Tesla: Laying Out The $4.5 Trillion Target

seekingalpha2022-11-13

SummaryElon Musk has made a bold claim, betting that his company could be worth more than Apple and Saudi Aramco combined.We outline the case in which Tesla could achieve this valuation, and how it ...

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Guavaxf30
·2022-11-14
Sorry, but coming from Elon, I am afraid it's less worth paying attention to now. Unless he says he is exiting Tesla.....
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ISSEY1413
·2022-11-14
[LOL] [LOL]
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1
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- ISSEY1413:
  [Tongue] [LOL]
  2022-11-14
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- ISSEY1413:
  [Tongue] [Facepalm] [Grin]
  2022-11-14
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- ISSEY1413:
  [LOL] [Surprised] [Facepalm]
  2022-11-14
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KYHBKO
·2022-11-14
The value of a company should be based on the realized potential. If we based on potential alone, almost every company would be undervalued. All are great in our dreams but reality narrows the competition. I said this as a Tesla investor. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.
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15
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- JLSE:
  👍👍
  2022-11-18
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- MarcusChan:
  cool
  2022-11-15
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- KYHBKO:
  all the best
  2022-11-14
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Sphere
·2022-11-14
Up
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1
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- LEESIMON:
  ‌[爱心] ‌Have faith with TESLA. is better than others‌[爱心] ‌
  2022-11-14
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- Sphere:
  Up
  2022-11-14
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FrankieTok
·2022-11-14
Ok
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1
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WKB
·2022-11-14
Ok
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1
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MIe
·2022-11-14
Tesla set big dreams
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- GeorgeOr:
  yeah
  2022-11-14
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ericbqlee
·2022-11-14
🙂
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2
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- 3nn:
  Ok
  2022-11-14
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kwwh
·2022-11-14
Okay
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3
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- kwwh:
  Okay
  2022-11-14
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andrew123
·2022-11-14
Like
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3
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小金钱袋
·2022-11-14
Like
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3
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- TidusToh:
  ok
  2022-11-14
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Newbie_21
·2022-11-14
Ok
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4
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i am ok
·2022-11-14
ok
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5
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- i am ok:
  ok
  2022-11-14
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Sorrie2u
·2022-11-14
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
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7
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YJ Lee
·2022-11-14
Ok
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6
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- Usstock:
  Ok
  2022-11-14
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- xinxino:
  Ok
  2022-11-14
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- Sorrie2u:
  ok
  2022-11-14
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CaseyLKC
·2022-11-14
Great, this is the valuable stock and strong cash cow to hold for long term
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8
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- Newbie_21:
  Ok
  2022-11-14
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- Ghostwalker:
  ok
  2022-11-14
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- 月亮湾湾照狮城:
  great
  2022-11-14
  Reply
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miker9110
·2022-11-13
O
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4
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Greg2021
·2022-11-13
Nice
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3
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- AudTKH:
  K
  2022-11-14
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kwk
·2022-11-13
K
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2
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NPC69
·2022-11-13
K
