To The Moon

$NVDA$ Good news first: the April 2nd 160 puts are gone $NVDA 20260402 160.0 PUT$ . Bad news: now they're betting on a crash, staggered by expiry. Even better news: premium's so cheap, notional is tiny. You can see why bears gave up on normal puts. NVDA's actually cheap now. And it's been range-bound for 7 months — not crowded like MU. Institutions running the same call spreads: 187.5 and 185. I'd still feel safer above 190 $NVDA 20260320 190.0 CALL$ . But AMD just opened 16k of next week's 160 puts $AMD 20260320 160.0 PUT$ . SMH also saw 13k of the 342.5 puts

$SPY$ The biggest trade: 29k of the March 17th 647 puts bought $SPY 20260317 647.0 PUT$  — over $4M in premium. March 17th is a Tuesday. Expiry like that? Only makes sense if someone's positioning for a Monday gap lower. Trump may want a quiet runway into triple witching, but Wall Street and the political machine behind him aren’t all rowing the same boat. If shorts in the US market start stirring up trouble, hard to stop it — the payoff from a crash is just too big. And who knows — maybe Trump himself is backing the downside. Talking stability, but betting on chaos. $NVDA$ Same story, different week. Still betting on a pullback to 170 $NVDA 20260320 170.0 PUT$&nb

$NVDA$ Tuesday's put flow suggests the panic has cooled — at least for this week. But institutions aren't letting their guard down. 40k of the March 20th 170 puts were bought to open $NVDA 20260320 170.0 PUT$ . If oil's reaction is any guide, we're likely in for the scenario I laid out yesterday: chop into triple witching. So NVDA grinds 180–190 into next week. $USO$ USO saw big blocks in puts — mostly longer-dated. Two strike buckets: 100 and 90. Means the market sees a stalemate near-term. Probability of a major drop in the next two weeks? Low. $TSLA$ First medium-term bullish call in a while: 510 calls bought $TSLA 20260515 510.0 CALL$  — 15.9k contr

$NVDA$ I’m starting to think Trump is running the same playbook as last year — stall through March, let things get ugly in early April, then bounce. Monday saw 62k of the April 2nd 160 puts open $NVDA 20260402 160.0 PUT$ . Meanwhile, weekly 165 and 167.5 puts got closed out. Bearish flows are still there, but the consensus is breaking down compared to last Friday. One collar trade caught my eye: sell 180 call $NVDA 20260717 180.0 CALL$ , buy 2x 130 puts $NVDA 20260717 130.0 PUT$ . The 180 call premium? ~$20. The trader’s view: NVDA won’t break 200 by July. Selling the call funds the pu

$SPY$ SPY's path lower is becoming clearer — steadily grinding toward the 200-day moving average at 655. Notable flows: Weekly put spread: buy 655 $SPY 20260313 655.0 PUT$ , sell 635 $SPY 20260313 635.0 PUT$ . April put spread: buy 657 $SPY 20260402 657.0 PUT$ , sell 590 $SPY 20260402 590.0 PUT$ . Moral of the story: don't try to catch the knife before the 200-day MA. Whether we go sub-655? Hard to say. Trump's tweets aren't running the show anymore. $USO$ Oil and oil ETFs look like they'll resolve direction by March 20. C

$KWEB$ After breaking below its 200-week moving average, KWEB saw a few structured bullish flows — mostly hedged with puts. Target bounce zone: 32–33. From the expiry profile, this looks like a longer-term positioning. The rebound won't happen overnight. More chop and grind lower possible. But institutions now think these levels are worth structuring hedged long exposure. First structure: very low cost. After hedge, the call premium is just ~$0.30–0.50. Sell put 24 $KWEB 20270115 24.0 PUT$  — 50k Buy call 33 $KWEB 20260918 33.0 CALL$  — 50k Second structure: Sell put 28 $KWEB 20260417 28.0 PUT$&nb

Still holding the view from earlier this week: SPY has more downside. Next week's risk remains elevated. Buy Puts: NVDA weekly 170 put closed, rolled to $NVDA 20260313 167.5 PUT$  — delta 0.14, 126k opened.$SMH 20260313 362.5 PUT$  — delta -0.124, 52k opened.$MU 20260313 340.0 PUT$  — delta 0.112, 19k opened. Sell Puts: $AMD 20260313 170.0 PUT$  — delta -0.065, 57k opened. Direction Unknown: $TSM 20260313 327.5 PUT$  — delta -0.166, 20k opened. Summary: in

$MSFT$ The most striking move: 150k call contracts printed on Wednesday — 100k bought in the 575 strike, 50k in the 625 strike. Another 100k short on the 675 call. $MSFT 20270115 575.0 CALL$  — 100k opened$MSFT 20270115 625.0 CALL$  — 50k opened$MSFT 20270115 675.0 CALL$  — 50k opened$MSFT 20261218 675.0 CALL$  — 50k opened Not much fundamental support for a run to new highs right now. That said, the stock looks washed out — solid candidate for selling puts. $SPY$ One clean short-vol collar: sell 710 call

SPY has hit the first pullback target at 670. Whether it continues down to 650 next is anyone's guess. The Israel-Iran conflict could still escalate — or de-escalate. De-escalation leads to a bounce. Escalation leads to more downside. Trying to predict the trajectory of a chaotic event like this is a fool's game. But one thing's clear: downside feels easier than upside right now. Tail risk is getting priced in big time. Volatility is spiking. Puts are expensive. Look at SPY flows — traders are leaning into 0DTE and weekly puts to hedge crash risk. Short-dated, sharp, directional. This environment? Not ideal for the usual sell-put routine. Probably stays that way through mid-April — about 4–5 weeks, per Trump's own estimate. Options price risk. When risk stops behaving within a normal range

First, let's look at this week's large orders from the "Put Buyer." Sell Puts: $ORCL 20260306 116.0 PUT$ : 85,000 contracts sold to open $SMH 20260306 350.0 PUT$ : 26,000 contracts sold to open However, the play on AMD was different — Buy Puts: $AMD 20260306 160.0 PUT$ : 42,000 contracts bought to open Implied volatility (IV) on out-of-the-money semiconductor puts remains extremely elevated. This isn't due to bearish AI commentary, but rather the macroeconomic risk-off sentiment stemming from the Israel-Iran war, fueling expectations of a broad market pullback. It's crucial to note that t