To The Moon
Home
News
TigerAI
Log In
Sign Up
赤耳三皮
+Follow
Posts · 114
Posts · 114
Following · 0
Following · 0
Followers · 0
Followers · 0
赤耳三皮
赤耳三皮
·
2022-04-02
Okie
Micro-loan network soared 70%, and the company expects its revenue to be 698 to 708 million yuan in 2021
预计2021年全年,未经审计的初步净亏损为11.44亿元至11.54亿元。
Micro-loan network soared 70%, and the company expects its revenue to be 698 to 708 million yuan in 2021
看
4.22K
回复
Comment
点赞
1
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
赤耳三皮
赤耳三皮
·
2022-01-03
Okie
Preview: The US non-farm payroll drama is unfolding! Hong Kong and US stocks open on Monday.
摘要:财经数据方面:中国财新制造业PMI、美国PMI、美国ADP就业数据、美国非农数据等事件方面:AMD 2022产品线上首发会、FOMC货币政策会议纪要、联储主席布拉德发表讲话等新股方面:环龙控股、
Preview: The US non-farm payroll drama is unfolding! Hong Kong and US stocks open on Monday.
看
4.72K
回复
Comment
点赞
2
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
赤耳三皮
赤耳三皮
·
2021-12-30
Ok
Sorry, this post has been deleted
看
4.71K
回复
Comment
点赞
2
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
赤耳三皮
赤耳三皮
·
2021-03-31
Okie
Sorry, this post has been deleted
看
3.81K
回复
Comment
点赞
Like
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
赤耳三皮
赤耳三皮
·
2021-03-28
Okie
Hong Hao: The Return of the King of Value is in Progress
概要成长型股票相对于价值型股票的空前强势直到2020年6月开始有所回落。在2020年11月底价值真正开始王者归来之时,市场几乎没有注意到成长型股票相对强势的逆转。这种建立在信贷扩张、线性外推的增长预期
Hong Hao: The Return of the King of Value is in Progress
看
3.93K
回复
Comment
点赞
1
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
赤耳三皮
赤耳三皮
·
2021-03-26
Okie
Reports indicate that Xiaohongshu has hired a CFO and is considering an IPO in the US.
中国科技企业走向公开市场的名单越来越长。最新为首次公开发行(ipo)打下基础的是类似Instagram的社交电子商务平台小红书。据知情人士透露,该公司最近聘请了一名首席财务官,并考虑最早于今年在美国上
Reports indicate that Xiaohongshu has hired a CFO and is considering an IPO in the US.
看
4.00K
回复
Comment
点赞
4
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
赤耳三皮
赤耳三皮
·
2021-03-24
okie
Sorry, this post has been deleted
看
5.27K
回复
Comment
点赞
2
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
赤耳三皮
赤耳三皮
·
2021-03-23
okie
Tencent Music's Q4 and full-year financial reports were strong, and its stock price once hit a new high in after-hours trading.
盘前,市场对腾讯音乐娱乐集团即将发布的财报普遍感到乐观,助推了腾讯音乐股价的强劲表现,其盘中股价一度上冲至31.12美元,创下上市以来的新高,并报收于30.89美元。在腾讯音乐公布财报后,其盘后股价一度涨超2.14%,并创下31.55美元的历史新高。其中环比净增长为430万,付费率达9%,高于第三季度的8%和2019年同期的6.2%。
Tencent Music's Q4 and full-year financial reports were strong, and its stock price once hit a new high in after-hours trading.
看
4.50K
回复
Comment
点赞
2
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
赤耳三皮
赤耳三皮
·
2021-03-22
Okie
Sorry, this post has been deleted
看
3.79K
回复
Comment
点赞
Like
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
赤耳三皮
赤耳三皮
·
2021-03-21
Okie
Zhang Yidong: Growth core assets are expected to make a triumphant comeback in the second half of the year.
后疫情时代,新型滞胀可能会成为常态,不同于70年代,现在体现为结构性资产泡沫。 我仍然坚定不移的看好港股,维持今年指数牛市的判断。A股或美股今年也不会出现大熊市,但更多以结构性行情为主。
Zhang Yidong: Growth core assets are expected to make a triumphant comeback in the second half of the year.
看
4.25K
回复
Comment
点赞
Like
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
Load more
No followers yet
Most Discussed
{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3576478109556405","uuid":"3576478109556405","gmtCreate":1613384886488,"gmtModify":1614926953771,"name":"赤耳三皮","pinyin":"cespchiersanpi","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":10,"headSize":369,"tweetSize":114,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-4","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Tiger Star","description":"Join the tiger community for 2000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.08.09","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-3","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"President Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $1,000,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"93.75%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-2","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Master Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 100","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"80.55%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":9011179175,"gmtCreate":1648848050573,"gmtModify":1676534408086,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okie ","listText":"Okie ","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9011179175","repostId":"1139458358","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139458358","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648826231,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1139458358?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-01 23:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Micro-loan network soared 70%, and the company expects its revenue to be 698 to 708 million yuan in 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139458358","media":"智通财经网","summary":"预计2021年全年,未经审计的初步净亏损为11.44亿元至11.54亿元。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>April 1 (Friday),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEI\">Micro loan network</a>The stock price is higher, and as of press time, the stock is up more than 70%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4368d937c8c52c46f173cacfeccc34f8\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Weidai.com preliminarily estimates that the unaudited preliminary revenue for the whole year of 2021 is expected to be between 698 million and 708 million yuan (the same below); The unaudited preliminary operating loss is expected to be between 744 million and 754 million yuan; It is estimated that for the full year of 2021, the unaudited preliminary net loss will be RMB1,144 million to RMB1,154 million; Preliminary unaudited cash and cash equivalents are expected to be between 225 million and 235 million yuan.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micro-loan network soared 70%, and the company expects its revenue to be 698 to 708 million yuan in 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicro-loan network soared 70%, and the company expects its revenue to be 698 to 708 million yuan in 2021\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-01 23:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>April 1 (Friday),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEI\">Micro loan network</a>The stock price is higher, and as of press time, the stock is up more than 70%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4368d937c8c52c46f173cacfeccc34f8\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Weidai.com preliminarily estimates that the unaudited preliminary revenue for the whole year of 2021 is expected to be between 698 million and 708 million yuan (the same below); The unaudited preliminary operating loss is expected to be between 744 million and 754 million yuan; It is estimated that for the full year of 2021, the unaudited preliminary net loss will be RMB1,144 million to RMB1,154 million; Preliminary unaudited cash and cash equivalents are expected to be between 225 million and 235 million yuan.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/695763.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ab89d977e495f0bfa031f9d1dca6c63","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/695763.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1139458358","content_text":"4月1日(周五),微贷网股价走高,截止发稿,该股涨超70%。微贷网初步预计,2021年全年,未经审计的初步收入预计在6.98亿至7.08亿元人民币(下同)之间;未经审计的初步运营亏损预计在7.44亿至7.54亿元之间;预计2021年全年,未经审计的初步净亏损为11.44亿元至11.54亿元;未经审计的初步现金和现金等价物预计在2.25亿至2.35亿元之间。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WEI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4216,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9001357896,"gmtCreate":1641175980914,"gmtModify":1676533579343,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okie ","listText":"Okie ","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001357896","repostId":"1122097379","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122097379","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1641167896,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122097379?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-03 07:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Preview: The US non-farm payroll drama is unfolding! Hong Kong and US stocks open on Monday.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122097379","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要:财经数据方面:中国财新制造业PMI、美国PMI、美国ADP就业数据、美国非农数据等事件方面:AMD 2022产品线上首发会、FOMC货币政策会议纪要、联储主席布拉德发表讲话等新股方面:环龙控股、","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract<b>:</b></p><p>Regarding financial data: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, US PMI, US ADP employment data, US non-farm payroll data, etc. Regarding events: AMD's 2022 online product launch event, FOMC monetary policy meeting minutes, Fed Chairman Bullard's speech, etc. Regarding new stocks: Huanlong Holdings, Deying Holdings, and Jinli Permanent Magnet subscriptions have ended.<b>Keywords for Monday, January 3rd: US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Hong Kong Stock Connect/Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect trading suspended, Hong Kong and US stocks open.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/778228eec5cc5864b127a25cfcd16f61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>On Monday, in terms of economic data,</b>Investors may wish to pay attention to<b>US Markit Manufacturing PMI</b>, and<b>Hong Kong, China Retail Sales Annual Rate</b>etc.<b>Pay close attention to the opening of Hong Kong and US stocks.</b></p><p><b>Regarding new stocks,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02260\">Huanlong Holdings</a>Subscriptions have ended.</p><p>In addition, due to the New Year's Day holiday, A-shares will be closed, and trading in Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect will be suspended.<b>。 Hong Kong and US stocks are trading normally.</b></p><p><b>Keywords for Tuesday, January 4th: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, AMD 2022 online product launch event</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b0ed2087a3a91258aa795829be5c3ac\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>On Tuesday, regarding financial data,</b>Investors should pay attention to<b>China Caixin Manufacturing PMI</b>, and<b>US ISM Manufacturing PMI</b>。</p><p>In addition,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">American Supermicro Corporation</a></b>The 2022 online product launch event will be held, where President and CEO Dr. Lisa Su will highlight innovations and solutions using the upcoming AMD Ryzen processor and AMD Radeon graphics card.</p><p><b>Keywords for Wednesday, January 5th: ADP employment data, API crude oil, EIA crude oil, Markit services PMI</b></p><p><b>Wednesday,</b>The United States will announce<b>Mini Non-Farm Payrolls ADP Employment Data</b>。 Meanwhile, investors can pay attention to the United<b>API crude oil inventories for the week</b>、<b>EIA Crude Oil Inventory</b>, and<b>US December Markit Services PMI Final Reading</b>etc.</p><p><b>In addition,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a></b>We will be participating in CES 2022, which will be held from January 5th to January 8th. Jeff Fisher, Senior Vice President of NVIDIA GeForce, and Ali Kani, Vice President of NVIDIA Automotive, will showcase new breakthroughs in accelerated computing in the design, simulation, gaming, and autonomous vehicles.</p><p><b>Keywords for Thursday, January 6th: US initial jobless claims, US ISM non-manufacturing PMI, Bullard</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c48f735ec55f74f49fc54a791575f8c\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>On Thursday, in terms of global financial data, China's Caixin Services PMI, US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 1, US November trade balance, and US November factory orders month-on-month rate were released.</b>Data will be released gradually.<b>。</b></p><p><b>Regarding financial events,</b>The Federal Reserve FOMC will announce<b>Minutes of Monetary Policy Meeting</b>。</p><p><b>Keywords for Friday, January 7th: US non-farm payrolls, US December unemployment rate</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32067221f0041d5df0bd72f63b76174d\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"605\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>On Friday, regarding global financial data,</b>The United States will announce<b>Seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll data for December</b>as well as<b>Unemployment rate in December.</b></p><p><b>Regarding financial events,</b>FOMC voting member and St. Louis Federal Reserve President Bullard delivered a speech on the U.S. economy and monetary policy.</p><p><b>Regarding new stocks,</b>Little Yellow Duck Parent<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02250\">Deying Holdings</a></b>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06680\">gold force permanent magnet</a>Subscriptions have ended.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Preview: The US non-farm payroll drama is unfolding! Hong Kong and US stocks open on Monday.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPreview: The US non-farm payroll drama is unfolding! Hong Kong and US stocks open on Monday.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-03 07:58</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract<b>:</b></p><p>Regarding financial data: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, US PMI, US ADP employment data, US non-farm payroll data, etc. Regarding events: AMD's 2022 online product launch event, FOMC monetary policy meeting minutes, Fed Chairman Bullard's speech, etc. Regarding new stocks: Huanlong Holdings, Deying Holdings, and Jinli Permanent Magnet subscriptions have ended.<b>Keywords for Monday, January 3rd: US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Hong Kong Stock Connect/Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect trading suspended, Hong Kong and US stocks open.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/778228eec5cc5864b127a25cfcd16f61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>On Monday, in terms of economic data,</b>Investors may wish to pay attention to<b>US Markit Manufacturing PMI</b>, and<b>Hong Kong, China Retail Sales Annual Rate</b>etc.