To The Moon

Retail investors have continued to buy the dip aggressively throughout this $S&P 500(.SPX)$ correction. Retail has only been a net seller in 7 sessions for ALL of 2025. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ ImageThat was my view at the beginning of March：Retail investors net bought stocks for 28 straight days from 1/10 to 2/20, including 4 of the top 5 largest retail buying days in history. This the type of euphoria you see at market tops. Image

CTAs are short -$34B of US equities and long $52B of European equities. This is the largest spread we have EVER seen. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $SPDR EURO STOXX 50 ETF(FEZ)$ ImageI just said that on Tuesday：CTAs essentially entered this week max short, which looks to be turning into a massive tailwind now. GS estimates the largest 1M CTA buying demand since Nov 2023. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ finished +5.7% in Nov ‘23.Image

CTAs essentially entered this week max short, which looks to be turning into a massive tailwind now. GS estimates the largest 1M CTA buying demand since Nov 2023. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ finished +5.7% in Nov ‘23.Image

We have gone ATH total long positioning to now underweight in less than 2 months. Positioning can always go lower, but this has already been 1 of the quickest washouts ever recorded. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Image

We have just witnessed 1 of the sharpest drops in investor sentiment EVER.Other such drops have historically been a bullish signal for near term $S&P 500(.SPX)$ returns.Image70-80% hit rate after similar declines in investor sentiment (only a few in history)Image

Hedge Funds have been absolutely unloading for the last month +.The liquidations have accelerated over the past couple sessions with their largest 2-day de-grossing in 4+ years. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Image

1 week before the $SPX bottomed in 2022. 👇👇👇 This is what capitulation looks like. We haven’t seen anything like it yet in 2025. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ ImageThe wild part about this is Put/Call Ratio is ‘only’ at 0.81.Elevated, but not an extreme number by any stretch. A Put/Call >1 is extreme.Both puts and calls are flying like chips in a casino. Image

We just witnessed the largest 4 week outflow from Crypto funds on record. All throughout its history, Bitcoin declines by 70%+ during Bear cycles. When the narrative is “Bitcoin is dead and will never recover”, it’s the time to buy. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ $Strategy(MSTR)$ Image

$Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ hang this 1 in the Louvre HIMS is the textbook example of an asset bubble & bustImageHedge Funds: absolutely unloading Retail: buying the dip $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ ImageImage

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ was the undisputed king of this entire Bull Market. Now headed for its first Death Cross since the 2022 Bear Market lows.Image