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- EricBongEricBong
  ·2021-08-22
  Good
  Tiger Comments: Overnight US Stocks "Running Account"
  市场综述美股周五股指攀升，在周一触顶又经历了一周的动荡后，美股在纳指带领下上涨，市场聚焦下周杰克森霍尔会议中美联储主席鲍威尔针对Taper、通胀预期以及疫情前景的讲话。特斯拉举行针对AI和机器人技术
  Tiger Comments: Overnight US Stocks "Running Account"
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- EricBongEricBong
  ·2021-08-16
  Mmm
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- EricBongEricBong
  ·2021-08-15
  Good
  Chuan Xiaohongshu began a new round of financing with a valuation of over $10 billion
  小红书此前已经完成六轮融资，最新一轮融资在今年上半年。
  Chuan Xiaohongshu began a new round of financing with a valuation of over $10 billion
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- EricBongEricBong
  ·2021-08-10
  555
  Rogers: The most brutal bear market in history may begin at this time
  罗杰斯说道：“2008年时，股市的问题主要是在于，我们背负了太多债务。可是，2008年之后直至今天，债务更火箭一般窜升。因此，下一次我们遇到熊市时，只能比那次严酷得多。” 现在，债券已经处在泡沫当中
  Rogers: The most brutal bear market in history may begin at this time
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- EricBongEricBong
  ·2021-07-07
  666
  $1.3 trillion "big transfer", this summer is doomed to not be quiet
  今年夏天美国货币市场将重新“洗牌”，会有大量资金易手，规模达上万亿美元。
  $1.3 trillion "big transfer", this summer is doomed to not be quiet
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- EricBongEricBong
  ·2021-06-29
  Okoklah
  Dalio's latest speech: Stocks aren't necessarily in a bubble right now
  全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达里奥6月24日连发两篇推文，介绍自己衡量泡沫的六项指标，并发布了一个10分钟的视频阐述自己对当下股市泡沫的看法。在这个应罗宾汉基金会要求解释股票泡沫的视频中，达里奥表示，
  Dalio's latest speech: Stocks aren't necessarily in a bubble right now
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After peaking on Monday and experiencing another week of turmoil, U.S. stocks rose under the lead of the Nasdaq. The market focused on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech on Taper, inflation expectations and the outlook of the epidemic at next week's Jackson Hole meeting. Tesla held a press conference on AI and robotics, Microsoft announced that it would raise the subscription price of Microsoft Office 365 Business Enterprise Edition, Apple announced that it would let employees return to work in the office next year due to the epidemic, and vaccine chip stocks rose. Tesla rose 1.01%, Nvidia rose 5.14%, Microsoft rose 2.56%, Apple rose 1.02%, and BioNTech rose 5.08%.</p><p>Chinese stocks rebounded, and the CSRC held a blockbuster meeting and said that it would create conditions to promote Sino-US audit supervision cooperation. The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress voted to pass the Personal Information Protection Law of the People's Republic of China, which makes legislative provisions for the collection and transfer of consumer data by technology companies. Li Auto rose 3.70%, JD.COM rose 2.30% and Pinduoduo rose 3.48%.</p><p><b>Market Spotlight Next Week's Jackson Hole Meeting</b></p><p>Judging from the number of employees and quarterly reports of enterprises in the United States, the U.S. economy is still performing strongly at present, but investors are worried about the further deterioration of the situation that may be caused by the Delta variant strain. According to the minutes of the July meeting of the Federal Reserve released on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve hopes to start reducing its monthly asset purchases before the end of this year, and some Federal Reserve officials hope to start action in the short term, such as the shrinking balance sheet announced at the September FOMC meeting. The officials worry that the continued rise in inflation will push U.S. inflation above the previously set 2% inflation target next year and will ultimately affect the pace of economic recovery. Preliminary data from a consumer survey conducted by the University of Michigan showed that the consumer confidence index fell sharply this month. The Commerce Ministry's retail sales report showed spending weakened in July, and credit card data showed conditions worsened further in August.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1a5a0503cad96285d291bf33145dee6\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Fed Chairman Powell will speak on the economic outlook at the Jackson Hole Symposium next Thursday and Friday, the Federal Reserve said Thursday. Powell's speech has attracted great attention from the market. It is expected that he will give a signal on whether to start reducing bond purchases in September, his views on Delta variant strain and inflation expectations, and the expectation of economic development in the post-epidemic era in this meeting. Previously, Powell believed that the high inflation data should only be a temporary phenomenon.</p><p>Global growth is expected to be very strong in the coming months, but also very uneven, and if inflation proves to be the longer-term state, it will change the pace at which the Federal Reserve has previously tightened monetary policy, JPMorgan Asset Management's Gimber said. The greater the impact of the Delta variant, the less likely it is that the Fed will start tapering purchases, and investors are more willing to face the rumored tapering of asset purchases rather than the state of the Delta variant spreading out of control and weighing on the global economy, according to Tactical Alpha's Young.</p><p>Powell himself has experienced * pressure, with his 4-year term as Fed chair ending next February. Previously, Warren, a Democratic activist, had criticized Powell's actions in relaxing banking supervision in a July hearing, and Brown, a Democratic senator from Ohio and chairman of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, also expressed similar criticism. The committee is tasked with holding hearings on the confirmation of the Fed's nominees. On Thursday, Republican Senator Daines said in a letter to President Biden that Biden should let Powell run the Federal Reserve again for four years to build confidence in the economic recovery. The U.S. economy is still facing significant risks. The letter is a formal statement by the Banking Committee on Powell's *.</p><p>By the close, the Dow rose 0.65% to 35,120.08 points; The S&P 500 rose 0.81% to 4,441.67 points; The Nasdaq rose 1.19% to 14,714.66.</p><p><b>Audit and Data Supervision of China Concept Stocks</b></p><p>The CSRC held the 2021 year-end supervision work meeting of the system to analyze the current situation and study and deploy key tasks in the next stage. Yi Huiman, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of the CSRC, delivered a report entitled \"Persisting in Seeking Progress while Maintaining Stability, Deepening Reform and Opening-up, and Further Promoting High-quality Development of Capital Market\". At the meeting, it was proposed that we should unswervingly promote the institutional opening of the capital market to the outside world, create conditions to promote Sino-US audit supervision cooperation, strengthen market communication, and stabilize policy expectations and institutional environment. We will deepen the interconnection between the Mainland and Hong Kong markets and strengthen the stable development of Hong Kong's capital market. Since the beginning of this year, the CSRC has repeatedly stated its position on the listing of Chinese companies in the United States and the audit supervision of Chinese stocks, and sought to strengthen cross-border supervision and cooperation with relevant US regulatory agencies in the financial field.</p><p>Today, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, the highest legislature, passed the Personal Information Protection Law, which will take effect from November 1, Xinhua News Agency reported. According to the report, operators of critical information infrastructure and personal information reach the amount of personal information specified by the national network information department, and the personal information processed and collected in China should be stored in China; Those that need to be provided overseas should pass the security assessment organized by the national cyberspace department.</p><p>By the close, JD.COM rose 2.30%, Alibaba fell 1.61%, Didi rose 3.75%, Tencent Music rose 3.18% and Bilibili rose 3.44%. The following chart shows the price trend of major Chinese stocks in the past month.</p><p><b>U.S. tech stocks lead gains without the pandemic holding back</b></p><p>At present, there are 143,827 new confirmed cases in the United States in a single day, an increase of 44% from the average 14 days ago; There were 911 new deaths in a single day, an increase of 108% compared with the average 14 days ago; The number of new hospitalizations in a single day was 86,877, an increase of 53% from the average 14 days ago. The U.S. Safe Transportation Bureau said it would extend the epidemic prevention order of wearing masks during the epidemic until January 18th next year, the Department of Homeland Security said it would extend the restriction on the land border with the United States and Canada until September 21st, and New York City started the policy of people entering public places to show vaccine certificates from 17th. Apple delayed the return of employees to the office from October to January next year and strongly encouraged employees to get vaccinated. Intel CEO said that employees who received the COVID-19 vaccine would offer cash incentives. Today, the U.S. stock market once again returned to the state where technology stocks drove other sectors to rise during the epidemic. The following chart shows the trend of hospitalizations in COVID-19 in the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01dce123e84e2f142c4d05a2241f448d\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Tesla held an AI day yesterday, saying that it will launch its own artificial intelligence training computer Dojo chip, and announced plans to build humanoid robots that can perform repetitive tasks. Musk said that AI chips and robot prototypes may be ready next year, and said that the deployment of such robots will fundamentally change the economy and alleviate labor shortages. The robot is about 172 kg tall, weighs about 112 kg, and can reach a speed of 8 kilometers per hour. The prototype of the robot includes 8 cameras and face screens, as well as batteries, chips, robotic arms and other components, among which AI chips and batteries will be important structures.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6ed67ebc2860a2c5f4dbf03f93db74c\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Tesla has drawn widespread attention since last week amid a U.S. Traffic Administration investigation into its Autopilot autonomous driving technology, with regulators investigating the company's 11 traffic accidents involving autonomous driving recognition technology since January 2018. Two senators this week asked for an investigation into whether Tesla overstated its self-driving capabilities in marketing. Tesla has not responded to the security investigation or the senator's request at this time.</p><p>Microsoft has announced an increase in subscription prices for Microsoft Office 365 Business Enterprise Edition, the first substantial price increase since Microsoft launched the product 10 years ago. Microsoft says the new price will take effect in six months. As prices rise, Microsoft will also expand audio conferencing capabilities in the coming months, adding unlimited dial-up capabilities to enterprise, business, frontline, and government versions of Microsoft Teams meetings, as well as subscription support for more than 70 countries, and also interactive support in 44 languages and dialects. Several investment banks raised their price targets for Microsoft, with UBS, Wedbush and Mizuho raising their price targets for Microsoft from $325 to $350. Driven by the news, Microsoft's stock price stood at $300 for the first time today.</p><p><b>The Hotspots of American Current Politics</b></p><p>Biden held a press conference today, promising to evacuate all Americans who wish to leave Afghanistan and saying he would seek help from allies. At the same time, Biden stressed that the evacuation could not be guaranteed as a final result, but promised to mobilize all necessary resources. Biden said the U.S. has evacuated 18,000 people from Afghanistan since July, including 13,000 since the military began airlift operations on Aug. 14, with the White House saying 5,700 people left the country in the past 24 hours. Senators from both parties in Congress are calling for a hearing next week on the administration's handling of the withdrawal of U.S. troops to investigate the causes of the political and military collapse in Afghanistan. The State Department's internal memo in July had warned of a collapse in Kabul following the withdrawal of U.S. troops, the Wall Street Journal reported. The latest released poll showed Biden's approval rating dropped seven percentage points to its lowest since taking office. At the same time, it is reported that US Vice President Harris is about to pay a visit to Vietnam and Singapore. Israeli Prime Minister Bennett will visit the United States on Aug. 26, the White House said.