To The Moon

$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$On Thursday, bitcoin holder MSTR plunged 16%, seemingly due to Citron Research's short announcement. Citron stated that MSTR's trading volume had completely disconnected from bitcoin fundamentals. While still bullish on bitcoin, they're hedging by shorting MSTR.Notably, Citron's X statement came at 10:43 PM on November 21st, after Thursday's close. MSTR had already fallen 16% before closing, suggesting Citron may be taking credit for the decline.Citron didn't disclose their short position type - stocks or options. Given options allow for both price and volatility shorts, I suspect they're using options, likely selling calls to short both volatility and price.Thursday saw numerous large call sales, any of which could be Citron'

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ earnings were generally good, but following the year-end pattern, the stock price will likely fluctuate before exploding in January. Those who haven't entered can wait for pullbacks, while those already in can write both calls and puts to profit from the 130-160 range oscillation.Wednesday's options flow showed significant put volume. Besides the December 140 puts I forwarded overnight, the second-largest opening position was buying this week's 140 puts while selling 130 puts.Based on today's opening performance, the 140 put strategy wasn't wrong. The error was in the overwhelming buying enthusiasm, as a mere 5% drop got bought up.I'm more focused on long-term strategy than short-term plays. You might have noticed large volumes

$Nvidia (NVDA)$ is set to report Q3 earnings after the close on Wednesday. According to Bloomberg analyst estimates, Nvidia's Q3 revenue is expected to be $33.125 billion, adjusted net income of $18.493 billion, and adjusted EPS of $0.739.Whether it can rally big after earnings depends on if revenue can exceed $2 billion over expectations again, and if the Q4 revenue guidance can also surpass projections.Based on open interest data, large option traders seem positioned more bullishly, with $150 appearing as a key breakout level for these earnings.Impacted by the stock pullback, earnings flows have been relatively cautious. Here's a roundup of the major option trades over the past few days for reference.There may be some looking for that perfect th

$Tesla (TSLA)$After seeing Tesla's new large option trades yesterday, I couldn't help but chuckle at the comedy of errors that could end up fueling a move to $370.First, the institutional hedgers rolled their $330-$360 collar up to $365-$405, now expecting TSLA to stay below $365 while hedging the $365-$405 upside:Sell $TSLA 20241122 365.0 CALL$ Buy $TSLA 20241122 405.0 CALL$ As I mentioned yesterday, the logical short strike for a pullback in week 2 should have been the prior $360 highs, not the $330 level from Friday's highs which was excessive.But with Monday's open above $340, they seemingly lacked convict

$Tesla (TSLA)$Last week, institutions hedged TSLA by selling $340 calls, targeting a range of $340-$375. With Friday's close at $320, they successfully positioned below $340.This week's hedge strikes are at $330, targeting a $330-$360 range, suggesting they don't expect TSLA to exceed last week's highs:Sell $TSLA 20241122 330.0 CALL$ Buy $TSLA 20241122 360.0 CALL$ $Nvidia (NVDA)$Earnings may be somewhat muted this week. Last Thursday, institutional option blocks started positioning for NVDA earnings, with early strikes targeting $160+. But after Friday's market weakne

Two Updates: Nvidia Earnings Expectations Around $160, Tesla Naked Call Sellers Take Losses and Exit$Nvidia (NVDA)$Expecting NVDA to close this week around $140-$150, with initial earnings projections above $160.According to new open interest data, large traders have started positioning for next week's earnings report, adding predominantly bullish options exposure overall.Three notable option trade groups:The largest new Opening positions were the December $180 and $190 calls:$NVDA 20241220 180.0 CALL$  - Opened 25,000 contracts$NVDA 20241220 190.0 CALL$  - Opened 25,000 contractsThe directional bias is unclea

On November 12th, two large bullish option trades printed in $Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN)$ - buying the February 21st $230 calls for $221 million, and the February 21st $320 calls for $111 million. Upon verification, these were part of a combined roll, with the actual activity being:Close (Sell-to-Open) $COIN 20250221 230.0 CALL$ Roll (Buy-to-Open) $COIN 20250221 320.0 CALL$ Tracing back their rolling history, shockingly this firm has rolled their COIN calls 7 times in under 2 months. Let's review these 7 rolls, using it as an opportunity to explain three frequently asked questions:What is a roll?Identifying

$Tesla (TSLA)$TL;DR: The uptrend is likely to end within November, with a chance of further upside but expecting a 2-day pullback. Key focus on the November 29th $435 calls ($TSLA 20241129 435.0 CALL$ ).Monday's option flows in TSLA were noteworthy, with the highest opening interest in the $435 November 29th calls ($TSLA 20241129 435.0 CALL$ ).The timing was interesting, with most of the action occurring right at 11:30am ET.At that time, TSLA spiked to $358 intraday, tagging the upper bounds of the intermediate-term uptrend channel before pulling back.The $435 strikes were not outright bullish buying, but rath

$Tesla (TSLA)$Was the option strategy shared last week of buying calls and selling puts effective?This method is not only convenient for entry, but also for exit. With TSLA trading up to $340 pre-market, many are likely looking to take profits. For stock positions, the exit is simply reducing share size. For call options, the exit is rolling - closing out your long calls and re-opening cheaper, higher strike calls.Many option buyers either hold through pullbacks, seeing profits erode or even losses, or they just outright close positions leaving further upside on the table.To avoid these two scenarios, relying on mental fortitude alone is insufficient. Preserving capital while compounding gains is the wiser approach when speculating.Which call opti

Thursday saw two massive bullish option trades: a mystery whale bought $600 million in SPY calls, while the $200 million trader rolled his NVDA call position higher.$SPY ETF (SPY)$On Thursday's open, huge call buying emerged in SPY. Someone closed out 30,000 contracts of the November 15th $580 calls, but rolled that position into 60,000 contracts of the November 29th $600 calls - doubling their upside exposure:Close $SPY 20241115 580.0 CALL$  for 30,000 contractsRoll and Buy $SPY 20241129 600.0 CALL$  for 60,000 contractsNot much explanation needed - just an overwhelmingly bullish bet on the S&P 500 continuin