To The Moon

Since its the weekend Sunday, I thought I will post a more introspective piece as I gather my thoughts with “end” of April in sight. Away from relying on Moving averages (ma), Relative strength index (RSI), xxx etc what can we sense ? Needless to say, the US market has been on a roller coaster ride since the beginning of 2023; especially in Mar 2023 with the banking sector debacle in full play. Using S&P 500 as the "model" index From the above diagram, its “amazing” how quickly the composite index “recovered” from the banking fiasco and has trended upwards since. Any newbies entering the US market for the first time would’ve been fooled by such resilient recovery except that it is really not so, if we scratch just a bit deeper. (1) US Inflation With the latest official data / report de

Recent problems in the US and Swiss banking systems have led markets to sharply cut interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve. In just a few weeks, traders have changed from expecting four rate hike to wondering whether the Fed will continue its rate hike or even cut interest rates as soon as this summer (Figure 1).SOFR futures curve on March 24th and March 8thFigure 1: Interest rate expectations have changed dramatically in the past few weeksThe sharp change in interest rate expectations is good for gold. Gold is a de facto currency, and almost every major central bank has a large reserve of gold. However, gold is a non-interest-bearing currency. Therefore, when rate hike expectations are formed, gold prices tend to weaken. In fact, since the end of 2021, because investors' expec

$Summit Materials(SUM)$ is a US construction materials company. As can be seen from the chart, it had achieved considerable growth over the past 8 years. SUM Product Revenue Trends You could be forgiven for thinking that this is a growth stock. It is not. Revenue growth was due to acquisitions that benefited from being in the uptrend part of the construction cycle. Revenue growth did not translate into better operating performance. Without the one-off gains, current ROE would be in single digits. The market is pricing SUM as if it was a growth stock. The market is wrong. I am a long-term value investor looking for opportunities due to mispricing. SUM is not one of them. If you want more value investing insights, visit my blog at i4value.asia,

SummaryAlphabet and Meta are two giants in highly competitive markets, both with their specific risk