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tiger Comments: Overnight US Stocks \"Running Account\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTiger Comments: Overnight US Stocks \"Running Account\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1005414032\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-21 09:29</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Market Overview</b></p><p>U.S. stock indexes climbed on Friday. After peaking on Monday and experiencing another week of turmoil, U.S. stocks rose under the lead of the Nasdaq. The market focused on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech on Taper, inflation expectations and the outlook of the epidemic at next week's Jackson Hole meeting. Tesla held a press conference on AI and robotics, Microsoft announced that it would raise the subscription price of Microsoft Office 365 Business Enterprise Edition, Apple announced that it would let employees return to work in the office next year due to the epidemic, and vaccine chip stocks rose. Tesla rose 1.01%, Nvidia rose 5.14%, Microsoft rose 2.56%, Apple rose 1.02%, and BioNTech rose 5.08%.</p><p>Chinese stocks rebounded, and the CSRC held a blockbuster meeting and said that it would create conditions to promote Sino-US audit supervision cooperation. The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress voted to pass the Personal Information Protection Law of the People's Republic of China, which makes legislative provisions for the collection and transfer of consumer data by technology companies. Li Auto rose 3.70%, JD.COM rose 2.30% and Pinduoduo rose 3.48%.</p><p><b>Market Spotlight Next Week's Jackson Hole Meeting</b></p><p>Judging from the number of employees and quarterly reports of enterprises in the United States, the U.S. economy is still performing strongly at present, but investors are worried about the further deterioration of the situation that may be caused by the Delta variant strain. According to the minutes of the July meeting of the Federal Reserve released on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve hopes to start reducing its monthly asset purchases before the end of this year, and some Federal Reserve officials hope to start action in the short term, such as the shrinking balance sheet announced at the September FOMC meeting. The officials worry that the continued rise in inflation will push U.S. inflation above the previously set 2% inflation target next year and will ultimately affect the pace of economic recovery. Preliminary data from a consumer survey conducted by the University of Michigan showed that the consumer confidence index fell sharply this month. The Commerce Ministry's retail sales report showed spending weakened in July, and credit card data showed conditions worsened further in August.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1a5a0503cad96285d291bf33145dee6\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Fed Chairman Powell will speak on the economic outlook at the Jackson Hole Symposium next Thursday and Friday, the Federal Reserve said Thursday. Powell's speech has attracted great attention from the market. It is expected that he will give a signal on whether to start reducing bond purchases in September, his views on Delta variant strain and inflation expectations, and the expectation of economic development in the post-epidemic era in this meeting. Previously, Powell believed that the high inflation data should only be a temporary phenomenon.</p><p>Global growth is expected to be very strong in the coming months, but also very uneven, and if inflation proves to be the longer-term state, it will change the pace at which the Federal Reserve has previously tightened monetary policy, JPMorgan Asset Management's Gimber said. The greater the impact of the Delta variant, the less likely it is that the Fed will start tapering purchases, and investors are more willing to face the rumored tapering of asset purchases rather than the state of the Delta variant spreading out of control and weighing on the global economy, according to Tactical Alpha's Young.</p><p>Powell himself has experienced * pressure, with his 4-year term as Fed chair ending next February. Previously, Warren, a Democratic activist, had criticized Powell's actions in relaxing banking supervision in a July hearing, and Brown, a Democratic senator from Ohio and chairman of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, also expressed similar criticism. The committee is tasked with holding hearings on the confirmation of the Fed's nominees. On Thursday, Republican Senator Daines said in a letter to President Biden that Biden should let Powell run the Federal Reserve again for four years to build confidence in the economic recovery. The U.S. economy is still facing significant risks. The letter is a formal statement by the Banking Committee on Powell's *.</p><p>By the close, the Dow rose 0.65% to 35,120.08 points; The S&P 500 rose 0.81% to 4,441.67 points; The Nasdaq rose 1.19% to 14,714.66.</p><p><b>Audit and Data Supervision of China Concept Stocks</b></p><p>The CSRC held the 2021 year-end supervision work meeting of the system to analyze the current situation and study and deploy key tasks in the next stage. Yi Huiman, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of the CSRC, delivered a report entitled \"Persisting in Seeking Progress while Maintaining Stability, Deepening Reform and Opening-up, and Further Promoting High-quality Development of Capital Market\". At the meeting, it was proposed that we should unswervingly promote the institutional opening of the capital market to the outside world, create conditions to promote Sino-US audit supervision cooperation, strengthen market communication, and stabilize policy expectations and institutional environment. We will deepen the interconnection between the Mainland and Hong Kong markets and strengthen the stable development of Hong Kong's capital market. Since the beginning of this year, the CSRC has repeatedly stated its position on the listing of Chinese companies in the United States and the audit supervision of Chinese stocks, and sought to strengthen cross-border supervision and cooperation with relevant US regulatory agencies in the financial field.</p><p>Today, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, the highest legislature, passed the Personal Information Protection Law, which will take effect from November 1, Xinhua News Agency reported. According to the report, operators of critical information infrastructure and personal information reach the amount of personal information specified by the national network information department, and the personal information processed and collected in China should be stored in China; Those that need to be provided overseas should pass the security assessment organized by the national cyberspace department.</p><p>By the close, JD.COM rose 2.30%, Alibaba fell 1.61%, Didi rose 3.75%, Tencent Music rose 3.18% and Bilibili rose 3.44%. The following chart shows the price trend of major Chinese stocks in the past month.</p><p><b>U.S. tech stocks lead gains without the pandemic holding back</b></p><p>At present, there are 143,827 new confirmed cases in the United States in a single day, an increase of 44% from the average 14 days ago; There were 911 new deaths in a single day, an increase of 108% compared with the average 14 days ago; The number of new hospitalizations in a single day was 86,877, an increase of 53% from the average 14 days ago. The U.S. Safe Transportation Bureau said it would extend the epidemic prevention order of wearing masks during the epidemic until January 18th next year, the Department of Homeland Security said it would extend the restriction on the land border with the United States and Canada until September 21st, and New York City started the policy of people entering public places to show vaccine certificates from 17th. Apple delayed the return of employees to the office from October to January next year and strongly encouraged employees to get vaccinated. Intel CEO said that employees who received the COVID-19 vaccine would offer cash incentives. Today, the U.S. stock market once again returned to the state where technology stocks drove other sectors to rise during the epidemic. The following chart shows the trend of hospitalizations in COVID-19 in the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01dce123e84e2f142c4d05a2241f448d\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Tesla held an AI day yesterday, saying that it will launch its own artificial intelligence training computer Dojo chip, and announced plans to build humanoid robots that can perform repetitive tasks. Musk said that AI chips and robot prototypes may be ready next year, and said that the deployment of such robots will fundamentally change the economy and alleviate labor shortages. The robot is about 172 kg tall, weighs about 112 kg, and can reach a speed of 8 kilometers per hour. The prototype of the robot includes 8 cameras and face screens, as well as batteries, chips, robotic arms and other components, among which AI chips and batteries will be important structures.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6ed67ebc2860a2c5f4dbf03f93db74c\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Tesla has drawn widespread attention since last week amid a U.S. Traffic Administration investigation into its Autopilot autonomous driving technology, with regulators investigating the company's 11 traffic accidents involving autonomous driving recognition technology since January 2018. Two senators this week asked for an investigation into whether Tesla overstated its self-driving capabilities in marketing. Tesla has not responded to the security investigation or the senator's request at this time.</p><p>Microsoft has announced an increase in subscription prices for Microsoft Office 365 Business Enterprise Edition, the first substantial price increase since Microsoft launched the product 10 years ago. Microsoft says the new price will take effect in six months. As prices rise, Microsoft will also expand audio conferencing capabilities in the coming months, adding unlimited dial-up capabilities to enterprise, business, frontline, and government versions of Microsoft Teams meetings, as well as subscription support for more than 70 countries, and also interactive support in 44 languages and dialects. Several investment banks raised their price targets for Microsoft, with UBS, Wedbush and Mizuho raising their price targets for Microsoft from $325 to $350. Driven by the news, Microsoft's stock price stood at $300 for the first time today.</p><p><b>The Hotspots of American Current Politics</b></p><p>Biden held a press conference today, promising to evacuate all Americans who wish to leave Afghanistan and saying he would seek help from allies. At the same time, Biden stressed that the evacuation could not be guaranteed as a final result, but promised to mobilize all necessary resources. Biden said the U.S. has evacuated 18,000 people from Afghanistan since July, including 13,000 since the military began airlift operations on Aug. 14, with the White House saying 5,700 people left the country in the past 24 hours. Senators from both parties in Congress are calling for a hearing next week on the administration's handling of the withdrawal of U.S. troops to investigate the causes of the political and military collapse in Afghanistan. The State Department's internal memo in July had warned of a collapse in Kabul following the withdrawal of U.S. troops, the Wall Street Journal reported. The latest released poll showed Biden's approval rating dropped seven percentage points to its lowest since taking office. At the same time, it is reported that US Vice President Harris is about to pay a visit to Vietnam and Singapore. Israeli Prime Minister Bennett will visit the United States on Aug. 26, the White House said.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e51dca4aea5a4f4975d48e2264c0446","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145710810","content_text":"市场综述\n美股周五股指攀升，在周一触顶又经历了一周的动荡后，美股在纳指带领下上涨，市场聚焦下周杰克森霍尔会议中美联储主席鲍威尔针对Taper、通胀预期以及疫情前景的讲话。