<b>Pay close attention to the opening of Hong Kong and US stocks.</b></p><p><b>Regarding new stocks,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02260\">Huanlong Holdings</a>Subscriptions have ended.</p><p>In addition, due to the New Year's Day holiday, A-shares will be closed, and trading in Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect will be suspended.<b>。 Hong Kong and US stocks are trading normally.</b></p><p><b>Keywords for Tuesday, January 4th: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, AMD 2022 online product launch event</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b0ed2087a3a91258aa795829be5c3ac\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>On Tuesday, regarding financial data,</b>Investors should pay attention to<b>China Caixin Manufacturing PMI</b>, and<b>US ISM Manufacturing PMI</b>。</p><p>In addition,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">American Supermicro Corporation</a></b>The 2022 online product launch event will be held, where President and CEO Dr. Lisa Su will highlight innovations and solutions using the upcoming AMD Ryzen processor and AMD Radeon graphics card.</p><p><b>Keywords for Wednesday, January 5th: ADP employment data, API crude oil, EIA crude oil, Markit services PMI</b></p><p><b>Wednesday,</b>The United States will announce<b>Mini Non-Farm Payrolls ADP Employment Data</b>。 Meanwhile, investors can pay attention to the United<b>API crude oil inventories for the week</b>、<b>EIA Crude Oil Inventory</b>, and<b>US December Markit Services PMI Final Reading</b>etc.</p><p><b>In addition,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a></b>We will be participating in CES 2022, which will be held from January 5th to January 8th. Jeff Fisher, Senior Vice President of NVIDIA GeForce, and Ali Kani, Vice President of NVIDIA Automotive, will showcase new breakthroughs in accelerated computing in the design, simulation, gaming, and autonomous vehicles.</p><p><b>Keywords for Thursday, January 6th: US initial jobless claims, US ISM non-manufacturing PMI, Bullard</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c48f735ec55f74f49fc54a791575f8c\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>On Thursday, in terms of global financial data, China's Caixin Services PMI, US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 1, US November trade balance, and US November factory orders month-on-month rate were released.</b>Data will be released gradually.<b>。</b></p><p><b>Regarding financial events,</b>The Federal Reserve FOMC will announce<b>Minutes of Monetary Policy Meeting</b>。</p><p><b>Keywords for Friday, January 7th: US non-farm payrolls, US December unemployment rate</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32067221f0041d5df0bd72f63b76174d\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"605\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>On Friday, regarding global financial data,</b>The United States will announce<b>Seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll data for December</b>as well as<b>Unemployment rate in December.</b></p><p><b>Regarding financial events,</b>FOMC voting member and St. Louis Federal Reserve President Bullard delivered a speech on the U.S. economy and monetary policy.</p><p><b>Regarding new stocks,</b>Little Yellow Duck Parent<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02250\">Deying Holdings</a></b>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06680\">gold force permanent magnet</a>Subscriptions have ended.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF华安","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122097379","content_text":"摘要:财经数据方面:中国财新制造业PMI、美国PMI、美国ADP就业数据、美国非农数据等事件方面:AMD 2022产品线上首发会、FOMC货币政策会议纪要、联储主席布拉德发表讲话等新股方面:环龙控股、德盈控股、金力永磁申购结束1月3日 周一关键词:美国ISM制造业PMI,港股通/沪深股通暂停交易,港股、美股开市周一,经济数据方面,投资者可关注美国Markit制造业PMI、以及中国香港零售销售额年率等。重点关注港股及美股开市情况。新股方面,环龙控股申购结束。此外,因元旦假期安排,A股休市,港股通、沪深股通暂停交易。港股、美股正常交易。1月4日 周二关键词:中国财新制造业PMI,美国ISM制造业PMI,AMD 2022产品线上首发会周二,财经数据方面,投资者可关注中国财新制造业PMI、以及美国ISM制造业PMI。此外,美国超微公司将举办2022年产品线上首发会,总裁兼CEO苏姿丰博士(Dr. Lisa Su)将在会上重点介绍采用即将推出的AMD锐龙处理器和AMD Radeon显卡的创新和解决方案。1月5日 周三关键词:小非农ADP就业数据,API原油,EIA原油,Markit服务业PMI周三,美国将公布小非农ADP就业数据。同时,投资者可关注美国当周API原油库存、EIA原油库存、以及美国12月Markit服务业PMI终值等。此外,英伟达将参加1月5日-1月8日举办的CES 2022。 英伟达 GeForce 高级副总裁 Jeff Fisher 和英伟达汽车部门副总裁Ali Kani将展示加速计算在设计、仿真、游戏和自动驾驶汽车方面的新突破。1月6日关键词周四:美国初请失业金、美国ISM非制造业PMI、布拉德周四,全球财经数据方面,中国财新服务业PMI、美国1月1日当周初请失业金人数、美国11月贸易帐、美国11月工厂订单月率等数据将陆续公布。财经事件方面,美联储FOMC将公布货币政策会议纪要。1月7日 周五关键词:美国非农就业人口,美国12月失业率周五,全球财经数据方面,美国将公布12月季调后非农就业人口数据以及12月失业率。财经事件方面,FOMC票委、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德就美国经济和货币政策发表讲话。新股方面,小黄鸭母公司德盈控股、金力永磁申购结束。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0,"518880":0,"SImain":0,".IXIC":0,".SPX":0,"SGCmain":0,"GDX":0,"DUST":0,"IAU":0,"NUGT":0,"MGCmain":0,"GLD":0,"SGUmain":0,".DJI":0,"GCmain":0}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4719,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9003081497,"gmtCreate":1640825687041,"gmtModify":1676533545015,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok ","listText":"Ok ","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9003081497","repostId":"1146550494","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4711,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":354334953,"gmtCreate":1617140992272,"gmtModify":1704696268829,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okie ","listText":"Okie ","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/354334953","repostId":"2123421823","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3809,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352812517,"gmtCreate":1616926713739,"gmtModify":1704800013850,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okie ","listText":"Okie ","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/352812517","repostId":"1176152843","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176152843","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616998863,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176152843?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-29 14:21","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Hong Hao: The Return of the King of Value is in Progress","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176152843","media":"洪灝的中国市场...","summary":"概要成长型股票相对于价值型股票的空前强势直到2020年6月开始有所回落。在2020年11月底价值真正开始王者归来之时,市场几乎没有注意到成长型股票相对强势的逆转。这种建立在信贷扩张、线性外推的增长预期","content":"<p><b>summary</b></p><p>The unprecedented strength of growth stocks relative to value stocks began to decline in June 2020. When value truly began its triumphant comeback at the end of November 2020, the market barely noticed the reversal of the relatively strong performance of growth stocks. This growth stock bubble, built on credit expansion, linearly extrapolated growth expectations, and human greed, eventually formed under conditions fully facilitated by extremely low-cost internet brokers. It is not an exaggeration to describe this market situation as a \"COVID-19 bubble\". This is true for both the Chinese and American markets. Last June, when we released \"<i><b>Outlook for the Second Half of 2020: The Hidden Dragon Wants to Be Used</b></i>At that time, we were the first to highlight the upcoming value sector rotation. In our article published last November<i><b>2021 Outlook: The Return of the Value King</b></i>In this article, we recommended value stocks, commodities, and Bitcoin, and suggested that emerging markets, Chinese A-shares, and Hong Kong stocks present long-term opportunities.</p><p>Currently, the growth bubble is threatened by rising bond yields and volatility and is beginning to converge rapidly. In the short term, continued growth investing is actually a linear extrapolation of the growth trend during the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, this kind of thinking is truly unimaginative, and imagination is a necessary factor for long-term growth investing. To put it bluntly, this way of thinking is downright pessimistic, because it predicts that the growth pattern during the COVID-19 pandemic will continue forever.</p><p>The global economy is recovering. As Chinese exports have become a more important input to the previously shut-down U.S. economy, the Chinese and American economic cycles are more closely intertwined than ever before. The strength in commodities foreshadows upstream inflationary pressures in China in the coming months, which are likely to be reflected in rising U.S. bond yields and volatility. Growth stocks are long-term assets and are therefore very sensitive to rising yields and volatility. Simply put, rising yields depress growth multiples, while increasing volatility makes people more eager to profit from the significant gains in growth stocks. Funds should continue to rotate to relatively safe value stocks.</p><p>Cyclical and overall commodity strength is unfolding in full swing. A troubling question is where should the money be invested in the next phase of the recovery? While the definitions of cyclical sectors and commodities are absolute, the definitions of value sectors are relative. In the current situation, we can temporarily replace value with underestimated value. In other words, \"value investing\" today is similar to \"valuation investing\". Both cyclical and non-cyclical values are repairing their weakness, but they are still below the long-term average. Cyclical and non-cyclical growth are exactly the opposite. Valuations will continue to recover in cyclical and non-cyclical value stocks such as consumer, industrial, financial, and telecommunications.</p><p>Nevertheless, geopolitical risks are also rising. In recent high-level talks, the two sides clashed and imposed new sanctions. These risks will drag down the market in the short term. As China's economy continues to recover, it is unlikely that China's reserve requirement ratio will be significantly reduced. China's credit expansion, constrained by the real estate bubble, will begin to slow down. Historically, the weakening of the RMB has been largely synchronized with economic and geopolitical risks, just as in 2008 and 2018. Changes in valuations, measured as the ratio of market capitalization to GDP, indicate that the index's gains are limited. Therefore, we continue to believe that opportunities lie more in the rotation of value sectors than in the overall absolute index level. Of course, we must also emphasize that China's long-term investment value cannot be expressed by short-term price fluctuations in bonds, exchange rates, commodities, and stock markets.</p><p>This is the English version of our report dated March 27, 2021.<b>Value Striking Back</b>The Chinese translation of \". Thanks for reading.</p><p><b>Value is making a triumphant return.</b></p><p><b>Global economic recovery</b></p><p>Recovery has arrived. This round of economic recovery is likely to continue in the short term, and the strength of the recovery is likely to exceed market expectations in the near future, unless the COVID-19 pandemic recurs and exacerbates the uncertainty of the economic outlook. Due to market demand, we have held a series of book club events in many cities over the past few months, sharing my years of research experience with readers and fans. Many of the participants have professional investment backgrounds. Our book<i><b>Forecast: Economic, cyclical, and market bubbles</b></i>It has been printed a record ten times within four months of its publication.</p><p>During our tour, the Shanghai Composite Index slightly exceeded the upper limit of the 2,900-3,600 trading range we predicted in our outlook report last November. When we released the \"<i><b>Outlook for the Second Half of 2020: The Hidden Dragon Wants to Be Used</b></i>In this article, we hinted for the first time at the upcoming rotation of value styles. In our published \"<b><i>2021 Outlook: The Return of the Value King</i></b>In our report, we recommend value stocks, commodities, and Bitcoin to investors, and discuss the long-term investment value of emerging markets, mainland China, and Hong Kong. Clearly, capital market participants are eager to know our predictions for the market's next move. This is the question we are most often asked in book clubs, and it is also the most challenging part of our work.</p><p>To illustrate the stage of China's monetary policy cycle, we compared the year-on-year changes in China's reserve requirement ratio with the spot price of rebar.<b>Chart 1</b>)。 These two variables are closely related. The year-on-year change in the reserve requirement ratio is stabilizing, indicating that the monetary easing phase using the reserve requirement ratio as a proxy indicator has basically ended. If China loosens its monetary policy<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HX\">and credit</a>If the self-discipline of expansion leads to a cooling of the economy, then the reserve requirement ratio will be lowered again. However, this is not our baseline situation. We believe that the reserve requirement ratio is unlikely to change in the near future, which is similar to the pattern of the monetary policy cycle from 2013 to 2014 and from 2017 to early 2018. At this stage, a reserve requirement ratio cut will be seen by the market as a signal of economic weakness, which will trigger a sell-off in cyclical assets.</p><p><b>Chart 1: Rebar prices and reserve requirement ratios indicate economic recovery, with commodities strongly at high levels.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1b37320d574c6e7f41ce208626e3dcd\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03329\">BOCOM International</a></p><p>At the same time, the US economy is also recovering. We compared the leading components of U.S. consumer expectations, the U.S. Treasury Bond yield curve, and the performance of the S&P 500 index. These important and reliable leading economic indicators also demonstrate a strong economic recovery.<b>Chart 2</b>)。 Our European indicators also point in the same direction (European charts are not shown in this article). In the baseline scenario where the COVID-19 pandemic is under control, the world's largest economies are recovering simultaneously, and the recovery will become increasingly strong. These observations are consistent with our outlook report published on November 20, 2020.