To The Moon

$ProShares Strategy(BITI)$ $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ $ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF(BITO)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$    The recent market has hit ATH as trader are convince rate cut will occur in June. Recent data shows high PCE and strong labour force. Oil has increase due to recent conflict which suggest higher inflation is notgoing away anytime soon. Rate cut are delayed later of this year and suggest would be 3 rate cut instead of 4. Market has priced in 4 rate cut this year and rebalancing on price action will occur. Bitcoin has reached ATH last month and monthl

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US bond future showing signs of strength with major push up due to failure of banks andgiant credit suisse. US 2y Bond future RSI has rarely hit above 70 points and only happen in 2008, 2018 and 2020. Bond are safe haven assets with sudden spike will cause turmoil in the market. Looking back to 2008, 2018 and 2020 bond future prices can spike quickly within month or so. I believe the treasury, FDIC and federal reserve will stabilise the banking sector coming month before unrealises losses in financial sector starting to show in Q4 to early 2024.  As for now I'm extremely bearish with the market not so much on the tech sector. The additional lending program is only a cushion on affected banks and FDIC insured $250k for mid size bank only to hold of bank runs. We hav

US 10y and 2y bond could fall off very quickly during stressful financial conditions. This could be very similar to 2008 crisis when bond prices pick up market could rally strongly and volatile. Sentimental is extremely bearish in the long term as we may see banks andfinancial institutions starting to fail with CDS raising. Federal Reserve have introduce lending program to cushion impact but if Wednesday rate hike by 0.25 or more would send bond to fall again. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ 

This week Federal Reserve testimony and NFP report will bring volatility in the market. Risk reward for upside is low with VIX relativity low. S&P resistant at 4770, we will see some pull back until Federal Reserve testimony. Chances of rate hike to 50bps is higher as labor market shows great strength with inflation persist. Sold calls and bought puts. $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ 

Recent market falls is due to growing rate hike from Federal Reserve commitee members. As 50 bps rate hike is needed mention by both non-voting and voting members. Interest rate hike will be schedule on March 15-16th FOMC meeting. Tomorrow will release FOMC minutes, I believe Federal Reserve will look into February NFP report before considering 50bps rate hike. NFP and inflation data will tend to lag for a few months. Will load some calls based on VIX and DXY meeting 200 MA.  $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund(UUP)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ 

Inflation still remain elevated which may open more rate hike or delaying rate cut. DXY holding strong may give more boost on the jobless claim tomorrow. Not a great outlook week. $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund(UUP)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 

The current situation in the market is unstable with treasury yield curve lowest since 1980s. Investors are fearful with recession warning signal, pushing market lower. Federal Reserve member are sure able to get soft landing but market barely pushing higher. Investors are waiting for CPI print next week. Whenever in doubt take a break and re-evaluate. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund(UUP)$ 

Huge surprise in payroll and unemployment rate which is uncalled of. We might see a downturn until CPI data on 14th Feb. Federal Reserve committee members speech next week. NFP data has shown federal reserve have more room for rate hike if inflation data still persist we may see same scenario in 2022. DXY raising due to strong job numbers and wages not pretty in the short run. Taken call option profit. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund(UUP)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$