To The Moon

After Shigeru Ishiba was re-elected as Prime Minister of Japan on November 11th, the Japanese economy still faces several major challenges, among which it is particularly important to seek a balance between inflation and economic growth. Recently, the Japanese stock market has fallen into a range-bound trend, and the yen exchange rate no longer depreciates unilaterally. By next year, the direction of Shigeru Ishiba's economic stimulus is to increase residents' income and fight inflation through subsidies, but the effect remains to be seen. The tariff increase imposed by Trump's new administration may have an additional impact on the Japanese economy, and the sustainability of Japan's debt is also problematic. Therefore, the Japanese stock market has not yet ushered in a new upward driver.

Looking back at last week, after three consecutive weeks of sharp rises, the US dollar finally ushered in a correction, and the single-week decline was relatively large, nearly half of the previous increase. However, the weekly line of the the US Dollar Index still shows an obvious bullish technical form. Combined with the current fundamental situation, it is more likely that the market outlook will remain strong. In terms of non-US currencies, the yen surged due to inflation data; Looking ahead to this week, the U.S. non-farm payrolls report and public speeches of Federal Reserve officials will be the focus of the market.Global foreign exchange focus review and fundamental summaryAfter rising for three consecutive weeks, the US dollar experienced a weekly correction, and the follow-up tre

Since mid-July, the Japanese stock market has entered a stage of high volatility, during which a series of uncertain factors such as the rate hike of the Bank of Japan, the violent fluctuation of the yen exchange rate and the "Trump deal" ushered in the US election. From the perspective of the Japanese stock market, if the Trump administration brings reflation and the appreciation of the US dollar, then Japan will face greater pressure of capital outflow.Economic slowdown will continueFrom the perspective of stock pricing logic, it is inseparable from corporate profits and risk premiums, both of which are inseparable from the fundamentals of economic growth. Going back to the fundamentals of Japan's economic growth, we can see that GDP growth is slowing down. Generally speaking, it is diff

U.S. bond yields rose further last week, putting gold under pressure, but the long-term narrative has not changed. As far as copper is concerned, the performance of copper prices in the past two weeks has been extremely calm and in a state of volatility convergence, just as all kinds of assets have amplified fluctuations due to Trump's coming to power, thus pricing in advance the possibility after he took office. CORE POINTS1. Copper prices continued to fluctuate last week, and gold fell back after hitting a new highIn terms of precious metals, COMEX gold fell 0.55% and silver fell 5.22% last week; The Shanghai Gold 2410 contract fell 0.46%, and the Shanghai Silver 2410 contract fell 5.12%. Among the prices of major industrial metals, COMEX copper and Shanghai copper changed by-7.53% and-3

Since Japan launched its rate hike, the Japanese stock market has entered a high sideways consolidation stage, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by less than 3% in October. Recently, in the 50th House of Representatives election in Japan, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party lost its ruling position for the first time since 2009, and the Japanese stock market and exchange rate fluctuated greatly in the short term, which brought great uncertainty to Japan's monetary and fiscal policies in the future.There are downside risks to the economyAccording to published data, the Japanese government's second-quarter GDP growth rate was lowered from 0.8% to 0.7%, and the annualized quarter-on-quarter growth rate was lowered from 3.1% to 2.9%. Among them, the month-on-month growth rate of private final c

Gold $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ prices soared last week, surpassing the $2700 mark and setting a historical high. Over the past two years, gold has climbed steadily, breaking record after record. Analysts from Bank of America recently pointed out that, driven by multiple factors, they maintain a target price of $3000 per ounce for gold.Gold futures closed above $2700, marking an impressive increase of over 30% this year. However, from a technical standpoint, gold has been overbought for an extended period, suggesting a potential for significant pullbacks.After a brief expected correction, buyers quickly stepped back in. A drop in interest rates, central bank purchases, political uncertainty, and rising sovereign debt are all pushing gold towar

Gold $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ prices reached new heights on Thursday, driven by uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election and escalating tensions in the Middle East, boosting demand for safe-haven assets.Spot gold hit a record $2,696.62 per ounce, while futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $2,704.80 per ounce. The immediate catalyst for this surge was the Middle East unrest, prompting investors to flock to gold.Market Caution Before the ElectionFXTM Senior Research Analyst Lukman Otunuga notes that with less than three weeks until the U.S. election, the market may remain cautious. However, the uncertainty surrounding the election results has heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold.Investors see both pr

Last week, overseas interest rate cut expectations were further revised, and the CPI in September was higher than expected. At the same time, several Fed officials stated that interest rate cuts may be lower than previous market expectations. The market's interest rate cut expectations have also improved. The momentum of short-term economic growth has also improved, and copper prices have stabilized and rebounded accordingly. However, we do not think that the data in the United States will continue to strengthen, and we need to consider the possibility that the interest rate cut expectations will rise again.CORE POINTS1. Expectations for interest rate cuts continue to be revised, and copper prices stabilize and reboundLast week, overseas interest rate cut expectations were further revised,

Gold $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ has been smashing record highs left and right. As we closed 2023, prices soared well above the $2,000 per ounce mark, and let’s just say, 2024 has kept that momentum going strong. After the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut this September, gold shot past $2,600 an ounce, setting a new historical high. But here’s the kicker—gold stocks haven’t yet delivered the explosive returns investors were betting on.As of October 1, gold prices are up around 30% this year. Meanwhile, the mainstream gold stock ETFs, $VanEck Gold Miners ETF(GDX)$ and $VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF(GDXJ)$ , have climbed 32% and 33%, respectively. Sounds decent, rig

图片Thanks to expectations of further interest rate cuts from the Fed, precious metal prices are soaring, with silver $Silver - main 2412(SImain)$ hitting its highest point since 2012. Silver has been one of the standout commodities this year. The Fed's shift toward more accommodative policies and prospects for further rate cuts are giving precious metals a boost. Plus, as China takes steps to invigorate its economy, the industrial demand for silver could rise, providing even more support for its price.Amelia Xiao Fu, head of commodities at CICC, stated:“With continuous rate cuts and potential ongoing stimulus from China, we expect silver to keep climbing in the coming quarters, aiming for $37.”Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank