To The Moon

Data showing a cooling jobs market revived hopes for Fed rate cuts later this year, boosting U.S. stocks. Home Depot and Caterpillar led the rally as the Dow notched its longest winning streak since December 2022 with 9 straight gains.Options market data suggested the S&P 500 ETF may have topped out around 521, with expectations for a decline of over 1.9% priced in by June 21 expiration. For QQQ, near-term upside was adjusted higher while longer-dated put buying continued. The small-cap Russell 2000 saw room for more upside into late May, with expectations capping gains in IWM below 6.8% by May 24.Details:The $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ saw open call interest rise 2.3% over the past 5 days. Open put contracts increased 3.9% over the same

Rising Treasury yields and mixed corporate earnings impacted market sentiment, though the Dow Jones rose for the sixth straight session, reclaiming the 33,000 level.Options market data showed muted trading across the major index ETFs, with most activity concentrated in front-week options set to expire, suggesting retail traders were the main participants.Details:The $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ options overall reflected a bullish trading sentiment, with sellers of put options dominating. Open call interest declined -1.4% over the past 5 days. Open put contracts increased 12.2% over the same period.For call options, the most actively traded was the $SPY 20240509 521.0 CALL$  w

Traders are looking for more clues on whether the Fed could start cutting rates. After a pullback in April, stocks have rebounded recently on renewed hopes for Fed rate cuts this year, with corporate earnings for the first quarter also providing some optimism so far.Options market data suggested the S&P 500 ETF may have topped out around 520, with any pullback limited to less than 4.8%. For QQQ, downside expectations continued to be tempered, with a decline of less than 2.2% priced in by June 21 expiration. Small-cap Russell 2000 looked to have topped as well, with expectations for the index to trade below 208 by mid-May.Details:The $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ options overall reflected a bearish trading sentiment, with sellers of put opti

The surprisingly cool U.S. April jobs report stoked hopes for an earlier start to Fed rate cuts, sending the VIX fear gauge to a one-month low and pushing Treasury yields lower. Apple rallied nearly 6%, leading tech stocks higher.As the S&P 500 gradually rose, options market data showed continued adjustments to hedge put positions by raising strike prices. For QQQ, downside expectations for May were lowered, with a decline of less than 2.7% priced in by May 31st expiration. Small-cap Russell 2000 options saw active buying of calls, implying expectations for the index to trade above 205 by June 21.Details:The $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ options overall reflected a bullish trading sentiment, with sellers of put options dominating. Open call

The surprisingly cooler U.S. April jobs report stoked hopes for an earlier start to Fed rate cuts, sending the VIX fear gauge to a one-month low and pushing Treasury yields lower. Apple rallied nearly 6%, leading tech stocks higher.Options market data suggested expectations for reduced volatility in the S&P 500 near-term, with a sideways bias this week and potential for the index to finish Friday below 509. QQQ saw continued buying of longer-dated downside protection. For small-caps, Russell 2000 options positioned for a range-bound move, with expectations for the index to trade between 194-210 into June.Details:The $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ options overall reflected a bullish trading sentiment, with sellers of put options dominating. O

Major U.S. stock indexes rallied, with Tesla surging 15% and boosting the consumer discretionary sector. Apple rose 2.5% on an analyst upgrade, though investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision and April jobs report.The Fed will hold its two-day policy meeting on April 30-May 1, with several officials previously signaling no urgency to cut rates. Markets are pricing in a 97.6% chance of the central bank standing pat.Options market data suggested expectations for reduced near-term volatility in the S&P 500, with a downside bias this week. For QQQ, focus was on bets for an outsized move in either direction, with expectations of a 1%+ decline or 3%+ rally over the next two weeks. Small-cap Russell 2000 options saw continued accumulation of far-dated

Major U.S. stock indexes opened higher on Monday (29th), led by Tesla and Apple among the mega-caps, though investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision later this week.Options market data showed expectations for reduced near-term volatility in the S&P 500, with a decline of no more than 2.9% priced in by May 6th. QQQ expectations were aligned with the SPY. For small-caps, the Russell 2000 options saw continued accumulation of far-dated put positions, implying a potential 5.5% drop by early June.Details:The $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ options overall reflected a bullish trading sentiment, with sellers of call options dominating. Open call interest declined -1.1% over the past 5 days. Open put co

Market attention shifted to earnings season, with U.S. stocks extending their rally. Spotify's shares surged 11.4% after beating Wall Street's Q1 expectations and issuing an upbeat Q2 guidance. UPS rose 2.4% as the delivery giant's profits exceeded forecasts.Options market data showed continued accumulation of far-dated put options on the S&P 500, with fresh call open interest dwindling, implying expectations of another 5% decline over the next two months. For QQQ, far-dated puts kept adding, suggesting a move of over 3.7% is priced in by May 17th. On small-caps, Russell 2000 options saw further build-up of far-dated put positions, indicating a potential 4.5% drop by early June.Details:The $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ options overall refle

Market attention has shifted towards earnings season, with the U.S. stock market extending its rally. Spotify's stock surged 11.4% after exceeding Wall Street's first-quarter expectations and issuing an optimistic second-quarter guidance. Delivery giant UPS rose 2.4% after beating profit forecasts.Option market data shows that S&P 500 options continue to bet on far out-of-the-money put options, with call open interest shrinking, expecting a 5% decline over the next 2 months. QQQ options continue to bet on far out-of-the-money puts, expecting volatility over 3.7% before May 17th. Small-cap Russell 2000 options continue to add far out-of-the-money put positions, anticipating a potential 4.5% decline by June.Details: $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$<

Market attention shifted to earnings season, with U.S. stocks extending their rally. Spotify's shares surged 11.4% after beating Wall Street's Q1 expectations and issuing an upbeat Q2 guidance. UPS rose 2.4% as the delivery giant's profits exceeded forecasts.Options market data showed continued accumulation of far-dated put options on the S&P 500, implying expectations of another 5% decline over the next two months. For QQQ, far-dated puts kept adding, suggesting an 8% drop is priced in over the same period. On small-caps, Russell 2000 options saw further build-up of far-dated put positions, indicating a potential 4.5% decline in May.Details:The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) options overall reflected a bullish trading sentiment, with sellers of put options dominating. Open call interest declin