许亚鑫

泓泽资本创始合伙人及首席策略师,匠鑫学院院长,新华社特约评论员

    • 许亚鑫许亚鑫
      ·03-15

      PPI Above Expectations After Months of Inflation Progress,What Does It Mean For GOLD& OIL

      At 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday, March 14th, the US Department of Labor released the PPI data for February, which exceeded expectations in terms of year-on-year, month-on-month and core PPI year-on-year data. Relaying the previous CPI data, it further continued to imply the stubbornness of inflation.Data show that the PPI of the United States warmed up beyond expectations in February, rising by 1.6% year-on-year, and the previous value was 1.2%.Far exceeding the expected 0.9%; PPI accelerated by 0.6% month-on-month,It is twice the expected value,The previous value is 0.3%.PictureThe core PPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 2% year-on-year, which was the same as the previous value.Exceeding expectations by 1.9%;The core PPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, which was less than th
      1.20KComment
      Report
      PPI Above Expectations After Months of Inflation Progress,What Does It Mean For GOLD& OIL
    • 许亚鑫许亚鑫
      ·02-29

      Gold Seen Lower Ahead of U.S. PCE Inflation Data,What To Watch Tonight?

      According to CME "Federal Reserve Observation", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in March is 97.5%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 2.5%. By May, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 82.2%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 17.4%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 0.4%.PictureAs can be seen from the above figure, the current price of the futures market has expected that the Fed will stay put in March and May, and the time node when it is more likely to cut interest rates will be postponed until June this year,It is basically consistent with the expectations that the Fed wanted to guide before.On February 28th, at 21:30
      1.17KComment
      Report
      Gold Seen Lower Ahead of U.S. PCE Inflation Data,What To Watch Tonight?
    • 许亚鑫许亚鑫
      ·2023-11-30

      Is Gold in the Beginning of a Historic Short Squeeze?

      With the publication of comments from two important Fed directors overnight, the market speculation that the Fed will cut interest rates in 2024 is more intense.First,Governor Waller, one of the Fed's toughest officials, said that the policy is in place to return the inflation rate to the Fed's target of 2%, indicating that policy makers may not need to rate hike again.Second,Bowman, another Fed governor, said she is still willing to support rate hike if inflation stagnates, but did not express her support for next month's rate hike.It should be said that the speeches of the above-mentioned two directors with permanent voting rights are dovish and hawkish, and the market directly interprets them as all dovish,That is to say, the Federal Reserve has recognized the cowardice and can't bear i
      2.72K7
      Report
      Is Gold in the Beginning of a Historic Short Squeeze?
    • 许亚鑫许亚鑫
      ·2023-10-19

      Here's How The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict May Cause the Next Oil Crisis

      US President Biden flew to the Middle East in a hurry, but still failed to prevent the tragedy from happening.On the 17th, local time, the "Ahli Arab Hospital" (also known as Baptist Hospital) in Gaza City, Gaza Strip was attacked by air, killing at least 500 Palestinians. Jordanian Foreign Minister Safadi announced in the early morning of 18th that he would cancel the quadripartite summit with the United States, Egypt and Palestine.At the meeting in Jeddah, Iran's foreign minister stressed the need to sanction Israel, impose an oil embargo and withdraw its ambassador.Affected by this, the risk aversion warmed up across the board. The price of spot gold once climbed to $1,962/oz, and WTI crude oil once surged to $88.57/barrel. At present, both of them have declined.Of course, due to the fe
      2.37K1
      Report
      Here's How The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict May Cause the Next Oil Crisis
    • 许亚鑫许亚鑫
      ·2023-10-08

      What does a stronger than expected non-farm Payrolls mean for the market?

      According to the forecast of 23 large investment banks, the increase of non-farm payrolls in the United States is expected to be between 150,000 and 240,000, the unemployment rate is expected to be between 3.6% and 3.9%, and the average hourly wage is expected to increase at an annual rate of 4.3%-4.4%.The final data showed that the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 336,000 in September, the largest increase since the beginning of this year.Far exceeding the expected 170,000, the value was 187,000 in early August.What is even more exaggerated is that the employment data of the previous two months has also been greatly revised upwards: the number of new people in August was revised up by 40,000 to 227,000; The number of new people in July was greatly revised from
      7.89K7
      Report
      What does a stronger than expected non-farm Payrolls mean for the market?
    • 许亚鑫许亚鑫
      ·2023-09-06