<i><b>2021 Outlook: The Return of the Value King</b></i>The predictions made in the article are consistent.</p><p><b>Chart 2: The leading component of U.S. consumer expectations, the yield curve, and the S&P 500 all reflect economic recovery.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e9af901558fbc4a3cd0809794e9fe8\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03329\">BOCOM International</a></p><p><b>The interconnected economies of China and the United States</b></p><p>The economies of China and the United States are so closely linked that many major economic variables are highly correlated. In our view, there is actually only one economic cycle that needs to be analyzed. On September 3, 2018, we published a groundbreaking research paper titled \"<i><b>The conflict between the US and China cycles</b></i>This article explores the economic cycles between China and the United States, and how these cycles intertwine and affect the market. We used quantitative methods to verify the operation and impact of the short-term economic cycles of about three years in both countries, and demonstrated how China's economic cycle leads the United States, as well as how these short-term cycles are nested together to form medium and long-term cycles.</p><p>The linkage between the Chinese and American economic cycles will continue, and key economic variables will remain highly correlated. We believe that given the two countries' drastically different approaches to managing the pandemic, Chinese exports have become a more important import force for the U.S. economy. Therefore, the economic cycles of these two largest economies are now inevitably more closely intertwined. Therefore, China's inflation outlook will continue to have a significant impact on US Treasury Bond yields; The US Treasury Bond yield, which has long been the global risk-free benchmark interest rate, will in turn affect the Chinese stock market. In fact, we can see from the chart below how closely these economic variables are linked.<b>Chart 3</b>)</p><p><b>Chart 3: The economic cycles of China and the United States are closely intertwined; All key economic variables are highly correlated</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5be60ca9c697079030b80e294059fe63\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p><b>Value is making a triumphant return.</b></p><p>To understand the stage of China's credit cycle, we compare China's credit situation with the relative performance of growth stocks versus value stocks.<b>Chart 4</b>)。 We can see that credit expansion is driving growth stocks relative to value stocks, and vice versa. We note that the strength of growth stocks began in 2019, when China's economic cycle was beginning to recover from the trough of the US-China trade war. However, in 2020, with the continued expansion of credit and the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, the relative performance of growth stocks reached an unprecedented level of strength.</p><p>The pandemic has likely changed the market's perception of growth stocks, many of which are internet platform companies. After all, these companies demonstrated strong profit resilience in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic. Strong profitability, sustained credit expansion, and ever-changing expectations during the pandemic are necessary conditions for the emergence of a \"COVID-19 bubble\" in growth stocks. However, we would like to remind everyone not to linearly extrapolate this growth potential during extraordinary times.</p><p>In the post-pandemic era, the economy has stopped shrinking and continued to recover. In a sustained economic environment, the relative strength of growth stocks will weaken. In other words, during the economic expansion phase, growth stocks no longer seize market share from value stocks. It now appears that this is indeed the case.<b>Chart 4</b>Growth stocks will undoubtedly continue to grow—don't misunderstand our view of growth as a key long-term factor in an investment strategy, but the unreasonable growth expectations implied in their valuations are likely to weaken—just as the \"COVID-19 bubble\" is currently shrinking.</p><p><b>Chart 4: Credit expansion has boosted the relative strength of growth over value to an unprecedented level.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43e579959ce014072cb03f33e11c73f6\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p>In the US market, our quantitative analysis has also verified a similar \"COVID-19 bubble\"—the relative strength of growth stocks against value stocks is far greater than historical levels. However, with the rollout of vaccination programs, the relative strength of growth over value is now reversing.<b>Chart 5</b>)。</p><p>As we showed in the chart above the relationship between China's PPI cycle, commodity strength, and the US 10-year Treasury Bond yield, China's PPI is likely to rise further in the near future. At the same time, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond will also rise accordingly. Therefore, volatility in U.S. bonds is likely to increase in the coming months.</p><p>From<b>Chart 5</b>We can see that bond market volatility is negatively correlated with the relative strength of growth stocks. Growth stocks are inherently long-term assets, as evidenced by their high valuations. Intuitively speaking, in a stable environment, investors are more likely to linearly extrapolate growth over infinite forward terms. Therefore, increased volatility in the bond market will put pressure on the valuation of long-term assets such as growth stocks.</p><p><b>Chart 5: Rising bond volatility will compress growth stock valuations, further weakening their relative strength.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/004f49c4b3a615c54758859cdb75c9c6\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p>We can further see that cyclical sectors have far outperformed the market as the economy recovers.<b>Chart 6</b>)。 In fact, the strong performance of cyclical sectors has likely surprised market companies. As we look ahead to 2021 (\"<i><b>Outlook 2021: The Return of the King of Value</b></i>When the first prediction of a strong comeback for cyclical stocks was made in [20201120], most people found it hard to believe. However, the rise of cyclical sectors has gradually become a market consensus, and their strong performance seems to fully reflect the prospects for economic recovery. So, what other investment opportunities does the market have in the next phase of economic recovery?</p><p><b>Chart 6: Cyclical sectors have significantly outperformed as the economy recovers.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c967cd8cce31128e469b09cd87a8359\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p>We can further divide value and growth into cyclical value/growth and non-cyclical value/growth. We can see that although cyclical and non-cyclical growth have outperformed, their strength is waning. At the same time, cyclical and non-cyclical values are gradually recovering from their previous decline.<b>Chart 7</b>)。 These observations are consistent with the previous ones.<b>Chart 5</b>and<b>Chart 6</b>Consistent.</p><p>In other words, even though value is making a triumphant comeback, its upward momentum can still be further strengthened. However, the strength of growth stocks is waning. Therefore, value stocks, whether cyclical or non-cyclical, will continue to be the best investment option for the next phase of economic recovery.</p><p><b>Chart 7: Cyclical and non-cyclical value sectors strengthened, while cyclical and non-cyclical growth sectors weakened.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cf96cf2a78ec0bb120d35d91a9b55cd\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p><b>Geopolitical risks disrupt markets</b></p><p>The delicate relationship between the two economic powerhouses was highlighted by the sparkling and heated rhetoric from both sides during the recent high-level dialogue in Alaska. Geopolitical risks are high, and historically, the RMB has been an effective proxy for such risks. We can see that each depreciation of the RMB is accompanied by an increase in political or economic risks, such as during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2018 US-China trade war.<b>Chart 8</b>)。</p><p>Furthermore, the spread between Chinese and American bond yields is often a precursor to RMB depreciation, and this spread is currently narrowing rapidly. While the RMB depreciates, the Shanghai Composite Index often weakens in tandem. Of course, the movement of currencies, bond yields, and stock markets is a reflection of weak economic fundamentals amid economic or geopolitical risks. However, the current economic recovery is likely to offset the impact of these adverse factors to some extent.</p><p><b>Chart 8: High geopolitical risks and a narrowing spread between Chinese and US bond yields indicate pressure on the RMB to depreciate.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63f50ecad4f89147f6618cf606b735c7\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p>Overall, market returns relative to economic growth have reached historical highs. Historically, the year-on-year change in the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP has often peaked at around 7%.<b>Chart 9</b>)。 Historically, when this rate exceeds 7%, it either corresponds to the bubble periods of 2007 and 2015, or during the economic recovery phase of 2009. Even after early August 2009, when the year-on-year change in the total market capitalization to GDP ratio exceeded 7%, the Shanghai Composite Index did not continue to hit new highs. In the following months, the Shanghai Composite Index traded sideways until it began to fall again in 2010 after the People's Bank of China began tightening monetary policy. Therefore, we continue to believe that market opportunities lie in value rotation, or changes in the internal structure of the market, rather than the absolute level of the index.</p><p><b>Chart 9: Market returns and valuation changes have reached historical highs.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5f71036f448c2198bbd0e347979aec\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p>","source":"lsy1573477999576","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Hao: The Return of the King of Value is in Progress</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Hao: The Return of the King of Value is in Progress\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">洪灝的中国市场...</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-29 14:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>summary</b></p><p>The unprecedented strength of growth stocks relative to value stocks began to decline in June 2020. When value truly began its triumphant comeback at the end of November 2020, the market barely noticed the reversal of the relatively strong performance of growth stocks. This growth stock bubble, built on credit expansion, linearly extrapolated growth expectations, and human greed, eventually formed under conditions fully facilitated by extremely low-cost internet brokers. It is not an exaggeration to describe this market situation as a \"COVID-19 bubble\". This is true for both the Chinese and American markets. Last June, when we released \"<i><b>Outlook for the Second Half of 2020: The Hidden Dragon Wants to Be Used</b></i>At that time, we were the first to highlight the upcoming value sector rotation. In our article published last November<i><b>2021 Outlook: The Return of the Value King</b></i>In this article, we recommended value stocks, commodities, and Bitcoin, and suggested that emerging markets, Chinese A-shares, and Hong Kong stocks present long-term opportunities.</p><p>Currently, the growth bubble is threatened by rising bond yields and volatility and is beginning to converge rapidly. In the short term, continued growth investing is actually a linear extrapolation of the growth trend during the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, this kind of thinking is truly unimaginative, and imagination is a necessary factor for long-term growth investing. To put it bluntly, this way of thinking is downright pessimistic, because it predicts that the growth pattern during the COVID-19 pandemic will continue forever.</p><p>The global economy is recovering. As Chinese exports have become a more important input to the previously shut-down U.S. economy, the Chinese and American economic cycles are more closely intertwined than ever before. The strength in commodities foreshadows upstream inflationary pressures in China in the coming months, which are likely to be reflected in rising U.S. bond yields and volatility. Growth stocks are long-term assets and are therefore very sensitive to rising yields and volatility. Simply put, rising yields depress growth multiples, while increasing volatility makes people more eager to profit from the significant gains in growth stocks. Funds should continue to rotate to relatively safe value stocks.</p><p>Cyclical and overall commodity strength is unfolding in full swing. A troubling question is where should the money be invested in the next phase of the recovery? While the definitions of cyclical sectors and commodities are absolute, the definitions of value sectors are relative. In the current situation, we can temporarily replace value with underestimated value. In other words, \"value investing\" today is similar to \"valuation investing\". Both cyclical and non-cyclical values are repairing their weakness, but they are still below the long-term average. Cyclical and non-cyclical growth are exactly the opposite. Valuations will continue to recover in cyclical and non-cyclical value stocks such as consumer, industrial, financial, and telecommunications.