(Part 4 of 4) - my investing muse - Layoffs, how else to value S&P500?
My Investing Muse Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies Oracle is considering slashing up to 30,000 jobs as the company struggles with the cost of its AI build-out. - X user Markets & Mayhem Peloton looks to cut about 11% of its workforce. - Bloomberg US layoffs have surged to recessionary levels: US employers announced 1,206,374 job cuts in 2025, up +58% YoY, the highest since the 2020 Crisis. Excluding 2020, this was the worst year since the 2008 Financial Crisis. - X user Global Markets Investor Chemical maker Dow is cutting 4,500 jobs and will rely on AI. - X user MacroEdge My Final Thoughts Here is the S&P 500 denominated in gold (i.e., the S&P 500 to Gold Ratio), which shows how many ounces of gold are equivalent to the S&P 500 index level at month-end closes (or closes
(Part 3 of 4) -News and my thoughts from the past week (02Feb2026) > Ray Dalio Big Cycle, OpenAI, more
News and my thoughts from the past week (02Feb2026) Several explosions were reported just now in Tehran and other cities in Iran. - X user Jesse Cohen The U.S. Senate passes a bill to fund the government, averting an imminent shutdown. The legislation now moves to the House. Seems like the Government shutdown is over (for now). - X user Conflict Alarm Ray Dalio just said the quiet part out loud. "If you depreciate the money, it makes everything look like it's going up." The Stock Market boom is a lie. We are witnessing the death of the Dollar, not the growth of the economy. 99% of people have no idea. - X user Bark 26.4% of US federal debt is maturing within 12 months, near the highest % in 26 years, according to Tavi Costa's analysis. This is about $10 TRILLION of debt. - X user Global Ma
(Part 2 of 4) - Market outlook of S&P500 (02Feb2026)
Market Outlook of S&P500 (02Feb2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has completed a top crossover, which implies a bearish outlook. Moving Averages The price action, as depicted by the candlesticks, is currently situated above both the 50-day and 200-day moving average (MA) lines. This positioning indicates a bullish trend in both the short-term and long-term outlooks. Furthermore, both the 50 MA and the 200 MA are trending upward, reinforcing the positive trend. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines have yet to converge. We can expect a change from the current bullish trend after the 3 lines have completed their overlap. Currently, EMA is suggesting a more bullish outl
(Part 1 of 4) - Economic & Earnings Calendar - Opportunity in BNPL with AFRM? (02Feb2026)
Economic Preview: Key Data Releases for January 2026 (week of 02Feb2026) Consumer Price Index (CPI) Update The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is scheduled for release in the coming week. Previously, the year-on-year CPI was reported at 2.7%. This data is significant as it provides insight into the current inflation rate, a critical economic indicator. Market volatility is expected around the release, given CPI’s role in reflecting inflation trends. Controlling inflation remains a central focus for the Federal Government, which has set a target rate of 2%. Existing Home Sales for January Another important economic indicator to be released is the existing home sales data for January. The previous report showed a figure of 4.35 million. The upcoming data will offer valuable insight into the
(Full article) Preview of the week starting 02Feb2026
Economic Preview: Key Data Releases for January 2026 (week of 02Feb2026) Consumer Price Index (CPI) Update The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is scheduled for release in the coming week. Previously, the year-on-year CPI was reported at 2.7%. This data is significant as it provides insight into the current inflation rate, a critical economic indicator. Market volatility is expected around the release, given CPI’s role in reflecting inflation trends. Controlling inflation remains a central focus for the Federal Government, which has set a target rate of 2%. Existing Home Sales for January Another important economic indicator to be released is the existing home sales data for January. The previous report showed a figure of 4.35 million. The upcoming data will offer valuable insight into the
Here is the S&P 500 denominated in gold (i.e., the S&P 500 to Gold Ratio), which shows how many ounces of gold are equivalent to the S&P 500 index level at month-end closes (or closest available data). This is calculated as S&P 500 index ÷ gold price per ounce (USD).Current/latest (as of late January 2026, around January 25–28): Approximately 1.32–1.37 ounces of gold (sources like Longtermtrends report 1.32 on Jan 25 with S&P ~6,979 and gold ~$5,282; slight variations exist due to exact daily closes). The ratio has trended downward over the last 6 months, reflecting gold's strong outperformance (gold surged significantly while the S&P 500 showed more modest/net flat changes in relative terms). At end of July 2925, this index is 1.90 when S&P500 stood
Latest Meta earnings $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ from X user Economyapp Meta Q4 FY25: 👨👩👧👦 Daily active people +7% Y/Y to 3.58B. 👀 Ad impressions +18% Y/Y. • Revenue +24% Y/Y to $59.9B ($1.4B beat). • EPS $8.88 ($0.66 beat). • FY26 Capex $115-135B (vs. $72B in FY25). Is Meta going for $800?
Tesla earnings summary by X user Economyapp Tesla Q4 FY25: • Revenue -3% Y/Y to $24.9B ($0.1B beat). • Gross margin 20% (+4pp Y/Y). • Operating margin 6% (flat Y/Y). • Capex -14% Y/Y to $2.4B. • Free cash flow -30% Y/Y to $1.4B. • Non-GAAP EPS $0.50 ($0.05 beat). Tesla stocks was soaring after the latest earnings.
Microsoft Q2 FY26 earnings (Dec. quarter): ☁️ Azure +38% fx neutral. • Revenue +17% Y/Y to $81.3B ($1.0B beat). • Gross margin 68% (-1pp Y/Y) • Operating margin 47% (+2pp Y/Y). • Non-GAAP EPS $4.14 ($0.22 beat). • $10B gains from investments in OpenAI. Data and earnings chart are from X user economyapp. The stock fell since earnings was announced. Expect some volatility.