To The Moon

This Week’s Macro ThemeNovember employment data showed the U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly rising to 4.6%. While still low by historical standards, this marks the highest level since early 2021. Under the current macro pricing framework, a moderate softening in labor data is paradoxically viewed as positive by markets.The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75% this week, in line with market expectations. This move lifts Japanese interest rates to their highest level in 30 years and marks the first rate hike in 11 months since January 2025, signaling continued progress toward policy normalization. While the pace remains gradual, the shift has created marginal disruptions to global capital flows and carry trades.U.S. stocks sold off sharply on Wednesday, but rebounded on

Macro Highlights This WeekThe December FOMC delivered a widely expected 25bp rate cut and announced roughly USD 40bn in short-term Treasury purchases to replenish system reserves. However, the market’s real focus was not the policy action itself, but Chair Powell’s rare admission that current job growth may be “systematically overstated.”The latest dot plot shows a sharply widened divergence in views on the 2026 rate path. While the median still points to one 25bp cut, the range now spans from no cuts to as much as 150bp of easing, highlighting a lack of consensus among policymakers on the economic outlook.At the corporate level, Oracle’s earnings triggered the market’s first broad-based concern over AI capex returns. Weak cloud revenue combined with sharply higher capital spending drove t

Macro HighlightsIn Japan, Governor Ueda successfully persuaded the Prime Minister to agree to a 25bp rate hike to 0.75% in December, marking the official end of Japan’s ultra-low interest rate era. With the potential retracement of the trillion-dollar yen carry trade, markets are concerned about spillover risks. However, since this coincides with the Fed’s pause in rate cuts, the impact is expected to be less severe than the 2022 year-end “carry trade plunge.”In the US, the Fed officially ended balance sheet reduction on Monday, signaling a key shift in liquidity direction. Markets widely expect the next FOMC to announce a Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) program, potentially starting $35B/month of short-term bond purchases from January, indicating a policy shift from “draining” to “injec

Big-Tech’s PerformanceMacro Headlines This Week:Core inflation re-accelerated but with nuanceUS October core PCE rose 2.8% y/y – still above the Fed’s 2% target – yet the month-on-month pace eased. Services inflation, driven partly by surging portfolio-management fees tied to earlier equity gains, was the key driver.Fed policy path remains the biggest wildcardThe US economy shows resilience alongside hidden cracks. Markets are increasingly focused on the $6.7 tn of Treasuries maturing in 2025–2026 (≈25% of the outstanding marketable debt). Combined with potential expansionary fiscal policy under a second Trump administration, deficit concerns are rising. CICC estimates suggest meaningful deficit reduction will be difficult in a “Trump 2.0” scenario. Any shift in Treasury issuance mix could

Global IT infrastructure giant $Dell Technologies Inc.(DELL)$ has released its financial results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026. Overall, driven by surging demand for AI servers, the company delivered another record-breaking performance: revenue, EPS, and AI order volume all hit all-time highs. However, behind these impressive figures, uncertainties stemming from rising supply chain costs and overheated demand have begun to surface.Revenue hits record high, driven by AI but with deepening structural dependenceTotal revenue for the quarter reached $27 billion, marking an 11% year-over-year increase and setting a new Q3 record. Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) delivered particularly strong performance, with revenue hitting $14.1 billi

Over the past 48 hours, one of the biggest stories in the entire AI sector has been the explosive move in Google-related assets. $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ / $Alphabet(GOOG)$ shares ripped higher by more than 6% in regular trading and tacked on another ~2% after-hours on reports that Meta is in talks for a massive multi-billion-dollar TPU order. Meanwhile, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ and $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ barely budged — a stark contrast to what we usually see when AI hype hits.This isn’t being driven by a single headline. It’s the culmination of several developments that are forcing the market to completely re-price the cost stru

The memory sector's performance last week continued to polarize the market: bulls firmly believe HBM is ushering in a new profit cycle, while skeptics argue spot price gains for DRAM/NAND have clearly deviated from fundamentals, resembling the bubble phase seen in 2017–18.I lean toward the opposite of the latter view: Prices are indeed overheated, but the core drivers stem from genuine structural shifts in supply and demand, not speculation.How should I express it?DRAM spot prices rose 5% week-over-week (16Gb DDR4 surged 9% to $37.5), hitting a 25-year high; NAND spot prices climbed even more sharply, with 1Tb/512Gb/256Gb rising 15-22%. Despite thin trading volumes, supply shortages drove up inventory replenishment demand. NVIDIA's Oct-Q revenue reached $5.7 billion (Data Center: $5.1 bill

Week after week, the AI technology investment landscape is undergoing unprecedented rapid transformation, akin to the time dilation scenes in Interstellar—where one hour in tech investing equates to seven years in the $S&P 500 ETF (SPY)$ market. The launch of Gemini 3 has become a pivotal event recently shaking up the AI industry, not only reshaping the competitive landscape but also compelling investors to reassess market logic and strategic positioning.Gemini 3 Reshapes the AI Competitive LandscapeThe launch of Gemini 3 marks the AI industry's official departure from its previous phase of homogeneous competition, ushering in a new era of differentiated competition. This model delivered outstanding performance in benchmark tests, with exceptional

Big-Tech’s PerformanceMacro Headlines This Week:A flood of delayed economic data finally hit the markets, while clear divisions emerged inside the Fed on whether to cut rates again in December. Confidence in a "soft landing" took a hit, and US stocks swung wildly. The early "Trump trade" euphoria gave way to sober reality: the end of the government shutdown unleashed the data backlog, but the numbers were soft + Fed hawkishness escalated, completely shattering the near-certainty of a December rate cut.The Fed's policy path is now the biggest source of uncertainty. The minutes from the October FOMC meeting (released Nov 19-20) revealed obvious splits on a December move. The delayed September jobs report (finally out on Nov 20) showed weaker-than-expected payroll growth, with the unemploymen

$Home Depot(HD)$ released its third-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings report on November 18, 2025, covering the period ending September 30, 2025. Overall, the company achieved total sales growth, but core comparable store sales remained nearly flat, and profitability declined slightly.From a macro perspective, the home improvement sector continues to be weighed down by a weak U.S. housing market, high interest rates, and weather-driven demand shortfalls. Specifically: The company's total sales for the quarter reached $41.4 billion, representing approximately 2.8% year-over-year growth; however, comparable store sales increased by only about 0.2%. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $3.62, while adjusted EPS stood at $3.74, slightly below the $3.78 r