</p><p>Nevertheless, geopolitical risks are also rising. In recent high-level talks, the two sides clashed and imposed new sanctions. These risks will drag down the market in the short term. As China's economy continues to recover, it is unlikely that China's reserve requirement ratio will be significantly reduced. China's credit expansion, constrained by the real estate bubble, will begin to slow down. Historically, the weakening of the RMB has been largely synchronized with economic and geopolitical risks, just as in 2008 and 2018. Changes in valuations, measured as the ratio of market capitalization to GDP, indicate that the index's gains are limited. Therefore, we continue to believe that opportunities lie more in the rotation of value sectors than in the overall absolute index level. Of course, we must also emphasize that China's long-term investment value cannot be expressed by short-term price fluctuations in bonds, exchange rates, commodities, and stock markets.</p><p>This is the English version of our report dated March 27, 2021.<b>Value Striking Back</b>The Chinese translation of \". Thanks for reading.</p><p><b>Value is making a triumphant return.</b></p><p><b>Global economic recovery</b></p><p>Recovery has arrived. This round of economic recovery is likely to continue in the short term, and the strength of the recovery is likely to exceed market expectations in the near future, unless the COVID-19 pandemic recurs and exacerbates the uncertainty of the economic outlook. Due to market demand, we have held a series of book club events in many cities over the past few months, sharing my years of research experience with readers and fans. Many of the participants have professional investment backgrounds. Our book<i><b>Forecast: Economic, cyclical, and market bubbles</b></i>It has been printed a record ten times within four months of its publication.</p><p>During our tour, the Shanghai Composite Index slightly exceeded the upper limit of the 2,900-3,600 trading range we predicted in our outlook report last November. When we released the \"<i><b>Outlook for the Second Half of 2020: The Hidden Dragon Wants to Be Used</b></i>In this article, we hinted for the first time at the upcoming rotation of value styles. In our published \"<b><i>2021 Outlook: The Return of the Value King</i></b>In our report, we recommend value stocks, commodities, and Bitcoin to investors, and discuss the long-term investment value of emerging markets, mainland China, and Hong Kong. Clearly, capital market participants are eager to know our predictions for the market's next move. This is the question we are most often asked in book clubs, and it is also the most challenging part of our work.</p><p>To illustrate the stage of China's monetary policy cycle, we compared the year-on-year changes in China's reserve requirement ratio with the spot price of rebar.<b>Chart 1</b>)。 These two variables are closely related. The year-on-year change in the reserve requirement ratio is stabilizing, indicating that the monetary easing phase using the reserve requirement ratio as a proxy indicator has basically ended. If China loosens its monetary policy<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HX\">and credit</a>If the self-discipline of expansion leads to a cooling of the economy, then the reserve requirement ratio will be lowered again. However, this is not our baseline situation. We believe that the reserve requirement ratio is unlikely to change in the near future, which is similar to the pattern of the monetary policy cycle from 2013 to 2014 and from 2017 to early 2018. At this stage, a reserve requirement ratio cut will be seen by the market as a signal of economic weakness, which will trigger a sell-off in cyclical assets.</p><p><b>Chart 1: Rebar prices and reserve requirement ratios indicate economic recovery, with commodities strongly at high levels.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1b37320d574c6e7f41ce208626e3dcd\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03329\">BOCOM International</a></p><p>At the same time, the US economy is also recovering. We compared the leading components of U.S. consumer expectations, the U.S. Treasury Bond yield curve, and the performance of the S&P 500 index. These important and reliable leading economic indicators also demonstrate a strong economic recovery.<b>Chart 2</b>)。 Our European indicators also point in the same direction (European charts are not shown in this article). In the baseline scenario where the COVID-19 pandemic is under control, the world's largest economies are recovering simultaneously, and the recovery will become increasingly strong. These observations are consistent with our outlook report published on November 20, 2020.<i><b>2021 Outlook: The Return of the Value King</b></i>The predictions made in the article are consistent.</p><p><b>Chart 2: The leading component of U.S. consumer expectations, the yield curve, and the S&P 500 all reflect economic recovery.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e9af901558fbc4a3cd0809794e9fe8\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03329\">BOCOM International</a></p><p><b>The interconnected economies of China and the United States</b></p><p>The economies of China and the United States are so closely linked that many major economic variables are highly correlated. In our view, there is actually only one economic cycle that needs to be analyzed. On September 3, 2018, we published a groundbreaking research paper titled \"<i><b>The conflict between the US and China cycles</b></i>This article explores the economic cycles between China and the United States, and how these cycles intertwine and affect the market. We used quantitative methods to verify the operation and impact of the short-term economic cycles of about three years in both countries, and demonstrated how China's economic cycle leads the United States, as well as how these short-term cycles are nested together to form medium and long-term cycles.</p><p>The linkage between the Chinese and American economic cycles will continue, and key economic variables will remain highly correlated. We believe that given the two countries' drastically different approaches to managing the pandemic, Chinese exports have become a more important import force for the U.S. economy. Therefore, the economic cycles of these two largest economies are now inevitably more closely intertwined. Therefore, China's inflation outlook will continue to have a significant impact on US Treasury Bond yields; The US Treasury Bond yield, which has long been the global risk-free benchmark interest rate, will in turn affect the Chinese stock market. In fact, we can see from the chart below how closely these economic variables are linked.<b>Chart 3</b>)</p><p><b>Chart 3: The economic cycles of China and the United States are closely intertwined; All key economic variables are highly correlated</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5be60ca9c697079030b80e294059fe63\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p><b>Value is making a triumphant return.</b></p><p>To understand the stage of China's credit cycle, we compare China's credit situation with the relative performance of growth stocks versus value stocks.<b>Chart 4</b>)。 We can see that credit expansion is driving growth stocks relative to value stocks, and vice versa. We note that the strength of growth stocks began in 2019, when China's economic cycle was beginning to recover from the trough of the US-China trade war. However, in 2020, with the continued expansion of credit and the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, the relative performance of growth stocks reached an unprecedented level of strength.</p><p>The pandemic has likely changed the market's perception of growth stocks, many of which are internet platform companies. After all, these companies demonstrated strong profit resilience in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic. Strong profitability, sustained credit expansion, and ever-changing expectations during the pandemic are necessary conditions for the emergence of a \"COVID-19 bubble\" in growth stocks. However, we would like to remind everyone not to linearly extrapolate this growth potential during extraordinary times.</p><p>In the post-pandemic era, the economy has stopped shrinking and continued to recover. In a sustained economic environment, the relative strength of growth stocks will weaken. In other words, during the economic expansion phase, growth stocks no longer seize market share from value stocks. It now appears that this is indeed the case.<b>Chart 4</b>Growth stocks will undoubtedly continue to grow—don't misunderstand our view of growth as a key long-term factor in an investment strategy, but the unreasonable growth expectations implied in their valuations are likely to weaken—just as the \"COVID-19 bubble\" is currently shrinking.</p><p><b>Chart 4: Credit expansion has boosted the relative strength of growth over value to an unprecedented level.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43e579959ce014072cb03f33e11c73f6\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p>In the US market, our quantitative analysis has also verified a similar \"COVID-19 bubble\"—the relative strength of growth stocks against value stocks is far greater than historical levels. However, with the rollout of vaccination programs, the relative strength of growth over value is now reversing.<b>Chart 5</b>)。</p><p>As we showed in the chart above the relationship between China's PPI cycle, commodity strength, and the US 10-year Treasury Bond yield, China's PPI is likely to rise further in the near future. At the same time, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond will also rise accordingly. Therefore, volatility in U.S. bonds is likely to increase in the coming months.</p><p>From<b>Chart 5</b>We can see that bond market volatility is negatively correlated with the relative strength of growth stocks. Growth stocks are inherently long-term assets, as evidenced by their high valuations. Intuitively speaking, in a stable environment, investors are more likely to linearly extrapolate growth over infinite forward terms. Therefore, increased volatility in the bond market will put pressure on the valuation of long-term assets such as growth stocks.</p><p><b>Chart 5: Rising bond volatility will compress growth stock valuations, further weakening their relative strength.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/004f49c4b3a615c54758859cdb75c9c6\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p>We can further see that cyclical sectors have far outperformed the market as the economy recovers.<b>Chart 6</b>)。 In fact, the strong performance of cyclical sectors has likely surprised market companies. As we look ahead to 2021 (\"<i><b>Outlook 2021: The Return of the King of Value</b></i>When the first prediction of a strong comeback for cyclical stocks was made in [20201120], most people found it hard to believe. However, the rise of cyclical sectors has gradually become a market consensus, and their strong performance seems to fully reflect the prospects for economic recovery. So, what other investment opportunities does the market have in the next phase of economic recovery?</p><p><b>Chart 6: Cyclical sectors have significantly outperformed as the economy recovers.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c967cd8cce31128e469b09cd87a8359\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p>We can further divide value and growth into cyclical value/growth and non-cyclical value/growth. We can see that although cyclical and non-cyclical growth have outperformed, their strength is waning. At the same time, cyclical and non-cyclical values are gradually recovering from their previous decline.<b>Chart 7</b>)。 These observations are consistent with the previous ones.<b>Chart 5</b>and<b>Chart 6</b>Consistent.</p><p>In other words, even though value is making a triumphant comeback, its upward momentum can still be further strengthened. However, the strength of growth stocks is waning. Therefore, value stocks, whether cyclical or non-cyclical, will continue to be the best investment option for the next phase of economic recovery.</p><p><b>Chart 7: Cyclical and non-cyclical value sectors strengthened, while cyclical and non-cyclical growth sectors weakened.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cf96cf2a78ec0bb120d35d91a9b55cd\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p><b>Geopolitical risks disrupt markets</b></p><p>The delicate relationship between the two economic powerhouses was highlighted by the sparkling and heated rhetoric from both sides during the recent high-level dialogue in Alaska. Geopolitical risks are high, and historically, the RMB has been an effective proxy for such risks. We can see that each depreciation of the RMB is accompanied by an increase in political or economic risks, such as during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2018 US-China trade war.<b>Chart 8</b>)。</p><p>Furthermore, the spread between Chinese and American bond yields is often a precursor to RMB depreciation, and this spread is currently narrowing rapidly. While the RMB depreciates, the Shanghai Composite Index often weakens in tandem. Of course, the movement of currencies, bond yields, and stock markets is a reflection of weak economic fundamentals amid economic or geopolitical risks. However, the current economic recovery is likely to offset the impact of these adverse factors to some extent.</p><p><b>Chart 8: High geopolitical risks and a narrowing spread between Chinese and US bond yields indicate pressure on the RMB to depreciate.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63f50ecad4f89147f6618cf606b735c7\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p>Overall, market returns relative to economic growth have reached historical highs. Historically, the year-on-year change in the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP has often peaked at around 7%.<b>Chart 9</b>)。 Historically, when this rate exceeds 7%, it either corresponds to the bubble periods of 2007 and 2015, or during the economic recovery phase of 2009. Even after early August 2009, when the year-on-year change in the total market capitalization to GDP ratio exceeded 7%, the Shanghai Composite Index did not continue to hit new highs. In the following months, the Shanghai Composite Index traded sideways until it began to fall again in 2010 after the People's Bank of China began tightening monetary policy. Therefore, we continue to believe that market opportunities lie in value rotation, or changes in the internal structure of the market, rather than the absolute level of the index.