PropNotes

    • PropNotesPropNotes
      ·11-08

      Lockheed Martin Should Benefit From Trump's 'Peace Through Strength' Approach

      Lockheed Martin's strong financials, stable revenues, and large backlog make it a 'Strong Buy', despite recent revenue slowdowns and slight margin deterioration. Trump's 'Peace Through Strength' approach is expected to boost defense spending, benefiting LMT's sales, margins, and EPS growth significantly over the next four years. LMT's valuation remains reasonable compared to peers, with the potential for higher multiples due to anticipated EPS growth under the Trump administration. We re-iterate our 'Strong Buy' rating on LMT. onurdongel/E+ via Getty Images Over the last year, we've written two separate articles on Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT), the top U.S. defense contractor. In our
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      Lockheed Martin Should Benefit From Trump's 'Peace Through Strength' Approach
    • PropNotesPropNotes
      ·11-07

      Powell Industries: Up 1,250% In 24 Months, But You Still Haven't Missed The Boat

      Powell Industries has experienced a 1,250% stock increase over the last 24 months due to strong demand for power distribution systems. POWL's financials show significant progress in sales, EPS, and margins, as the company has transformed from a breakeven outfit to a profitable mid-size firm. The company's valuation at 17x EV/EBITDA is reasonable, supported by energy & utility Capex, alongside a robust cash position with zero debt. We rate the stock a 'Strong Buy'. real444/E+ via Getty Images In case you've been living under a rock, Powell Industries (NASDAQ:POWL) has had one hell of a run. Over the last few years, the small, mostly unheard-of firm has grown substantially off the back of significant demand for power distribution systems
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      Powell Industries: Up 1,250% In 24 Months, But You Still Haven't Missed The Boat
    • PropNotesPropNotes
      ·11-07

      3 Reasons To Bet On Flutter's 'License To Print Money'

      FLUT's strong revenue growth, driven by FanDuel and expanding markets, positions it for continued top-line expansion, potentially reaching $20 billion by FY 2028. Operational improvements and margin expansion are expected to boost profitability, with operating margins projected to grow significantly, enhancing shareholder returns. Despite FLUT's breakeven status over the last twelve months, the company's future growth potential makes it an attractive investment. We rate FLUT a 'Strong Buy'. Michael Blann/DigitalVision via Getty Images In the world of business, a Gambling License is often referred to as a '
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      3 Reasons To Bet On Flutter's 'License To Print Money'
    • PropNotesPropNotes
      ·09-20

      Ares Capital: How Safe Is This 9.4% Yield?

      Summary Ares Capital (ARCC) is a high-quality BDC with a diversified loan portfolio and strong track record, making it a solid choice for high-income portfolios. ARCC's financials are robust, with a 12% IRR on its $25 billion portfolio and a well-covered 9.4% dividend yield. Despite potential risks from falling interest rates, ARCC's credit hedging and floating-rate debt offer some protection, though dividends may dip a little bit. Given its stability, diversification, and attractive yield, we rate ARCC a 'Buy' for income investors amid a thinning market for high-income opportunities. Grafissimo/iStock via Getty Images Over the last month or so, we've begun taking a look at BDCs as potential investment opportunities. By some measures, the group seems to be on the expensive side of things,
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      Ares Capital: How Safe Is This 9.4% Yield?
    • PropNotesPropNotes
      ·09-20

      Devon Energy: A Strong Yield From A Rock Solid Company

      Summary Devon Energy (DVN) is one of our top choices in the energy sector due to its strong financials, operational efficiency, and attractive valuation. The company boasts robust margins, low leverage, and a new strategic acquisition, positioning it well for an inevitable downturn, as well as new top line growth. The stock's valuation is compelling, currently trading with significant discounts on key metrics compared to both peers and historical multiples. To boost yield, consider selling the December 20th, $37.50 strike put options for a potential 14.1% annualized return. We rate DVN a 'Buy'. SimonSkafar Right now is an interesting time to be considering an investment into the energy sector (XLE). On one hand, many public oil companies ar
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      Devon Energy: A Strong Yield From A Rock Solid Company
    • PropNotesPropNotes
      ·09-19

