To The Moon

I have benefited greatly from being a part of some (international) communities. This was shared by (Facebook user) Bohdan Vorona. This is a quick analysis of TSMC by longtermpick.com. He started with company background info and presented the competition (for cross reference of valuation like P/E, P/S, P/CF ratios). Qualitative strengths and risks were identified with some key ratios. The next was to do a valuation of the company using base, bull and bear cases. While I have mixed thoughts towards (future) valuation, the above example lists the various assumptions in place. These include a 30% margin of safety and a discount rate of 12% based on a 5-year projection (which I prefer over 10 years). He has worked out a 30% Margin of Safety price of $160.02, $196.38 and $123.65 for the respecti

$Alibaba(BABA)$ bought 111,950 ADRs on Thursday and 113,950 ADRs on Friday accounting for 1.1% and 1% of the ADR volume. For all Alibaba stockholders, this buy back is good news. thanks, X user Brendan Ahern.

My Investing Muse (16Dec24) Layoffs & Closure news Evonik aims to spin off assets and could shed 7,000 jobs - Reuters Another low-cost airline filed for Chapter 11. GOL announced on Dec. 10 that it filed a reorganization plan that promises to convert $1.7 billion of debt into equity and raise $1.85 billion of new financing through new investors. - The Street Luxury Brands Face A Retail Labor Crisis As 51% Of Employees Plan To Leave Their Jobs - Forbes Cruise, SF's embattled self-driving car company, is finally folding after $10B in losses - SF Gate Supply Chain News In 2025 the deliveries of new vessels will again raise the capacity oversupply, said Braemar, “even allowing for Red Sea avoidance, oversupply is expected to increase from 3-4% in 2024 to 7-8% in 2025,” said the broker. - S

News and my thoughts from last week (16Dec24) US BANK DEPOSITS FELL TO $17.839 TLN FROM $17.906 TLN IN PRIOR WEEK. Image The US budget deficit spiked by a massive $367 billion in November 2024. This was $14 billion above the median expectation of $353 billion. For the first 2 months of the Fiscal Year 2025, the total deficit now stands at $624 BILLION, the highest on record. This is up a staggering 64% from the $380 billion seen last year and above 2020 pandemic levels. To put this into perspective, the budget gap was 3 TIMES lower on average during the 2013-2017 period. The debt crisis is worsening. - X user The Kobeissi Letter Entitlement can bend reality The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to 6.67% from 6.69% Applications to refinance a home loan surged 2

Market Outlook of S&P500 - 16Dec24 Observations: The MACD indicator is showing a downtrend. Moving Averages (MA). Both the MA50 line and the MA200 line are on an uptrend. Both MA50 and MA200 lines are below the last candle. Thus, it could be read as bullish for both the mid and the long-term. The 3 Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are on an uptrend but are looking to converge (implying a potential change in trend). Chaikin’s Monetary flow (CMF) shows an uptrend. However, there seems to be more selling momentum than buying. This can lead to a potential trend change. The 20 indicators are pointing to a “Strong Buy” rating for the S&P500 (for Daily interval). 16 indicators recommend a “Buy” and 4 recommend a “Sell” rating. From the candlestick pattern, the latest seems to point

Earnings Calendar (16Dec24) There are a few notable earnings in the coming week namely Nike, Micron, Accenture and Jabil. Let us look into Jabil The price slipped -0.7% from a year ago. The P/E ratio is 11.9. Technical Analysts recommend the rating of “Strong Buy” for the stock. Analysts Sentiment recommends a “Buy” rating. The target price is $147.25 which implies an upside of over 8.97%. Observations about Jabil: Revenue grew from $17.8B (2015) to $28.8B (2024) Operating profit grew from $0.588B (2015) to $1.43B (2024) EPS grew from $1.45 (2015) to $11.17 (2024) FCF (10-year median margin) is 1.7% Jabil’s forecasted EPS and Revenue are $1.88 and $6.61B respectively. For now, I prefer to monitor Jabil’s performance as a spectator and not an investor.

Public Holidays There will be no public holidays in Singapore, Hong Kong, The USA or China in the coming week. Economic Calendar (16Dec24) Notable Highlights FOMC interest rate decision will be the most watched news in the coming week. The market expects an interest rate cut. A contrary decision is likely to cause some market volatility. The core PCE Price Index will be the next most watched indicator for inflation. This is the preferred reference that the Federal Reserve uses for inflation. Surprises in this can lead to market volatility. S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI reflects the growth or contraction of the manufacturing sector. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index shows the development of the manufacturing sectors in Philadelphia. S&P Global US Se

Public Holidays There will be no public holidays in Singapore, Hong Kong, The USA or China in the coming week. Economic Calendar (16Dec24) Notable Highlights FOMC interest rate decision will be the most watched news in the coming week. The market expects an interest rate cut. A contrary decision is likely to cause some market volatility. The core PCE Price Index will be the next most watched indicator for inflation. This is the preferred reference that the Federal Reserve uses for inflation. Surprises in this can lead to market volatility. S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI reflects the growth or contraction of the manufacturing sector. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index shows the development of the manufacturing sectors in Philadelphia. S&P Global US Services PMI reflects the g

How to qualify a business? Here's a framework for evaluating a company's financial performance: Income Statement Revenue (or Sales): Evaluation: Look for trends in revenue growth or decline over time. Consistent growth can indicate market demand and business expansion, while erratic or declining revenue might signal market or operational issues. Metric: Year-over-year growth rate. Gross Margin (Gross Profit / Revenue): Evaluation: This shows how much money is left after covering the cost of goods sold (COGS). A stable or increasing gross margin suggests good cost control or pricing power. Metric: Percentage change in gross margin. Net Income: Evaluation: The bottom line shows overall profitability. It's important to understand what drives changes in net income, whether it's operational eff

congrats to my fellow tiger authors. thank you for your invaluable contributions. congrats to all.