</p><p><b>Chart 9: Market returns and valuation changes have reached historical highs.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5f71036f448c2198bbd0e347979aec\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwMTAwMzcxMg==&mid=2650864815&idx=1&sn=d5c275c2f2fbe6b7f91c4df1a2056ab8&chksm=81140500b6638c16bdcf45d237dc4038bc4a7b1b6fb3e317140f1740a13747d9428cf61ac677&scene=0&xtrack=1\">洪灝的中国市场...</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwMTAwMzcxMg==&mid=2650864815&idx=1&sn=d5c275c2f2fbe6b7f91c4df1a2056ab8&chksm=81140500b6638c16bdcf45d237dc4038bc4a7b1b6fb3e317140f1740a13747d9428cf61ac677&scene=0&xtrack=1","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176152843","content_text":"概要成长型股票相对于价值型股票的空前强势直到2020年6月开始有所回落。在2020年11月底价值真正开始王者归来之时,市场几乎没有注意到成长型股票相对强势的逆转。这种建立在信贷扩张、线性外推的增长预期和人类贪婪的基础上的成长型股票强势,同时在极低成本的互联网经纪商提供了充分便利的条件下,最终形成了一个成长型股票泡沫。用“新冠泡沫”来形容这个市场情况并不为过。中美市场皆如此。去年6月,当我们发布《2020下半年展望:潜龙欲用》时,我们率先提示了即将出现的价值板块轮动。在我们去年11月发表的《2021年展望:价值王者归来》中,我们推荐了价值股、大宗商品和比特币,并提出了新兴市场、中国A股和港股是长期机会。当下,成长型泡沫受到不断上升的债券收益率和波动性的威胁,并开始快速收敛。短期内,继续成长型投资实际上是在线性外推新冠疫情期间的增长形势。因此,这样的思考才是真正缺乏想象力的,而想象力则是长期成长型投资所必需的因素。说白了,这种思考方法简直就是悲观主义,因为它预测新冠疫情期间的增长模式将永远持续下去。全球经济正在复苏。由于中国出口已成为之前停摆了的美国经济更为重要的输入,中美经济周期比以往任何时候都更加紧密地交织在一起。大宗商品的强势预示着中国未来几个月上游通胀的压力,很可能会反映在美国债券收益率和波动性的上升。成长型股票是长久期资产,因此对收益率和波动性的上升非常敏感。简单地说,不断上升的收益率压低了增长倍数,而不断加剧的波动性则让人们更急于从成长型股票的显著收益中获利了结。资金应继续轮动到相对安全的价值股。周期性和大宗商品的整体强势正在全面展开。一个令人头疼的问题是,在复苏的下一阶段,钱应该往哪里投?虽然周期性板块和大宗商品的定义是绝对的,但价值板块的定义却是相对的。在当前的这种情况下,我们可以用低估值来暂时代替价值。或者说,现在的“价值投资”类似于“估值投资”。周期性价值和非周期性价值都在修复其弱势,但仍低于长期平均水平。周期性成长和非周期性成长的情况正好相反。在消费、工业、金融和电信等周期性和非周期性价值股里,估值仍将进一步修复。尽管如此,地缘政治风险也在上升。最近的高层对话里,双方锋芒相对,并实施了新的制裁。这些风险将在短期内拖累市场。在中国经济继续修复时,中国的存准率不太可能大幅降低。而中国的信贷扩张受到房地产泡沫的牵制将开始放缓。从历史上看,人民币走软与经济和经济、地缘政治风险大体同步,就像2008年和2018年那样。以市值与GDP之比衡量的估值的变化表明,指数涨幅受限。因此,我们继续认为,机会更多在于价值板块的轮动,而不是整体绝对指数水平。当然,我们也必须强调,中国长期的投资价值,并不是短期里的债券、汇率、大宗商品和股市的价格波动可以表达的。这是我们2021年3月27日的英文版报告《Value Striking Back》的中文翻译版。感谢阅读。价值正在王者归来全球经济复苏复苏已然到来。本轮经济复苏短期内很可能会持续,并且复苏力度很可能在近期超过市场预期,除非新冠疫情反复,加剧经济前景的不确定性。由于市场需求,我们在过去几个月在许多城市里开展了一系列读书会活动,与读者和粉丝们分享了我多年的研究心得。许多参会者都具有专业的投资背景。我们的书《预测: 经济、周期和市场泡沫》在出版后四个月内已破纪录地印刷了十次。在我们的巡回之旅中,上证综指曾略微超过了我们在去年11月展望报告中,预测的交易区间2,900-3,600的上限。当我们在去年6月发布的《2020年下半年展望:潜龙欲用》中,我们首次暗示了即将到来的价值风格轮动。在我们发布的《2021年展望:价值王者归来》报告中,我们向投资者推荐了价值股、大宗商品和比特币,并且论述了新兴市场、中国内地和中国香港市场的长期投资价值。显然,资本市场参与者们都很想知道我们对市场下一步走势的预测。这是我们在读书会中最常被问到的问题,也是我们工作中最具有挑战性的部分。为了展示中国货币政策周期的所处阶段,我们比较了中国的存准率与螺纹钢现货价格的同比变化(图表1)。这两个变量是密切相关的。存准率的同比变化正趋于平稳,表明以存准为代理指标的货币宽松阶段已基本结束。如果中国因对货币宽松和信贷扩张的自我约束导致经济降温,那么存款准备金率将被再次下调。但是,这并不是我们的基准情形。我们认为,存准率在未来一段时间内都不太可能有所变动,这与2013年至2014年,以及2017年至2018年初货币政策周期运行规律类似。在现阶段,降准将反而被市场视为经济疲软的信号,反而会引发市场对周期性资产的抛售。图表 1: 螺纹钢价格和存准率走势显示经济复苏,大宗商品强势处于高位资料来源:彭博,交银国际与此同时,美国经济也在复苏。我们比较了美国消费者预期中的领先成分、美国国债收益率曲线,以及标普500指数的表现。这些重要而可靠的经济领先指标同时显示着经济的强劲复苏 (图表2)。我们的欧洲指标也指向了同样的方向(欧洲图表本文没有展示)。在新冠疫情得到控制的基准情形中,世界上最大的几个经济体在同步复苏,而且复苏的力度将变得越来越强劲。这些观察结果与我们在发表于2020年11月20日的展望报告《2021年展望:价值王者归来》中所做的预测一致。图表 2: 美国消费者预期的领先成分、收益率曲线和标普500均反映经济复苏资料来源:彭博,交银国际中美经济的交错联动中美经济的联系非常紧密,以至于许多主要的经济变量都高度相关。在我们看来,实际上真正需要分析的经济周期只有一个。2018年9月3日,我们发表了一篇开创性的研究论文《中美周期的冲突》,探讨了中美的经济周期,以及这些周期如何相互交织影响市场。我们用量化的方法验证了两国3年左右的经济短周期的运行和影响,并且论证了中国经济周期如何引领美国,以及这些短期周期如何互相嵌套形成中周期和长周期。中美经济周期的联动将持续,关键的经济变量也将继续高度相关。我们认为,鉴于两国对疫情截然不同的管理方式,中国出口已然成为对美国经济更加重要的输入力量。因此,这两个最大的经济体的经济周期现在必然更加紧密地交织在一起。因此,中国的通胀前景将继续对美国国债收益率产生显著的影响;而长期以来一直是全球无风险基准利率的美国国债收益率,也将反过来影响着中国的股市。事实上,我们可以从下面的图表中看到这些经济变量是如何紧密的联系在一起。(图表3)图表3: 中美经济周期紧密交织;所有关键的经济变量高度相关资料来源:彭博,交银国际价值正在王者归来为了了解中国信贷周期的所处阶段,我们将中国的信贷状况与成长股对价值股的相对表现进行比较(图表4)。我们可以看到信贷扩张推动成长股相对价值股走强,反之亦然。我们注意到,成长股的强势始于2019年,当时中国的经济周期正开始从中美贸易战的谷底修复。但在2020年,随着信贷持续扩张和新冠疫情的蔓延,成长股的相对表现达到了前所未有的强势水平。疫情很可能改变了市场对成长股的看法,其中许多成长股是互联网平台公司。毕竟,这些公司面对新冠疫情肆虐时,展现出了良好的盈利韧性。强劲的盈利能力、持续的信贷扩张以及疫情期间不断变化的预期,是在成长股中滋生“新冠泡沫”的必要条件。但我们要提醒大家,不要在线性外推这种在一个非常时期的成长性。后疫情时代,经济停止萎缩、持续复苏。在一个持续增长的经济环境中,成长股的相对强势将趋弱。换句话说,在经济扩张阶段,成长股不再从价值股中抢占市场份额。现在看来,情况确实如此(图表4),成长股毫无疑问会继续成长——不要误解了我们对于成长作为一个投资策略关键长期因子的看法,但它们估值中蕴含的不合理的增长预期很可能会减弱—— 一如当下,“新冠泡沫”正在萎缩。图表 4: 信贷扩张推升成长对价值的相对强势到了一个前所未有的高度资料来源:彭博,交银国际在美国市场,我们的量化分析也验证了一个类似的“新冠泡沫”——成长股对价值股的相对强势程度远远高于历史水平。但是,随着疫苗接种计划的推广,现在成长对价值的相对强势正在逆转(图表5)。正如我们在上面的图表中展示的中国PPI周期、大宗商品强势与美国十年期国债收益率之间的关系,中国PPI在近期很可能会进一步走高。与此同时,美国十年期国债收益率也会同步上升。因此,美国债券的波动性在未来几个月很可能会加剧。从图表5中我们可以看到,债券市场波动率与成长股的相对强势呈负相关。成长股本质上是长久期资产,其高昂的估值也证明了这一点。直观地说,在一个稳定的环境中,投资者更容易将成长性线性地推断无限的远期。因此,债券市场波动率上升,将对长久期资产(如成长股)的估值构成压力。图表 5:债券波动率上升将压缩成长股估值,进一步减弱其相对强势资料来源:彭博,交银国际我们可以进一步看到,周期性板块的表现已随着经济复苏的远远跑赢了市场 (图表6)。事实上,周期性板块的强劲表现很可能已令市场公司惊讶。当我们在2021年展望(《展望2021:价值王者归来》,20201120)中首次预测周期性股票将强势归来时,大多数人都觉得难以置信。但现在周期性板块的崛起已逐渐成为市场共识,并且,它们的强劲表现似乎已经比较充分地反映了经济的复苏前景。那么,在经济复苏的下一阶段,市场还有哪些其他的投资机会呢?图表 6: 随着经济复苏,周期性板块已经大幅跑赢资料来源:彭博,交银国际我们可以进一步将价值和成长分为周期性价值/成长和非周期性价值/成长。我们可以发现,尽管周期性成长和非周期性成长已经跑赢,但是它们的强势正在衰退。与此同时,周期性价值和非周期性价值正在从往日的颓势中逐渐修复(图表7)。这些观察结果与前文的图表5和图表6一致。也就是说,即使价值正在王者归来,但其上涨动能仍可以进一步增强。然而,成长股的强势正在衰减。因此,价值股,无论是周期性的还是非周期性的,都将继续作为下一阶段经济复苏的最佳投资选择。图表7: 周期和非周期价值板块走强,周期和非周期成长板块趋弱资料来源:彭博,交银国际地缘政治风险扰动市场最近在阿拉斯加举行的高层对话中,双方火花四射的激烈言辞凸显了这两大经济强国之间的微妙关系。地缘政治风险很高,从历史上看,人民币一直是此类风险有效的代理指标。我们可以看到,每次人民币贬值都伴随着政治或经济风险的加剧,比如2008年金融危机期间,以及2018年中美贸易战期间(图表8)。此外,中美债券收益率差往往是人民币贬值的先行信号,目前这一利差正在迅速收窄。在人民币贬值的同时,上证综指往往同步走弱。当然,货币、债券收益率和股市的走势是经济或地缘政治风险中羸弱的经济基本面的反映。但是,目前的经济复苏很可能会在一定程度上抵消这些不利的因素的影响。图表 8: 地缘政治风险较高,中美债券收益率差收窄,预示人民币贬值压力资料来源:彭博,交银国际总体而言,市场回报率相对于经济增长已达到历史高位。总市值与GDP比率的同比变化历史上往往在7%左右见顶(图表9)。而历史上当这一比率突破7%时,要么对应着2007年和2015年的泡沫时期,要么是在2009年的经济复苏阶段。即使在2009年8月初之后,总市值与 GDP比率的同比变化超过了7%,上证综指也不再续创新高。在随后的几个月里,上证横盘震荡,直到2010年中国央行开始收紧货币政策后又开始下跌。因此,我们继续认为市场的机会在于价值轮动,或者说是市场内部结构的变化,而不是指数的绝对水平。图表 9:市场回报率、估值变化已达到历史高位资料来源:彭博,交银国际","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3930,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358251617,"gmtCreate":1616708861539,"gmtModify":1704797642083,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okie ","listText":"Okie ","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/358251617","repostId":"1100861784","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100861784","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616688028,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100861784?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-26 00:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reports indicate that Xiaohongshu has hired a CFO and is considering an IPO in the US.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100861784","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"中国科技企业走向公开市场的名单越来越长。最新为首次公开发行(ipo)打下基础的是类似Instagram的社交电子商务平台小红书。据知情人士透露,该公司最近聘请了一名首席财务官,并考虑最早于今年在美国上","content":"<p>The list of Chinese technology companies going public is getting longer and longer. The latest to lay the groundwork for an initial public offering (ipo) is Xiaohongshu, an Instagram-like social e-commerce platform. According to sources familiar with the matter, the company recently hired a chief financial officer and is considering a U.S. listing as early as this year.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reports indicate that Xiaohongshu has hired a CFO and is considering an IPO in the US.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReports indicate that Xiaohongshu has hired a CFO and is considering an IPO in the US.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-26 00:00</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The list of Chinese technology companies going public is getting longer and longer. The latest to lay the groundwork for an initial public offering (ipo) is Xiaohongshu, an Instagram-like social e-commerce platform. According to sources familiar with the matter, the company recently hired a chief financial officer and is considering a U.S. listing as early as this year.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac77203c1b9a3d0f3169b11b3a953a61","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100861784","content_text":"中国科技企业走向公开市场的名单越来越长。最新为首次公开发行(ipo)打下基础的是类似Instagram的社交电子商务平台小红书。据知情人士透露,该公司最近聘请了一名首席财务官,并考虑最早于今年在美国上市。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3997,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351010273,"gmtCreate":1616545128492,"gmtModify":1704795423596,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"okie","listText":"okie","text":"okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/351010273","repostId":"2121755434","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353928568,"gmtCreate":1616456941454,"gmtModify":1704794260727,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"okie","listText":"okie","text":"okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353928568","repostId":"2121510889","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2121510889","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616456389,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2121510889?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-23 07:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tencent Music's Q4 and full-year financial reports were strong, and its stock price once hit a new high in after-hours trading.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2121510889","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"盘前,市场对腾讯音乐娱乐集团即将发布的财报普遍感到乐观,助推了腾讯音乐股价的强劲表现,其盘中股价一度上冲至31.12美元,创下上市以来的新高,并报收于30.89美元。在腾讯音乐公布财报后,其盘后股价一度涨超2.14%,并创下31.55美元的历史新高。其中环比净增长为430万,付费率达9%,高于第三季度的8%和2019年同期的6.2%。","content":"<p>March 23 - After the US stock market closed on Monday, March 22,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>(TME.US) released its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2020.</p><p>Following the release of its financial report, its stock price rose by more than 2.14% in after-hours trading, reaching a record high of $31.55.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/205ce59be0c5db585c7e736c69dd28fb\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The financial report shows that the company's revenue in the fourth quarter was RMB 8.34 billion (US$1.28 billion), a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, compared with market expectations of RMB 8.334 billion and RMB 7.293 billion in the same period last year. Among them, online music service revenue increased by 29.0% year-on-year, higher than the 25.9% in the third quarter of 2020. Revenue from music subscription services was RMB 1.58 billion (US$242 million), representing a year-on-year increase of 41.9%. Advertising services recorded a year-on-year growth of over 100% in the fourth quarter of 2020.</p><p>Net profit attributable to shareholders of the company for the fourth quarter was RMB 1.2 billion (US$183 million), with earnings per ADS of RMB 0.71, compared to market expectations of RMB 0.68 and RMB 0.62 in the same period last year.</p><p>In the fourth quarter, the number of paying online music users reached 56 million, a year-on-year increase of 40.4%, and a net quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.3 million. The payment rate broke a historic 9%, higher than 8% in the third quarter and 6.2% in the same period of 2019.</p><p>It is worth noting that in the fourth quarter of 2020, the number of the company's long audio albums increased by 370% year-on-year, greatly enriching the long audio content pool; The penetration rate of long-form audio MAUs increased from 5.5% in the same period last year to 14.8%, and the average daily usage time of long-form audio users continued to grow.</p><p>Revenue for the full year of 2020 increased by 14.6% year-on-year to RMB 29.15 billion (US$4.47 billion), and net profit attributable to shareholders of the company for the full year of 2020 increased by 4.3% year-on-year to RMB 4.16 billion (US$637 million).</p><p>Mr. Peng Jiaxin, CEO of Tencent Music, said: “By investing in multiple music formats, we have further strengthened our content leadership and increased user engagement, which is reflected in the continuous growth of total user time on our platform. Our initial investment in long audio has begun to pay off, and in the fourth quarter of 2020, the penetration rate of long audio in our user base reached 15%, up from 6% in the same period last year.”</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tencent Music's Q4 and full-year financial reports were strong, and its stock price once hit a new high in after-hours trading.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTencent Music's Q4 and full-year financial reports were strong, and its stock price once hit a new high in after-hours trading.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-23 07:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>March 23 - After the US stock market closed on Monday, March 22,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>(TME.US) released its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2020.</p><p>Following the release of its financial report, its stock price rose by more than 2.14% in after-hours trading, reaching a record high of $31.55.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/205ce59be0c5db585c7e736c69dd28fb\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The financial report shows that the company's revenue in the fourth quarter was RMB 8.34 billion (US$1.28 billion), a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, compared with market expectations of RMB 8.334 billion and RMB 7.293 billion in the same period last year. Among them, online music service revenue increased by 29.0% year-on-year, higher than the 25.9% in the third quarter of 2020. Revenue from music subscription services was RMB 1.58 billion (US$242 million), representing a year-on-year increase of 41.9%. Advertising services recorded a year-on-year growth of over 100% in the fourth quarter of 2020.</p><p>Net profit attributable to shareholders of the company for the fourth quarter was RMB 1.2 billion (US$183 million), with earnings per ADS of RMB 0.71, compared to market expectations of RMB 0.68 and RMB 0.62 in the same period last year.</p><p>In the fourth quarter, the number of paying online music users reached 56 million, a year-on-year increase of 40.4%, and a net quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.3 million. The payment rate broke a historic 9%, higher than 8% in the third quarter and 6.2% in the same period of 2019.