To The Moon

Focus on stocks that are not making new highs.This earnings season has been so fun that even a strong report like Nvidia's can fall. At present, FANNG stocks have almost gone through a low open high or high open low routine.With the last heavyweight stock earnings landing, the volatility index $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ has fallen to another low, bringing a clear shift in the optics-buyer market dominance. PUT calls have been more active recently, replacing the previous put and CALL calls with put and call calls, such as Microsoft $MSFT 20240119 355.0 PUT$ and Apple $AAPL 20241220 250.0 C

How to deal with the contradiction of the options transaction signal before the financial report.Nvidia reported on Wednesday, so far it will not fall after the earnings report, and the bullish consensus of several options orders is expected to be high. However, some stock options transactions before the earnings report are quite confusing, and the strategy is capricious, such as being bullish yesterday and becoming bearish today.There are many reasons for this situation, such as different expectations of time, short-term bearish but long-term bullish, a typical example is $Netflix(NFLX)$ this Q3 financial report. The fundamentals of Netflix's financial report are not bad, subscription price increases + writers' strike into the end of negotiations

Microsoft has a 100 million bullish order to change positions, stage profit taking, equivalent to reducing positions.Close a position $MSFT 20240216 300.0 CALL$roll $MSFT 20240216 350.0 CALL$Close 190 million, continue to roll 110 million, option Delta from 0.93 to 0.73.

This earnings report Nvidia options implied volatility is higher than before. Option sellers are better suited than buyers. Institutions that despise the next cycle are buying forwards.The seller may also consider the sell call in addition to the sell put. There is a strategy for earning gains and IVs: buy stocks + sell at-the-money calls. For example:Buy 100 shares of NvidiaSell $NVDA 20231124 492.5 CALL$ (exercise price based on current stock price)In the worst case scenario, if the stock price falls, it is equivalent to buying 100 shares at 470, but this method makes $1000 more than selling the 470 put option.Of course, the worst case scenario for a limited income strategy for a seasoned stock trader

Recently, I have been very busy and had little time to write daily routines. However, when I was busy, I unexpectedly found that my energy was limited, and I increasingly felt the advantages of sell put as a trading strategy. The extensibility is quite high, which can save a lot of judgment costs.During this period, the market situation has become very complicated, the Palestinian-Israeli dispute is heated, the FOMC meeting on the last rate hike and the impact of the US bond sale plan. These macro factors have overshadowed the performance of individual stocks and led to a two-month correction. Fortunately, the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are still strong, and although there are signs of a mini soft landing ahead, the stock market can continue to dance and dance before the rate cut ann

At present, the market is in a bold and conservative state, and the bulls and bears are engaged in a fierce game on the last rate hike. For now, the bears are winning.It can be expected that the Fed will not raise interest rates at this FOMC meeting, and the focus is on Powell's attitude: will there be a last rate hike in November. Powell would have one of three attitudes: raise rates, no rate hike, depends on the data. I am more inclined to the third attitude, from the expiry date of the large option order, the institution also believes that the turning point of the small correction market is in the non-agricultural farm on October 6:The expiration date of the call option sold just before the close on Friday revealed a lot $M

The market has been rescued by Nvidia again. Although the strong financial results, Nvidia stock prices opened higher and lower, poor performance, leading technology stocks fell. If Nvidia misses expectations, expect the market to repeat last September's post-Jackson Hole performance.But before the FOMC meeting on September 21, the market could face another free-for-all.The agency is split on Apple. The market is hedging, with bullish institutions choosing to sell ITM put options $AAPL 20230908 180.0 PUT$ and bearish institutions being more aggressive and buying OTM options directly $AAPL 20230929 145.0 PUT$ .老虎pc端The tw

The familiar story has returned, and it was unexpected that the short play of Wall Street was renewed again in the third quarter of 2023, rewriting the legend.A quick rundown of the first two seasons. After the FOMC meeting on February 2, some people bought 50,000 lots of xlf puts $XLF 20230616 32.0 PUT$ , holding it for more than a month, and rolling profits after the banking crisis erupted and the government announced its intervention. He used the macro pressure generated by the FOMC to cover up an early positioning of small bank stocks.The problem is, if I can see a problem, can't people in the government see it? So in May, after two months of preparation, the SEC announced that it would pursue any form of misconduct tha

Tesla and Netflix each fell 8% to become the trigger for this market correction. There is no hard damage in the earnings report, but the release time just before the index adjustment and FOMC, the market has a pullback demand. The FOMC meeting next Thursday, July 27, is likely to raise interest rates for the last time, and the dollar has rebounded after falling to a low point.So what is the target of this pullback? Two orders caught my eye:sell $MSFT 20230804 365.0 CALL$sell $CRM 20230804 245.0 CALL$I think the seller weight is greater than the buyer weight in the big options order, because the margin pressure is so muc

The market sentiment has been very good recently, after all, even Microsoft has made a large call option order. As I wrote in my article last week.However, the commenter reminded that the trader had closed his position on Friday (July 14) and did not roll his position, so he did not eat the most fat meat today, which is regrettable.It also shows that the driving factor of this guy's trading is very simple, that is, the index weight adjustment, so he ran away before the adjustment.In fact, the technological revolution is such a thing, as time continues to advance good news will continue to appear, holding the stock is more important than anything.Last month, analysts at Bank of America were bearish on AI. Analysts say th