特斯拉举行针对AI和机器人技术的发布会，微软宣布上调MicrosoftOffice 365商业企业版订阅价格，苹果宣布因疫情将让员工明年返回办公室工作，疫苗芯片股上涨，特斯拉涨1.01%，英伟达涨5.14%，微软涨2.56%，苹果涨1.02%，BioNTech涨5.08%。\n中概股反弹，证监会举行重磅会议并表示将创造条件推动中美审计监管合作。全国人大常委会表决通过《中华人民共和国个人信息保护法》，对科技公司收集和转移消费者数据作出立法规定。理想汽车涨3.70%，京东涨2.30%，拼多多涨3.48%。\n市场聚焦下周杰克森霍尔会议\n由美国就业人数及企业季报来看，目前美国经济仍表现强劲，但投资者对于Delta变异毒株可能引发的进一步局势恶化感到担忧。本周三公布的美联储7月会议纪要中显示，美联储希望今年年底前开始减少每月的资产购买量，部分美联储官员希望短期内就开始行动，比如9月FOMC会议中就宣布开始缩表。这些官员担心通胀率的持续上升将使美国明年的通胀率高于此前设定的2%通胀目标，并将最终影响到经济恢复的步伐。密歇根大学进行的消费者调查初步数据显示，消费者信心指数本月急剧下降。商务部公布的零售销售报告显示，7月支出减弱，信用卡数据显示8月情况进一步恶化。\n\n美联储周四表示，美联储主席鲍威尔将在下周四周五的杰克森霍尔研讨会上就经济展望发表演说。鲍威尔的这场演讲受到市场高度关注，预计他将在此次会谈中给出关于9月是否开始缩减购债的信号、对于Delta变异毒株及通胀预期的看法、以及后疫情时代经济发展的预期。此前鲍威尔认为通胀数据的偏高应只是暂时现象。\n摩根大通资产管理的Gimber表示，预计未来几个月全球经济增长将非常强劲，但也将非常不均衡，如果通胀被证明是更长期的状态，将改变美联储此前收紧货币政策的速度。Tactical Alpha的Young表示，Delta变异毒株的影响越大，美联储开始缩减购买的可能性就越小，投资者更愿意面对传闻中要进行的资产购买缩减，而不是Delta变异毒株蔓延失控并拖累全球经济的状态。\n鲍威尔本人也经历着连任压力，他的4年美联储主席任期将于明年2月结束。此前民主党激进派人士沃伦曾在7月听证会中批评鲍威尔在放松银行监管方面的作为，俄亥俄州民主党参议员、美国参议院银行委员会主席布朗也表达了类似的批评意见。该委员会负责就美联储提名人的确认举行听证会。周四共和党参议员Daines在写给总统拜登的信中表示，拜登应让鲍威尔再次执掌美联储4年以建立对经济复苏的信心，美国经济目前仍然面临着重大风险。这封信是银行委员会正式就鲍威尔连任进行的表态。\n截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.65%，报35120.08点；标普500指数涨0.81%，报4441.67点；纳斯达克指数涨1.19%，报14714.66点。\n中概股审计与数据监管\n中国证监会召开2021年系统年终监管工作会议，分析当前形势，研究部署下阶段重点工作。证监会党委书记、主席易会满发表题为《坚持稳中求进，深化改革开放，进一步推动资本市场实现高质量发展》的报告。会议中提出要坚定不移推动资本市场制度型对外开放，创造条件推动中美审计监管合作，加强市场沟通，稳定政策预期和制度环境。深化内地与香港市场互联互通，坚定香港资本市场稳定发展。今年以来证监会曾多次就中国公司赴美上市以及中概股审计监管进行表态，寻求与美方相关监管机构加强金融领域的跨境监管与合作。\n据新华社报道，今日最高立法机构全国人民代表大会常务委员会通过了个人信息保护法，该法律将于11月1日起生效。报道中提到，关键信息基础设施运营者和个人信息达到国家网信部门规定数量的个人信息，应将中国境内处理收集的个人信息存储于境内；需向境外提供的应通过国家网信部门组织的安全评估。\n截止收盘，京东涨2.30%，阿里巴巴跌1.61%，滴滴涨3.75%，腾讯音乐涨3.18%，哔哩哔哩涨3.44%。下图为近一个月以来主要中概股的价格走势。\n疫情不阻美国科技股领涨\n目前美国单日新增确诊143,827例，较14天前平均数值增长44%；单日新增死亡911，较14天前平均数值增长108%；单日新增住院人数86,877，较14天前平均数值增长53%。美国安全运输局表示将疫情期间佩戴口罩的防疫令延长至明年1月18日，国土安全部表示将与美加陆地边界的限制延长至9月21日，纽约市自17日起启动民众进入公共场所出示疫苗证明的政策。苹果公司推迟员工重返办公室时间由10月至明年1月并强烈鼓励员工接种疫苗，英特尔CEO表示接种新冠疫苗的员工提供现金奖励。美股市场今日再次回到疫情期间科技股带动其他板块上涨的状态，下图为美国新冠住院人数的走势图。\n\n特斯拉昨日举行AI日，表示将推出自己的人工智能训练计算机Dojo芯片，并宣布将制造可执行重复性任务的人形机器人的计划。马斯克表示AI芯片和机器人原型或将在明年准备就绪，并表示此类机器人的部署将从根本上改变经济、缓解劳动力短缺。该机器人身高约172，重量大概112斤，速度可达到8公里每小时，该机器人原型包括8个摄像机和脸部的屏幕，以及电池、芯片、机械臂等多个组成部分，其中AI芯片和电池将是重要结构。\n\n上周以来特斯拉因美国交管局对其Autopilot自动驾驶技术的调查引起广泛关注，监管机构调查该公司自2018年1月以来发生的11起涉及自动驾驶识别技术的交通事故。两名参议员本周要求调查特斯拉在营销中是否夸大其自动驾驶功能。目前特斯拉没有就该安全调查或参议员的要求作出回复。\n微软宣布上调MicrosoftOffice 365商业企业版订阅价格，这是微软自10年以前推出该产品以来首次实质性涨价。微软表示，新的价格将于6个月后生效。随着价格的增长，微软还将在未来几个月内扩展音频会议功能，为企业、商业、前线和政府版本的MicrosoftTeams会议增加无限的拨号功能，并为超过70个国家提供订阅支持，还支持44种语言和方言的交互式支持。多家投行上调对微软的目标价，瑞银、Wedbush和瑞穗将微软的目标价由$325上调至$350。受消息驱动，微软今日股价首次站上$300。\n美国时政热点\n拜登今日举行记者发布会，承诺将疏散所有希望离开阿富汗的美国人，并表示将寻求盟友的帮助。同时，拜登强调不能保证疏散的最终结果，但承诺将调动一切必要的资源。拜登表示，自7月以来美国已从阿富汗撤离了18,000人，包括自8月14日军方开始空运行动以来的13,000人，白宫称过去24小时内5,700人离开了阿富汗。国会两党参议员呼吁下周就政府对美军撤出的处理方式举行听证会，调查阿富汗出现政治和军事崩溃的原因。据华尔街日报报道，美国国务院7月的内部备忘录曾警告喀布尔会发生美军撤离后的崩溃。最新公布的民调显示，拜登的支持率下降了7个百分点至上任以来最低。同时据报道，美国副总统哈里斯即将对越南和新加坡进行访问。白宫表示，以色列总理贝内特将于8月26日访问美国。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830686168,"gmtCreate":1629070794354,"gmtModify":1676529918701,"author":{"id":"3566969517736877","authorId":"3566969517736877","name":"EricBong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fde094766f7e452651736b62882d9cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566969517736877","idStr":"3566969517736877"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Mmm","listText":"Mmm","text":"Mmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830686168","repostId":"2159260155","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2782,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897761535,"gmtCreate":1628987811027,"gmtModify":1676529903005,"author":{"id":"3566969517736877","authorId":"3566969517736877","name":"EricBong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fde094766f7e452651736b62882d9cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566969517736877","idStr":"3566969517736877"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/897761535","repostId":"1100243251","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100243251","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628935539,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100243251?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-14 18:05","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Chuan Xiaohongshu began a new round of financing with a valuation of over $10 billion","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100243251","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"小红书此前已经完成六轮融资，最新一轮融资在今年上半年。","content":"<p>According to the financial magazine, recently, a number of investors close to Xiaohongshu told reporters that Xiaohongshu has started a new round of financing, with a valuation of more than 10 billion dollars. Xiaohongshu has completed six rounds of financing before. The latest round of financing was in the first half of this year. Xiaohongshu did not disclose this round of financing to the public. The aforementioned investors said that the valuation at that time was about $6 billion.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chuan Xiaohongshu began a new round of financing with a valuation of over $10 billion</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChuan Xiaohongshu began a new round of financing with a valuation of over $10 billion\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-14 18:05</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>According to the financial magazine, recently, a number of investors close to Xiaohongshu told reporters that Xiaohongshu has started a new round of financing, with a valuation of more than 10 billion dollars. Xiaohongshu has completed six rounds of financing before. The latest round of financing was in the first half of this year. Xiaohongshu did not disclose this round of financing to the public. The aforementioned investors said that the valuation at that time was about $6 billion.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cec2264fc35e6e89a4846187d3ab20a4","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100243251","content_text":"据财经杂志报道，近日，多位接近小红书的投资人告诉记者，小红书已经开始新一轮融资，估值超过100亿美元。小红书此前已经完成六轮融资，最新一轮融资在今年上半年，小红书并未对外披露这一轮融资，前述投资人称，当时估值是60亿美元左右。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896335409,"gmtCreate":1628555536501,"gmtModify":1703507978429,"author":{"id":"3566969517736877","authorId":"3566969517736877","name":"EricBong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fde094766f7e452651736b62882d9cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566969517736877","idStr":"3566969517736877"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"555","listText":"555","text":"555","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/896335409","repostId":"1115482984","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115482984","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628514002,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1115482984?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-09 21:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Rogers: The most brutal bear market in history may begin at this time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115482984","media":" 腾讯美股","summary":"罗杰斯说道：“2008年时，股市的问题主要是在于，我们背负了太多债务。可是，2008年之后直至今天，债务更火箭一般窜升。因此，下一次我们遇到熊市时，只能比那次严酷得多。”\n\n现在，债券已经处在泡沫当中","content":"<p><b><i>Rogers said: \"In 2008, the problem with the stock market was mainly that we were saddled with too much debt. However, since 2008 and until today, debt has soared even more. So the next time we have a bear market, it can only be much harsher than that one.\"</i></b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8632dfa3f7d3fb56cea770ea3ec93e9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Now bonds are in a bubble, and many stocks are bubbling, as are housing markets in South Korea, New Zealand and many other places, except for low commodity prices. In a recent interview, legendary investor Jim Rogers discussed his views on commodity investment, and predicted that by the end of 2021 or 2022, everything will be completely bubbled, and the ensuing bear market will eclipse all previous bear markets in history.</p><p>The following is the full text of the interview:</p><p>Q: One of the biggest news of late is that corporate America has become more cautious in the face of the Delta variant. Amazon, for example, has postponed the timeline for employees to return to work. However, it seems that the market simply doesn't think seriously about the new threat of the epidemic.</p><p>A: We have all seen that prices in almost any market in the world have gone above the horizon. This is unprecedented because central banks all over the world print so much money. I am not an expert on timing, but I am sure that everything will come to an end in the coming months. We will witness something unprecedented.</p><p>Q: Unlike stocks, commodity prices seem to be more sensitive to pandemic-related news, such as crude oil prices reacting immediately. Could the epidemic bring a domino effect to raw material prices, inflation and even corporate profits?</p><p>A: In fact, the lowest asset category in the world at present is commodities. Bond markets all over the world are already in a bubble. Equity markets are also beginning to form bubbles in many places. Housing markets in South Korea, New Zealand and many other places have also bubbled. Goods are still cheap, though. The price of silver is 50% lower than its all-time high, and the price of oil is 50% lower. I certainly can't predict the exact changes in oil prices this week, but given the continued decline in known reserves and the bursting of the fracking bubble, I think the oil market is expected to show strength in the coming months. Every day, every week is hard to predict, but we all know that oil prices have fallen a lot from their all-time highs.</p><p>Q; You say reserves dwindling, fracking bubbles bursting, these are all supply side factors, but what is the outlook on the demand side? The world is moving to electric cars and the like, moving away from fossil fuels. Doesn't this mean that the fundamentals of oil can no longer be so strong?</p><p>A: It is true that the future of our world belongs to electric vehicles, which is already clear, but the whole process will take a long time. Henry Ford's wife owned an electric car. She didn't like internal combustion engines and believed that electric cars marked the future, but it was more than a hundred years ago. Yes, electric cars in the true sense of the word are already here, but changes can't be done overnight either. At the same time, oil reserves have continued to decline. I certainly don't mean to ask everyone to rush to speculate on oil, but I really have not given up hope for oil prices.</p><p>Q: So what do you think of the long-term outlook for oil prices? Under what circumstances will you decide that the crude oil game has really come to an end?</p><p>Many alternative energy sources have come to us, especially solar energy, wind energy, tidal energy, etc., but it will take a long time for these to really develop. As I said earlier, oil prices are 50 percent off their all-time highs, and the world's proven reserves continue to decline. The fracturing bubble burst while reserves dwindled at the same time. In view of this, I would not be surprised if oil prices jumped in the next two or three years because of supply and demand. We have to remember that the coin has two sides. Electric cars are indeed evolving, but it will take time, and the old Ford's wife has proven it.</p><p>Q: What is the situation with agricultural commodities, especially canteens? This also has something to do with defossilizing energy. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is now pushing for ethanol-fueled cars. He hopes that all car fuels will be blended with 80% ethanol by 2025. What do you think of the future of sugar?</p><p>A: Speaking of ethanol-fueled cars, Brazilians are already trying to develop them. The Americans are also using corn as a raw material to exploit. Agricultural-based fuels are entirely feasible. We will have more electric vehicles, and the latter will benefit the prices of many commodities. Electric cars require several times more copper, lead and nickel than ordinary cars. In the same way, cars fueled by sugar or corn or other agricultural products will also increase demand for the corresponding commodities. The use of oil is decreasing. There are many ways to trade commodities, and again, as I said earlier, commodities are the cheapest of all major assets so far in 2021.