To The Moon

$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2603(NQmain)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ Probably the most Unthinkable chart you can imagine... US tech stocks have peaked and are losing ground vs global tech stocks. Surely the US is not about to lose its Global Tech Leadership status?? But these things do go in cycles, even if you have big conviction on the very real fundamental story, you can't ignore macro-market-financial cycles, and the cycle is looking quite tenuous... The big issue is Tech Stocks have peaked, are on technically shaky ground ---AND this is coming from a starting point of stretched Valuations.

Tech Sector Credit Risk! 👀 It was all fun and games with AI hype when it was just equity markets, but now that credit markets are involved it doesn't seem so fun anymore… $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2603(NQmain)$ Higher for Longer risk... It seems like in lieu of a deflationary recession the path of least resistance for bond yields is higher (for longer). If that happens slowly and smoothly then it's probably no issue. But there are some risks if the path becomes more violent sharp... Emerging Markets risk pricing sentiment. Confidence vs Complacency?

With all I discussed above I couldn’t keep this one to myself! This chart tracks the average z-score (i.e. normalizing each series in terms of where it is tracking vs long-term average so it can be put in common comparable terms) across every country that has consumer and business confidence surveys. In other words, it is a global barometer of economic confidence. The first thing to note is how out there in the real world, consumers and businesses have been having a tough time in recent years — while there was no official recession, with the inflation shock, rise in rates, and exhausting (geo)political news/noise flow, we’ve basically been through a confidence recession [albeit others call it a k-shaped economy, stealth recession, vibecession, etc!]. And now, as I noted earlier, the clouds

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: 1. The S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ equal vs cap weight ratio is at an inflection point. 2. Investor cash allocations are at cycle lows. 3. (equity allocations are at cycle highs) 4. Global vs US equities are also at an inflection point. 5. Despite some overheating in EM equities, there’s room to run. Overall, while last week saw some particularly turbulent price action within tech (especially software slumping as a result of AI disruption/threats), we’ve seen further progress on bullish rotation and bull market broadening. And in case I didn’t make myself clear, Rotation is the big theme right now…

1.Tech & Tech $The Technology Select Sector SPDR Premium Income Fund(XLKI)$ related sectors' Capex has gone from around 25% to 50% of total S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ corporate capex over the past decade.Boom, bubble, or new paradigm? 2.Black line playing catch-up...Gold $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ firmly outperforming virtually every other asset ---what's the end-game here?? 3.Gold is overvalued, and so are tech stocks $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ . For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.

1.Commercial Real Estate: big reset.In real inflation-adjusted terms, the CRE downturn has been substantial (-30%) and drawn-out (almost 4 years since peak to initial trough). Some might say that’s “enough”. (…downturn done?) 2.One of the biggest themes in markets last year was the Global Equities catch-up trade.We saw major upward re-rating of valuations across developed, emerging, and frontier markets.And there is still plenty of room to run... For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.🎉Cash Boost Account Now Supports 35,000+ Stocks & ETFs – Greater Flexibility NowFind out more here.Compl

1.Surging semiconductors $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ : the big beneficiary of the AI hype bubble has been semiconductor stocks – with that sector’s market cap weight far eclipsing levels seen during the dot com boom. Is it the new normal, or just another cycle of boom and b...? 2. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Surveyed Sentiment: summing the various surveys, sentiment is getting fairly bullish. This is not necessarily an impending bearish signal as it reflects the bullish momentum underway, and I would highlight that sentiment generally works better at picking bottoms than tops. But it does got to show that most minds are made-up… and if the right(/wrong) thing came along, those minds could change pretty quickly

1.Global Equities have been surging -- and here's one of a few key reasons why 👇 Globally we've seen a big pivot to easing by central banks, and basically what I would call a non-recessionary rate-cut-rush.(bullish!) 2.Absolutely catastrophic run in energy stocks vs gold miners...(but you always want to pay attention when extreme moves like this unfold e.g. see what happened last time a move like this occurred) $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ 3.We’ve seen a generational up-shift in US equity allocations and valuations. It would be difficult to see either of these lines move further higher, the best case is probably just a new higher plateau… For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA toda

For those who are wondering what’s behind the moves in the chart above, or for those who may be skeptical on technicals, this next chart provides some critical context on what has been a major driver of the global equity bull market.Aside from global stocks coming off of very cheap valuations (vs their own history and vs US), we have seen a major pivot in global macroeconomic policy settings.Heading into 2025 there was already a shift towards easing, and then the chaos of H1 (tariff tantrum) triggered a wave of precautionary stimulus in response. This along with a weakening US dollar, rotation flows, and improving macro/earnings pulse has given a firm macro-fundamental backing to the technical developments which I laid out above. This is where you see the most interesting moves in markets:

1.Stocks & Gold are ExpensiveBonds & Commodities are CheapSo far it's shaping up to be a good year for commodities...But there's a few things to keep an eye on: 2.Investor allocations to bonds are at a 20-year low......and more to the point, they are at similar levels to where they got at the peak of the dot-com bubble and just prior to the global financial crisis.Yes, this is a contrarian signal.Got bonds? For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.🎉Cash Boost Account Now Supports 35,000+ Stocks & ETFs – Greater Flexibility NowFind out more here.Complete your first Cash Boost Accou