To The Moon

4.Outlook for the Next Steps"Currently, the US economy faces both short-term and long-term challenges. In the short term, inflation in energy, food, real estate, and the service industry continues to rise. The Federal Reserve certainly cannot cut interest rates now, and the earliest possibility would be in June. This year is also an election year in the United States. According to convention, with the election scheduled for early November, the Fed can only stay put in September and October, regardless of whether it's cutting or maintaining interest rates. Any changes in monetary policy during the two months before the election will be labeled as "politicizing monetary policy." As an independent institution authorized by the US Congress, the Fed will never be dragged into political turmoil.

2."Is US Inflation Making a Comeback?"Certainly, the biggest variable regarding interest rate cuts is inflation. This year's inflation data has put the Federal Reserve in a somewhat awkward position. Firstly, energy prices have been steadily rising. Crude oil prices have reached $86, noticeably impacting Americans at the gas station.Gold prices have recently surged, breaking the $2300 mark and hitting historic highs, signaling market expectations of further inflation. While the Fed may attribute the rise in oil prices to Middle East tensions, financial markets find this hard to accept. Looking at the real estate market, the overall US housing market price index has risen by about 4% this year, and rents have increased. Consequently, the equivalent rent weight within the CPI is bound to con

Now it's early April, and the eagerly anticipated interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, has yet to materialize. There have even been recent remarks from Fed officials suggesting the possibility of raising interest rates. In light of this, let's delve into some in-depth interpretation and analysis.One can reflect on the various optimistic statements in the financial markets since October last year. At that time, analysts from Goldman Sachs predicted that the Federal Reserve would begin an interest rate cut cycle in January of this year. While the consensus on Wall Street wasn't as extreme, there was also a belief that the Fed would initiate an interest rate cut cycle in March of this year.So why hasn't the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) acted to cut interest rates yet?1. Recentl

Commercial property owners have thrived in a world of cheap debt, which has made real estate investments relatively attractive. But as interest rates rose, this high led to a predictable reckoning:"The scale of the cyclical resetting in property valuations is as big as the early 1990s or the global financial crisis," said Alex Knapp, chief investment officer for Europe at Hines, a $100 billion global private real estate investor. "This is a big one, if that wasn’t obvious." Many property owners are saddled with unrealized losses. Tom Leahy, executive director at MSCI Research, estimated in September that about 50% of commercial real estate assets in London are now worth less than what they were bought for. New York is doing relatively well, with only one in five in the red, but many office

In 2023, all kinds of financial products on a global scale have undergone tremendous challenges. We have also seen many unprecedented financial phenomena. This requires us, as a cross-border financial institution, to carefully observe and meditate. It seems like only yesterday that I was writing about the top ten predictions for 2023, but the year has passed quickly.I remember when I first joined Morgan Stanley to work on Wall Street after graduating with a Ph.D. from the University of Lausanne in Switzerland over two decades ago. Each year-end, we would study the top ten global economic predictions for the coming year by the company's Chief US Economist, Byron Wien. The debates between him and Steven Roach, Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist at the time, on macroeconomic topics were immense

China's growth has finally bottomed out, and a rare increase in the deficit this year suggests better prospects for growth in the near term. In 2024, we expect GDP growth of 4.5%, a balance between economic growth and deleveraging, while waiting for more policy signals. While more infrastructure stimulus should mitigate downside risks, sharp structural problems such as underconsumption and debt deleveraging will still take time and more difficult policy decisions to address.Therefore, we do not think that China's foreign exchange and interest rates will shine. If the strong dollar trend continues, the need to restructure debt while keeping domestic interest rates low will continue to limit the exchange rate of RMB. We expect only a mild bull steep rebound in RMB interest rates. With the is

Economic Club of New York welcomes the Federal Reserve Board Chair Powell to give a lunch speech today! He is laser focused on getting inflation down to 2%. He spoke about the stronger than expected consumption and labor market in the U.S. Powell of the Fed Chair: the U.S. economy is much stronger than we expected, given the high interest rate level…ImageImageImageImage

Hello Tigers,This article was jointly written by Kevin Chen, chief economist of Horizon Financial, adjunct professor at New York University, and Cao Huining, professor at Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business.1. Crude oil, gold and foreign exchange markets On Saturday, October 7, after the outbreak of conflict, crude oil futures opened with a sharp 4.5% gain on Sunday night. However, many fund managers and sell-side analysts on Wall Street generally felt that the crude oil market's response was below expectations.The reaction appears to be lower than before for several reasons:Firstly, crude oil $WTI Crude Oil - main 2312(CLmain)$ prices have already risen sharply in September due to production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Compared

Treasury yields dropped sharply, with the 2-year rate dipping below 5%. Market is calling the Fed bluff.ImageBond yields tend to peak around the time of the last Fed rate hike. I don’t expect any more rate hikes, which is why I turned positive on bonds recently.ImageCorporate earnings are going down. CEOs will talk about new challenges during their Q3 calls.I don’t see any reason for the Fed to hike rate again. If anything, rate cuts are coming for the U.S., Canada, Eurozone, and England…

After Trump reported that he would go to Detroit on September 27 to deliver a speech to the United Auto Workers.US. President Biden announced on social media that he will join members of the United Auto Workers in Detroit on the picket line on Tuesday.Biden likes to call himself the most pro-union president, and visiting striking workers — a highly unusual move for a president — is sure to send a strong message.“On Tuesday, I will be heading to Michigan to join the picket lines in solidarity with the men and women of the UAW as they fight for the value they create,” he wrote on X (formerly Twitter). “Now is the time for a win-win deal , keeping the U.S. auto manufacturing industry thriving through good-paying UAW jobs."Biden to join UAW pickets in Detroit as strike intensifiesUAW President