To The Moon

1. What's Happening Today U.S.-Iran Resume Contact, Oil Prices Pull Back: The U.S. and Iran have resumed contact since June, Saudi Arabia is gradually restoring some crude supply, and Brent has fallen back below $100, increasing near-term pressure on the energy sector. Burry Adds to AI/Memory Shorts: Michael Burry has expanded short positions in MU, NBIS, PLTR, and others. The core concern is that after new memory supply is released, prices may come under pressure. AI Theme Still Burning: NVDA still saw short-dated Call buying yesterday, with the market continuing to trade AI capex and semiconductor demand. 2. What Money Is Betting On / Defending Against 🟠 Buy Side: Energy Defense + Policy Offense + Short-Term AI XOP | 2026/11/20 175 Put 9,000 contracts, $5.175 million. Open interest was o

1. What's Happening Today Meta Surges 11.4%: AI agent Muse tops the U.S. App Store free chart, and the market has begun trading the impact of AI Agents on consumer entry points and transaction scenarios. Semiconductors Rally in Sync: AMD, Intel, and Arm rose nearly 10%, 12%, and 17% respectively, as the market extends the trade to CPU inference demand driven by Agents. AI Commercialization Diverges: Shopify integrates Muse, while Amazon restricts its proxy-purchasing feature citing security and data access concerns. Alibaba Cloud Signals Expansion: Based on management's plans, Citi estimates Alibaba's external cloud revenue could reach $160 billion by FY2033. Middle East Energy Risk Escalates: Geopolitical tensions and energy shipping news are disrupting oil prices — watch the energy secto

1. What's Happening This Week Triple Witching Close: Indexes closed higher, the semiconductor index +2.78%, Bitcoin broke above $80,000, WTI crude -1.81%, gold closed at 4,415. → Oil prices are the key variable determining the rate path: a substantive pullback in oil would set the stage for global asset strength. Buybacks Enter a Pause Period: 10% of S&P 500 weighting has suspended buybacks, rising to 61% by 9/30, with most windows not reopening until 11/1. → The market's largest "real-money buyer" will be absent for the next five weeks. Nasdaq 100 Quarterly Rebalance: SpaceX weighting rises to 2.82%, with PANW, ANET, SNDK, and DELL added; the S&P 500 adds BE and ILMN. → Forced passive fund flows create deterministic buying around the effective date. Anthropic IPO Delayed: From Oct

I. Key Events Fed Delivers 25bp September Hike; Dot Plot Signals Room for More Hikes This Year The federal funds target range rose to 3.75%–4.00%, the first increase since July 2023. The median dot plot shows a year-end 2026 rate of 4.1%. Historical patterns suggest IT sector outperformance in a shallow hiking environment. Crude Oil: Record Inventory Draws, But Prices Pull Back Sharply Global oil inventories are declining at a record pace, yet crude oil pulled back sharply on both Wednesday and Thursday, with front-month WTI breaking below its 10-day MA. The divergence between fundamentals and price is worth noting. NBis: GPU Cloud Services Raise Prices Across the Board by ~20% Effective October 1, NBis GPU cloud services are raising prices across the board by approximately 20%, sending th

I. Key Events Wednesday FOMC: Market Consensus Expects a "Dovish Hike" The Fed will announce its rate decision at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday. The market is highly consensus-aligned in expecting a dovish hike — a 25bp increase without signaling a future rate path. → If delivered: the negative is exhausted, and risk appetite may recover. But such a unanimous expectation also means the positive is already priced in — beware of "buy the rumor, sell the fact" gap-up-and-sell-off dynamics. Combined with the 9/18 Triple Witching convergence, directional flexibility is limited this week. SK Hynix × Intel: In Talks for First U.S.-Based Memory Chip Production The news pushed INTC and Hynix higher pre-market, before Hynix clarified that "no conclusion has been reached," trimming gains. For INTC, watch t

I. Key Events Friday 9/18 Triple Witching: Massive Open Interest Expiring Stock prices tend to converge toward the largest open interest zones (Gamma pinning effect). For specifics, refer to individual stock options GEX analysis (⚠️ note the App upgrade). → Directional flexibility is limited this week, making range-bound/seller strategies more suitable. Software ETF (IGV) Surges 5%, Cybersecurity Leads JPMorgan believes AI is pushing cybersecurity from "optional spending" to "mandatory investment." Watch for pullback opportunities in PANW and CRWD. Crude Oil Maintains High-Level Volatility Above 100 Trump stated on 9/14 that "Iran is eager to reach a deal, and the U.S. is open to it." → A de-escalation signal; oil's upward momentum may weaken — watch for a spike-and-retreat. Citi: Wednesda

Major Events This Week Monday Open — Watch for Sector Rotation: Bearish for Hardware Chips, Bullish for Cloud Providers Anthropic / OpenAI / SpaceX jointly calling for a slowdown in AI development pace — potentially bearish for AI stocks. The bullish impact of Leopold's chip call positions may be offset; combined with mid-week news that GPT Pro suspended subscriptions due to surging Astra demand. FOMC & Triple Witching: Favors Sellers Low volatility: A large backlog of open options is pinning stock prices, resulting in very low volatility this week. Historical volatility levels for many stocks have reached mid-year lows. No decline this week: Friday's FOMC may not trigger a major market reaction. Decline next week: But pay attention to the Monday after Triple Witching — historical data

I. Key Events August CPI Lands: Rate Hike All But Certain, Market Dips Then Rebounds August CPI came in at +0.4% MoM (in line with expectations), while core CPI rose +0.3% MoM (above the expected 0.2%). The market is now pricing in a 90% probability of a rate hike at the 9/18 FOMC meeting, and expects two hikes this year. Following the data release, U.S. equities, gold, and Bitcoin all dipped before rebounding — the rate-hike expectation has already been priced in → the negative is exhausted, and the decline has halted. Sell Puts on dips are viable. Oil Spikes Then Retreats: Breaks $100, Then Falls Back Below Meanwhile, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange announced adjustments to crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures trading limits: intraday opening positions for SC2610 and SC26

I. Key Events ECB Hikes Rates by 25 Basis Points, U.S. Stocks Fall Pre-Market The ECB rate hike has raised expectations for a U.S. rate hike, pressuring U.S. equities pre-market. Tomorrow (Friday) brings the CPI release — focus on whether core inflation MoM exceeds 0.2%. A beat would further strengthen rate-hike bets. Brent Crude Surges Pre-Market, Breaks Above $100 Trump said during Wednesday's session that the Iran conflict will end immediately after the midterm elections, and oil prices will plunge (midterms are on November 3). The rhythm: short-term geopolitical push higher, but a pullback catalyst has already been pre-announced — beware of a pullback after an overshoot. TSMC (TSM): August Revenue +10.1% MoM, +53.3% YoY Fundamentals are strong, but rate-hike expectations carry more wei

I. Key Events U.S.-Iran Confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz Intensifies Sharply, with Brent crude briefly breaking above $100/barrel. Based on past patterns, the likely sequence is: Trump further escalates tensions and makes hawkish statements → oil prices return to previous highs or even push to new highs → a compromise or deal is reached between the two sides → oil prices pull back. The rhythm is rally first, then decline — chasing highs requires caution against a potential pullback from a resolution. META: New Personal AI Agent "MUSE" Launches — capable of handling daily tasks, with the app rising to #4 in the App Store rankings, driving the stock up 5% pre-market. Even if the market response fades after launch day, the effect takes time to fully play out — until then, the market will