</p><p>It is worth noting that in the fourth quarter of 2020, the number of the company's long audio albums increased by 370% year-on-year, greatly enriching the long audio content pool; The penetration rate of long-form audio MAUs increased from 5.5% in the same period last year to 14.8%, and the average daily usage time of long-form audio users continued to grow.</p><p>Revenue for the full year of 2020 increased by 14.6% year-on-year to RMB 29.15 billion (US$4.47 billion), and net profit attributable to shareholders of the company for the full year of 2020 increased by 4.3% year-on-year to RMB 4.16 billion (US$637 million).</p><p>Mr. Peng Jiaxin, CEO of Tencent Music, said: “By investing in multiple music formats, we have further strengthened our content leadership and increased user engagement, which is reflected in the continuous growth of total user time on our platform. Our initial investment in long audio has begun to pay off, and in the fourth quarter of 2020, the penetration rate of long audio in our user base reached 15%, up from 6% in the same period last year.”</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06c120bbb961941a6910f63352c38f2b","relate_stocks":{"TME":"腾讯音乐"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2121510889","content_text":"3月23日讯,3月22日(周一)美股收盘后,腾讯音乐(TME.US)公布了2020年四季度及全年财报。公布财报后,其盘后股价一度涨超2.14%,并创下31.55美元的历史新高。财报显示,公司四季度营收为人民币83.4亿元(12.8亿美元),同比增长14.3%,市场预期83.34亿元,去年同期72.93亿元。其中,在线音乐服务收入同比增长29.0%,高于2020年第三季度的25.9%。音乐订阅服务收入为人民币15.8亿元(2.42亿美元),同比增长41.9%。广告服务在2020年第四季度录得超过100%的同比增长。四季度归属于公司股东的净利润为人民币12亿元(1.83亿美元),每ADS盈利0.71元,市场预期0.68元,去年同期0.62元。四季度在线音乐付费用户达到5600万,同比增长40.4%,环比净增长为430万,付费率历史性破9%,高于第三季度的8%和2019年同期的6.2%。值得注意的是,2020年第四季度,公司长音频专辑数量同比增长370%,极大丰富了长音频内容池;长音频MAU渗透率从去年同期的5.5%增长至14.8%,长音频用户日均使用时长持续增长。2020年全年收入同比增长14.6%至人民币291.5亿元(44.7亿美元),2020年全年归属于公司股东的净利润同比增长4.3%至人民币41.6亿元(6.37亿美元)。腾讯音乐首席执行官彭迦信先生表示:“通过投资多种格式的音乐类型,我们进一步加强了内容的领先性,提高了用户的参与度,这体现在用户在我们平台上的总使用时间的连续增长。我们最初在长音频方面的投资开始得到回报,2020年第四季度长音频在我们用户群中的渗透率达到15%,高于去年同期的6%。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4495,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359117830,"gmtCreate":1616373647320,"gmtModify":1704793146468,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okie ","listText":"Okie ","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359117830","repostId":"1145429048","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3793,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350792599,"gmtCreate":1616286506211,"gmtModify":1704792588016,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okie ","listText":"Okie ","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/350792599","repostId":"1119218309","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119218309","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616226176,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119218309?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-20 15:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Zhang Yidong: Growth core assets are expected to make a triumphant comeback in the second half of the year.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119218309","media":"红刊财经","summary":"后疫情时代,新型滞胀可能会成为常态,不同于70年代,现在体现为结构性资产泡沫。\n\n\n 我仍然坚定不移的看好港股,维持今年指数牛市的判断。A股或美股今年也不会出现大熊市,但更多以结构性行情为主。\n\n\n ","content":"<p>In the post-pandemic era, a new type of stagflation may become the norm, unlike in the 1970s, which is now manifested in structural asset bubbles. I remain firmly optimistic about Hong Kong stocks and maintain my judgment that the index is in a bull market this year. Neither A-shares nor US stocks will experience a major bear market this year, but the trend will be more structural. High-quality value stocks possess excellent defensive and counter-attacking strategies, while still facing a double whammy in terms of both performance and valuation. With the exit of speculative forces and the release of profits, core assets in the growth sector are expected to make a triumphant comeback in the second half of the year. Good companies will always be there. Since the beginning of 2016, I have continuously emphasized: \"Core assets are not afraid of falling, and they are not afraid of falling.\" Grouping together is not the problem. The problem is whether the relevant assets show greater value after the fall or whether it is a scam. After a year of the pandemic, many people have high hopes for 2021. Following the Spring Festival, global stock markets continued their periodic adjustment, and rising US long-term bond yields and liquidity tightening caused considerable anxiety among investors. With accelerated vaccination and a new round of 1.9 trillion yuan in fiscal stimulus, can the overseas economic recovery meet expectations? What investment opportunities lie ahead in the capital market in 2021?</p><p>On March 18, Zhang Yidong, Managing Director and Global Chief Strategist of Industrial Securities, delivered a keynote speech at the \"CAFR-Kaiyin Lecture Hall\" jointly organized by the China Financial Research Institute of Shanghai Jiao Tong University and the CAFR-Kaiyin Joint Research Laboratory, sharing his views on the above issues. In his view, there is no need to be overly sensitive to the rise in US long-term bond yields at this stage. As the pandemic gradually comes under control and supply and demand rebalance, inflation will not reach a persistent and vicious run out of control, and the global economic recovery will bring structural investment opportunities to the capital market.</p><p>When asked about his outlook for the capital market and specific investment opportunities, Zhang Yidong expressed his firm optimism about the long-term bull market in Hong Kong stocks, noting that the allocation of Chinese equity assets is still in full swing. On the one hand, high-quality cyclical assets are ushering in a good opportunity for style shift, and pro-cyclical leading companies with international pricing power and international competitiveness will benefit more. On the other hand, with the exit of speculative forces and the release of profits, core assets in the growth sector are expected to make a triumphant comeback in the second half of the year.</p><p><b>Economic recovery brings new \"troubles\"</b></p><p><b>Hyperinflation will not occur; a new type of stagflation may become the norm.</b></p><p>First, let's talk about the macroeconomy. First, let's talk about the troubles of economic recovery. These are two very interesting keywords: economic recovery and troubles. Economic recovery is a good thing, but the capital market has been quite apprehensive about it recently. There are concerns that the capital market may face downward risks due to trends such as economic recovery and a significant rise in long-term bond yields.</p><p>I believe we need to look at the essence from a fundamental perspective; there is no doubt that the economic fundamentals are positive. On the one hand, vaccination is accelerating; On the other hand, a new round of $1.9 trillion in fiscal stimulus in the United States has been approved; Furthermore, considering the low base in the second quarter of last year, we believe that the US economy is expected to experience a strong recovery in the coming months and even quarters. As residents' balance sheets recover, their willingness to consume is likely to increase, and service-oriented consumption, represented by transportation, as well as the entertainment industry such as accommodation and tourism, will have very strong room for recovery.</p><p>Second, will it lead to hyperinflation? My answer is no. Inflation is an inevitable product of economic recovery. Due to the combined effects of strong demand growth and last year's low base, the inflation rate may reach a peak in the second quarter, but it will not form a sustained rebound and cause hyperinflation. We believe that in the second half of this year, as the pandemic is brought under control, capacity utilization will gradually increase. Once effective demand is met to a certain extent and the supply relationship is rebalanced, US inflation may level off or even decline.</p><p>Third, we believe that US monetary policy will remain accommodative. The latest unemployment rate in the United States remains as high as 6.2%, far from the goal of full employment. Monetary easing is still underway, and the current excessive pessimism is actually a logical confusion caused by the rapid rise in US Treasury yields.</p><p>The recent rise in U.S. long-term bond yields is largely due to a temporary imbalance between supply and demand in the U.S. bond market, particularly the rapid decline in the holding ratio of overseas investors from nearly 50% to 34%. It is this change in holding structure that has led to the rise in its returns. This tactical factor remains within the Federal Reserve's control and does not constitute a source of trend-driven systemic risk. Therefore, once the mystery of rising US Treasury yields is solved, it becomes clear that investors are currently overly sensitive to US Treasury yields.</p><p>Fourth, in the post-pandemic era, a new type of stagflation may become the norm. From a medium-term perspective, the US recovery is a bright spot, but we also believe that a new type of stagflation may emerge. This stagflation will not be like the oil crisis and rising commodity prices caused by supply constraints in the 1970s. Instead, it will be a stagflation driven by insufficient demand, high debt, and excessive credit money issuance, manifesting as structural asset bubbles that coexist with low macroeconomic growth for a long time. In the internet age, where populism is rampant, European and American countries are more willing to spend money to buy time than social reform, hoping to solve problems through innovation and technological progress. The US dollar-dominated international monetary system is unlikely to collapse in the short term, and MMT's new monetary theory—fiscal deficit monetization—will remain effective. In the next 5-10 years of new stagflation, it is necessary to find the most important tool for preserving and increasing value within the structural asset bubble.</p><p><b>Global stock markets usher in a short-term rebound window, with style shifting to value.</b></p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks will maintain their bull market, while A-shares and US stocks will be dominated by structural factors.</b></p><p>In terms of the outlook for the capital market, the volatility index of US Treasury bonds has reached a relatively high level in history, reaching more than one standard deviation since 2016. Based on historical experience, we expect the US 10-year Treasury Bond yield to fluctuate periodically around 1.6% at this stage, forming a large platform. Correspondingly, global stock markets may see a rebound window between mid-to-late March and April. However, the latest core inflation data from the United States for May to June may exceed expectations, triggering another round of global stock market panic.</p><p>We believe that as early as the second quarter and as slow as the third quarter, with the easing of the overseas epidemic, the supply relationship of commodities will further improve in the second half of the year, and the market will gradually view the economic recovery with a calm attitude. At that time, the dominant factor in stock market volatility will become the opportunities brought about by the recovery, gradually replacing the current concerns about systemic risks. Therefore, in the short to medium term, global styles are shifting towards value styles, and assets that benefit from the strong recovery in Europe and the United States will perform better.</p><p>In the medium to long term, we are most optimistic about China's equity assets. On the one hand, foreign investment in China's equity assets is booming, and as China's economy enters a new stage of high quality, the strategic position of the capital market, which has far-reaching consequences in economic development, will become increasingly prominent. On the other hand, the policy of \"housing is for living in, not for speculation\" and the constraints on local government debt have led China's capital market to shift to a new stage driven by equity assets and the capital market.</p><p>First of all, I remain firmly optimistic about Hong Kong stocks and believe that they will maintain a bull market for the index this year. The Hong Kong stock market remains a global valuation hotspot, offering both inexpensive cyclical core assets and cost-effective consumer and pharmaceutical stocks, as well as leading growth industries such as the internet. Hong Kong's capital market is embracing China's new economy, adapting to new development trends, and gradually shedding its previous label of low valuations that have never risen. On the one hand, starting from September last year, stocks with dual-class shares and Chinese concept stocks that have returned to secondary listing have been included in the Hang Seng Index. On the other hand, the technology, consumer, and pharmaceutical sectors have become the dominant sectors of the Hong Kong main board market, accounting for more than 70% of the total market capitalization. With the adjustment of the index structure and more new economy companies listing in Hong Kong, we believe that the Hang Seng Index has the potential to replicate the trend of the US S&P 500 and embark on a long-term structural bull market.</p><p>Secondly, we do not believe that A-shares or US stocks will experience a major bear market this year, but rather a structural market trend, which can be described as \"half sea water and half fire\". On the one hand, growth stocks with relatively high valuations last year will experience a downturn and recover. On the other hand, cyclical core assets that benefit from the recovery and have strong profit elasticity will drive the market to form trend opportunities. The core driving force here is recovery, which brings not only growing pains but also valuable opportunities.</p><p>This year, US stocks have clearly seen a rebalancing between growth and value stocks. As long as US liquidity does not tighten more than expected this year, there is no systemic bear market in the US market. With continuous upward revisions to earnings forecasts and a healthy decline in dynamic P/E, the S&P 500's dynamic P/E has dropped from approximately 28 to 22 times since the beginning of the year, which is very evident.