      Oil Soars To New 2023 High After This Major Event Happened,$100 Oil Price May Not Be Far

      At about 21:00 Beijing time, WTI crude oil price suddenly soared, with an increase of more than 1.35% within a few minutes, while Brent crude oil hit the $90/barrel mark for the first time since November last year. Affected by this, some domestic futures varieties continued to rise after opening at night, with the main contracts of feed oil and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) rising by over 2% and SC crude oil rising by nearly 2%.PictureSaudis announced that it would extend the voluntary production reduction of 1 million barrels per day for three months.Russia announced that it will continue to voluntarily reduce the oil supply by 300,000 barrels per day until the end of December 2023.In addition, Saudi Arabia also indicated that it will review the voluntary production reduction decision every mo
      1.32KComment
      Report
      Oil Soars To New 2023 High After This Major Event Happened,$100 Oil Price May Not Be Far
    • 许亚鑫许亚鑫
      ·2023-08-04

      Fitch cuts US credit rating to AA+,Here is what it means for the market

      Fitch Ratings, an international rating agency, downgraded the Long-Term Rating from "AAA" to "AA +", and its outlook changed from negative to stable. The reason is that the fiscal situation is expected to deteriorate in the next three years, and the government debt burden is high and increasing.PictureIn response, US Treasury Secretary Yellen immediately refuted it as "arbitrary and out of date".Former US Treasury Secretary Summers said: "There is no doubt about the solvency of the United States."The White House then issued a special statement saying, "At a time when President Biden achieved the strongest recovery of any major economy in the world,Downgrading the U.S. is Contrary to reality. "Indeed, if you just look at the small non-agricultural ADP data released tonight, you really have
      1.91K1
      Report
      Fitch cuts US credit rating to AA+,Here is what it means for the market
    • 许亚鑫许亚鑫
      ·2023-07-20

      Hedge funds increase bets dollar will decline further, 3 opportunities ahead.

      According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC),Hedge funds became net sellers of dollars last week for the first time since March, which means that the market has started voting with real money .This is why I want to remind you earlier that commodities should transition from rebound to reversal, and one of the main factors contributing to the rebound of Big A share is the break of the US Dollar Index.PictureThe US Dollar Index fell 2.24% last week, with the dollar losing the most against the Swedish kronor, Swiss franc and Japanese yen. The contribution of the euro, which has the highest weight, to the US Dollar Index's depreciation is basically close to its weight.In Europe, the reason for the higher euro/US dollar is the poor monetary policy expectations between the two cen
      1.12K2
      Report
      Hedge funds increase bets dollar will decline further, 3 opportunities ahead.
    • 许亚鑫许亚鑫
      ·2023-07-13

      This round of Fed rate hike is coming to an end, what can we expect from it?

      At 20:30 Beijing time, the data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the year-on-year increase of CPI in June in the United States continued to fall from 4% in May to 3%, which was lower than expected by 3.1%.It declined for the 12th consecutive month and was the lowest since March 2021;CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, higher than the previous value of 0.1%, but lower than the expected 0.3%.PictureSimultaneously, the core CPI-excluding food and energy-which economists believe is a better measure of potential inflation-rose 4.8% year-on-year, which was lower than the expected 5% and the previous value of 5.3%.It is the lowest since October 2021, but it is still far higher than the target of the Federal Reserve; The core CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, which was also lo
      2.00K6
      Report
      This round of Fed rate hike is coming to an end, what can we expect from it?
    • 许亚鑫许亚鑫
      ·2023-06-15

      Two More Rate Hikes ahead this year?What Does it mean For Gold?

      before the interest rate meeting here, there were four combinations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June:First, rate hike 25 basis points + doves press conference;Second, rate hike 25 basis points + hawkish press conference;Third, stay put + doves press conference;Fourth, stay put + hawkish press conference.Obviously, if the Fed chooses 3, then precious metals will soar, and if it chooses 2, then precious metals will plummet. Both of them are actually small probabilities, and the final cash should be 1 and 4, while I firmly believes that it is 4,That is, before the interest rate meeting, bulls have an advantage, but the press conference is likely to be hawkish and market will dive.It's a pity that the volatility of gold price is limited in the end, and it didn't reach aro
      2.86K8
      Report
      Two More Rate Hikes ahead this year?What Does it mean For Gold?
     
     
     
     

    Most Discussed

     
     
     
     
     

    Company: TTMF Limited. Tech supported by Xiangshang Yixin.

    Email:uservice@ttm.financial