      CONY: Don't Buy This Yield Trap

      Summary High-income option selling ETFs like CONY often erode principal value, which makes them a poor long-term investment despite high dividend yields. This fund's structure, involving U.S. treasuries and a synthetic COIN position, is an inefficient way to generate yield from option premiums. CONY outperforms slightly in down and sideways markets, but lags significantly in bull markets, which has lead to a dramatic gap in performance vs. the underlying. CONY may suit those needing immediate income, like late-stage retirees, or those who want to downshift a small percentage away from a 'full' COIN position. However, we think the fund is a poor choice for most. We rate CONY a 'Sell'. Klaus Vedfelt Over the years, we've made no secret of our distaste for 'high income' option selling ETFs th
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      CONY: Don't Buy This Yield Trap
    • PropNotesPropNotes
      ·09-19

      British American Tobacco: Gushing Cash And Finding New Growth Catalysts

      Summary We upgraded British American Tobacco to a 'Strong Buy' in January, and since then, the stock has crushed the market. Despite returning more than 40% YTD, BTI still appears undervalued, trading at 8x EPS with potential to reach 10-12x EPS and $50-60 per share over the medium term. The Company has shown significant growth in smokeless products, with modern oral products like Velo gaining market share - especially outside the U.S. We rate BTI a 'Buy'. _IB_/E+ via Getty Images In January of this year, we upgraded British American Tobacco (NYSE:BTI) to a 'Strong Buy' rating. In our article, titled "British American To
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      British American Tobacco: Gushing Cash And Finding New Growth Catalysts
    • PropNotesPropNotes
      ·09-17

      Apple: Multiple Avenues For Revenue Growth, But Very Expensive (Rating Downgrade)

      Summary Apple's stock is in a tricky spot. There are multiple avenues for management to re-ignite growth after a long period of stagnation, but the valuation reflects this fact. iPhone pricing, services pricing, and the potential to collect AI 'toll booth' fees should drive financials up and to the right over the medium term. The valuation, at 9x sales, is at record highs, and buying here appears very risky. Thus, our 'Hold' rating. If you'd like to buy or get involved, waiting for a dip seems like the move. ozgurdonmaz Over the last year or so, we've put out 3 separate articles about Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL): It's Time To Trim Apple On Saturation Conce
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      Apple: Multiple Avenues For Revenue Growth, But Very Expensive (Rating Downgrade)
    • PropNotesPropNotes
      ·08-30

      BITO's Underperformance Is Likely To Continue

      Summary We think BITO is inferior to other spot-based BTC products due to the fund's high expense ratio and futures-based approach to getting crypto exposure. High transaction costs, liquidity constraints, and a uniquely inefficient 'rolling' mechanic should cause structural underperformance vs. the underlying going forward. Despite some niche use cases, BITO's structure results in substantial performance drag, making it a sub-optimal long-term investment. We re-iterate our 'Sell' rating on BITO. Torsten Asmus In February of this year, we wrote an article titled, "BITO: Why Bother?". The point of the article was simple - in an age of newly legalized Spot Bitcoin ETFs, why invest in the inferior, futures-based alternativ
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      BITO's Underperformance Is Likely To Continue
    • PropNotesPropNotes
      ·08-28

      Dell: Get Paid To Bid Lower For This Overheated But High-Quality AI Server Play

      Summary Dell Technologies has had a volatile year, with a 140% rally followed by a 50% selloff in the stock. Where do things stand now? The AI server opportunity appears robust, but shares still appear a tad hot, and we'd like to own it from lower. We propose selling $90 strike put options. This would maximize returns while affording us the opportunity to buy it at a better entry point. Selling this put option could yield ~15.5% annualized (3.4% over the next 81 days). We rate DELL a 'Hold'. J Studios Dell Technologies (NYSE:DELL) has had one hell of a year. From the start of 2024 through mid-May, DELL's stock skyrocketed roughly 140% from the mid $70's to just shy of $180 per share, in one of the most epic runs of the year:
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      Dell: Get Paid To Bid Lower For This Overheated But High-Quality AI Server Play
     
     
     
     

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