To The Moon

Since mid-July, the Japanese stock market has entered a stage of high volatility, during which a series of uncertain factors such as the rate hike of the Bank of Japan, the violent fluctuation of the yen exchange rate and the "Trump deal" ushered in the US election. From the perspective of the Japanese stock market, if the Trump administration brings reflation and the appreciation of the US dollar, then Japan will face greater pressure of capital outflow.Economic slowdown will continueFrom the perspective of stock pricing logic, it is inseparable from corporate profits and risk premiums, both of which are inseparable from the fundamentals of economic growth. Going back to the fundamentals of Japan's economic growth, we can see that GDP growth is slowing down. Generally speaking, it is diff

U.S. bond yields rose further last week, putting gold under pressure, but the long-term narrative has not changed. As far as copper is concerned, the performance of copper prices in the past two weeks has been extremely calm and in a state of volatility convergence, just as all kinds of assets have amplified fluctuations due to Trump's coming to power, thus pricing in advance the possibility after he took office. CORE POINTS1. Copper prices continued to fluctuate last week, and gold fell back after hitting a new highIn terms of precious metals, COMEX gold fell 0.55% and silver fell 5.22% last week; The Shanghai Gold 2410 contract fell 0.46%, and the Shanghai Silver 2410 contract fell 5.12%. Among the prices of major industrial metals, COMEX copper and Shanghai copper changed by-7.53% and-3

Since Japan launched its rate hike, the Japanese stock market has entered a high sideways consolidation stage, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by less than 3% in October. Recently, in the 50th House of Representatives election in Japan, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party lost its ruling position for the first time since 2009, and the Japanese stock market and exchange rate fluctuated greatly in the short term, which brought great uncertainty to Japan's monetary and fiscal policies in the future.There are downside risks to the economyAccording to published data, the Japanese government's second-quarter GDP growth rate was lowered from 0.8% to 0.7%, and the annualized quarter-on-quarter growth rate was lowered from 3.1% to 2.9%. Among them, the month-on-month growth rate of private final c

Gold $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ prices soared last week, surpassing the $2700 mark and setting a historical high. Over the past two years, gold has climbed steadily, breaking record after record. Analysts from Bank of America recently pointed out that, driven by multiple factors, they maintain a target price of $3000 per ounce for gold.Gold futures closed above $2700, marking an impressive increase of over 30% this year. However, from a technical standpoint, gold has been overbought for an extended period, suggesting a potential for significant pullbacks.After a brief expected correction, buyers quickly stepped back in. A drop in interest rates, central bank purchases, political uncertainty, and rising sovereign debt are all pushing gold towar

Gold $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ prices reached new heights on Thursday, driven by uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election and escalating tensions in the Middle East, boosting demand for safe-haven assets.Spot gold hit a record $2,696.62 per ounce, while futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $2,704.80 per ounce. The immediate catalyst for this surge was the Middle East unrest, prompting investors to flock to gold.Market Caution Before the ElectionFXTM Senior Research Analyst Lukman Otunuga notes that with less than three weeks until the U.S. election, the market may remain cautious. However, the uncertainty surrounding the election results has heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold.Investors see both pr

Last week, overseas interest rate cut expectations were further revised, and the CPI in September was higher than expected. At the same time, several Fed officials stated that interest rate cuts may be lower than previous market expectations. The market's interest rate cut expectations have also improved. The momentum of short-term economic growth has also improved, and copper prices have stabilized and rebounded accordingly. However, we do not think that the data in the United States will continue to strengthen, and we need to consider the possibility that the interest rate cut expectations will rise again.CORE POINTS1. Expectations for interest rate cuts continue to be revised, and copper prices stabilize and reboundLast week, overseas interest rate cut expectations were further revised,

Gold $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ has been smashing record highs left and right. As we closed 2023, prices soared well above the $2,000 per ounce mark, and let’s just say, 2024 has kept that momentum going strong. After the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut this September, gold shot past $2,600 an ounce, setting a new historical high. But here’s the kicker—gold stocks haven’t yet delivered the explosive returns investors were betting on.As of October 1, gold prices are up around 30% this year. Meanwhile, the mainstream gold stock ETFs, $VanEck Gold Miners ETF(GDX)$ and $VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF(GDXJ)$ , have climbed 32% and 33%, respectively. Sounds decent, rig

图片Thanks to expectations of further interest rate cuts from the Fed, precious metal prices are soaring, with silver $Silver - main 2412(SImain)$ hitting its highest point since 2012. Silver has been one of the standout commodities this year. The Fed's shift toward more accommodative policies and prospects for further rate cuts are giving precious metals a boost. Plus, as China takes steps to invigorate its economy, the industrial demand for silver could rise, providing even more support for its price.Amelia Xiao Fu, head of commodities at CICC, stated:“With continuous rate cuts and potential ongoing stimulus from China, we expect silver to keep climbing in the coming quarters, aiming for $37.”Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank

Gold $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ prices are holding steady near historic highs, with new U.S. consumer data pointing to economic weakness, providing a reason for further rate cuts in the coming months.The Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s FedWatch tool shows the probability of a 50-basis-point cut by the Fed at its November meeting has risen from about 40% to 57% following the recent policy meeting.BMO Capital Markets’ commodity analysts have released a new outlook, predicting an average gold price of around $2,700 per ounce in Q4, up 15% from their previous forecast of $2,350.Looking ahead to the next 12 months, they expect gold to average $2,663 per ounce in 2025, a 21% increase from their earlier estimate of $2,200. They’ve also raised their lon

Since mid-September, domestic and foreign gold prices have repeatedly hit record highs, exceeding US $2,600/oz, continuing the strong bull market since the fourth quarter of last year. As of September 17, the COMEX gold December contract has increased by more than 20% annually (see the chart below), and the full-year increase in 2023 is only 9.8%. This is also the third consecutive year of increase since 2022.The Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut, which is an important node for gold prices. In the short term, we need to pay attention to the risk of callback after the interest rate cut is favorable. However, in the long run, after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, the decline in the real interest rate of the U.S. dollar stimulated the rise in investment dema