To The Moon

Trump will focus on Tax cuts, deportation and tariffs. Others aspects such as trimming government debts and changes in federal reserve will most likely see more in 2026.  Market has rallied 5% within days marking the best gain for this year with Russell 2000 breaking new high. Investors are pricing in tax cut policy on businesses and individuals, mainly big gains on small and medium business in Dow Jones hasn't perform since 2021. We may see market to continue rally until official presidential seating in Jan.  We might see higher unemployment numbers, Biden has created huge jobs growth during the tenture allowing foreign migrants workers boosting economy and business allowing lower labor cost, with mass deportation It doesn't seems to be very positive in the short term. 

Recently market has falls to its worst week in 2024. Investors are watching the yield curve inversing to positive rate. Each instances the yield curve inverted US economy falls into recession eventually and recent non farm payroll and unemployment rates beat expectation which expecting yield curve falls below negative territory but payroll for Jun and Jul data was revised to lower payroll results, pushing yield lower which resulted yield curve returning all time highs since 2022.  Investors are wary on the future of the US economy as yield curve may push the market lower. Although the current data have weaken it's nowhere near recessionary data, market may not have strength during this period. Market will shows strength once yield curve falls. Wednesday inflation data may be the key.&

Over the past few days market has been dropping to lower low. Market has not seen -2% in SPY since March 2023. Fears linger in the economy as earning may not meet expectation in the upcoming earning release and poor European nation economy data. US GDP annouce better GDP growth and shed light on investor on economy recession may not be be here. Rate cut expectation may push further into later year which mean risk on stocks will benefit. Expecting$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  to be reversing before big cap tech earning release next week. Offloading my put option on $CRWD 20240802 250.0 PUT$ and buy call option

$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$  How low the stock price can it be?  This stock has raise 65% YTD since the beginning of 2024. Initial price at $251 to $371 peak, currently the YTD is at $264. The stock remain positive YTD but with uncertainty of this stock, I believe stock price will continue fall to negative YTD as nobody knows what this company lies ahead. It may takes months or year once the dust settles. I will be offloading $CRWD 20240726 250.0 PUT$ at roll over to $CRWD 20240802 250.0 PUT$ with profits. My tarprice would be around $235-$240 range to offload my options. It's better to safeguard cash as

$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$  It's was a good stock with great future guidance but today incident has hit this great potential company hard. Company will face major lawsuit from Airlines, IT companies, Banks, Transportation company. The outlook of this company turned within a day. I wouldn't jump buying the company until lawsuit are over. Cyber security stocks gain massively from this downfall of this company. Will try some put option next week expiration $CRWD 20240726 250.0 PUT$  Will see how it works out   $Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$ $SentinelOne, Inc(S)$ 

$ProShares Strategy(BITI)$ $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ $ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF(BITO)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$    The recent market has hit ATH as trader are convince rate cut will occur in June. Recent data shows high PCE and strong labour force. Oil has increase due to recent conflict which suggest higher inflation is notgoing away anytime soon. Rate cut are delayed later of this year and suggest would be 3 rate cut instead of 4. Market has priced in 4 rate cut this year and rebalancing on price action will occur. Bitcoin has reached ATH last month and monthl

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US bond future showing signs of strength with major push up due to failure of banks andgiant credit suisse. US 2y Bond future RSI has rarely hit above 70 points and only happen in 2008, 2018 and 2020. Bond are safe haven assets with sudden spike will cause turmoil in the market. Looking back to 2008, 2018 and 2020 bond future prices can spike quickly within month or so. I believe the treasury, FDIC and federal reserve will stabilise the banking sector coming month before unrealises losses in financial sector starting to show in Q4 to early 2024.  As for now I'm extremely bearish with the market not so much on the tech sector. The additional lending program is only a cushion on affected banks and FDIC insured $250k for mid size bank only to hold of bank runs. We hav

US 10y and 2y bond could fall off very quickly during stressful financial conditions. This could be very similar to 2008 crisis when bond prices pick up market could rally strongly and volatile. Sentimental is extremely bearish in the long term as we may see banks andfinancial institutions starting to fail with CDS raising. Federal Reserve have introduce lending program to cushion impact but if Wednesday rate hike by 0.25 or more would send bond to fall again. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$