</p><p>Q: You've been a long-time bull pie for silver and gold. Let's take a look back at what has happened in just two weeks. Real yields on U.S. Treasury Bond have fallen to new lows, and the US Dollar Index has been sluggish. It seems that everything is ready for the gold price rise, and all it needs is the east wind, but the rise has not happened. What do you think about this?</p><p>A: I haven't bought either silver or gold lately, but I want to stress again that I am not a good trader. I am still waiting for the consolidation of silver and gold to deepen further. If I had to buy now, I would buy more silver than gold. Silver is 50% below its all-time high, while gold is only 10% away. In short, I certainly won't buy at the moment, but when I buy again, I will probably buy much more silver than gold.</p><p>Q: Do you still see the dollar as a safe haven, as you did in the past, or have you discovered other asset classes that are better than the dollar as a safe haven?</p><p>A: I still hold US dollars. The dollar had been lower for a while before the recent rally. When things go wrong, people will look for safe havens, and I estimate that they will invest dollars in return at least once or twice in the future. However, we must know that no reserve currency in history has sustained this status for a hundred or a hundred and fifty years. The dollar has been holding that identity for a while, and maybe it's all nearing the end. Of course, this will not happen this year, and it is unlikely that it will happen within two or three years, but given the alarming debt burden of the United States, this position of the dollar is actually very fragile.</p><p>Who can replace the dollar? I didn't know that. Yes, many people, including me, have invested in silver, but I still don't know which currency in the world can replace the US dollar. Of course, everyone is looking for a rival to the dollar, after all, the United States is already the number one debtor in global history.</p><p>Q: What is your judgment on the future direction of interest rates? How long can the current low interest rate policy of global central banks last under the threat of high inflation prospects?</p><p>A: Bonds are obviously in a bubble. Bond prices have never been more expensive in the history of the world we know, and it also needs to be seen that we are about to face higher interest rates. The major central banks will rack their brains to keep interest rates as low as possible, but sooner or later the market will say we don't care anymore and we don't want to play this game anymore.</p><p>Central bankers want to keep interest rates as low as possible, but there are mountains of debt everywhere. The supply of debt is staggering and inflation is coming. All these fundamentals point to interest rates. I'm not buying or shorting now, but there is no doubt that interest rates will have to go higher sooner or later, maybe not this quarter, but they will always not run in the next two or three years.</p><p>Q: As we all know, the European Central Bank has made it clear that negative interest rates will be around for longer, the Bank of England has also said that it is difficult for them to turn hawkish given the troubles of the Delta variant outbreak, and the US Federal Reserve has also said that rate hike is still a long way behind. What do you think? Are markets starting to sense the potential for a rate hike, and does that mean stocks are approaching their apex?</p><p>A: Sooner or later, there will be a day when the market will tell the central bank that we don't care, just add the rate hike when it is time. The market will always regain control of interest rates, and by then all stocks, real estate, loans, etc. will be in major trouble, because after the market gets control, interest rates will become very high. As I have said, the supply of bonds is surprisingly large now, and there will be more coming to the market in the future. Inflation is here too. These are the most fundamental fundamentals that will drive interest rates higher. As for the central bank, they have lost control many times in the past, and this time they will eventually lose it. By then, the stock market will have the worst bear market of my life.</p><p>In 2008, the problem with the stock market was mainly that we were saddled with too much debt. However, from 2008 to today, debt has generally soared like a rocket. So the next time we have a bear market, it can only be much harsher than that one.</p><p>Q: We have seen that so far this year, emerging markets have not performed as well as developed countries. What do you think is causing this? And what do higher interest rates mean for emerging markets and developed countries?</p><p>These things often originate from the edge of the market, where people don't pay much attention. We have now seen some banks in emerging markets and some small countries in trouble. When Lehman Brothers went bankrupt in 2008, everyone knew trouble was coming, but in reality, problems had been brewing in many markets around the world for months before that. However, although there are signs of problems, I am not selling the stock because there are still many stocks in many markets around the world that are not bubbling.</p><p>My expectation is that eventually everything will go into a bubble, but that may not be until later this year, or maybe 2022, when the finale will come and we will have a terrible big bear market. I'm not a doomsday prophet, I'm just saying that the scale of debt today is even more alarming than it was in 2008, and the next bear market will eclipse all other bear markets in history.</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rogers: The most brutal bear market in history may begin at this time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRogers: The most brutal bear market in history may begin at this time\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\"> 腾讯美股</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-09 21:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b><i>Rogers said: \"In 2008, the problem with the stock market was mainly that we were saddled with too much debt. However, since 2008 and until today, debt has soared even more. So the next time we have a bear market, it can only be much harsher than that one.\"</i></b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8632dfa3f7d3fb56cea770ea3ec93e9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Now bonds are in a bubble, and many stocks are bubbling, as are housing markets in South Korea, New Zealand and many other places, except for low commodity prices. In a recent interview, legendary investor Jim Rogers discussed his views on commodity investment, and predicted that by the end of 2021 or 2022, everything will be completely bubbled, and the ensuing bear market will eclipse all previous bear markets in history.</p><p>The following is the full text of the interview:</p><p>Q: One of the biggest news of late is that corporate America has become more cautious in the face of the Delta variant. Amazon, for example, has postponed the timeline for employees to return to work. However, it seems that the market simply doesn't think seriously about the new threat of the epidemic.</p><p>A: We have all seen that prices in almost any market in the world have gone above the horizon. This is unprecedented because central banks all over the world print so much money. I am not an expert on timing, but I am sure that everything will come to an end in the coming months. We will witness something unprecedented.</p><p>Q: Unlike stocks, commodity prices seem to be more sensitive to pandemic-related news, such as crude oil prices reacting immediately. Could the epidemic bring a domino effect to raw material prices, inflation and even corporate profits?</p><p>A: In fact, the lowest asset category in the world at present is commodities. Bond markets all over the world are already in a bubble. Equity markets are also beginning to form bubbles in many places. Housing markets in South Korea, New Zealand and many other places have also bubbled. Goods are still cheap, though. The price of silver is 50% lower than its all-time high, and the price of oil is 50% lower. I certainly can't predict the exact changes in oil prices this week, but given the continued decline in known reserves and the bursting of the fracking bubble, I think the oil market is expected to show strength in the coming months. Every day, every week is hard to predict, but we all know that oil prices have fallen a lot from their all-time highs.</p><p>Q; You say reserves dwindling, fracking bubbles bursting, these are all supply side factors, but what is the outlook on the demand side? The world is moving to electric cars and the like, moving away from fossil fuels. Doesn't this mean that the fundamentals of oil can no longer be so strong?</p><p>A: It is true that the future of our world belongs to electric vehicles, which is already clear, but the whole process will take a long time. Henry Ford's wife owned an electric car. She didn't like internal combustion engines and believed that electric cars marked the future, but it was more than a hundred years ago. Yes, electric cars in the true sense of the word are already here, but changes can't be done overnight either. At the same time, oil reserves have continued to decline. I certainly don't mean to ask everyone to rush to speculate on oil, but I really have not given up hope for oil prices.</p><p>Q: So what do you think of the long-term outlook for oil prices? Under what circumstances will you decide that the crude oil game has really come to an end?</p><p>Many alternative energy sources have come to us, especially solar energy, wind energy, tidal energy, etc., but it will take a long time for these to really develop. As I said earlier, oil prices are 50 percent off their all-time highs, and the world's proven reserves continue to decline. The fracturing bubble burst while reserves dwindled at the same time. In view of this, I would not be surprised if oil prices jumped in the next two or three years because of supply and demand. We have to remember that the coin has two sides. Electric cars are indeed evolving, but it will take time, and the old Ford's wife has proven it.</p><p>Q: What is the situation with agricultural commodities, especially canteens? This also has something to do with defossilizing energy. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is now pushing for ethanol-fueled cars. He hopes that all car fuels will be blended with 80% ethanol by 2025. What do you think of the future of sugar?</p><p>A: Speaking of ethanol-fueled cars, Brazilians are already trying to develop them. The Americans are also using corn as a raw material to exploit. Agricultural-based fuels are entirely feasible. We will have more electric vehicles, and the latter will benefit the prices of many commodities. Electric cars require several times more copper, lead and nickel than ordinary cars. In the same way, cars fueled by sugar or corn or other agricultural products will also increase demand for the corresponding commodities. The use of oil is decreasing. There are many ways to trade commodities, and again, as I said earlier, commodities are the cheapest of all major assets so far in 2021.</p><p>Q: You've been a long-time bull pie for silver and gold. Let's take a look back at what has happened in just two weeks. Real yields on U.S. Treasury Bond have fallen to new lows, and the US Dollar Index has been sluggish. It seems that everything is ready for the gold price rise, and all it needs is the east wind, but the rise has not happened. What do you think about this?</p><p>A: I haven't bought either silver or gold lately, but I want to stress again that I am not a good trader. I am still waiting for the consolidation of silver and gold to deepen further. If I had to buy now, I would buy more silver than gold. Silver is 50% below its all-time high, while gold is only 10% away. In short, I certainly won't buy at the moment, but when I buy again, I will probably buy much more silver than gold.</p><p>Q: Do you still see the dollar as a safe haven, as you did in the past, or have you discovered other asset classes that are better than the dollar as a safe haven?</p><p>A: I still hold US dollars. The dollar had been lower for a while before the recent rally. When things go wrong, people will look for safe havens, and I estimate that they will invest dollars in return at least once or twice in the future. However, we must know that no reserve currency in history has sustained this status for a hundred or a hundred and fifty years. The dollar has been holding that identity for a while, and maybe it's all nearing the end. Of course, this will not happen this year, and it is unlikely that it will happen within two or three years, but given the alarming debt burden of the United States, this position of the dollar is actually very fragile.