To The Moon

Big-Tech’s PerformanceRisk-off mode on, with big-techs hit first. Strong earnings does not guarantee a strong surge, macro data brings greater pressure to the market, the Fedes maintain hawkish, combined with the Israel-Iran war, the upcoming technology stock earnings season will also not be optimistic. As of the close on April 18, all big-techs experienced a pullback, with the worst performers being $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ at -14.13%, followed by $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ at -6.56%, $Microsoft(MSFT)$ at -5.53%, $Apple(AAPL)$ at -4.57%, $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ at -5.2%,

Large companies that release their financial performance early in the reporting season often provide strong guidance for similar companies. $Netflix(NFLX)$ was the first to announce its Q1 performance after hours on April 18. Judging from the comparison between the performance of the quarter and market expectations, this was an "exceeding expectations" financial report, but it dropped by 4% after hours, also signaling that investors have identified areas that require caution. Investment highlightsRevenue growth 15% year-on-year , the best in two years, and an expected 13% to 15% growth in revenue for the fiscal year 2024. Netflix's revenue growth in 2024 depends on the results of combating shared accounts and the development of the advertising bus

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ can be described as a money-making machine only to $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ . In the recently announced Q1 financial report for 2024, it indeed exceeded expectations as expected.Revenue was 592.64 billion New Taiwan dollars, market expectation was 583.46 billion New Taiwan dollarsGross margin was 53.1%, market expectation was 53.0%Net profit was 225.49 billion New Taiwan dollars, market expectation was 215.1 billion New Taiwan dollarsCompared with the disappointment earning of $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ yesterday, it can be described as a world of difference.In fact, the most important thing for the demand for lithography machines

Six Too-Big-To-Fail US banks have all released Q1 2024 financial reports.With the macro still tight, but economic activity strong, all of them beat without surprise, business department in divergence.Interest margin keeps narrowing but improved, the interest income has noticeably dropped, but the overall market expectation is not high. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo's partial interest income did not meet expectations, and the market had already priced this in.CPI strong, short-term interest rate cut expectations fell, and it is still difficult to see growth in the interest margin.Investment banking business as a whole is recovering, among which the growth of fixed-income underwriting business is the most noticeable. Wealth management business is growing steadily overall, and active market tradin

The economic cycle has started, driving the global manufacturing cycle to restart after two years, with the risk of inflation intensifying.From the supply side, the copper-gold-oil mega-cycle has started, the stock cycle rebound trend is confirmed, and the manufacturing cycle is confirmed to start rising.From the demand side, the most obvious consequences are rising hourly wages and CPI exceeding expectations.There is no longer a window for interest rate cuts in the short term.When is the interest rates cut path?The resilience of the U.S. fundamentals and the deep inversion of the yield curve also mean that this round does not require too many interest rate cuts. At the same time, there is no need to wait for the economy to deteriorate significantly for interest rate cuts, as the current a

Big-Tech’s PerformanceMagnificent 7 hit a new high this week, and the excess returns over $S&P 500(.SPX)$ also hit a new high. Despite this week's CPI exceeding expectations, the market's expectations for rate cuts this year have greatly declined, with only one rate cut expected in September.Whether hedging or convergency, the seven giants with strong cash flows and high tech attributes have also received inflows. According to Bloomberg's consensus, Q1 profits of the M7 are expected to grow by 38%.As of the close on April 11, all big tech companies have risen over the past week. The best performers were $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ +5.9%,

After the release of the March CPI, the CME's FedWatch Tool shows that it may be very difficult to cut interest rates twice this year. The current pricing is for a rate cut in September (with a probability of 46%), and a second rate cut in December (with a probability of 33.7% vs. 33.6%).Why does this CPI exceed expectations and have a significant impact on the market?It may once again expose the shortcoming of the Fed's "delayed" judgmentCoincidentally, on April 10th, the day the CPI data was announced, the minutes of the March meeting were also released, indicating that the expectation of three rate cuts this year remains unchanged.Although the Fed has slowed down its balance sheet reduction this year, it does not intend to reduce the pace of reduction.The purchasing power support brough

A Almost hedge Portfolio?The trends of $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ and $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ have been opposite as the stock price chart shows.About priceIn the first three months, NVDA had unlimited glory, while Tesla shareholders suffered. In April, Tesla instead rose against the trnd. The correlation of NVDA and Tesla YTD is only 0.002, compared to an average of 0.245 over the past two years. Similarly, the correlation between Tesla and $Apple(AAPL)$ remains around 0.5. About VolatilityTurn to options' implied volatility, since 2024, the at-the-money options volatility of Tesla and NVDA has also shown fluctuation of one doing well while the other drops. Both PUT and CA

$Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$ is a closed-end fund, with an initial listing price of $8.25, soaring to over $100 in just 9 days, closing at $99.75. And post-trade on April 10, it surged another 16%.There's a reason for all the frenzy, this closed-end fund is composed of 100 top private tech companies, including $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Elon Musk's SpaceX, $Apple(AAPL)$ competitor EpicGame, and the current hottest ChatGPT's parent company OpenAI $Microsoft(MSFT)$ .The main holdings are as follows, with SpaceX accounting for over a third of the portfolio at 34.6%. So buying this CEF is equivalent to buying a high percentage of S

Japan is gradually moving out of deflation, mainly due to external shocks such as Covid-19 and Ukrainian War, rather than the internal "Abenomics." The main reasons why "Abenomics" failed to achieve inflation are the tight fiscal policy and the failure to address labor shortages.The growth of salaries in Japan in 2024 may once again see a significant increase, and it is expected that Japan's inflation will be around 2.0-2.5% in 2024. In the long run, given the shortage of domestic labor supply in Japan and the changes in the international trade pattern, it is believed that Japan may completely get out of deflation.Today, the Japanese economy may have emerged from the "Lost 30 Years", and the future may face an important turning point. During 2021-2023, Japan's economy grew above potential