</p><p>As for the A-share market, we also believe that it should gradually absorb the impact of rising US Treasury yields and concerns about rising inflation as early as mid-March or as late as May or June, and bottom out and rebound. At that time, we can rationally face the economic recovery, pay more attention to the opportunities brought about by the improvement in profit fundamentals, and downplay the decline in risk appetite brought about by the systemic bear market.</p><p><b>High-quality value stocks present a double-boost opportunity for Savills in the first half of the year.</b></p><p><b>Growth core assets will make a triumphant return in the second half of the year.</b></p><p>Specifically, regarding investment opportunities. First, we believe that starting from mid-March, high-quality cyclical assets in both Hong Kong and A-shares are expected to keep pace with their US stock counterparts. Since November of last year, US stocks have begun to shift in style. High-quality cyclical assets related to economic recovery, such as energy finance, industry, and equipment, have seen significantly stronger gains than the \"hot bulls\" of the previous two years (technology, especially information technology, as well as medical and consumer staples). If the European and American economies continue to recover in the second quarter, the continued strength of value stocks in the US capital market will also drive a style shift in Hong Kong and A-shares.</p><p>Therefore, for Hong Kong stocks, high-quality value stocks have a good defensive and counter-attacking position, while still facing a double blow in terms of performance and valuation. Especially in the first half of this year, so-called deep value core assets have both relative and absolute returns. Industries such as finance, real estate, energy, and chemicals have dividend yields of 7% or even higher, and their financial results over the next two months can fully release catalysts for the market.</p><p>Secondly, one thing needs to be confirmed: this shift in style is different from previous \"coal and non-ferrous metals dance\" and \"large-scale easing of monetary policy in infrastructure and real estate\". Because this year's policies adhere to the principle that \"housing is for living in, not for speculation,\" and local government debt also needs to resolve existing risks, the impact on the real estate industry chain will not be as strong as in the past. This time, the style is more reflected in the two driving forces.</p><p>The primary driving force is the economic recovery in Europe and the This means that leading assets with international pricing power and international competitiveness will benefit more, rather than the effects of the entire sector. We need to look for alpha opportunities in beta industries. Not all cyclical industry companies can seize this opportunity; only the best core assets are more valuable.</p><p>The second driving force is changes on the supply side, namely carbon emissions and carbon peaking. From the perspective of domestic policy dividends, we are more focused on changes in industry structure than on the reassessment of style preferences or cyclical value from the demand side. Taking the steel industry as an example, some small, energy-intensive steel mills may eventually find it difficult to survive or be acquired by large steel mills. The same applies to coal and chemicals; this is a structural optimization, which can also be described as \"supply-side reform version 2.0\".</p><p>Understanding these points, let's look at this style shift. It's not about blindly buying cyclical stocks, nor is it about speculating on cyclical stocks with a speculative mentality. The key is to look at the fundamental logic, that is, to clearly understand these two core driving forces.</p><p>Finally, opportunities in core growth assets still have the potential to make a triumphant comeback in the second half of the year.</p><p>It should be noted that after two or even nearly three years of price increases, growth core assets need to face a period of \"recuperation\" in the first half of this year. The core assets that people are talking about now are more of a game logic. After fund managers raise funds, they will definitely invest in the companies they are most familiar with, thus forming a virtuous cycle over the past year or two. However, recently, all the positive factors have been fully reflected in the valuation. Once there is even the slightest disturbance and public sentiment dissipates, various funds will begin to face the situation of capital redemption and needing to sell stocks, which will inevitably lead to a decline in net asset value. As a result, even good assets will be devalued when this style shift occurs. Therefore, even though there are some high-quality growth core assets now, dynamic P/E or PS has become reasonable, but from the perspective of relative returns, it is still not good in the first half of this year. If there is an opportunity, select those alpha opportunities that exceed expectations. Such opportunities certainly exist, but they may belong more to professional institutional investors than to ordinary investors. Ordinary investors should actually seize a high probability.</p><p>In the second half of this year, financial reports will show good performance, and the dynamic valuation of these core assets will be very advantageous. At the same time, some speculative forces that sold have already liquidated their positions. That will present a good opportunity to invest in growth-oriented core assets. It was promised that the company would always be there. Since the beginning of 2016, I have continuously emphasized: \"Core assets are not afraid of falling, they are not afraid of falling.\" If the valuation of core assets is too high, they will definitely fall. Grouping together is not a problem. The problem is whether the relevant assets show greater value after the fall or whether it is a scam.</p>","source":"lsy1573825873635","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zhang Yidong: Growth core assets are expected to make a triumphant comeback in the second half of the year.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZhang Yidong: Growth core assets are expected to make a triumphant comeback in the second half of the year.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">红刊财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-20 15:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In the post-pandemic era, a new type of stagflation may become the norm, unlike in the 1970s, which is now manifested in structural asset bubbles. I remain firmly optimistic about Hong Kong stocks and maintain my judgment that the index is in a bull market this year. Neither A-shares nor US stocks will experience a major bear market this year, but the trend will be more structural. High-quality value stocks possess excellent defensive and counter-attacking strategies, while still facing a double whammy in terms of both performance and valuation. With the exit of speculative forces and the release of profits, core assets in the growth sector are expected to make a triumphant comeback in the second half of the year. Good companies will always be there. Since the beginning of 2016, I have continuously emphasized: \"Core assets are not afraid of falling, and they are not afraid of falling.\" Grouping together is not the problem. The problem is whether the relevant assets show greater value after the fall or whether it is a scam. After a year of the pandemic, many people have high hopes for 2021. Following the Spring Festival, global stock markets continued their periodic adjustment, and rising US long-term bond yields and liquidity tightening caused considerable anxiety among investors. With accelerated vaccination and a new round of 1.9 trillion yuan in fiscal stimulus, can the overseas economic recovery meet expectations? What investment opportunities lie ahead in the capital market in 2021?</p><p>On March 18, Zhang Yidong, Managing Director and Global Chief Strategist of Industrial Securities, delivered a keynote speech at the \"CAFR-Kaiyin Lecture Hall\" jointly organized by the China Financial Research Institute of Shanghai Jiao Tong University and the CAFR-Kaiyin Joint Research Laboratory, sharing his views on the above issues. In his view, there is no need to be overly sensitive to the rise in US long-term bond yields at this stage. As the pandemic gradually comes under control and supply and demand rebalance, inflation will not reach a persistent and vicious run out of control, and the global economic recovery will bring structural investment opportunities to the capital market.</p><p>When asked about his outlook for the capital market and specific investment opportunities, Zhang Yidong expressed his firm optimism about the long-term bull market in Hong Kong stocks, noting that the allocation of Chinese equity assets is still in full swing. On the one hand, high-quality cyclical assets are ushering in a good opportunity for style shift, and pro-cyclical leading companies with international pricing power and international competitiveness will benefit more. On the other hand, with the exit of speculative forces and the release of profits, core assets in the growth sector are expected to make a triumphant comeback in the second half of the year.</p><p><b>Economic recovery brings new \"troubles\"</b></p><p><b>Hyperinflation will not occur; a new type of stagflation may become the norm.</b></p><p>First, let's talk about the macroeconomy. First, let's talk about the troubles of economic recovery. These are two very interesting keywords: economic recovery and troubles. Economic recovery is a good thing, but the capital market has been quite apprehensive about it recently. There are concerns that the capital market may face downward risks due to trends such as economic recovery and a significant rise in long-term bond yields.</p><p>I believe we need to look at the essence from a fundamental perspective; there is no doubt that the economic fundamentals are positive. On the one hand, vaccination is accelerating; On the other hand, a new round of $1.9 trillion in fiscal stimulus in the United States has been approved; Furthermore, considering the low base in the second quarter of last year, we believe that the US economy is expected to experience a strong recovery in the coming months and even quarters. As residents' balance sheets recover, their willingness to consume is likely to increase, and service-oriented consumption, represented by transportation, as well as the entertainment industry such as accommodation and tourism, will have very strong room for recovery.</p><p>Second, will it lead to hyperinflation? My answer is no. Inflation is an inevitable product of economic recovery. Due to the combined effects of strong demand growth and last year's low base, the inflation rate may reach a peak in the second quarter, but it will not form a sustained rebound and cause hyperinflation. We believe that in the second half of this year, as the pandemic is brought under control, capacity utilization will gradually increase. Once effective demand is met to a certain extent and the supply relationship is rebalanced, US inflation may level off or even decline.</p><p>Third, we believe that US monetary policy will remain accommodative. The latest unemployment rate in the United States remains as high as 6.2%, far from the goal of full employment. Monetary easing is still underway, and the current excessive pessimism is actually a logical confusion caused by the rapid rise in US Treasury yields.</p><p>The recent rise in U.S. long-term bond yields is largely due to a temporary imbalance between supply and demand in the U.S. bond market, particularly the rapid decline in the holding ratio of overseas investors from nearly 50% to 34%. It is this change in holding structure that has led to the rise in its returns. This tactical factor remains within the Federal Reserve's control and does not constitute a source of trend-driven systemic risk. Therefore, once the mystery of rising US Treasury yields is solved, it becomes clear that investors are currently overly sensitive to US Treasury yields.</p><p>Fourth, in the post-pandemic era, a new type of stagflation may become the norm. From a medium-term perspective, the US recovery is a bright spot, but we also believe that a new type of stagflation may emerge. This stagflation will not be like the oil crisis and rising commodity prices caused by supply constraints in the 1970s. Instead, it will be a stagflation driven by insufficient demand, high debt, and excessive credit money issuance, manifesting as structural asset bubbles that coexist with low macroeconomic growth for a long time. In the internet age, where populism is rampant, European and American countries are more willing to spend money to buy time than social reform, hoping to solve problems through innovation and technological progress. The US dollar-dominated international monetary system is unlikely to collapse in the short term, and MMT's new monetary theory—fiscal deficit monetization—will remain effective. In the next 5-10 years of new stagflation, it is necessary to find the most important tool for preserving and increasing value within the structural asset bubble.</p><p><b>Global stock markets usher in a short-term rebound window, with style shifting to value.</b></p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks will maintain their bull market, while A-shares and US stocks will be dominated by structural factors.</b></p><p>In terms of the outlook for the capital market, the volatility index of US Treasury bonds has reached a relatively high level in history, reaching more than one standard deviation since 2016. Based on historical experience, we expect the US 10-year Treasury Bond yield to fluctuate periodically around 1.6% at this stage, forming a large platform. Correspondingly, global stock markets may see a rebound window between mid-to-late March and April. However, the latest core inflation data from the United States for May to June may exceed expectations, triggering another round of global stock market panic.