</p><p>Who can replace the dollar? I didn't know that. Yes, many people, including me, have invested in silver, but I still don't know which currency in the world can replace the US dollar. Of course, everyone is looking for a rival to the dollar, after all, the United States is already the number one debtor in global history.</p><p>Q: What is your judgment on the future direction of interest rates? How long can the current low interest rate policy of global central banks last under the threat of high inflation prospects?</p><p>A: Bonds are obviously in a bubble. Bond prices have never been more expensive in the history of the world we know, and it also needs to be seen that we are about to face higher interest rates. The major central banks will rack their brains to keep interest rates as low as possible, but sooner or later the market will say we don't care anymore and we don't want to play this game anymore.</p><p>Central bankers want to keep interest rates as low as possible, but there are mountains of debt everywhere. The supply of debt is staggering and inflation is coming. All these fundamentals point to interest rates. I'm not buying or shorting now, but there is no doubt that interest rates will have to go higher sooner or later, maybe not this quarter, but they will always not run in the next two or three years.</p><p>Q: As we all know, the European Central Bank has made it clear that negative interest rates will be around for longer, the Bank of England has also said that it is difficult for them to turn hawkish given the troubles of the Delta variant outbreak, and the US Federal Reserve has also said that rate hike is still a long way behind. What do you think? Are markets starting to sense the potential for a rate hike, and does that mean stocks are approaching their apex?</p><p>A: Sooner or later, there will be a day when the market will tell the central bank that we don't care, just add the rate hike when it is time. The market will always regain control of interest rates, and by then all stocks, real estate, loans, etc. will be in major trouble, because after the market gets control, interest rates will become very high. As I have said, the supply of bonds is surprisingly large now, and there will be more coming to the market in the future. Inflation is here too. These are the most fundamental fundamentals that will drive interest rates higher. As for the central bank, they have lost control many times in the past, and this time they will eventually lose it. By then, the stock market will have the worst bear market of my life.</p><p>In 2008, the problem with the stock market was mainly that we were saddled with too much debt. However, from 2008 to today, debt has generally soared like a rocket. So the next time we have a bear market, it can only be much harsher than that one.</p><p>Q: We have seen that so far this year, emerging markets have not performed as well as developed countries. What do you think is causing this? And what do higher interest rates mean for emerging markets and developed countries?</p><p>These things often originate from the edge of the market, where people don't pay much attention. We have now seen some banks in emerging markets and some small countries in trouble. When Lehman Brothers went bankrupt in 2008, everyone knew trouble was coming, but in reality, problems had been brewing in many markets around the world for months before that. However, although there are signs of problems, I am not selling the stock because there are still many stocks in many markets around the world that are not bubbling.</p><p>My expectation is that eventually everything will go into a bubble, but that may not be until later this year, or maybe 2022, when the finale will come and we will have a terrible big bear market. I'm not a doomsday prophet, I'm just saying that the scale of debt today is even more alarming than it was in 2008, and the next bear market will eclipse all other bear markets in history.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ZQHN04kynwSMO59PKBpggQ\"> 腾讯美股</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8632dfa3f7d3fb56cea770ea3ec93e9","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ZQHN04kynwSMO59PKBpggQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115482984","content_text":"罗杰斯说道：“2008年时，股市的问题主要是在于，我们背负了太多债务。可是，2008年之后直至今天，债务更火箭一般窜升。因此，下一次我们遇到熊市时，只能比那次严酷得多。”\n\n现在，债券已经处在泡沫当中，而许多股票也开始泡沫化，同样泡沫化的还有韩国、新西兰和许多其他地方的房市，唯有大宗商品价格还算低廉。近日接受采访时，传奇投资人罗杰斯（Jim Rogers）讨论了自己对商品投资的看法，并预言说，到2021年底或者2022年，所有一切都将彻底泡沫化，而接踵而至的熊市将令史上之前的所有熊市黯然失色。\n以下即访谈全文：\n问：近期，最重大的新闻之一就是，面对德尔塔变种病毒的来袭，美国企业界变得更加谨慎了。比如，亚马逊已经推迟了员工返回工作的时间表。可是看上去，市场似乎对疫情的全新威胁根本不以为然。\n答：我们都已经看到了，几乎世界任何地方的市场，价格都涨破了天际。这堪称是史无前例，因为全世界的央行印出了这么多的钞票。我并不是什么选时操作的行家里手，但是我确信，一切都会在未来几个月画上句号。我们将目睹前所未有的一幕。\n问：与股票有所不同，商品价格看上去对于疫情相关新闻更加敏感一些，比如原油价格当即就做出了反应。疫情是否可能会给原材料价格、通货膨胀，乃至企业盈利带去一场骨牌效应？\n答：事实上，当前全世界价格最低廉的资产门类正是大宗商品。全世界的债市都已经处在泡沫当中。许多地方的股市也开始形成泡沫。韩国、新西兰和不少其他地方的房市也泡沫化了。不过，商品依然廉价。银的价格与历史最高点相比低了50%，石油价格也低了50%。我当然预测不了油价本周的具体变化，不过鉴于已知的储量持续减少，而压裂泡沫已经破灭，因此我觉得，未来几个月来说，石油市场预计还会呈现出强势。每一天每一周的情况难以预测，但是我们都知道，油价与历史最高点相比已经下跌了很多。\n问；你说储量减少，压裂泡沫破灭，这些都是供应面因素，但是需求面前景如何呢？这个世界正在转向电动汽车之类，逐渐远离化石燃料。难道这不是说明，石油的基本面已经不可能再那么强势了吗？\n答：确实，我们这个世界的未来属于电动汽车，这已经很清楚了，但是整个过程还需要很长的时间。老福特（Henry Ford）的太太就有一部电动汽车，她不喜欢内燃机，坚信电动汽车才标志着未来，但是说起来，那都是一百多年前的事情了。是的，真正意义上的电动汽车已经来了，但是变化也不可能一夜间完成。与此同时，石油储备还在持续下滑。我的意思当然不是要大家都赶快去炒石油，但是我对于石油价格确实没有放弃希望。\n问：那么你对油价的长期前景怎么看？到了怎样的情况下，你才会认定原油游戏真的到了落幕的时候？\n许多替代性能源都来到了我们面前，尤其是太阳能、风能、潮汐能等，但是这些真正发展起来都需要很长时间。我前面说了，油价距离历史最高点有50%的差距，而全世界的已探明储量都在持续下滑。压裂法的泡沫破灭了，而储量同时在减少。有鉴于此，如果油价因为供求关系的缘故在未来两三年内大涨，我是丝毫不会感到吃惊的。我们要记住，硬币是有两面的。电动汽车确实在发展，但是这需要时间，老福特的太太已经证明了这一点。\n问：农业大宗商品，尤其是食堂的情况怎样？这也和去化石能源有一定关系。印度总理莫迪现在正力推燃料乙醇汽车，他希望到2025年，所有的汽车燃料都能够混合80%乙醇。你对食糖的前景怎么看？\n答：说起乙醇燃料汽车，巴西人已经在努力发展了。美国人也在以玉米为原料开发。基于农产品的燃料完全是可行的。我们将拥有更多电动汽车，后者将令许多大宗商品的价格从中获益。电动汽车需要的铜、铅、镍都要数倍于普通汽车。同理，以食糖或者玉米或者其他农产品为燃料的汽车，也会令相应商品需求大增。石油的使用则是递减的态势。要交易大宗商品，我们有许多方法可以选择，而且还是前面说的那句话，大宗商品是2021年迄今为止所有主要资产当中价格最为低廉的。\n问：你一直是白银和黄金的长期牛派。让我们来回顾一下过去短短两周时间都发生了什么。美国国债的真实收益率跌到了新低，美元指数表现也很低迷。看上去，黄金价格涨势已经是万事俱备，只欠东风了，但是涨势却没有发生。你对此怎么看？\n答：我最近白银和黄金两者都没有买进，但是我要再强调一下，我不是一个好的交易者。我还在等待白银和黄金的盘整行情进一步深化。如果非要我现在就买进，与黄金相比，我会更多买进白银。白银较之历史最高点，当前的价位低了50%，而黄金的距离只有10%。总之，我在当下当然是都不会买进的，但是当我再度买进，我买进的白银估计要比黄金多得多。\n问：你还是像过去那样，认为美元是一个避风港，或者是你已经发现了其他的资产门类，后者作为避风港比美元更加出色？\n答：我依然持有美元。在近期的涨势前，美元已经走低了一段时间。当局面出现问题，人们就会去寻找避风港，我估计，他们至少未来一两次之内，还会投入美元的回报。只不过，我们必须知道，历史上，没有任何一种储备货币能够持续保持这种身份一百年或者一百五十年。美元拥有这种身份已经一段时间了，也许一切已经快到了尾声了。当然，这不会在今年发生，也不大可能在两三年内，但是考虑到美国债务负担如此惊人，美元的这个地位其实已经很脆弱了。\n谁能够代替美元？我并不知道。是的，包括我在内，许多人都投资了白银，但是我依然不知道现在世界上有哪种货币可以取代美元。当然，大家都在寻找美元的竞争对手，毕竟美国已经是全球历史上的头号债务国。\n问：你对利率未来的走向有何判断？在高通货膨胀前景的威胁之下，全球央行当下的低利率政策还能够延续多久？\n答：债券显然是处在泡沫当中的。在我们已知的世界历史上，债价从未如此昂贵，而且还需要看到，我们即将面对更高的利率。各大央行会绞尽脑汁，尽可能保持低利率，但是市场迟早会说我们不在乎了，我们不想再玩这场游戏了。\n央行银行家们想要尽可能保持低利率，但是各处都已经债如山积。债务供应量惊人，通货膨胀就要来了。所有这些基本面都指向了利率，我现在不买进也不做空，但是毫无疑问，利率迟早必须走高，也许不是这个季度，但是未来两三年里总是没有跑的。\n问：众所周知，欧洲央行已经明确表示，负利率将存在更长时间，英国央行也说，鉴于德尔塔变种病毒疫情爆发的麻烦，他们很难转向鹰派，而美国联储也表示，加息还是很远之后的事情。你觉得呢？市场是否已经开始感知到加息的潜在可能，而这是否意味着股市正在接近顶点？\n答：迟早会有那么一天，市场将告诉央行说，我们不在乎，该加息就加吧。市场总会重新获得利率的控制权，而到那时候，所有的股票、房地产、贷款等就将遇到重大的麻烦，因为市场得到控制权之后，利率将变得非常高。我已经说了，现在债券的供应量大到惊人，而且未来还将有更多债券来到市场上。通货膨胀也在这里了。这些都是最基本的基本面，将会推动利率走高。至于央行，他们过去也曾经多次失去控制权，而这一次最终也将失去，到那时候，股市就将遭遇我一生时间当中最可怕的熊市了。\n2008年时，股市的问题主要是在于，我们背负了太多债务。可是，2008年之后直至今天，债务更火箭一般窜升。因此，下一次我们遇到熊市时，只能比那次严酷得多。\n问：我们看到，今年迄今为止，新兴市场的表现是不及发达国家的。你觉得这是什么造成的？还有，更高的利率对于新兴市场和发达国家又各自意味着什么？\n这些事情往往都缘起于市场的边缘，人们不怎么重视的地方。我们现在已经看到新兴市场的一些银行和一些小国家遇到麻烦。2008年的时候，雷曼兄弟破产了，所有人就都知道麻烦来了，但是实际上，在那之前，问题已经在世界许多市场上酝酿了数月之久了。不过，虽然出现了问题的迹象，但是我现在并没有因此卖掉股票，因为在世界许多市场上，依然有不少股票并没有泡沫化。\n我的预期是，最终所有一切都会进入泡沫阶段，但是那也许要等到今年晚些时候，或者是2022年，那时也将是大结局到来的时间，我们将遭遇一场可怕的大熊市。我不是什么末日预言家，我只是要说，今天的债务规模比起2008年来还要更加惊人，而下一次熊市将令历史上所有其他熊市黯然失色。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157460582,"gmtCreate":1625610713346,"gmtModify":1703744714710,"author":{"id":"3566969517736877","authorId":"3566969517736877","name":"EricBong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fde094766f7e452651736b62882d9cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566969517736877","idStr":"3566969517736877"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/157460582","repostId":"2149353355","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2149353355","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1625546456,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2149353355?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-06 12:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"$1.3 trillion \"big transfer\", this summer is doomed to not be quiet","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2149353355","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"今年夏天美国货币市场将重新“洗牌”，会有大量资金易手，规模达上万亿美元。","content":"<p>The inflation alert in the United States seems to have been lifted, and the financial market binge continues under the appeasement of the Federal Reserve. Everything still seems to be in peace, but in an unnoticed corner of Wall Street, a storm is brewing.</p><p>Zoltan Pozsar smelled the crisis. The 42-year-old, Hungarian-born<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>Analyst, known for accurately predicting the movement of the reverse repo market.</p><p>Pozsar's warning came weeks before the big turmoil in U.S. currency markets in 2019, which earned him the nicknames \"the oracle of market plumbing\" and \"RepoLegend\".</p><p><b>This time, Pozsar expects that a large amount of money will change hands in the U.S. money market this summer, with a scale of trillions of dollars. \"If you think of bank reserves as a deck of cards, then this deck will be reshuffled.\" In Pozsar's view, such a large-scale money rotation is likely to trigger a market turmoil that is underestimated by most people.</b></p><p>Prior to joining Credit Suisse in 2015, Pozsar worked for the U.S. Treasury Department and the New York Fed. During the 2008 financial crisis, he helped senior White House officials and the U.S. Treasury department unblock the asset-backed bond market through the Term asset-backed Loan Facility. The vehicle allows investors to use money borrowed from the Federal Reserve to buy bonds tied to consumer and corporate debt.</p><p>All along, the reverse repo market in the United States has not received so much attention, but in recent months, it has frequently made headlines, becoming a microcosm of excess liquidity after the unprecedented release of water in the United States.</p><p><h2>Funds with nowhere to put</h2>According to the data released by the New York Fed, on Wednesday, June 30th, Eastern Time, the Fed's overnight reverse repo consumption approached $1 trillion for the first time in history, and a total of 90 counterparties deposited $991.9 billion in the Fed's overnight fixed rate reverse repo tool.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c85ed06c515b3021ba7bef75e9e2af90\" tg-width=\"786\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>While moving toward the key psychological integer digit of $1 trillion, this is also the 10 consecutive trading days that the number has exceeded $700 billion and the three consecutive trading days that it has exceeded $800 billion. The number of 90 counterparties on that day was also the highest since 2016.</p><p>Contrary to the open market operations of the People's Bank of China, the Fed releases liquidity through positive repurchases and recovers liquidity through reverse repurchases. Overnight reverse repurchase has the function of withdrawing liquidity. Qualified counterparties such as money market funds and banks deposit cash in the Federal Reserve in exchange for high-quality collateral such as U.S. Treasury Bond.</p><p>Wall Street News mentioned earlier,<b>The sharp surge in reverse repo balances reflects the current situation of excess liquidity in U.S. dollars in financial markets, in other words, overnight reverse repo is a market funding shelter during periods of excess liquidity:</b></p><p>When there is excess liquidity, in order to pursue safe assets, market funds often choose to buy U.S. Treasury Bond. When a large amount of funds buy U.S. bonds, the yield of U.S. bonds will continue to decline, and may even fall into the negative interest rate range. At this time, the overnight reverse repo agreement becomes a safe shelter for market funds, because the overnight reverse repo rate acts as the lower limit of the Fed's Interest Rate Corridor. Since the Fed does not want to fall into a negative interest rate, even in the post-epidemic zero interest rate environment, the overnight reverse repo rate level is 0%. Previously, the interest rate ON RRP of the overnight reverse repo vehicle, despite being only zero, still attracted a lot of money. This represents that money chasing short-term yields simply has nowhere to go but to the Fed without interest.