To The Moon

Markets are flashing mixed signals—index-level strength is holding, but internal breadth continues to weaken. With sentiment elevated and volatility compressing, both the S&P 500 and key mega caps like Meta are approaching inflection points where the next decisive move could define the near-term trend. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Bulls managed to avoid the bearish MACD crossover that seemed imminent last month, mirroring the price action seen in 2018. Beyond that, the monthly candle shows conviction, a move that is usually followed by bullish continuation when a reversal begins as highlighted. The divergence with stock participation persists, as the percentage of stocks above their 20DMA has dropped to only 50% of the index constituents. Greed sits

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ The divergence with stock participation persists, as the percentage of stocks above their 20DMA has dropped to only 50% of the index constituents. Greed sits at 64, and the indecisive price action suggests a significant move is imminent. The S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rallied for three consecutive weeks when it bounced, gaining over 3% each week. Such an occurrence is rare in the stock market; the move was so rapid that apathy is the common human reaction, similar to what is observed during a breadth thrust signal. Today, the market is consolidating after this sharp move. Considering the high expectations seen across social media and mainstream news for a decline, I am providing a

Markets are flashing early signs of exhaustion after a strong run. Sentiment has shifted toward extreme optimism, breadth is weakening, and key indicators are entering overbought territory. While the broader trend remains intact, these conditions typically precede a period of consolidation or a healthy pullback before the next leg higher. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Dumb Money Confidence has entered the Extreme Optimism zone, a level that historically coincides with index consolidations or healthy pullbacks. Furthermore, the Fear & Greed Index sits at 67 (Greed), while Smart Money Confidence is neutral ahead of major earnings reports. 2. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Stock participation has deteriorated

CHOOSE YOUR RISK THIS WEEK: Tech giants are heading into earnings with gaps and overheated in the daily: $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ : Overbought RSI | 1st Gap: -7% $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ : Mild RSI Divergence | 1st Gap: -8% $Alphabet(GOOG)$ : RSI Divergence | 1st Gap: -7% Gap fill this week? $Apple(AAPL)$ Weekly bullish MACD crossovers usually precede average moves of +5% within three weeks. With earnings scheduled for this Thursday, the week is key to confirm the signal, currently brewing. $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ : Are breakouts bullish? They are. Just be aware that the la

The week ending April 24 delivered a technically rich but internally divided market. $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ and $S&P 500(.SPX)$ consolidated as anticipated in the previous Weekly Compass, with the SPX filling its gap at $7,051.2 as likely considered. Tech $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ surged +2.4% for the week, and the semiconductor sector printed a +9.1% breakout reaching unprecedented overbought conditions that we will study today. The Three Green Soldiers pattern on the SPX and NDX weekly chart mentioned last week is in bullish play, and Bitcoin continues moving north since it was anticipated three weeks ago. The cryptocurrency has gained +13.7% since, and Ethereum +9.9%. B

Markets are holding a constructive tone, with equities showing signs of continued upside despite short-term consolidation, while Bitcoin maintains strong momentum within a sustained bull trend. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ During the last 10 years, every time the Stochastic bounced from oversold area and made it above 50, the index maintained bullish continuation and consolidated when the oscillator was overbought (+80) with both lines. There is room for further gains, as %D is at 65%. 2. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Indecision at the Top: The price has moved between 702.5 and 711 this week, building a small volume shelf. Any loss of today’s low could send the price to $695 (volume shelf below), validating

Markets are showing early signs of stabilization, with key indices holding support and momentum indicators turning constructive. While short-term consolidation may emerge, leadership strength and improving technical signals suggest the groundwork for a potential upside continuation—especially with earnings acting as the next major catalyst. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ The gap at 7,051 served well as support. While today’s move was tech-driven and price action felt indecisive excluding the $Defiance Large Cap ex-Mag 7 ETF(XMAG)$ giants, this does not imply a lack of conviction. These leaders are bouncing and could fuel the move heading into next week’s earnings. $Cboe Volat

Every industrial revolution has its toll booths. In the railroad era the toll booths were the trunk lines. In the internet era they were the operating systems. In the era now unfolding, the toll booths are the enterprise software platforms that sit between raw AI capability and the workflows that actually run the modern economy. These are the companies that own the data, the user identities, the audit trails, the sales pipelines, the creative pipelines, the security telemetry, and the service tickets. They are the rails that intelligence has to ride on if it wants to do useful work inside a public company, a federal agency, or a global bank. During the last months, the software stocks have been impacted in a significant way, but today they’re signaling reversals, the question is: Is that s

Price action is becoming more nuanced, with the S&P 500 flashing short-term caution signals while the Nasdaq 100 strengthens on a higher timeframe basis. This divergence sets up a key moment for traders to watch both support levels and momentum confirmation. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ The gap was filled with a bearish engulfing candle as the RSI fell from overbought levels (70). A tactical pullback/consolidation usually follows. Given the afternoon's indecisive price action, keep a close eye on $7,021; if lost tomorrow, the decline could deepen. 2. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ Over the last 10 years, bullish Stochastic crossovers on the weekly chart have ma

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ Overbought McClellan Oscillator +70 following a market bounce signals a short-term consolidation before the bullish continuation resumes. When the overbought condition is reached in a mature uptrend, it can precede a major pullback. The current case is a market bounce $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ The RSI has crossed 70 for the first time in 6 months. This initial move typically does not mark the top, it usually precedes consolidations before reaching higher highs. A +7.9% spike in the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ and indecisive price action reinforce the thesis for a gap fill at 7,051. $ServiceNow(NOW)$ Consolidat