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He expressed that for the first time he sees a way Tesla could be valued more than Apple (AAPL) and Saudi Aramco (ARMCO) combined, or twice Saudi Aramco.I see a potential path for Tesla to be worth more than Apple and Saudi Aramco combined. So, now that doesn't mean it will happen or that will be easy. In fact, I think it will be very difficult. It will require a lot of work, some very creative new products, manage expansion and always the luck. (Elon Musk, Q3 Earnings Call)This is not the first time Elon has made such bold claims, similar to 2017 when he predicted that Tesla had the potential to become worth more than Apple, which was then worth $700BN. At that time, Tesla was valued at only $25BN, leading many media outlets to label the claim as \"insane,\" although Tesla surpassed the $700BN mark in January 2021.We think Tesla is significantly undervalued for long-term investors and believe Tesla can live up to its expectations of becoming a $4.5T company in the next 8-10 years. Here's why.Disruptive EV AdoptionTo understand where Tesla is headed, we must first look at where the car market in general is headed. Old car manufacturers and large manufacturers of ICE vehicles seem to be up to their ears in debt. As you can see below, some automakers have debt in excess of $100 billion, while Tesla has net debt that is actually negative because they have $21 billion in cash and virtually no debt.Author's Visualisation, Seeking Alpha DataThis means that in an industry changing toward EVs, they will have to compete while buried in debt attributable to their old ICE vehicles that required intensive investment, compared to battery electric vehicles (BEVs), which are made for the future and immediate profit. Especially in an environment where interest rates are rising at record rates and debt is becoming more expensive to repay.And only a small percentage of car sales are currently BEVs. In the second quarter of this year, only 5.6% of car sales were BEVs, or 12.6% if hybrid vehicles are included. Although we can look at a country, that could be a telltale sign of what the future might look like. Last year, 91.5% of all cars registered in Norway were BEVs or hybrids. This change was quite rapid, as in 2016, 5 years earlier, only 29.1% were plug-in vehicles.But if we look at who has the most market share, it seems pretty clear. Model Y and Model 3 dominate. For the last quarter of October this year, Tesla's market share is 19.36% of all BEVs, which overall make up the most car sales in the country. And while an assumption of 20% market share when it comes to Tesla may seem absurd to some, in 1961 GM (GM) had a 50.7% market share and Ford (F) had a 29.3% market share. While both currently have a market share of only nearly 15% and declining.Tesla IRLithium Is The New OilWe think it is no coincidence that Elon Musk specifically chose Apple and Saudi Aramco as the 2 companies with market capitalization that he would like to surpass. In a sense, Tesla stands for the proposition that \"Lithium is the new oil\" and is competing with Saudi Aramco when it comes to energy in the form of batteries/solar cells. The comparison to Apple, in a way, is Tesla's ambition to derive revenue from its software (FSD Beta) and supercomputers (Dojo) and robotics/automation. Technically, a Tesla is a giant computer on wheels.But looking deeper into batteries, there are many factors that we believe investors have yet to recognize. One is the cost reduction of batteries and battery packs. Indeed, the battery pack is still currently the most expensive part of an EV, and they are falling dramatically. In 2010, for example, the price per kWh for a battery pack was $1220, and that dropped to $132 last year. In China, the price for a battery pack is seemingly already at $111 per kWh.Author's Visualisation, Bloomberg DataThis plays a crucial role since at $100 per kWh EVs should have the same sticker price as ICE vehicles. Currently, it can already be cheaper to operate an EV (fuel costs, maintenance, etc.), although the sticker price is still above that of an EV. But when that paradigm changes, it should become particularly unattractive from an economic standpoint to buy an ICE vehicle since it is more expensive to buy and operate. Especially if EV prices continue to fall below the sticker prices of ICE vehicles.According to Wright's law, for example, for every cumulative doubling of the number of units produced, the cost should fall by a constant percentage. For Lithium-Ion batteries, this appears to be 28%. BloombergNEF forecasts the price of Lithium-Ion batteries at $62 per kWh by 2030, while we think it will be significantly lower because it has also been heavily underestimated in the past. In the latest earnings call, Elon Musk told investors that once the 4680 battery cell is fully integrated, he believes there is a path to $70 per kWh cell. That would already be less than the $80 per kWh target set by Renault and Ford for 2030.Perhaps the craziest part is that he told investors that would be \"before any incentive.