</p><p>Two weeks ago, ON June 16th, the Federal Reserve FOMC announced that it would raise both the excess reserve rate (IOER) as the upper end of the Federal Funds rate range and the overnight reverse repo rate (ON RRP) as the lower end by 5 basis points, raising the ON RRP to 0.05%.</p><p><b>Subsequently, the use of the Fed's reverse repurchase tool further soared.</b></p><p><h2>A big rotation of funds</h2>Pozsar has been closely monitoring the movements in the reverse repo market.</p><p>He currently publishes Global Money Dispatch at least twice a week, which has become a must-read report for many traders, investment bankers and policymakers.</p><p>The Fed's monetary easing has distorted investor incentives, with ultra-low interest rates and central bank bond purchases keeping the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond hovering around 1.5%, below inflation, Pozsar said in a recent Dispatch:</p><p>Financial firms are willing to accept the Fed's negligible interest rates because the Fed's massive stimulus package has brought them a lot of money that has driven rates down to very low levels with few other places to put them. He believes that this may ultimately mean that bank deposits and reserves deposited in short-term Treasury Bond will flow back to the Federal Reserve through reverse repo instruments, and this shift may trigger unexpected fluctuations in unusual places.</p><p><b>\"We are talking about a massive rotation where a significant amount of money will flow from short-term Treasury Bond to reverse repo vehicles,\" Pozsa said.</b></p><p>In Pozsar's view, a rise in reverse repo rates should weaken demand for short-term US Treasury Bond from money market funds and foreign central banks. These deposits and the bank's reserves will eventually flow into the Fed, a process he calls a \"write-off.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2bc61dc127a8e37c4e601737f5b3c38\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But he doesn't see a big rise in short-term yields. He expects a gradual flow of reserves from banks to reverse repo vehicles as money managers allow short-term U.S. Treasury Bond to expire. He said Wall Street's careless approach to the shift underestimates its uncertain consequences, which could include unexpected swings.</p><p><b>Pozsar predicts that as short-term U.S. debt held by financial institutions such as money funds expires at the end of August, up to $1.3 trillion will be further poured into reverse repo tools:</b></p><p>As of May 31, large money funds held nearly $1 trillion in short-term debt, and the short-term debt held by these money funds will mature on August 31 — a large amount in a very short period of time. Moreover, this does not include the $300 billion in short-term debt held by smaller money funds. That said, by the end of August, we will see $1.3 trillion of money flowing from short-term debt into reverse repo!<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3008099054a9c0e46f21c9586e4f7bd\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><h2>A faucet that won't close</h2>The ongoing flood of liquidity has unnerved many analysts.</p><p>According to the Wall Street Journal,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Joshua Younger, head of interest rate derivatives strategy, notes that excess cash in reverse repo vehicles could signal trouble ahead:</p><p>Worryingly, this is just the tip of the iceberg and we can't see the rest of it. The more money that ends up returning to the facility, the greater the overall surplus, and the greater the risk that this surplus will be used in ways that destabilize. But there are also analysts who are more optimistic. They believe that the hundreds of billions of dollars flowing into the Fed's instrument suggest that excess cash is not flowing into more speculative bets such as GameStop or Bitcoin, and there is no harm in money flowing back and forth between the Fed, through the financial system and back to the central bank.</p><p>Gordon Shannon, portfolio manager at Twenty-Four Asset Management, said the huge dollar amounts involved could trigger temporary volatility as the money moves, but \"further growth in reverse repo use is not necessarily a dangerous sign.\"</p><p>But Pozsar is concerned.</p><p>In the short term, the withdrawal of large amounts of money from the short-term U.S. Treasury Bond may not have serious consequences. The U.S. debt ceiling will take effect at the end of July, putting pressure on the Treasury to reduce short-term debt issuance. Short-term investors are keen to snap up these Treasury Bond in anticipation of supply shortages in Treasury Bond.</p><p>But the Fed's ongoing quantitative easing is also injecting liquidity into the market.<b>Pozsar expects $250 billion of funds to pour into the market through QE in the next two months, bringing the scale of funds that need to be absorbed to $400 billion.</b></p><p>Pozsar said the \"write-off\" of $400 billion is a lot of money, and it could lead to market anomalies as banks restructure their balance sheets.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>$1.3 trillion \"big transfer\", this summer is doomed to not be quiet</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n$1.3 trillion \"big transfer\", this summer is doomed to not be quiet\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-06 12:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The inflation alert in the United States seems to have been lifted, and the financial market binge continues under the appeasement of the Federal Reserve. Everything still seems to be in peace, but in an unnoticed corner of Wall Street, a storm is brewing.</p><p>Zoltan Pozsar smelled the crisis. The 42-year-old, Hungarian-born<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>Analyst, known for accurately predicting the movement of the reverse repo market.</p><p>Pozsar's warning came weeks before the big turmoil in U.S. currency markets in 2019, which earned him the nicknames \"the oracle of market plumbing\" and \"RepoLegend\".</p><p><b>This time, Pozsar expects that a large amount of money will change hands in the U.S. money market this summer, with a scale of trillions of dollars. \"If you think of bank reserves as a deck of cards, then this deck will be reshuffled.\" In Pozsar's view, such a large-scale money rotation is likely to trigger a market turmoil that is underestimated by most people.</b></p><p>Prior to joining Credit Suisse in 2015, Pozsar worked for the U.S. Treasury Department and the New York Fed. During the 2008 financial crisis, he helped senior White House officials and the U.S. Treasury department unblock the asset-backed bond market through the Term asset-backed Loan Facility. The vehicle allows investors to use money borrowed from the Federal Reserve to buy bonds tied to consumer and corporate debt.</p><p>All along, the reverse repo market in the United States has not received so much attention, but in recent months, it has frequently made headlines, becoming a microcosm of excess liquidity after the unprecedented release of water in the United States.</p><p><h2>Funds with nowhere to put</h2>According to the data released by the New York Fed, on Wednesday, June 30th, Eastern Time, the Fed's overnight reverse repo consumption approached $1 trillion for the first time in history, and a total of 90 counterparties deposited $991.9 billion in the Fed's overnight fixed rate reverse repo tool.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c85ed06c515b3021ba7bef75e9e2af90\" tg-width=\"786\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>While moving toward the key psychological integer digit of $1 trillion, this is also the 10 consecutive trading days that the number has exceeded $700 billion and the three consecutive trading days that it has exceeded $800 billion. The number of 90 counterparties on that day was also the highest since 2016.</p><p>Contrary to the open market operations of the People's Bank of China, the Fed releases liquidity through positive repurchases and recovers liquidity through reverse repurchases. Overnight reverse repurchase has the function of withdrawing liquidity. Qualified counterparties such as money market funds and banks deposit cash in the Federal Reserve in exchange for high-quality collateral such as U.S. Treasury Bond.</p><p>Wall Street News mentioned earlier,<b>The sharp surge in reverse repo balances reflects the current situation of excess liquidity in U.S. dollars in financial markets, in other words, overnight reverse repo is a market funding shelter during periods of excess liquidity:</b></p><p>When there is excess liquidity, in order to pursue safe assets, market funds often choose to buy U.S. Treasury Bond. When a large amount of funds buy U.S. bonds, the yield of U.S. bonds will continue to decline, and may even fall into the negative interest rate range. At this time, the overnight reverse repo agreement becomes a safe shelter for market funds, because the overnight reverse repo rate acts as the lower limit of the Fed's Interest Rate Corridor. Since the Fed does not want to fall into a negative interest rate, even in the post-epidemic zero interest rate environment, the overnight reverse repo rate level is 0%. Previously, the interest rate ON RRP of the overnight reverse repo vehicle, despite being only zero, still attracted a lot of money. This represents that money chasing short-term yields simply has nowhere to go but to the Fed without interest.</p><p>Two weeks ago, ON June 16th, the Federal Reserve FOMC announced that it would raise both the excess reserve rate (IOER) as the upper end of the Federal Funds rate range and the overnight reverse repo rate (ON RRP) as the lower end by 5 basis points, raising the ON RRP to 0.05%.</p><p><b>Subsequently, the use of the Fed's reverse repurchase tool further soared.</b></p><p><h2>A big rotation of funds</h2>Pozsar has been closely monitoring the movements in the reverse repo market.</p><p>He currently publishes Global Money Dispatch at least twice a week, which has become a must-read report for many traders, investment bankers and policymakers.</p><p>The Fed's monetary easing has distorted investor incentives, with ultra-low interest rates and central bank bond purchases keeping the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond hovering around 1.5%, below inflation, Pozsar said in a recent Dispatch:</p><p>Financial firms are willing to accept the Fed's negligible interest rates because the Fed's massive stimulus package has brought them a lot of money that has driven rates down to very low levels with few other places to put them. He believes that this may ultimately mean that bank deposits and reserves deposited in short-term Treasury Bond will flow back to the Federal Reserve through reverse repo instruments, and this shift may trigger unexpected fluctuations in unusual places.</p><p><b>\"We are talking about a massive rotation where a significant amount of money will flow from short-term Treasury Bond to reverse repo vehicles,\" Pozsa said.</b></p><p>In Pozsar's view, a rise in reverse repo rates should weaken demand for short-term US Treasury Bond from money market funds and foreign central banks. These deposits and the bank's reserves will eventually flow into the Fed, a process he calls a \"write-off.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2bc61dc127a8e37c4e601737f5b3c38\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But he doesn't see a big rise in short-term yields. He expects a gradual flow of reserves from banks to reverse repo vehicles as money managers allow short-term U.S. Treasury Bond to expire. He said Wall Street's careless approach to the shift underestimates its uncertain consequences, which could include unexpected swings.</p><p><b>Pozsar predicts that as short-term U.S. debt held by financial institutions such as money funds expires at the end of August, up to $1.3 trillion will be further poured into reverse repo tools:</b></p><p>As of May 31, large money funds held nearly $1 trillion in short-term debt, and the short-term debt held by these money funds will mature on August 31 — a large amount in a very short period of time. Moreover, this does not include the $300 billion in short-term debt held by smaller money funds. That said, by the end of August, we will see $1.3 trillion of money flowing from short-term debt into reverse repo!<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3008099054a9c0e46f21c9586e4f7bd\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><h2>A faucet that won't close</h2>The ongoing flood of liquidity has unnerved many analysts.