To The Moon

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ is at all-time highs while the Fear and Greed Index shows fear. Should you use this index to time the market? No. Is the divergence worth considering as a risk warning? Absolutely, recent ATH at fear levels preceded pullbacks, caution is key. $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ : Semiconductors is the most crowded trade, and individual names as $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ and $Micron Technology(MU)$ are showing signs of consolidation with significant intra-week swings. Capital rotates, it's not surprising to see the Mag7 ( $NVIDIA(NVDA)$

U.S. equities closed the week with gains, as investors weighed a firm Federal Reserve stance against a landmark interim agreement between the United States and Iran. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ advanced 0.9% to 7,500.6. The Federal Open Market Committee, under new Chair Kevin Warsh, held benchmark rates in the 3.5% to 3.75% range and signaled no near-term intention to ease. The decision briefly rattled markets midweek before equities recovered and pushed higher. In the corporate arena, $SpaceX(SPCX)$ reversed from our $225 level on Tuesday, the stock closed the week in 185, securing a valuation of $2.4 trillion. Across asset classes, the U.S. Dollar Index held near a one-year high of 100.7 as currency markets

U.S. equities sold off hard on Wednesday as markets digested the Fed’s latest policy decision. The central bank held rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75%, but the forecast is what moved markets. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the FOMC projected a year-end fed funds rate of 3.8%, a 25 basis point hike from current levels. Warsh delivered a shorter policy statement, stripped out the usual forward guidance, and committed to a single mandate: price stability. No hints, no roadmap for the path ahead. The market’s reaction was immediate. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ dropped 1.2% to 7,420.1, the worst reaction to a new Fed chair’s first decision day since 1994. $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ fell 1.3% to 26,021.7.

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed at 7500.6, up 1.1% on the session reclaiming its central weekly and monthly levels in the same move. The session brought a bounce from yesterday's breakdown. The price action showed indecision rather than strong conviction closing the day without a clear directional candle. Worth noting: SPX is sitting very close to its central weekly level for next week (CWL, details below), meaning that line is being tested right now. The recovery of both the CWL and the CML today is a constructive short-term development, and holding them through the next session will be essential to keep momentum and break above the bearish diagonal. The Stochastic crossover suggests caution, most of them have been validated, losing next week’s CWL wo

As posted yesterday, a gap fill for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ was highly probable given the overextended condition of the price action, making key price levels essential to watch for an early reversal. The Central Daily Level (CDL) shared for today was 7,549.0, and I noted that upward momentum would be endangered if that level was breached. A breakdown below that CDL exposed our downside target of 7,521.0, which was hit by 3:45 PM 🎯 and subsequently breached, suggesting bearish continuation for tomorrow. Because the initial rally was so rapid (and we have studied how suspicious a sharp, early-week jump can be) I also provided key daily levels for the Magnificent Seven to help you manage risk. $Meta Platforms, I

Markets remain firmly in risk-on mode as bullish momentum continues to build. Here are the key levels and setups to watch for $SPX, $AMD, and $IWM today. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Geopolitical headlines fueled the rally, no need to fight the trend. We're in bullish mode since Thursday, staying cautious. Price is far from overbought, so continuation is likely. ➡️Watch the 7,456 gap; it will likely fill as we've seen gaps fill at this stage of the run. 2. $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ Bullish Stochastic crossover. The price could move between $524.2 and $536.8 today. If the upper level is breached, $543.1 is the next target. The gap at $490.4 that opened on Friday is likely to be filled in the coming days. 3. <

The market saw a bullish breakout today fueled by geopolitical headlines. While Friday’s price action ended on a weak note, the use of levels to assess scenarios is working well. I mapped out in the Weekly Compass that an $S&P 500(.SPX)$ opening above 7417 would be bullish targeting 7,530; the price closed today at 7,554 🎯. “The SPX begins the week weak around its Central Daily Level (CDL) of 7,417. If there are no major negative headlines during these days, reaching 7,530.5.” Not only did the market avoid negative headlines, but it caught a powerful tailwind from positive updates regarding a potential peace agreement in Iran. As also detailed in the Weekly Compass, the Magnificent Seven were likely to bounce. That is what materialized today,

Optimism in the Strait and IPO euphoria drove the rebound, but any minimal break next week could send markets tumbling again. U.S. equities closed a volatile week with broad gains. Falling oil prices followed geopolitical headlines, and the blockbuster $SpaceX(SPCX)$ IPO stabilized the tape after a -4% sharp selloff in the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and -6% in the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ . The S&P 500 bounced and closed positive +0.65% for the week. the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) added 2.3%, and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ climbed 0.7%. The week was not clean, the S&P 500 and the Dow swung wildly mid-week on optimism about the conflict with I

Both Amazon and Microsoft are trading near critical technical levels. Amazon is attempting to stabilize at support, while Microsoft is looking to build a base after a recent pullback. Monday's price action should provide important clues on whether buyers are ready to regain control. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Oversold. Volume profile points to a make-or-break spot here, with oscillators calling for a relief bounce. On Monday, the price must stay here, since the closest support is at 234 (-1.85%). If there is a bounce, 240 is the resistance to watch. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ After nailing a high probability bearish move for subscribers, the price could find consolidation considering oversold conditions. Price action is b

Last week’s Setups Blueprint delivered exceptional results, it presented seven setups with the highest probability of success: $Apple(AAPL)$ : My blueprint anticipated a decline to an extended target of 297 (-3.1%). It extended further, hitting its 3rd support at 290 for a weekly move of -5.3% 🎯. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : Targeted a -1.2% decline to 7,294. This acted as the support zone where the price bounced on both Wednesday and Thursday 🎯. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ : I expected a decline to 398.6 (-4.3%). The actual move went deeper to -6.3%, exceeding our bearish expectations 🎯. $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ : Targeted an extended bearis