To The Moon

The market has reached a clear pricing consensus on $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ . The upward revisions to hyperscaler AI capex for 2026, as well as the successful ramp of the Blackwell platform, are now fully reflected in the stock. As a result, NVDA’s valuation framework has shifted away from being a pure “AI beta” trade toward a more structural question: Can the winner of the AI infrastructure buildout sustain its advantage into 2027 and beyond? At this stage, marginal buyers are increasingly focused on long-term visibility rather than near-term upside surprises. NVDA has effectively entered a valuation regime where narrative matters more than near-term financials. Core Investment Thesis 2027 Revenue Visibility Is the New Valuation Anchor Upside to NVDA’s 20

One of the most controversial names in the entire U.S. equity market—and a true outlier in the global data analytics and AI applications space $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ reported its Q4 2025 earnings after market close on February 2. Overall, this was a report with very few real flaws to pick apart. Revenue, profitability, leading indicators, and forward guidance all came in above expectations. More importantly, growth re-accelerated in Q4, directly easing the market’s core concern that Palantir’s premium valuation depends on high growth that might be peaking. What’s intriguing, however, is the market’s reaction. The stock rose less than 8% post-earnings, noticeably below the 10%+ moves investors had grown accustomed to in recent quarters.

Anyone who's been bagholding $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ the past 2 months knows the pain. Market rips, AI hype keeps pumping, yet this bitch refuses to move. 170 is the magical floor it bounces off like it's on springs, 190 is the invisible ceiling that smacks it back down every time it gets close. Feels cursed, right? Nah, it's not some spooky Chinese wizard—it's just dealer gamma pinning doing its thing. $GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF(NVDL)$ $GraniteShares 2x Short NVDA Daily ETF(NVD)$ $Tradr 1.5X Short NVDA Daily ETF(NVDS)$ The real villains aren't Citadel or whatever boogeyman you blame. It's the massive walls of open interest in the

Macro Theme of the WeekLabor Market Data Warm-Up & Fed Policy ExpectationsThis week’s macro focus centers on early signals from labor market data and shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy, alongside heightened geopolitical uncertainty driving volatility in technology stocks. ADP showed December job gains of 41,000, below expectations of 47,000, while JOLTS openings fell to 7.146 million, suggesting emerging tightness in labor market conditions. Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report will be the key data point for confirmation.Geopolitical Events Drive Market SentimentGeopolitical developments dominated sentiment this week. Reports of Venezuelan leader Maduro being arrested triggered volatility in oil prices, while restrictions on silver exports pushed silver prices up 18%, pressur

Macro Theme of the WeekThe minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December FOMC meeting released this week show that internal divisions over the policy path have widened significantly. Although the Committee ultimately decided to cut rates in December, the number of dissenting voices reached a level rarely seen.Overall, the minutes had a limited impact on risk assets, serving mainly to reinforce the market’s prior view that rate cuts in Q1 2026 are unlikely.On one hand, most officials supported rate cuts as a precaution against potential weakness in the labor market. On the other hand, some argued for keeping rates unchanged for a period of time, and a small minority believed that conditions in December did not justify a rate cut at all.This internal divergence suggests that the Fed has yet to

This Week’s Macro ThemeNovember employment data showed the U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly rising to 4.6%. While still low by historical standards, this marks the highest level since early 2021. Under the current macro pricing framework, a moderate softening in labor data is paradoxically viewed as positive by markets.The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75% this week, in line with market expectations. This move lifts Japanese interest rates to their highest level in 30 years and marks the first rate hike in 11 months since January 2025, signaling continued progress toward policy normalization. While the pace remains gradual, the shift has created marginal disruptions to global capital flows and carry trades.U.S. stocks sold off sharply on Wednesday, but rebounded on

Macro Highlights This WeekThe December FOMC delivered a widely expected 25bp rate cut and announced roughly USD 40bn in short-term Treasury purchases to replenish system reserves. However, the market’s real focus was not the policy action itself, but Chair Powell’s rare admission that current job growth may be “systematically overstated.”The latest dot plot shows a sharply widened divergence in views on the 2026 rate path. While the median still points to one 25bp cut, the range now spans from no cuts to as much as 150bp of easing, highlighting a lack of consensus among policymakers on the economic outlook.At the corporate level, Oracle’s earnings triggered the market’s first broad-based concern over AI capex returns. Weak cloud revenue combined with sharply higher capital spending drove t

Macro HighlightsIn Japan, Governor Ueda successfully persuaded the Prime Minister to agree to a 25bp rate hike to 0.75% in December, marking the official end of Japan’s ultra-low interest rate era. With the potential retracement of the trillion-dollar yen carry trade, markets are concerned about spillover risks. However, since this coincides with the Fed’s pause in rate cuts, the impact is expected to be less severe than the 2022 year-end “carry trade plunge.”In the US, the Fed officially ended balance sheet reduction on Monday, signaling a key shift in liquidity direction. Markets widely expect the next FOMC to announce a Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) program, potentially starting $35B/month of short-term bond purchases from January, indicating a policy shift from “draining” to “injec

Big-Tech’s PerformanceMacro Headlines This Week:Core inflation re-accelerated but with nuanceUS October core PCE rose 2.8% y/y – still above the Fed’s 2% target – yet the month-on-month pace eased. Services inflation, driven partly by surging portfolio-management fees tied to earlier equity gains, was the key driver.Fed policy path remains the biggest wildcardThe US economy shows resilience alongside hidden cracks. Markets are increasingly focused on the $6.7 tn of Treasuries maturing in 2025–2026 (≈25% of the outstanding marketable debt). Combined with potential expansionary fiscal policy under a second Trump administration, deficit concerns are rising. CICC estimates suggest meaningful deficit reduction will be difficult in a “Trump 2.0” scenario. Any shift in Treasury issuance mix could

Global IT infrastructure giant $Dell Technologies Inc.(DELL)$ has released its financial results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026. Overall, driven by surging demand for AI servers, the company delivered another record-breaking performance: revenue, EPS, and AI order volume all hit all-time highs. However, behind these impressive figures, uncertainties stemming from rising supply chain costs and overheated demand have begun to surface.Revenue hits record high, driven by AI but with deepening structural dependenceTotal revenue for the quarter reached $27 billion, marking an 11% year-over-year increase and setting a new Q3 record. Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) delivered particularly strong performance, with revenue hitting $14.1 billi