREN–MSFT Deal: Why the Math Shows Strong Long-Term Profitability, Not Losses

PATH: AI-Driven Layoff Trend Sets Up a Potential Round-Two Rally

We've all seen the layoff headlines, most of which are due to AI.But which companies actually benefit from this...like who's providing the "ai automation"? $UiPath(PATH)$ can be one of the big winners here. Earnings on Wednesday after close can be a catalyst.Partnerships with $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Snowflake(SNOW)$, OpenAI, and even $Alphabet(GOOG)$ . Took this from $13 to $18 in October, and looking for round 2 now.Daily & weekly charts both look ready again, there's a huge base building.PATH now $13.85, my levels of interest are shown on the chart screenshot attached.Run it backkk. For SG users only, welcome to open a CBA
PATH: AI-Driven Layoff Trend Sets Up a Potential Round-Two Rally

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