To The Moon

1.Barrier or Breakout?The "hours of work required to buy an ounce of Gold" indicator is approaching a familiar sticking point and historical stumbling block for the gold price. $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ Image2.The "Prospective Equity Risk Premium" (i.e. based on forward-looking expected returns) is set to be negative for the USA and positive for the rest of the world...Here's how this will impact investors and asset allocation decisions $.SPX(.SPX)$ $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ Image3.Here's a simple (but useful) framework for figuring out when to go maximum growth vs defense in asset allocation(of course there is t

Winning Tech =/= Winning Investors? interesting and timely reminder that some new and disruptive technologies do indeed transform the world, the way we do things, and the prospects of companies that are not even directly involved in the tech… But these new technologies can end up being a poor investment themselves, with investors facing difficulty in terms of picking the winners, capturing the gains, and navigating the treacherous cycles of bubbles, hype, and excessive valuations.one interesting point: interest rates and macro actually had quite a significant impact on the blowing and bursting of the bubble in that chart...Image

1.Huh... there's more Fortune 500 companies that were founded before 1950 than after.--the average Fortune 500 company is over 90-years old (?!) 🤯Image2.Fun Fact: the equal-weighted S&P500 has historically outperformed the cap-weighted version...the recent dominance of a handful of mega-caps is unusual, and represents a sharp deviation from trend 🤔 $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ ImageThis makes logical sense cap-weight:-skews into bubbly sectors-skews into mature companiesequal-weight:-skews into newer growth companies-skews into undervalued stocks and sectors3.The higher-for-longer script for US 10yr bond yields if the Fed is done hereImage

1.Range Trade for longer?Or big breakout coming?Things to consider:Image2.Gold vs BondsA 30-year(!) Ascending Triangle pattern in the works: $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ Image3.The higher-for-longer script for US 10yr bond yields if the Fed is done hereImage4.Did you know......the higher the valuation, the lower future returns are likely to be?And we see this playout in both *absolute* and *relative* returnsImage5.The path is similar, but one thing that is different, and probably helps explain some of the difference: starting point valuationstoday's investors early in the wealth building process have to navigate extremely high valuations in both the stock market and the housing marketdo you agree?Image

1.Different this time?Here's a look back at the dot com bubble -- and yes it was and is very different now vs then... in many ways.But are there similarities? (tell me there isn't 😤 ) $.SPX(.SPX)$ $Cisco(CSCO)$ $Oracle(ORCL)$ $Qualcomm(QCOM)$ Image2."Cash is trash"Fund Manager cash allocations at a record low...(albeit to be fair, bonds and commodities are cheap, so if not stocks then those and not cash)Image3.Fund managers think US stocks will be the best performing asset in 2025 (and almost none of them think bonds will be) Fascinating...Image4.Here's how valuations are tracking for 2 key cohorts within Global Equities

1.Heading into year-end, $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ and the $.SPX(.SPX)$ are neck and neck for top spot.There’s still 11 trading days left (as of the time of writing), and anything could happen, but certainly for now 2024 has so far been a very good year for gold:Image2.Kind of interesting that even in this day and age of mass-disruption and innovation that some of the oldest stocks put in some of the best performance...(brb, looking up list of 100yr+ old stocks 😅 )Image3.Energy Stocks are cheap...(on a relative basis)Cheap alternative hedge?Image

1.Global Equity Relative Value Trinity-Small vs Large-Value vs Growth-Global ex-US vs USWhat's happening and what to watch for investors: $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ Image2.Interesting look at historical returns for public vs private markets, basically:Public markets = beta-drivenPrivate markets = alpha-drivenImage3.Bonds can play a vital role in dampening volatility, and

1.Bonds can play a vital role in dampening volatility, and improving portfolio risk-adjusted returns ---but gotta say the recent experience leaves a lot to be desired... $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ Image2.China is back in the market, who's driving the market into 2025, $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ vs Bond market echoes, and Work required to buy gold...3.Crazy Chart-bubbles are not a new thing-even the smartest muck it up--how can you learn from this?Image4.Stockmarket investors don't care about yield.(at least that's the message we get in the chart below)The US stockmarket dividend yield is close to 1% --a bit more if you include the impact of buybacks, but still far below fixed income alte

1.Fundamentals vs Technicals...What if I told you one of the most fundamental of fundamental information: earnings growth, was actually working more like a technical indicator?Turns out Analyst consensus earnings expectations function more like a sentiment indicator -- basically giving a contrarian signal rather than a fundamental justification to be bullish or bearish. $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image2.Value investing tends to rely on market extremes, at least in the way that most people understand it......but markets don't spend much time at extremes, so you need to have a plan for that space betweenImage3.The only way you can be bullish here is if you expect a repeat of the dot com b

1."Don't worry, stocks and bonds *almost never* both fall at the same time"1931, 1969, 2022: 👺 Not a reason to discard stocks or bonds, and especially not a reason to discard asset allocation, but certainly a prompt to be more clever about diversification efforts and investment process... 🤓 $.SPX(.SPX)$ $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ Because interest rates usually go down in a garden variety recession... I think bonds still have a role to play in diversification, but also there will be trading opportunities (in either direction)Image2.Gold & Bonds: a curious thing in common...In recent times gold and bonds have had a tendency to follow similar price cycles, wit