</p><p>According to the Wall Street Journal,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Joshua Younger, head of interest rate derivatives strategy, notes that excess cash in reverse repo vehicles could signal trouble ahead:</p><p>Worryingly, this is just the tip of the iceberg and we can't see the rest of it. The more money that ends up returning to the facility, the greater the overall surplus, and the greater the risk that this surplus will be used in ways that destabilize. But there are also analysts who are more optimistic. They believe that the hundreds of billions of dollars flowing into the Fed's instrument suggest that excess cash is not flowing into more speculative bets such as GameStop or Bitcoin, and there is no harm in money flowing back and forth between the Fed, through the financial system and back to the central bank.</p><p>Gordon Shannon, portfolio manager at Twenty-Four Asset Management, said the huge dollar amounts involved could trigger temporary volatility as the money moves, but \"further growth in reverse repo use is not necessarily a dangerous sign.\"</p><p>But Pozsar is concerned.</p><p>In the short term, the withdrawal of large amounts of money from the short-term U.S. Treasury Bond may not have serious consequences. The U.S. debt ceiling will take effect at the end of July, putting pressure on the Treasury to reduce short-term debt issuance. Short-term investors are keen to snap up these Treasury Bond in anticipation of supply shortages in Treasury Bond.</p><p>But the Fed's ongoing quantitative easing is also injecting liquidity into the market.<b>Pozsar expects $250 billion of funds to pour into the market through QE in the next two months, bringing the scale of funds that need to be absorbed to $400 billion.</b></p><p>Pozsar said the \"write-off\" of $400 billion is a lot of money, and it could lead to market anomalies as banks restructure their balance sheets.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634679\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de9cc40ad0d5fa6a8446c9f7e5823b3","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634679","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2149353355","content_text":"美国通胀警报似乎已经解除，在美联储的安抚之下，金融市场狂欢继续，一切看起来都似乎都还是一派歌舞升平的样子，但在华尔街一个不受关注的角落里，一场风暴正在酝酿。\nZoltan Pozsar嗅觉到了危机。这位42岁、出生于匈牙利的瑞士信贷分析师，以准确预测逆回购市场走势而闻名。\n2019年美国货币市场那场大动荡发生几周前，Pozsar就发出了警告， 这也为他赢得了“市场波动先知”（the oracle of market plumbing）和“回购传奇人物”（RepoLegend）的昵称。\n这一次，Pozsar预计，今年夏天美国货币市场将有大量资金易手，规模达上万亿美元，“如果你将银行储备视为一副牌，那么这副牌将被重新洗牌。”在Pozsar看来，这样一场大规模的资金轮换，很有可能引发一场被大多数人低估的市场动荡。\n在2015年加入瑞信信贷之前，Pozsar曾在美国财政部和纽约联储工作。在2008年金融危机期间，他曾协助白宫高级官员和美国财政部通过定期资产支持贷款工具(Term asset-backed Loan Facility)，疏通了资产支持债券市场。该工具允许投资者用从美联储借来的钱购买与消费者和企业债务相关的债券。\n一直以来，美国逆回购市场并不那么受关注，但最近几个月来，却频频登上新闻头条，成为美国史无前例大放水之后，流动性过剩的一个缩影。\n无处安放的资金\n据纽约联储公布的数据，美东时间6月30日周三，美联储的隔夜逆回购用量史上首次逼近1万亿美元，共有90名对手方在美联储的隔夜固定利率逆回购工具中存放了9919亿美元。\n\n在迈向1万亿美元的关键心理整数位的同时，这也是该数字连续10个交易日超过7000亿美元、连续三个交易日超过8000亿美元。当日90名交易对手的数量也创下2016年以来最多。\n与中国央行的公开市场操作相反，美联储通过正回购释放流动性、逆回购回收流动性。隔夜逆回购具有回笼流动性的功能，货币市场基金和银行等合格交易对手方将现金存入美联储，进而换取美国国债等高质量抵押品。\n华尔街见闻此前提及，逆回购余额的大幅飙升反映的是美国金融市场美元流动性过剩的现状，换句话说，隔夜逆回购是流动性过剩时期的市场资金庇护所：\n\n 当流动性过剩时，为追求安全资产，市场资金往往会选择购买美国国债，当大量资金购买美债时，美债收益率会不断下行，甚至可能跌入负利率区间。此时，隔夜逆回购协议就成为市场资金的安全庇护所，因为隔夜逆回购利率充当着美联储利率走廊下限的作用，由于美联储并不希望落入负利率，因此即便在疫情后0利率的环境下，隔夜逆回购利率水平也在0%。\n\n此前，隔夜逆回购工具的利率ON RRP尽管只有零，仍然吸引了大批资金。这代表追逐短期收益率的资金根本无处可去，只能无息放入美联储。\n两周前的6月16日，美联储FOMC宣布将作为联邦基金利率区间上限的超额准备金利率（IOER）和下限的隔夜逆回购利率（ON RRP）都上调5个基点，ON RRP提升至0.05%。\n随后，美联储逆回购工具的用量进一步暴增。\n一场资金大轮换\nPozsar一直在密切关注着逆回购市场的动向。\n他目前每周至少发布两期《全球货币快报》(Global Money Dispatch)，这已经成为许多交易员、投行家和政策制定者的必读报告。\nPozsar在近期的快报中表示，美联储的货币宽松政策扭曲了投资者的动机，超低利率和央行债券购买使10年期美国国债的收益率一直徘徊在1.5%左右，低于通胀率：\n\n 金融公司愿意接受美联储微不足道的利率，是因为美联储的大规模刺激计划给他们带来了大量资金，这些资金把利率压低到了非常低的水平，几乎没有其他地方可以放。\n\n他认为，这可能最终意味着，存放于短期国债的银行存款和准备金将通过逆回购工具，回流到美联储，这种转变可能会在不寻常的地方引发意外的波动。\nPozsa表示：“我们正在讨论一场大规模的轮换，大量资金将从短期国债流向逆回购工具。”\n在Pozsar看来，逆回购利率提高后，应该会削弱货币市场基金和外国央行对短期美国国债的需求。这些存款和银行的准备金最终将流入美联储，这一过程被他称为“冲销”。\n\n但他不认为短期收益率会出现大幅上升。他预计，随着资金管理公司允许短期美国国债到期，资金储备将逐渐从银行流向逆回购工具。他表示，华尔街对这一转变的漫不经心态度低估了其不确定的后果，其中可能包括意外的波动。\nPozsar预计，随着货币基金等金融机构持有的短期美债在8月底到期，将有高达1.3万亿美元的资金进一步涌入逆回购工具：\n\n 截至5月31日，大型货币基金持有将近1万亿美元的短债，这些货币基金持有的短债券将在8月31日到期——在很短的时间内，这是一个很大的数目。此外，这还不包括较小规模货币基金持有的3000亿美元短债。也就是说，到8月底，我们将看到1.3万亿美元的资金从短债流入逆回购！\n \n\n关不上的水龙头\n持续泛滥的流动性令不少分析师感到不安。\n据华尔街日报，摩根大通利率衍生品策略主管Joshua Younger指出，逆回购工具中的过剩现金可能预示着未来的麻烦：\n\n 令人担忧的是，这只是冰山一角，我们无法看到其他部分。最终回到该设施的资金越多，总体过剩资金就越大，这些过剩资金被用于破坏稳定的方式的风险也就越大。\n\n但也有分析师比较乐观， 他们认为，流入美联储这一工具的数千亿美元表明，过剩现金没有流入GameStop或比特币等更具投机性的押注中，货币在美联储之间来回流动，通过金融系统再回到央行，没有什么坏处。\nTwenty-Four Asset Management的投资组合经理Gordon Shannon表示，随着资金的转移，所涉及的巨额美元可能会引发暂时的波动，但“逆回购使用的进一步增长不一定是一个危险的迹象。”\n但Pozsar感到担忧。\n短期来看，大量资金从美国短期国债中撤离或许并不会造成严重后果。美国债务上限将在7月底生效，这给财政部带来压力，减少短债发行。由于预期国债供应将出现短缺，短期投资者热衷于抢购这些国债。\n但美联储持续的量化宽松还在向市场注入流动性。Pozsar预计，未来两个月将有2500亿美元资金通过QE涌入市场，使得需要被吸收的资金规模达到4000亿美元。\nPozsar表示，“冲销”掉4000亿美元是一笔不小的数目，随着银行重组资产负债表，这可能导致市场出现异常。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SH":0.9,"BND":0.9,"TLT":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"IEI":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"QID":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"GOVT":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SHY":0.9,"IEF":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3115,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150545637,"gmtCreate":1624923043529,"gmtModify":1703847836204,"author":{"id":"3566969517736877","authorId":"3566969517736877","name":"EricBong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fde094766f7e452651736b62882d9cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566969517736877","idStr":"3566969517736877"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okoklah","listText":"Okoklah","text":"Okoklah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/150545637","repostId":"1186578125","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186578125","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624879503,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1186578125?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-28 19:25","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Dalio's latest speech: Stocks aren't necessarily in a bubble right now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186578125","media":"人民币交易与研究","summary":"全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达里奥6月24日连发两篇推文，介绍自己衡量泡沫的六项指标，并发布了一个10分钟的视频阐述自己对当下股市泡沫的看法。\n在这个应罗宾汉基金会要求解释股票泡沫的视频中，达里奥表示，","content":"<p>Dario, founder of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, sent two tweets on June 24th, introducing his six indicators to measure bubbles, and released a 10-minute video to explain his views on the current stock market bubble.</p><p>In this video explaining the equity bubble at the request of the Robin Hood Foundation, Dalio said that while indicators show that some stocks are \"bubbling\" right now, the stock market is not necessarily in a bubble right now.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed46d81d71867f2d1eb8b3b9ad012779\" tg-width=\"532\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>\"By bubble, I mean unsustainably high prices, and I measure it with six metrics,\" Dalio wrote in a tweet, noting that investors need to watch for signs such as buyer leverage levels and the number of new buyers.</p><p>In fact, as early as mid-May, Dario shared his research on stock market bubbles in WeChat official account, detailing these six systematic \"bubble indicators\", including price, bullish sentiment, leverage, etc.:</p><p>1. How high is the price relative to traditional measurement standards?</p><p>2. Do prices reflect unsustainable conditions?</p><p>3. How many new buyers (i.e. people who were not in the market before) have entered the market?</p><p>4. How common is bullish sentiment?</p><p>5. Does trading rely on the support of high leverage?</p><p>6. Do buyers excessively engage in forward transactions (such as building inventory, entering into forward agreements, etc.) to speculate or protect themselves from future price increases?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b89447f632ae50e578dd9ebcd007795e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Here is the full text of this video speech, titled \"Is the stock market in a bubble right now?\":</p><p>Hello everyone, it's a pleasure to be here on behalf of all those who have been helped by Robin Hood (Foundation).</p><p>You know, knowing Robin Hood, because I knew Paul Tudor Jones, when Robin Hood was a glimmer in his eye, he would play basketball with the kids in the Bedford-Stuy neighborhood (Bed Stuy), and I was fortunate to be able to see him and all the staff at the Robin Hood Fund, in a very personal and efficient way to help alleviate poverty in America, and to be a part of it. Everything you guys have done is wonderful, so I just want to thank you for what you have done, and to tell you how happy I am to be here and do my small part.</p><p>I was asked to talk about bubbles, whether the market, the stock market is in a bubble, and what kind of bubble. I just wanted to give you some thoughts on the subject, I only have about 10 minutes. So I want to talk quickly, a few years ago, I started thinking: What is a bubble? When we are in a bubble, what do I mean by bubble? Because in my 50 years of investing, I've seen a lot of bubbles.</p><p>There are six things in my mind that I basically think will lead to bubbles, and I'll list them all. Now, look at them so that you know what I'm talking about.</p><p>First of all, you know, how high our prices are relative to traditional price measures is a consideration. For example, you know our PSI or yield and stuff like that, that's a consideration, but that's not what I call a bubble.</p><p>For example, there may be high prices and low returns, and this can be the case for a long time, but that doesn't mean that the bubble will burst, it's just one component.</p><p>Second, price is a reflection of unsustainable conditions, here referring to the nature of the buyer, who is buying and how to buy, unsustainable conditions will produce a price correction or decline, and then there is a third speculative factor-new buyers in the market are attracted.</p><p>You know, it's like a cocktail party where some people who never attend show up, which is invested in certain assets, it could be tech stocks, it could be real estate, but anyway, everybody thinks, not holding that stuff makes them feel stupid, and all that stuff.</p><p>The fifth item is to buy forward \"contracts\" for large sums, such as someone buying an apartment they don't know about because they think it will go up, or using the age of large-scale commodity trading as an example. I would look at people who use commodities and they buy a lot of forward contracts. In other words, buy inventory to protect yourself from rising prices.</p><p>So when they leave the market – as we've seen recently in commodity markets – when they dump forward contracts and the price keeps falling, they'll say \"I don't want it either\".</p><p>And when the price goes up, they will say that we want premium protection to hedge against the price increase. So, the buyers who extend these forward purchases are a (bubble) indicator.</p><p>I use this table to show the entire stock market, and I apply this framework to basically all assets, and I use a systematic approach to try to determine which ones are in a bubble. In my opinion, among the wide variety of stocks, some have bubbles and some don't, and the entire stock market is just as this chart shows.</p><p>This chart dates back to 1910, and it is an indicator of the extent of the bubble. You can see that there is a bubble at present, but it is not as high as in 2000 and 1929, but higher than in 2007.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4f2ff86c22e19d1a051e96d120c0fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Let's look at stocks that have bubbles, and by those criteria, a lot of them don't have bubbles.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ebf9f9bfdd5c982106b5c4f97acf635\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This chart goes back to 1995. Compared to 2000, the share of the top 1,000 companies with bubbles in market capitalization is about 5%, and the share of the entire S&P 500 index with bubbles is about 2%, which is not as high as in 2000, but higher than in 2007.</p><p>Now on to the next chart showing bubble stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15720e9f5f0240be2ddeda3d14230eaa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>I separate these bubble stocks from the S&P 500 and can see a decline in the proportion of bubble stocks in the broader market, which I believe is likely to continue, but is currently in a bubble. One of the problems is that bubbles can expand and contract, and timing is a big question.