\" As recently, with the Inflation Reduction Act, Tesla will likely meet the tax credit offers $35 per kWh for each battery cell, and $10 per kWh for each battery module, which would bring the price per kWh down to $25. Tesla says it is doing all it can, going \"pedal to the metal\" to provide 1,000 GWh of batteries per year. According to our calculations, that would be enough to build more than 10 million EVs a year with Tesla's batteries alone.Tesla's Operational LeverageYet another factor, which is usually not considered, is Tesla's tremendous operating leverage compared to its industry competitors. And we believe that this will only improve through down the cost curve, economies of scale and operational efficiencies. In the chart below, you can see how little additional operating cost is actually incurred, even as production scales.TIKR TerminalFor example, Tesla's adjusted EBITDA margin in the first quarter of 2022 was 26.8%, which we believe they should be able to bring to 30% over the next 8 to 10 years, attributable to operational efficiencies, economies of scale, 4680 battery cells and more. For example, one of the more overlooked areas where Tesla is pushing the limits in cost reduction is their way of manufacturing with a Giga Press.They are basically trying to make complete cars the same way toy cars are made, with a giant Giga press of 9,000 tons of power. When they first floated the idea, the 6 machine manufacturers said outright \"no,\" probably because it seemed like an extremely challenging job. One manufacturer said \"maybe,\" and that ended up being IDRA, which currently makes Tesla's Giga presses.Tesla IRAnd perhaps most importantly, Tesla's new platform they are developing, which will be smaller than the Model 3 and Model Y, but half the cost of those models. In the latest earnings call, Elon Musk explained how they are working on being able to make two cars for the amount of effort it currently takes to make one Model 3. He also said that production of this platform should exceed production of all other models combined.Tesla is very adaptive when it comes to innovation and new operational efficiencies, often removing unnecessary parts or finding and adapting technical inefficiencies to new iterations while still vertically integrating production.Software RevenuesAnd now perhaps Tesla's most controversial (future) revenue stream: Full Self Driving Beta (FSD), RoboTaxi, and their AI as in Dojo and Optimus. Although some still think autonomous vehicles are impossible, they are actually already here. And it's probably a matter of \"when\" Tesla solves fully autonomous driving, rather than an \"if.\"Driverless vehicles and automation have made a lot of progress recently, without too much attention in the mainstream media. Companies like Waymo and Cruise have already recently started operating fleets of RoboTaxis in cities like San Francisco, albeit on pre-mapped routes and their cars are equipped with many additional sensors, and often Lidar/radar. Tesla is trying to solve the autonomous issue with vision.As you can see from the graph below, the number of cumulative miles driven with FSD Beta is going up exponentially. Even before it has been widely released. This should continue to develop exponentially, especially since we are very close to a large-scale beta release, which is expected to come any day now. Tesla has a huge data advantage, as almost its entire fleet of cars is equipped with cameras that can perform FSD. And this should continue to grow as Tesla delivers millions more cars to this existing fleet.Tesla IRCompared to Waymo and Cruise, Tesla simply already has a fleet of millions ready to be deployed once FSD is capable of being many times safer than the average driver, and can be loaned out by its owners when their car is not operational. Fun fact: cars spend 95% of their operational time parked in cities. Elon Musk said in a recent interview that autonomous cars should become roughly 5 times more useful, but cost the same amount of money to build.Tesla currently already rakes in 25-30% gross margin. If Tesla solves overall autonomy and a car becomes 5x more useful, that completely changes Tesla's valuation. During the last earnings call, Elon Musk told investors that the team is making a lot of progress with the RoboTaxi platform. We think this platform will come in 2024 at the earliest, but it could be later. We do see it as an inevitability, given how close Tesla is getting to solving generalized autonomy.For critics, we highly recommend looking at Tesla's latest FSD Beta (10.69.3) and comparing it to where FSD Beta was 2 years ago. In our view, humans are capable of driving using vision, and a neural net should eventually be able to do so as well once it has been trained enough and given enough data.Putting The Pieces TogetherIf our assumptions are correct, Tesla should be able to reach its market capital of $4.5 billion in 8-10 years. It would do this by capturing most of the EV market, as in Norway (about 