To The Moon

I. Weekly Market Overview The biggest variable for U.S. stocks this week is the double test of rate pressure and AI profitability. Treasury yields and oil prices spiked at one point, increasing pressure on high-valuation tech stocks. After controversy over OpenAI’s annualized revenue figure, the market began asking when massive AI capex would convert into revenue. However, this does not mean AI demand has disappeared — rather, capital is starting to distinguish companies that can truly make money from those that merely benefit from the investment boom. This week, CPI, bank earnings, ASML earnings, and TSMC earnings will follow one after another. If inflation cools, financials perform steadily, and TSMC maintains a strong outlook, the broader market may regain support. Conversely, if rates

① What Happened Today Key Summary: OpenAI revenue expectation gap triggered a selloff in the AI supply chain, but AI demand has not been disproven. OpenAI revenue controversy hits AI trade: The market had previously expected its September annualized revenue to reach $70 billion, while the latest disclosed figure is about $50 billion. The difference mainly involves the statistical treatment of cloud partner revenue. The news triggered declines in AI-related stocks such as NVDA, ORCL, and AVGO, pressuring the semiconductor sector. The key is not just the numerical gap, but that the market is beginning to re-examine whether AI revenue can support massive compute investment. Capital begins to distinguish AI winners from losers: AI cloud services, optical communications, power, and financing-re

① What's Happening Today Key Summary: Geopolitical risk heats up, oil prices spike, short-term pressure on tech stocks rises. Trump's team is considering military action against Iran, combined with increasing attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, driving risk-off sentiment. Crude oil rose about 5% in a single day, and Treasury yields also moved higher. The tech sector is diverging: Samsung's results slightly beat lowered expectations, but the stock still fell 2%. TSMC's September revenue grew 54.6% YoY, yet the stock fell 1% — showing the market currently cares more about "whether the good news is already priced in." The AI theme still has capital support: GOOGL rose about 1% on Gemini enterprise agent news. Meanwhile, Broadcom and Oracle are participating in over $50 billio

① What's Happening Today Key Summary: Rates and oil prices both rising, tech stocks under pre-market pressure, but capital hasn't fully exited AI. Treasury yields moved higher, with the 10-year rising to 5.35% and the 30-year to 5.70%. Combined with rising oil prices and escalating Strait of Hormuz tensions, the semiconductor sector led the decline. But the AI main line hasn't gone out: MRVL raised its long-term revenue target at its Investor Day, AVGO was boosted by news of Anthropic TPU orders, B200 rental prices continued climbing, and power demand-related names VST, GEV, and BE strengthened in tandem. Today's core tension: Rates are compressing valuations, but AI compute demand is still providing fundamental support. ② What Money Is Betting On / Defending Against 🟠 Buy Side: Index and

1. Weekly Market Overview Last week, U.S. equities overall maintained strength, with the Nasdaq hitting a record high. Although semiconductor stocks like AMD, INTC, and ARM pulled back at one point as the market reassessed Meta's AI demand, they still closed higher for the week — showing capital hasn't left the AI main line. What truly drove risk appetite higher was September nonfarm payrolls adding only 29,000 jobs, far below expectations, with the prior two months revised down. Market expectations for an October rate hike dropped rapidly from about 70% to about 20%, reigniting the rate-cut trade. This week marks the start of Q3 earnings season, with market focus shifting from how much is being invested in AI to whether that investment can convert into revenue and profit. Therefore, the c

① What's Happening Today Core Theme: Nonfarm payrolls came in below expectations, rate-cut trade heats up; AI capex is still expanding, but capital is starting to diverge. Jobs Cooling: U.S. September nonfarm payrolls added only 29,000 jobs, far below the expected 90,000; July and August data were revised down by a combined 60,000. Traders trimmed bets on an October rate hike, and U.S. equity futures rallied afterward. Short-term focus on reactions in bonds, financials, and tech. AI Financing and Compute: A Broadcom-led syndicate reportedly raised up to $60 billion in financing to support AI infrastructure demand from companies like Anthropic. NVDA rose on optimistic roadshow interpretations, but AVGO fell — showing that AI demand growth and financing costs remain two separate trading thre

① What's Happening Today Key Summary: U.S. equities closed mixed higher yesterday, but gave back gains notably into the close. Capital style favored software over semiconductors and AI infrastructure. Today's Three Most Important Things: 1 | MU Earnings Clearly Beat, But Gross Margin Guidance Was Weak MU's revenue, EPS, and next-quarter revenue/EPS guidance all came in above market expectations. The only notable blemish was next-quarter gross margin guidance dropping to about 86.25%. Management stated that the first fiscal quarter is expected to be the low point for FY2027 gross margins, with gradual improvement thereafter. → Today, watch whether MU's post-earnings price action can lift the semiconductor sector, and whether HBM demand can offset gross margin pressure. 2 | Long-End Treasury

① What's Happening Today Key Point: Ahead of Micron's Earnings, the Semiconductor Trade Logic Is Shifting from "AI Demand" to "Memory Prices + Supply-Demand Tightness." U.S. equities were mixed yesterday, with QQQ roughly flat and the semiconductor sector up about 1.2%. However, long-end Treasury yields continued climbing, with the 30-year rising to 5.59% — a new high since 2002 — capping broader market valuation expansion. On the AI front, OpenAI DevDay continued to reinforce enterprise Agent commercialization expectations, with AI infrastructure-related names like ORCL and BE strengthening notably. What really needs watching today is Micron's (MU) earnings. The market's focus isn't just on whether this quarter's results beat expectations — more importantly: Whether DRAM/NAND price increa

① What's Happening Today AI compute trade is cooling. The semiconductor index fell 1.7%, down as much as 3.6% intraday. CPU-related names like AMD, Intel, and ARM weakened. The core reason: the market is revising down expectations for CPU compute demand driven by Meta's Muse — the "buy up all the world's CPUs" trade logic is cooling. Meta falls 5%, AI application expectations begin to reprice. The market is waiting for OpenAI's developer conference on one hand, while starting to question the actual pace at which AI Agents will change consumer and business models. Meta has already rallied significantly in the short term, and its valuation has entered a higher range. Optical communications pull back in sync. CRDO fell 8.7%, with COHR, ALAB, and CIEN weakening. The market is reassessing optic

① Weekly Market Overview Last week, the core tension in U.S. equities shifted from "can AI keep rallying" to "can AI growth + high rates + energy risk be digested simultaneously." On the AI front, Meta's Muse topped the U.S. App Store free chart, with Meta surging 12.9% for the week. AMD, Intel, and Arm also strengthened in tandem, as the market began trading the new CPU, inference, and consumer entry-point demand that AI Agents are expected to drive. On the other hand, Middle East tensions escalated again. On 9/26, U.S. President Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, making energy supply risk a key variable for oil prices and inflation expectations this week. This week's core focus: AI looks to earnings and event catalysts, while the market must simultaneously wat