</p><p>The following chart dates back to 1900. The upper chart shows the ratio of debt to gross domestic product (GDP). The blue line in the lower chart shows interest rates, and the red line shows the size of money printed, that is, the amount of money flowing in. So you can see when debt accumulates, as is the case now, and near-zero interest rates are implemented, when both scenarios exist at the same time, there is a big printing of money.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5d3d3c839ca42009c377a3eed7c9c3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>That's a key element of the bubble because there's a lot of liquidity coming into the market and then there's a lot of money gouging up all kinds of asset prices, so you can see that when the blue line hits zero, the red line goes up significantly. A lot of liquidity, a lot of debt financing and debt monetization created a typical bubble.</p><p>Other factors that can create a bubble are new stock listings, especially if they are not profitable or, in many cases, have no prospect of making a profit.</p><p>These are also bubble considerations, so I would say that you can't say that the current stock market is at the highest degree of bubble, you have to distinguish which stocks are in a bubble, or have been in a bubble; Which stocks aren't, there are actually many stocks currently that aren't in a bubble.</p><p>So I hope this gives you some insight into the bubbles, how I see them and where we are at the moment. Thanks.</p>","source":"lsy1574157197600","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dalio's latest speech: Stocks aren't necessarily in a bubble right now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDalio's latest speech: Stocks aren't necessarily in a bubble right now\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">人民币交易与研究</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 19:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Dario, founder of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, sent two tweets on June 24th, introducing his six indicators to measure bubbles, and released a 10-minute video to explain his views on the current stock market bubble.</p><p>In this video explaining the equity bubble at the request of the Robin Hood Foundation, Dalio said that while indicators show that some stocks are \"bubbling\" right now, the stock market is not necessarily in a bubble right now.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed46d81d71867f2d1eb8b3b9ad012779\" tg-width=\"532\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>\"By bubble, I mean unsustainably high prices, and I measure it with six metrics,\" Dalio wrote in a tweet, noting that investors need to watch for signs such as buyer leverage levels and the number of new buyers.</p><p>In fact, as early as mid-May, Dario shared his research on stock market bubbles in WeChat official account, detailing these six systematic \"bubble indicators\", including price, bullish sentiment, leverage, etc.:</p><p>1. How high is the price relative to traditional measurement standards?</p><p>2. Do prices reflect unsustainable conditions?</p><p>3. How many new buyers (i.e. people who were not in the market before) have entered the market?</p><p>4. How common is bullish sentiment?</p><p>5. Does trading rely on the support of high leverage?</p><p>6. Do buyers excessively engage in forward transactions (such as building inventory, entering into forward agreements, etc.) to speculate or protect themselves from future price increases?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b89447f632ae50e578dd9ebcd007795e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Here is the full text of this video speech, titled \"Is the stock market in a bubble right now?\":</p><p>Hello everyone, it's a pleasure to be here on behalf of all those who have been helped by Robin Hood (Foundation).</p><p>You know, knowing Robin Hood, because I knew Paul Tudor Jones, when Robin Hood was a glimmer in his eye, he would play basketball with the kids in the Bedford-Stuy neighborhood (Bed Stuy), and I was fortunate to be able to see him and all the staff at the Robin Hood Fund, in a very personal and efficient way to help alleviate poverty in America, and to be a part of it. Everything you guys have done is wonderful, so I just want to thank you for what you have done, and to tell you how happy I am to be here and do my small part.</p><p>I was asked to talk about bubbles, whether the market, the stock market is in a bubble, and what kind of bubble. I just wanted to give you some thoughts on the subject, I only have about 10 minutes. So I want to talk quickly, a few years ago, I started thinking: What is a bubble? When we are in a bubble, what do I mean by bubble? Because in my 50 years of investing, I've seen a lot of bubbles.</p><p>There are six things in my mind that I basically think will lead to bubbles, and I'll list them all. Now, look at them so that you know what I'm talking about.</p><p>First of all, you know, how high our prices are relative to traditional price measures is a consideration. For example, you know our PSI or yield and stuff like that, that's a consideration, but that's not what I call a bubble.</p><p>For example, there may be high prices and low returns, and this can be the case for a long time, but that doesn't mean that the bubble will burst, it's just one component.</p><p>Second, price is a reflection of unsustainable conditions, here referring to the nature of the buyer, who is buying and how to buy, unsustainable conditions will produce a price correction or decline, and then there is a third speculative factor-new buyers in the market are attracted.</p><p>You know, it's like a cocktail party where some people who never attend show up, which is invested in certain assets, it could be tech stocks, it could be real estate, but anyway, everybody thinks, not holding that stuff makes them feel stupid, and all that stuff.</p><p>The fifth item is to buy forward \"contracts\" for large sums, such as someone buying an apartment they don't know about because they think it will go up, or using the age of large-scale commodity trading as an example. I would look at people who use commodities and they buy a lot of forward contracts. In other words, buy inventory to protect yourself from rising prices.</p><p>So when they leave the market – as we've seen recently in commodity markets – when they dump forward contracts and the price keeps falling, they'll say \"I don't want it either\".</p><p>And when the price goes up, they will say that we want premium protection to hedge against the price increase. So, the buyers who extend these forward purchases are a (bubble) indicator.</p><p>I use this table to show the entire stock market, and I apply this framework to basically all assets, and I use a systematic approach to try to determine which ones are in a bubble. In my opinion, among the wide variety of stocks, some have bubbles and some don't, and the entire stock market is just as this chart shows.</p><p>This chart dates back to 1910, and it is an indicator of the extent of the bubble. You can see that there is a bubble at present, but it is not as high as in 2000 and 1929, but higher than in 2007.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4f2ff86c22e19d1a051e96d120c0fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Let's look at stocks that have bubbles, and by those criteria, a lot of them don't have bubbles.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ebf9f9bfdd5c982106b5c4f97acf635\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This chart goes back to 1995. Compared to 2000, the share of the top 1,000 companies with bubbles in market capitalization is about 5%, and the share of the entire S&P 500 index with bubbles is about 2%, which is not as high as in 2000, but higher than in 2007.</p><p>Now on to the next chart showing bubble stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15720e9f5f0240be2ddeda3d14230eaa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>I separate these bubble stocks from the S&P 500 and can see a decline in the proportion of bubble stocks in the broader market, which I believe is likely to continue, but is currently in a bubble. One of the problems is that bubbles can expand and contract, and timing is a big question.</p><p>The following chart dates back to 1900. The upper chart shows the ratio of debt to gross domestic product (GDP). The blue line in the lower chart shows interest rates, and the red line shows the size of money printed, that is, the amount of money flowing in. So you can see when debt accumulates, as is the case now, and near-zero interest rates are implemented, when both scenarios exist at the same time, there is a big printing of money.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5d3d3c839ca42009c377a3eed7c9c3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>That's a key element of the bubble because there's a lot of liquidity coming into the market and then there's a lot of money gouging up all kinds of asset prices, so you can see that when the blue line hits zero, the red line goes up significantly. A lot of liquidity, a lot of debt financing and debt monetization created a typical bubble.</p><p>Other factors that can create a bubble are new stock listings, especially if they are not profitable or, in many cases, have no prospect of making a profit.</p><p>These are also bubble considerations, so I would say that you can't say that the current stock market is at the highest degree of bubble, you have to distinguish which stocks are in a bubble, or have been in a bubble; Which stocks aren't, there are actually many stocks currently that aren't in a bubble.</p><p>So I hope this gives you some insight into the bubbles, how I see them and where we are at the moment. Thanks.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lv14Xv-iB491-ddK3pdX_w\">人民币交易与研究</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61ac6f61084482a9c0c70291c78e92f5","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lv14Xv-iB491-ddK3pdX_w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186578125","content_text":"全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达里奥6月24日连发两篇推文，介绍自己衡量泡沫的六项指标，并发布了一个10分钟的视频阐述自己对当下股市泡沫的看法。\n在这个应罗宾汉基金会要求解释股票泡沫的视频中，达里奥表示，虽然指标显示一些股票目前“存在泡沫”，但股市眼下不一定处于泡沫中。\n\n达里奥在推文中写道，“我所说的泡沫是指不可持续的高价，我用六项指标来衡量它”，并指出投资者需关注买家杠杆水平和新买家数量等迹象。\n事实上，早在5月中旬时，达里奥就曾在公众号分享了他对股市泡沫的研究，详述了这六种系统性“泡沫指标”，包括价格、看涨情绪、杠杆高低等：\n1． 相对传统的衡量标准，价格有多高？\n2． 价格是否反映了不可持续的状况？\n3． 有多少新买家（即之前不在市场里的人）进入了市场？\n4． 看涨情绪有多普遍？\n5． 交易是否依赖高杠杆的支撑？\n6． 买家是否过度进行远期交易（如建立库存、签订远期协议等）来投机或保护自己免受未来价格上涨的影响？\n\n以下是这个名为《股市目前是否处于泡沫中？》的视频演讲全文：\n大家好，很高兴能代表所有被罗宾汉（基金会）帮助过的人来到这里。\n你们知道，知道罗宾汉，是因为我认识保罗·都铎·琼斯，当时罗宾汉是他眼里的一抹微光，他会在贝德福德-斯图文森特街区（Bed Stuy）和孩子们一起打篮球，我很幸运能够看到他和罗宾汉基金的所有工作人员，以一种非常个人化和高效的方式来帮助减轻美国的贫困，并且能够成为其中的一员。你们所做的一切都很棒，所以我只想感谢你们所做的一切，并且告诉你们能够来到这里并尽我的微薄之力，我有多么高兴。\n我被要求谈论泡沫，市场、股市是否处于泡沫中，以及什么样的泡沫。我只想给你们一些关于这个问题的想法，我只有大约10分钟的时间。所以我想讲快点，几年前，我开始思考：什么是泡沫？当我们身处泡沫中时，我所说的泡沫是指什么？因为在我50年的投资生涯中，我看到了很多泡沫。\n在我脑海中，有六件事是我基本上认为会导致产生泡沫的，我将他们一一列举出来。现在，看着它们，以便您知道我在说什么。\n首先，您知道，我们的价格相对于传统的价格衡量标准有多高是一个考虑因素。例如，你知道我们的PSI或收益率之类的东西，这是一个考虑因素，但这不是我所说的泡沫。\n比方说，可能出现价格高回报低的现象，而且这种情况可以持续很长时间，但这并不意味着泡沫会破灭，只是其中一个组成因素。\n第二，价格是反映不可持续的条件，这里指的是买方的性质，谁在买入和如何买入，不可持续的条件会产生了价格调整或下跌，然后就出现了第三个投机因素——市场上的新买家被吸引了。\n您知道，这就像鸡尾酒会，有些从不参加的人出现了，也就是投资了某些资产，可能是科技股，也可能是房地产，但无论如何，每个人都想，没有持有这些东西会让他们觉得自己很蠢，诸如此类。\n第五项是大额购买远期“合约”，比如有人买了他们不了解的公寓，因为他们认为公寓会上涨，或者用大规模交易大宗商品的年代来举例。我会观察那些使用大宗商品的人，他们购买了大量远期合约。换句话说，购买库存以保护自己免受价格上涨的影响。\n所以当他们离场的时候——正如我们最近在大宗商品市场看到的——当他们抛售远期合约时，价格持续下跌，他们会说“我也不想要它”。\n而当价格上涨时，他们会说我们要进行溢价保护，对冲价格上涨。所以，延长了这些远期购买的买家是一个（泡沫）指标。\n我用这张表显示整个股市，我把这个框架基本上应用到所有资产上，并且使用一种系统化的方法，试图判断哪些处在泡沫中。在我看来，在各种各样的股票中，有些存在泡沫，有些则没有，而整个股市正如这张图表所显示的。\n这张图表可以追溯到1910年，它是一个彰显泡沫程度的指标。你可以看到当前是有泡沫的，但没有2000年和1929年那么高，不过高于2007年。\n\n让我们看看存在泡沫的股票，根据这些标准，很多股票没有泡沫。\n\n这张图表追溯到1995年，与2000年相比，前1000名的企业市值存在泡沫比例约为5%，整个标普500指数存在泡沫的份额约为2%，虽然不如2000年高，但比2007年高。\n现在来看下一张显示了泡沫股票的图表。\n\n我把这些泡沫股票与标准普尔500指数分离，可以看到泡沫股在大盘中的比例下降，我相信这种情况很可能会持续下去，但目前处于泡沫之中。其中一个问题是，泡沫可以扩张和收缩，时机是个大问题。\n下面这张图表可以追溯到1900年，上图显示的是债务与国内生产总值（GDP）之比，下图中蓝线显示的是利率，红线显示印钞规模，也就是流入的货币量。所以你可以看到当债务累加时，就像现在的情况，并且实施近零利率，这两种情况同时存在时就会大肆印钞。\n\n这是泡沫的一个关键因素，因为有大量的流动性进入市场，然后有很多资金哄抬各种各样的资产价格，所以你可以看到，当蓝线触及零时，红线大幅上行。大量流动性，大量的债务融资和债务货币化形成了一个典型的泡沫。\n其他可能产生泡沫的因素则是新股上市，特别是如果它们没有盈利，或者是在许多情况下没有盈利的前景。\n这些也是泡沫的考虑因素，所以我想说，你不能说当前的股市处于最高程度的泡沫，你必须区分哪些股票正处于泡沫中、或者一直处于泡沫中；哪些股票没有，实际上目前有许多股票并没有处于泡沫中。\n所以我希望这能让你对泡沫有所了解、我如何看待它们以及我们目前处于什么位置。谢谢。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2925,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}