</p><p>We believe that as early as the second quarter and as slow as the third quarter, with the easing of the overseas epidemic, the supply relationship of commodities will further improve in the second half of the year, and the market will gradually view the economic recovery with a calm attitude. At that time, the dominant factor in stock market volatility will become the opportunities brought about by the recovery, gradually replacing the current concerns about systemic risks. Therefore, in the short to medium term, global styles are shifting towards value styles, and assets that benefit from the strong recovery in Europe and the United States will perform better.</p><p>In the medium to long term, we are most optimistic about China's equity assets. On the one hand, foreign investment in China's equity assets is booming, and as China's economy enters a new stage of high quality, the strategic position of the capital market, which has far-reaching consequences in economic development, will become increasingly prominent. On the other hand, the policy of \"housing is for living in, not for speculation\" and the constraints on local government debt have led China's capital market to shift to a new stage driven by equity assets and the capital market.</p><p>First of all, I remain firmly optimistic about Hong Kong stocks and believe that they will maintain a bull market for the index this year. The Hong Kong stock market remains a global valuation hotspot, offering both inexpensive cyclical core assets and cost-effective consumer and pharmaceutical stocks, as well as leading growth industries such as the internet. Hong Kong's capital market is embracing China's new economy, adapting to new development trends, and gradually shedding its previous label of low valuations that have never risen. On the one hand, starting from September last year, stocks with dual-class shares and Chinese concept stocks that have returned to secondary listing have been included in the Hang Seng Index. On the other hand, the technology, consumer, and pharmaceutical sectors have become the dominant sectors of the Hong Kong main board market, accounting for more than 70% of the total market capitalization. With the adjustment of the index structure and more new economy companies listing in Hong Kong, we believe that the Hang Seng Index has the potential to replicate the trend of the US S&P 500 and embark on a long-term structural bull market.</p><p>Secondly, we do not believe that A-shares or US stocks will experience a major bear market this year, but rather a structural market trend, which can be described as \"half sea water and half fire\". On the one hand, growth stocks with relatively high valuations last year will experience a downturn and recover. On the other hand, cyclical core assets that benefit from the recovery and have strong profit elasticity will drive the market to form trend opportunities. The core driving force here is recovery, which brings not only growing pains but also valuable opportunities.</p><p>This year, US stocks have clearly seen a rebalancing between growth and value stocks. As long as US liquidity does not tighten more than expected this year, there is no systemic bear market in the US market. With continuous upward revisions to earnings forecasts and a healthy decline in dynamic P/E, the S&P 500's dynamic P/E has dropped from approximately 28 to 22 times since the beginning of the year, which is very evident.</p><p>As for the A-share market, we also believe that it should gradually absorb the impact of rising US Treasury yields and concerns about rising inflation as early as mid-March or as late as May or June, and bottom out and rebound. At that time, we can rationally face the economic recovery, pay more attention to the opportunities brought about by the improvement in profit fundamentals, and downplay the decline in risk appetite brought about by the systemic bear market.</p><p><b>High-quality value stocks present a double-boost opportunity for Savills in the first half of the year.</b></p><p><b>Growth core assets will make a triumphant return in the second half of the year.</b></p><p>Specifically, regarding investment opportunities. First, we believe that starting from mid-March, high-quality cyclical assets in both Hong Kong and A-shares are expected to keep pace with their US stock counterparts. Since November of last year, US stocks have begun to shift in style. High-quality cyclical assets related to economic recovery, such as energy finance, industry, and equipment, have seen significantly stronger gains than the \"hot bulls\" of the previous two years (technology, especially information technology, as well as medical and consumer staples). If the European and American economies continue to recover in the second quarter, the continued strength of value stocks in the US capital market will also drive a style shift in Hong Kong and A-shares.</p><p>Therefore, for Hong Kong stocks, high-quality value stocks have a good defensive and counter-attacking position, while still facing a double blow in terms of performance and valuation. Especially in the first half of this year, so-called deep value core assets have both relative and absolute returns. Industries such as finance, real estate, energy, and chemicals have dividend yields of 7% or even higher, and their financial results over the next two months can fully release catalysts for the market.</p><p>Secondly, one thing needs to be confirmed: this shift in style is different from previous \"coal and non-ferrous metals dance\" and \"large-scale easing of monetary policy in infrastructure and real estate\". Because this year's policies adhere to the principle that \"housing is for living in, not for speculation,\" and local government debt also needs to resolve existing risks, the impact on the real estate industry chain will not be as strong as in the past. This time, the style is more reflected in the two driving forces.</p><p>The primary driving force is the economic recovery in Europe and the This means that leading assets with international pricing power and international competitiveness will benefit more, rather than the effects of the entire sector. We need to look for alpha opportunities in beta industries. Not all cyclical industry companies can seize this opportunity; only the best core assets are more valuable.</p><p>The second driving force is changes on the supply side, namely carbon emissions and carbon peaking. From the perspective of domestic policy dividends, we are more focused on changes in industry structure than on the reassessment of style preferences or cyclical value from the demand side. Taking the steel industry as an example, some small, energy-intensive steel mills may eventually find it difficult to survive or be acquired by large steel mills. The same applies to coal and chemicals; this is a structural optimization, which can also be described as \"supply-side reform version 2.0\".</p><p>Understanding these points, let's look at this style shift. It's not about blindly buying cyclical stocks, nor is it about speculating on cyclical stocks with a speculative mentality. The key is to look at the fundamental logic, that is, to clearly understand these two core driving forces.</p><p>Finally, opportunities in core growth assets still have the potential to make a triumphant comeback in the second half of the year.</p><p>It should be noted that after two or even nearly three years of price increases, growth core assets need to face a period of \"recuperation\" in the first half of this year. The core assets that people are talking about now are more of a game logic. After fund managers raise funds, they will definitely invest in the companies they are most familiar with, thus forming a virtuous cycle over the past year or two. However, recently, all the positive factors have been fully reflected in the valuation. Once there is even the slightest disturbance and public sentiment dissipates, various funds will begin to face the situation of capital redemption and needing to sell stocks, which will inevitably lead to a decline in net asset value. As a result, even good assets will be devalued when this style shift occurs. Therefore, even though there are some high-quality growth core assets now, dynamic P/E or PS has become reasonable, but from the perspective of relative returns, it is still not good in the first half of this year. If there is an opportunity, select those alpha opportunities that exceed expectations. Such opportunities certainly exist, but they may belong more to professional institutional investors than to ordinary investors. Ordinary investors should actually seize a high probability.</p><p>In the second half of this year, financial reports will show good performance, and the dynamic valuation of these core assets will be very advantageous. At the same time, some speculative forces that sold have already liquidated their positions. That will present a good opportunity to invest in growth-oriented core assets. It was promised that the company would always be there. Since the beginning of 2016, I have continuously emphasized: \"Core assets are not afraid of falling, they are not afraid of falling.\" If the valuation of core assets is too high, they will definitely fall. Grouping together is not a problem. The problem is whether the relevant assets show greater value after the fall or whether it is a scam.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/U2YOzF67EledEPO97VzzOg\">红刊财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc1f5e2fa377c378fa230c10e0849a2","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","HSI":"恒生指数","000001.SH":"上证指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/U2YOzF67EledEPO97VzzOg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119218309","content_text":"后疫情时代,新型滞胀可能会成为常态,不同于70年代,现在体现为结构性资产泡沫。\n\n\n 我仍然坚定不移的看好港股,维持今年指数牛市的判断。A股或美股今年也不会出现大熊市,但更多以结构性行情为主。\n\n\n 优质的价值股正具备很好的防守反击布局点,同时在业绩和估值方面依然面临着双击。\n\n\n 成长领域核心资产随着博弈力量出局和盈利释放,有希望在下半年王者归来。\n\n\n 好公司它是永远在那里的,我2016年初至今持续强调:“核心资产不怕跌、跌不怕”,抱团不是问题,问题是下跌之后相关资产表现出来的是价值更大还是骗局。\n\n在经历了一年的疫情考验后,许多人对2021年寄予厚望。春节过后,全球股市持续阶段性调整,宏观经济上美国长期债券收益率上行和流动性收紧使得投资者产生比较大的焦虑。在疫苗加速接种和新一轮1.9万亿财政大刺激的前提下,海外经济复苏是否能达到预期?2021年资本市场蕴藏着哪些投资机会?\n3月18日,兴业证券董事总经理、全球首席策略师张忆东在由上海交通大学中国金融研究院、CAFR-凯银联合研究实验室联合举办的《CAFR-凯银大讲堂》上进行了主题演讲,针对上述问题分享了他的观点。在他看来,现阶段无需对美国长债收益率的上升过于敏感,随着疫情逐步得到控制,供需关系达到再平衡,通胀不会达成持续性恶性失控,全球经济复苏将为资本市场带来结构性投资机会。\n提及对资本市场的展望和具体投资机会,张忆东表示坚定看好港股长期牛市,配置中国权益资产方兴未艾。一方面,周期类优质资产迎来风格切换的布局良机,具有国际定价权及国际竞争力的顺周期龙头受益更多;另一方面,随着博弈力量出局和盈利释放,成长领域核心资产有希望在下半年王者归来。\n经济复苏带来新“烦恼”\n恶性通胀不会发生 新型滞胀或成为常态\n首先谈谈宏观经济。第一,我们先谈论一下经济复苏的烦恼。这是很有意思的两个关键词,一个是经济复苏,另外一个是烦恼。经济复苏是个好事,但最近资本市场对这个好事比较忐忑。担心会不会伴随着经济复苏、长债利率上行显著等趋势性力量,资本市场面临趋势性下行风险。\n我认为需要从基本面逻辑来看本质,毫无疑问经济基本面是向好的。一方面,疫苗接种在加速;另一方面,美国新一轮的1.9万亿美元财政大刺激已经获批;此外,再考虑到去年二季度的低基数,我们认为未来几个月甚至是未来几个季度,美国经济有望迎来阶段性的强复苏。随着居民资产负债表修复,居民消费意愿也将大概率提升,以交通运输为代表的服务型消费,包括住宿、旅游等娱乐行业修复的空间会非常强大。\n第二,会不会带来恶性的通胀?我的答案是不会。通胀是经济复苏的必然产物,受到需求增长强烈和去年低基数的共同作用,二季度通胀率可能会达到一个峰值,但是并不会形成持续性反弹,造成恶性通胀。那么我们认为在今年的下半年,随着疫情得到控制,产能利用率也会逐步提升,一旦有效需求得到一定的满足,供给关系再平衡之后,可能美国的通胀会走平,甚至是有所回落。\n第三,我们认为美国货币政策依然会维持宽松。美国最新的失业率依然高达6.2%,离充分就业目标还很远。货币政策的放水依然还在路上,目前大家过度悲观其实是美债收益率上行过快所引发的逻辑混乱。\n近期美国长债收益率的上行更多是因为阶段性的美国债券市场的供求关系的失衡所引发的,特别是海外投资者持有比例从近50%快速下降到了34%。是这种持有结构的变化导致了其收益率的上行。这一战术性因素,仍是美联储可控范围内的,不构成趋势性系统风险的源泉。因此,当美债收益率的上行之谜解开之后,就能够知道目前投资者对美债收益率的关注过度敏感了。\n第四,后疫情时代,新型滞胀可能会成为常态。从中期的角度来说,美国复苏是个亮点,但是我们也相信说有可能会出现新型滞胀。这种滞胀不会像上世纪70年代供给受限导致石油危机、大宗商品价格上涨一样,而是需求不足、高债务、信用货币超发所驱动的滞涨,体现为结构性的资产泡沫,与宏观经济的低增长长期共存。民粹主义盛行的互联网时代,比起社会改革,欧美国家更愿意花钱来买时间,希望通过创新和科技进步来解决问题。美元主导的国际货币体系短期内还不会崩盘,MMT新货币理论——财政赤字货币化将持续有效。那么在未来5-10年新型滞胀的大时代,需要在结构性的资产泡沫中寻找一个在最重要的保值增值工具。\n全球股市短期迎来反弹窗口,风格转向价值\n港股将维持指数牛市 A股美股以结构性为主\n就资本市场的展望来说,由于美债波动率的指数已经到了一个历史上的相对高位,达到了2016年以来的一倍标准差上方。根据历史经验,我们预期美国10年期国债收益率在现阶段的1.6%左右会阶段性震荡,形成一个大的平台。对应的,全球股市在3月中下旬到4月份之间可能会迎来一个反弹时间窗口,但是,5月至6月美国最新的核心通胀数据有可能超预期,从而引发又一次的全球股市恐慌情绪。\n我们认为,快则二季度,慢则的三季度,随着海外疫情的缓解,下半年大宗商品供给关系将进一步改善,市场将慢慢的以平常心来看待经济复苏。届时,股市波动的主导因素就将变成复苏带来的机会,逐步替代现阶段对于系统性风险的担忧。所以,中短期全球的风格转向以价值风格主导,受益于欧美复苏力度大的资产表现会更好。\n中长期我们最看好中国的权益资产,一方面,外资配置中国权益资产方兴未艾,随着中国经济开始高质量的新阶段,资本市场在经济发展中牵一发而动全身的这个战略地位会越来越凸显。另一方面,房住不炒政策以及对于地方债务的约束,都使得中国资本市场开始转向以权益资产、资本市场驱动的一个新阶段。\n首先,我仍然坚定不移的看好港股,认为它今年会维持指数牛市。港股市场仍是全球估值洼地,既有便宜的周期性的核心资产,同时也有性价比较好的消费、医药,及以互联网为代表的成长性行业龙头。香港资本市场正在拥抱中国新经济,顺应发展新趋势,逐步摆脱原先估值低却始终不上涨的这个标签。一方面,从去年9月份开始,同股不同权的、中概股回归二次上市的股票,纷纷被纳入到恒生指数。另一方面,科技、消费、医药这三个板块已经成为了香港主板市场的主导性板块,占整个市值比例超过了7成。伴随着指数结构的调整以及更多的新经济公司来到香港上市,我们认为未来恒生指数有希望复制美国标普500的走势,走出结构性的长牛。\n其次,我们也不认为 A股或美股今年会出现大的熊市,只是更多的会呈现出结构性行情,可以说是“一半海水一半火焰”。一方面,去年估值比较高的成长股会遇冷休养生息;另一方面,受益于复苏且盈利具有较强弹性的周期类核心资产,会驱动着行情形成趋势性机会。这里的核心的驱动力是复苏,复苏不仅带来成长的烦恼,同时也带来价值的机会。\n美股今年明显是成长股和价值股之间的再平衡。只要今年美国流动性不是超预期的收紧,那么美国市场不存在系统性的熊市。随着盈利预测不断上调,动态市盈率在持续良性的下降,标普500动态市盈率自年初以来已经从大概28倍降到了22倍,体现的非常明显。\n至于A股市场,我们也认为,快则三月中,慢则五六月应该会逐步消化美债收益率上行的冲击、通胀上行的担忧,见底回升。届时可以理性面对经济复苏,更加关注于盈利基本面的改善所带来的机会,而淡化系统性熊市所带来的风险偏好的下降。\n上半年优质价值股存戴维斯双击机会\n下半年成长型核心资产将王者归来\n具体到投资机会上。第一,我们认为从3月中旬开始,无论是港股还是A股,周期类的优质资产有望跟上美股同行的节奏。从去年11月份开始,美股已经开始了风格切换,与经济复苏相关的周期类优质资产,如能源金融、工业、设备等行业,涨幅表现明显强于前两年的“当红炸子鸡”(科技,特别是信息技术行业,以及医疗、必需消费品等行业)。如果二季度欧美经济持续复苏,那么美国资本市场价值股持续走强,也会带动港股 A股的风格切换。\n所以对港股而言,优质的价值股正具备很好的防守反击布局点,同时在业绩和估值方面依然面临着双击。尤其是今年上半年,所谓的深度价值型(deep value)核心资产,既具有相对收益,也具有绝对收益。其中像金融、地产,能源、化工这些行业有7%甚至更高的分红收益率,未来两个月财报业绩也能够给市场充分释放催化剂。\n第二,有一点要确认,这一次的风格切换和以往的“煤飞色舞”、“基建房地产大放水”有所不同。因为今年政策上坚持房住不炒,地方债务上也要化解存量风险,对于房地产产业链的推动不会像以往那么强烈,这一次的风格更多地体现在两个动力源。\n第一动力是欧美经济复苏。这代表着受益更多的会是具有国际定价权的及国际竞争力的龙头资产,而不是整个板块的效应。需要从贝塔行业里面寻找阿尔法机会,不是说所有的周期性行业公司都能抓住这个机会,只有最优秀的核心资产才更具价值。\n第二动力是供给端的变化,也就是碳排放和碳达峰。从国内政策红利的角度来说,我们更多关注的是行业结构的变化,而不是从需求端看风格偏好或周期价值的重估。拿钢铁行业举个例子,可能一些高能耗的小钢铁厂最终就会难以坚持或被大钢厂并购。煤炭、化工也是如此,这是一种结构的优化,也可以说是“供给侧改革2.0版”。\n了解这些我们再看这次的风格切换,并不是说闭着眼睛去随便买周期股,也不能以投机心理去炒作周期股。关键的还是要看基本面逻辑,也就是看清楚这两大核心驱动力。\n最后,成长领域核心资产的机会依然有希望在下半年王者归来。\n需要注意的是,成长型核心资产在经过了过去两年甚至将近三年的上涨之后,在今年上半年需要面临一段时间的“休养生息”。现在大家讲的核心资产更多是一个博弈的逻辑,基金经理募集到资金后,肯定是会投到自己最熟悉的公司,由此在过去的这一两年时间里形成良性循环。但是最近一段时间以来,所有的利多因素都已经充分反映到估值里,一旦有些“风吹草动”,人心散掉,各类基金就开始面临资金赎回、需要卖出股票的境况,这必然带来净值的回落。由此引发的结果就是,即使是好资产标的,在这种风格切换发生的时候也会被杀估值。所以即便现在有一些优质的成长型核心资产,动态市盈率或PS已经趋于合理了,但是从相对回报率的角度来说,在今年上半年依然是不好的。如果说有机会就精选那些业绩超预期的阿尔法的机会。这种机会肯定是有,但这种机会可能更加属于专业的机构投资者,而并不是对于普通投资者,普通投资者要把握的其实是个大概率。\n到了今年下半年,财报数据带来好的业绩体现,这些核心资产的动态估值将非常有优势,同时一些卖出的博弈型力量都已清仓出局了。那个时候将迎来成长型核心资产的布局良机。说好公司它是永远在那里的,我,我2016年初至今持续强调:“核心资产不怕跌、跌不怕”,真正核心资产估值太贵的话肯定也是会跌的,抱团不是问题,问题是下跌之后相关资产表现出来的是价值更大还是骗局。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}