To The Moon

Volatility is picking up as downside momentum builds across major indices. With the VIX back above 20 and key leaders breaking short-term support, the current bearish move may not be over yet. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : Indecision at the lower Bollinger band, the 20 daily moving average curling down shows the shift in momentum. The bearish move doesn't seem complete considering the widening band and the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ above 20. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Losing the 20DMA with high-conviction suggests bearish continuation. Lately, bearish stochastic crossovers have preceded declines until prices become oversold, which isn't the case yet. Potential target: the lower ed

The U.S. stock market faced a stark reality check this week as the tech-heavy Nasdaq failed to recover. Despite strong top-line numbers from several sector leaders, the “billions in Capex” narrative has begun to sour, with investors questioning the immediate ROI on massive AI infrastructure spending. This skepticism has led to a decisive reversals for $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ which struggled under the weight of high expectations. As the tech engines stalled, the broad market was left without its primary

This has been a volatile week for the market. Between seasonality, a high $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ (which, as I mentioned last weekend, it suggested a new spike, and weakness in Bitcoin (acting as a risk-off thermometer), we finally saw a bearish resolution. My notes last week regarding the VIX and $S&P 500(.SPX)$ were clear for paid subscribers: “The current price action doesn’t typically reflect a final ‘top’ in volatility. The current level of 17.7 for the VIX is not the cleanest condition for a sustained bull run; a new spike in volatility remains a viable risk.” Additionally, I cited: “For the SPX, a breach of the CWL of 6,901.8 (-0.4%) points to 6,810.6 (-1.8%).” The actual low of the week wa

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ : Once again, we've reached a moment of truth. The oscillator is overbought, and the 4-hour chart reflects indecision with pullback potential if the pattern repeats. Sooner or later, one of these reversal signals will give way. Bullish breakout? the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ continues above 17. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ : The price continues above the 20DMA but today's bearish engulfing candle suggests extreme caution. The VIX is still high and $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ below the 20DMA. If the supports are breached, the lower Bollinger band could be tested again during the usually weak second half of

Infrastructure Giants Spend Big While Application Winners Cash In - Fundamental Analysis for GOOG, PLTR, LLY, and AMZN. Amid the volatility of February 2026, a clear divergence has emerged between the architects of the AI era and its most potent beneficiaries. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ and $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ have escalated the infrastructure arms race to unprecedented levels, pledging a combined capital expenditure approaching $385 billion for 2026 alone. This historic bet is already paying off in the cloud, where both Google Cloud and AWS posted meaningful acceleration in growth rates. Yet the sheer scale of this spending forces investors to weigh the

Tech heavyweights enter the week at pivotal technical junctions. As volatility persists, three key names—$NDX, $AVGO, $AAPL—demand close attention for signals of either continuation or reversal. Here’s how their setups are shaping up. 1. $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ The decline toward the lower Bollinger Band played out as anticipated. For the move to stay sustainable, the Nasdaq 100 must recover and hold $25,123.7. It sounds simple, but with the $VIX at 18.0, volatility remains high, caution is still the priority. 2. $Broadcom(AVGO)$ Most long-wick hammer candles have preceded bounces, just as we saw on Thursday, which led into Friday’s rally. The second hammer has presented more traction, if that's the case again,

Markets delivered a technically meaningful bounce, but the real test now begins. The $SPX rebounded sharply after breaching its lower Bollinger Band and triggering oversold signals, yet the 20-day moving average stands as the line between a sustainable rally and a classic dead-cat bounce. Similar setups are unfolding across mega-cap tech. $NVDA shows a bullish stochastic crossover, $META has fully filled its post-earnings gap, and $AAPL is flashing a candle worth close attention after last week’s correctly anticipated rally. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ The lower Bollinger band breached and the oversold oscillator triggered a major bounce. The daily candle suggests continuation. The 20DMA will define if this is a sustainable rally or a dead cat bounce.

Sector Rotation: Why All-Time Highs Are Decoupling from Reality Through the first six weeks of 2026, a stark divergence has emerged in market leadership. While the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ remains near elevated levels, traditional growth engines like Technology and Consumer Discretionary have significantly lagged the broader index. Instead, the heavy lifting is being done by defensive and cyclical sectors, with Consumer Staples, Energy, Industrials, and Materials all outperforming. This rotation suggests a defensive posture among institutional participants and warrants extreme caution. Historically, when the “Real Economy” sectors lead while Tech falters, it signals a lack of risk appetite for the high-beta names that typically sustain a healthy bull m

Despite the relief rally on Friday that saw the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ achieve a historic close above 50,000, the technology sector remains under intense scrutiny as it faces an uphill battle to reverse its recent underperformance. This divergence serves as a significant warning for the broader market, particularly as the “AI trade” shifts from euphoria to an era of massive capital expenditures. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ ’s staggering forecast of at least $200 billion in infrastructure spending for 2026, a $50 billion overshoot of analyst expectations, has intensified concerns that aggressive investments by hyperscalers like $Alphabet(GOOG)$

U.S. equities rallied sharply on Friday to conclude a volatile trading week, posting their strongest single-session performance since May 2025. The $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ achieved a historic milestone by crossing and closing above the 50,000 threshold for the first time. It advanced 2.5% to settle at 50,115.67. Broader benchmarks also participated in the relief rally. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 1.9% and the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ 2.2%. This resurgence followed a week marked by heavy losses in the technology sector and growing anxiety over the artificial intelligence trade. This publication relies on precise targets for both bullish and bearish moves, and this week perfect