To The Moon

Since its the weekend Sunday, I thought I will post a more introspective piece as I gather my thoughts with “end” of April in sight. Away from relying on Moving averages (ma), Relative strength index (RSI), xxx etc what can we sense ? Needless to say, the US market has been on a roller coaster ride since the beginning of 2023; especially in Mar 2023 with the banking sector debacle in full play. Using S&P 500 as the "model" index From the above diagram, its “amazing” how quickly the composite index “recovered” from the banking fiasco and has trended upwards since. Any newbies entering the US market for the first time would’ve been fooled by such resilient recovery except that it is really not so, if we scratch just a bit deeper. (1) US Inflation With the latest official data / report de

Recent problems in the US and Swiss banking systems have led markets to sharply cut interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve. In just a few weeks, traders have changed from expecting four rate hike to wondering whether the Fed will continue its rate hike or even cut interest rates as soon as this summer (Figure 1).SOFR futures curve on March 24th and March 8thFigure 1: Interest rate expectations have changed dramatically in the past few weeksThe sharp change in interest rate expectations is good for gold. Gold is a de facto currency, and almost every major central bank has a large reserve of gold. However, gold is a non-interest-bearing currency. Therefore, when rate hike expectations are formed, gold prices tend to weaken. In fact, since the end of 2021, because investors' expec

Please find and follow my YT channel (nerdbull1669) for Daily SG and US Stock Watchlist. Do follow me as I share quality stock pick for Daily Watchlist. Next Week (24-28 April) is filled with mega stocks Q1 2023 earnings reports from companies including Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN), as well as Coca-Cola (KO), PepsiCo, McDonald’s, Boeing, Exxon and Chevron. I am more interested to look at the Fed preferred measure of inflation, the Core PCE Price Index for March. It is widely expected to fall to 4.6% in March from 4.7% in February. If that happen, it would be the lowest reading recorded in 16 months. I would like to explore 2 scenarios where the actual value might be different from what is expected based on what we have seen in Jan and Feb 2023. Past Cor

The saying "Sell in May and Go Away" is a well-known phrase in the US stock market, which implies that the performance of the US stock market from November to April, during the half-year period, tends to be better than the performance from May to October during the other half-year period. Some people attribute this calendar effect to the impact of the mid-April deadline for US individual income tax filing, while others believe it is because most fund managers tend to be more aggressive in investing at year-end and year-beginning, and prefer to take vacations during the middle of the year. So, is this saying really true? Let's look at the objective data.1. Is the "Sell in May" true in US stock market? The chart below shows historical data from nearly 40 years (1985-2022) of the three major