20%), which should amount to 20 million vehicles per year out of a total of 100 million vehicles produced annually by 2030-2032.As mentioned earlier, we believe that the cost reduction of lithium-ion batteries will significantly drive the transition to EVs even without the inflation-limiting law. We predict that EVs will reach the same price very soon, within 1-2 years, and that demand for EVs will exceed demand for ICE vehicles. We believe Tesla has a superior advantage because it has been producing EVs for 15 years and is still years ahead in terms of volume compared to U.S. automakers.Furthermore, we think the main threat to Tesla is Chinese automakers such as BYD (OTCPK:BYDDF), Li Auto (LI), NIO (NIO), XPeng (XPEV) and others, who have a clean balance sheet, have scaled up their production and can actually make EVs that can compete with Tesla's in terms of cost. As an even cheaper Tesla platform will be rolled out, we believe Tesla's demand will be much greater than its current supply, for which it still has a significant wait even at an annual production of 2 million cars by the end of 2022.Tesla IRI can't emphasize enough, we have excellent demand for Q4, and we expect to sell every car that we make for as far into future as we can see. So, the factories are running at full speed, and we're delivering every car we make and keeping operating margins strong. We are still a very small percentage of the total vehicles on the road. Of the 2 billion cars and trucks on the road, we only have about 3.5 million. So, we've got a long way to go to even reach 1% of the global fleet. (Elon Musk)At 20 million vehicles and a 30% operating margin, Tesla should be expected to bring in US$1T of revenue and US$300B of operating income. At a 15x multiple, similar and relatively conservative to other tech companies, Tesla should reach a US$4.5T valuation by 2030-2032, or larger than Apple and Saudi Aramco currently combined.Outside of competition from Chinese EVs, the only major risk we currently see is Tesla's production disruptions at its Giga Shanghai factory due to local regulators, or a lack of ability to produce enough batteries or problems along the way in scaling up their 4680 battery production.A smaller risk we might see at Twitter, as Elon already had to sell US$4BN in Tesla shares this week to fund Twitter's negative cash flow. We believe this was a one-time event and Twitter should have sufficient funding to continue its operations for the foreseeable future.The Bottom LineWith Q4 looking \"extremely good\" according to Elon Musk, and Tesla at record low valuations based on an EV to EBITDA multiple, we believe Tesla to be significantly undervalued given its growth and operational leverage. There are a lot of factors that could boost the share price of the stock in the coming months/year as well, such as Tesla's Semi, Cybertruck, Energy Storage ramp-up, and most important of all: a full-scale FSD Beta release.We believe Tesla to be able to reach a US$4.5T market cap with its automotive operations, albeit it being in the far future and requiring exceptional execution. A wide-scale release of Tesla's FSD Beta we believe could also lead to immense improvements of its autonomous platform, bringing us one step closer to autonomy and creating even more operational leverage.A series of successes and progress in its FSD beta could significantly boost the share price, as Tesla comes closer to reaching its infamous RoboTaxi platform.Data by YChartsThis article is written by Wright's Research for reference only. Please note the risks.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9969888412,"gmtCreate":1668400336536,"gmtModify":1676538050692,"author":{"id":"3576140222331577","authorId":"3576140222331577","name":"Guavaxf30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ff15ff6aa254c9130f9af922f7e2447","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3576140222331577","authorIdStr":"3576140222331577"},"htmlText":"Sorry, but coming from Elon, I&nbsp;am afraid it's less worth paying attention to now. Unless he says he is exiting Tesla.....","listText":"Sorry, but coming from Elon, I&nbsp;am afraid it's less worth paying attention to now. Unless he says he is exiting Tesla.....","text":"Sorry, but coming from Elon, I am afraid it's less worth paying attention to now. Unless he says he is exiting Tesla.....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9969888412","repostId":2282045323,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9969113852,"gmtCreate":1668384492377,"gmtModify":1676538046860,"author":{"id":"3580024367177542","authorId":"3580024367177542","name":"ISSEY1413","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aae359514ad4455bfc28cf62f608a5e","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3dee1aa3a3a3c1814833a4d3f8a5669","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3580024367177542","authorIdStr":"3580024367177542"},"htmlText":"[LOL]&nbsp;[LOL]&nbsp;","listText":"[LOL]&nbsp;[LOL]&nbsp;","text":"[LOL] 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