To The Moon

1.You've probably seen the classic stockmarket seasonality charts before...but did you know seasonality works different in bull markets vs bear markets? $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2412(ESmain)$ Image2.The best time to own bonds is into and during a recession... which is also the worst time to own stocks.(i.e. what is diversification?)Image3.Best buying?When the market is cheap, interest rates are low and falling, economic data is so bad it's good (and then turns up), sentiment is extreme bearish (and bounces), positioning is washed out, technicals are oversold (and then break out vs resistance)Image

1.Glass half-full = if you hold your stocks for long enough your chances of avoiding losses goes up! 😀 Glass half-empty = even if you hold for at least 10-years there's still a chance you might end up down on your initial investment! 😵‍💫 Of course timing, diversification, and risk management matter tremendously in the calculus here... $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2412(ESmain)$ Image2.Tremendous relative value in Energy StocksMakes them a very interesting "alternative hedge" Image𝗨𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗦𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗡𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗴𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗖𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗲𝘀Learn how to understand cycles across time and markets, the purpose and nature of valuatio

1.Stocks go up in the long-run, you've seen the chart with the near-straight up to the right sloping line...BUT: there are cycles and entry-point matters a lot. This chart shows how even longer-term returns (10yr annualized real total returns) can swing wildly from very good to pretty bad $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image2.Absolute Valuations help determine future absolute returns... AND Relative Valuations help determine future *relative* returns: Image3.Best Stocks of all-time?=those who stuck around long-enoughmost companies were 70-90yrs+ old>> big win for "time in the market"(obviously some survivorship/selection stuff going on here, but interesting nonetheless)From the paper

1.ETF investors are just not interested in Gold $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ Implied allocations to both gold ETFs and gold miner ETFs are still tracking around the lows...Image2.Predictable Cycle set to Turn?Or different this time... Long-term perspectives on stocks: $.SPX(.SPX)$ $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ Image3.European stocks used to walk a very similar path to US, but that all changed after the financial crisis (and years of sovereign debt mess)You might call the left chart the honeymoon period for the European Union!Image4.Emerging Markets ex-ChinaA big Breakout: Image

1.The top-10 stocks don't usually win...History tells a story of the top-10 stocks under-performing vs the equal-weighted (490) stock index... with brief but often spectacular interludes $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2412(ESmain)$ Image2.Gold $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ -- is it over just as quick as it started?Reminder on what's behind the Brobdingnagian breakout: Image3.Crude Oil $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2412(MCLmain)$ on the Cusp of CapitulationImage

This week I covered the following topics/ideas:1. US Dollar: After a sharp rally, the DXY is now overbought, facing a major overhead resistance zone, consensus bullishness, fading seasonal tailwinds, expensive valuations, and monetary/fiscal headwinds. 2. China: Bullish China A-shares on cheap valuations, improved technicals, stepped up stimulus and fading tail risks (initial rebound in property prices), and excess pessimism (global/US).3. Commodities: Remain bullish commodities on cheap valuations, supply tailwinds, sentiment/positioning signals, multiple bullish technical indicators, and the prospect of global growth reacceleration.4. Oil & Energy Stocks: Continue to see upside risk for crude oil given sentiment/technicals and robust demand, but arguably geopolitical tail risk has re

1.Country/Region Returns(n.b. color coding is the ranking within year, so the best country within the year might be negative e.g. compare and contrast 2008 vs 2009)Goes to show the sometimes massive opportunities (and risks!) in country/region allocations:Image2.Longer life spans and one heck of a bull markets have seen the over 70yrs cohort compound their way to the largest share of equity holdings by ageMeanwhile the 40-54yr group is in the sour spot (I have some guesses as to why... being a member of that group myself!)Image

1.Some sectors win bigSome sectors win many timesBut no sector or style stays on top forever, it's a merry-go-round seesaw of a ride, and one with many opportunities for sector allocation strategies: $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image2.How to win in markets?Value Investor at ExtremesMomentum Investor through the RangeImage3.US investors allocate 3x as much to stocks as Europeans... do you think this impacts the culture, thinking, and regulations around capital markets and the economy?Image

1.Not-dot-com... something else!Tech stock valuations are priced for perfection+ What's similar vs different to the dot com bubble, and key points for investorsImage2.Stock Splits boost returns(or is it just that stocks that go up are more likely to split... 🧐 ) $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ Image3.Gold $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ is overvaluedImage4.Emerging Markets *ex-China* are set t

1.For those who make bullish comparisons with President Trump's 2016 victory, there is one key difference. Large cap equity valuation is way higher than it was in 2016 and bond yields were around 2%. Maybe small caps are the best Trump-trade this time around. $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $ProShares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ Image2.Today's stock indexes feature elaborate sector/industry breakdowns to group and classify stocks... and ultimately determine fl