To The Moon

Two months ago, just because the financial report exceeded expectations, on the evening of April 24th, it immediately fell back to the starting line. Even though $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ had a comprehensive Q1 financial report that exceeded expectations, it still plummeted by 18%. What exactly is the market dissatisfied with? Investment pointsDoubts about user base? User scale is the basis of advertising revenue for social media companies. The company announced that starting from Q1 24, it will no longer disclose operational indicators such as DAU/MAU/MAP/ARPU, and will instead focus on the changes in ad impressions, similar to how $Netflix(NFLX)$ stopped disclosing subscriber numbers from 2025 and in

The performance of Hong Kong stocks has been good lately. $TENCENT(00700)$ stopped repurchasing on April 15th and not only remained stable during the external callback but also rose continuously this week. Blockbuster game DNF mobile game's launch is confirmed, and the market expects a significant increase in Q1 net profit. However, what is more important is $Naspers Ltd.(NPSNY)$ which has seen a decrease in the reduction of holdings for two consecutive weeks. Continuous inflow of central capitalOutflow of funds brought by the decline in the US stocks, is stimulating the emerging markets quite significantly. Similarly, Meituan-W (03690) also experienced similar fluctuations, with the reason for the inc

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ decreased 3.1% last week, $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ plummeted 5.5%, causing market attention. TMaybe it’s not a bad thing to fall at this position. It can not only digest its overly strong expectations, but also help to restart the interest rate cut trade.Liquidity IssuesThe turning point of financial liquidity in the second quarter will put pressure on U.S. stocks.The difference between the Federal Reserve's balance sheet rule - TGA account - reverse repos is used to measure liquidity within the financial system, which is approximately equal to the scale of reserves in the commercial banking system. Recent changes are that the Fed's monthly balance sheet reduction is still ongoing, but the tax

Big-Tech’s PerformanceRisk-off mode on, with big-techs hit first. Strong earnings does not guarantee a strong surge, macro data brings greater pressure to the market, the Fedes maintain hawkish, combined with the Israel-Iran war, the upcoming technology stock earnings season will also not be optimistic. As of the close on April 18, all big-techs experienced a pullback, with the worst performers being $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ at -14.13%, followed by $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ at -6.56%, $Microsoft(MSFT)$ at -5.53%, $Apple(AAPL)$ at -4.57%, $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ at -5.2%,

Large companies that release their financial performance early in the reporting season often provide strong guidance for similar companies. $Netflix(NFLX)$ was the first to announce its Q1 performance after hours on April 18. Judging from the comparison between the performance of the quarter and market expectations, this was an "exceeding expectations" financial report, but it dropped by 4% after hours, also signaling that investors have identified areas that require caution. Investment highlightsRevenue growth 15% year-on-year , the best in two years, and an expected 13% to 15% growth in revenue for the fiscal year 2024. Netflix's revenue growth in 2024 depends on the results of combating shared accounts and the development of the advertising bus

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ can be described as a money-making machine only to $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ . In the recently announced Q1 financial report for 2024, it indeed exceeded expectations as expected.Revenue was 592.64 billion New Taiwan dollars, market expectation was 583.46 billion New Taiwan dollarsGross margin was 53.1%, market expectation was 53.0%Net profit was 225.49 billion New Taiwan dollars, market expectation was 215.1 billion New Taiwan dollarsCompared with the disappointment earning of $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ yesterday, it can be described as a world of difference.In fact, the most important thing for the demand for lithography machines

Six Too-Big-To-Fail US banks have all released Q1 2024 financial reports.With the macro still tight, but economic activity strong, all of them beat without surprise, business department in divergence.Interest margin keeps narrowing but improved, the interest income has noticeably dropped, but the overall market expectation is not high. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo's partial interest income did not meet expectations, and the market had already priced this in.CPI strong, short-term interest rate cut expectations fell, and it is still difficult to see growth in the interest margin.Investment banking business as a whole is recovering, among which the growth of fixed-income underwriting business is the most noticeable. Wealth management business is growing steadily overall, and active market tradin

The economic cycle has started, driving the global manufacturing cycle to restart after two years, with the risk of inflation intensifying.From the supply side, the copper-gold-oil mega-cycle has started, the stock cycle rebound trend is confirmed, and the manufacturing cycle is confirmed to start rising.From the demand side, the most obvious consequences are rising hourly wages and CPI exceeding expectations.There is no longer a window for interest rate cuts in the short term.When is the interest rates cut path?The resilience of the U.S. fundamentals and the deep inversion of the yield curve also mean that this round does not require too many interest rate cuts. At the same time, there is no need to wait for the economy to deteriorate significantly for interest rate cuts, as the current a

Big-Tech’s PerformanceMagnificent 7 hit a new high this week, and the excess returns over $S&P 500(.SPX)$ also hit a new high. Despite this week's CPI exceeding expectations, the market's expectations for rate cuts this year have greatly declined, with only one rate cut expected in September.Whether hedging or convergency, the seven giants with strong cash flows and high tech attributes have also received inflows. According to Bloomberg's consensus, Q1 profits of the M7 are expected to grow by 38%.As of the close on April 11, all big tech companies have risen over the past week. The best performers were $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ +5.9%,

After the release of the March CPI, the CME's FedWatch Tool shows that it may be very difficult to cut interest rates twice this year. The current pricing is for a rate cut in September (with a probability of 46%), and a second rate cut in December (with a probability of 33.7% vs. 33.6%).Why does this CPI exceed expectations and have a significant impact on the market?It may once again expose the shortcoming of the Fed's "delayed" judgmentCoincidentally, on April 10th, the day the CPI data was announced, the minutes of the March meeting were also released, indicating that the expectation of three rate cuts this year remains unchanged.Although the Fed has slowed down its balance sheet reduction this year, it does not intend to reduce the pace of reduction.The purchasing power support brough