To The Moon

Markets are showing early signs of a sentiment shift, with smart money turning optimistic even as broader fear remains elevated. This divergence suggests the current bounce may have room to extend, but confirmation—especially through key technical breakouts like Nvidia’s—remains critical. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Smart money confidence is optimistic while dumb money is neutral. The Fear & Greed Index continues at Extreme Fear. Green circles highlight increase in smart money confidence and bullish moves that followed. The bounce could have more fuel. 2. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ The 20DMA has been rejecting price since March. The candle looks bullish, but volume is low. It needs a breakout above the downtrend to sh

The market continues to produce rapid moves that can trap both bulls and bears. This week, for the first time in over a month, the trap favored the bulls; after five consecutive weeks in the red, the main indices finally closed with over 3% gains each, the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ jumped during the week 3.95%. Modeled Support and Resistance Levels Framed Price Action The pathway to a green close was not smooth. On Monday, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ extended its oversold conditions, moving toward the bearish weekly target of $6,216. Once the overextension concluded, also breaching the lower daily Bollinger Band, the price began the “imminent bounce” anticipated this weekend in the Weekly Compass, where I mentioned th

The stock market is bouncing from the extreme oversold conditions identified during the weekend. While the rally continued today, we must determine if this move is finally sustainable or if the trend of “Inverse U turns” that dominated March will persist. Current price action suggests indecision; in fact, it suggests a potential reversal, with a gap below that is likely to act as a magnet in the very short term. It remains to be seen if the market will maintain the momentum from yesterday. Last night, I posted the Central Monthly Levels for April, which are the key levels where price switches from bullish (above) to bearish (below). The stock market moves in a mathematic way, for that reason these modeled levels work so well. Indecisive Price Action Once Again

Potential squeeze size based on the nearest gaps: -> $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : +2.1% -> $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ : +2.7% -> $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ : +3.2% The conviction with which price crosses intermediate levels and reclaims these gaps will determine the overall strength of the bounce. :As mentioned this weekend and yesterday, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ oversold conditions were extreme. Moment of Truth: Price filled the gap and hit the 10DMA, the dominant March trendline. Today’s difference: the candle shows bullish conviction. Next major hurdle: the 200DMA. Bulls face a monumental task in April: neutralizing this bear

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ failed to hold above $6,392 today the key level mentioned in the Weekly Compass, and losing that level opened the door for a decline to the next daily support at $6,331. Despite this, oversold conditions remain extremely overstretched, with price sitting below the Bollinger Bands in several timeframes, suggesting a spike could occur at any moment. It is worth noting that the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ declined today even as indices closed in the red; this divergence often serves as an early warning of an imminent squeeze. In high-volatility environments, our daily levels are essential for navigating these wide weekly ranges. The VIX closed today at 30. From the securities posted i

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ : Be careful about being too bearish in the short term, as the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ also closed in the red. The similarity to 2025 is impressive, especially with the RSI below 30 and the lower Bollinger Band breached; both oversold conditions that preceded a bounce. Bounce in the making, futures gaping down create a bullish magnet for a likely bounce this week. $Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$ : The Money Flow Index for the Financial Sector closed last Friday at historical lows: levels seen only 8 times in the last 25 years. A bounce followed every single time. Today's action was constructive. Shortest-lived spikes: 2011 (+5%) an

Markets are at extreme oversold levels. $NDX and $SPX MFI signals historically trigger relief rallies, while $NVDA below its lower Bollinger Band points to mean reversion. A tactical bounce is likely, pending key level reclaim. 1. $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ Over the last 25 years, a relief rally has followed when the Money Flow Index reached current levels. There have been no exceptions, including the dot-com bubble in 2000, the 2008 Financial Crisis, and the 2022 bear market. The current reading is below the 2025 lows. 2. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ The Money Flow Index is at significant lows, suggesting a tactical bounce is nearby as analyzed since 2000. Black arrows highlight relief bounces even in bear markets. While m

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ This level of extreme fear (10) has been seen at previous bottoms, including those that preceded bear market rallies in 2022. The shortest bounce before lower lows occurred in 2025. A bullish divergence is now appearing, which validates the thesis. Smart money confidence is growing while dumb money confidence falls. Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index has hit Extreme Fear. Yes, the setups across the board look ugly, but chasing shorts here is riskier than remaining patient.🌮 $Netflix(NFLX)$ : Not everything is bearish. Key levels to watch were posted this morning for this one, $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$

U.S. equities suffered another week of significant losses, the sustained selling pressure pushed multiple major indices into formal correction territory, defined as a 10% decline from recent record highs. $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ closed exactly 10% below its peak. $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ and $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ are now down 12.6% and 11.4% respectively. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ ended the week 8.8% below its own record close. The Federal Reserve reinforced the bearish backdrop by holding rates at 3.50% to 3.75% during its March meeting while raising its inflation forecast to 2.7%. Borrowing costs are staying elevated, and the market is fin

Markets are showing signs of extreme short-term stress, with weak breadth and key technical levels being tested. While oversold conditions suggest a potential bounce, the key question is whether this is the start of a sustainable recovery or just a temporary relief move. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ When the percentage of stocks above their 20 and 50 daily moving averages is this low (below 20%), a bottom is typically in or nearby. How sustainable will be this bounce? 2. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Once again, the lower Bollinger brand has been breached. This event has been followed by rallies (✅) or tactical bounces (no mark). When the lower band continues breached (❌) it has been an early signal of a significant bounce