To The Moon

The outperformance of semiconductor $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ companies isn’t a new thing. However, 2-3 years of outperformance are normally met with a mild correction afterwards. 2026 could be the fourth year in a row of outperformance, suggesting 2027 could see a correction - not that markets listen to historic trends! PS: Here’s my framework for determining whether a company is investable: 1. Financials - I look for consistently high returns on capital, high FCFps growth, margin expansion, and affordable debt. 2. Qualitative - Here I look for high market share, a mission critical product, a business not overly reliant on raw materials and expensive to maintain physical assets. 3. Valuation - I infer how much growth the market is pricing in

Over the last few years, $AutoZone(AZO)$ and $O'Reilly(ORLY)$ have always consistently appeared fairly high up on my screens. It’s not a sector I would personally invest in, but their levels of compounding have been impressive. Here’s my framework for determining whether a company is investable: 1. Financials - I look for consistently high returns on capital, high FCFps growth, margin expansion, and affordable debt. 2. Qualitative - Here I look for high market share, a mission critical product, a business not overly reliant on raw materials and expensive to maintain physical assets. 3. Valuation - I infer how much growth the market is pricing in, I then analyse whether that’s realistic or not. Most investo

If you're an active investor, why don't you invest in the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ ? Why I don’t invest in the S&P 500: - I don’t want to own banks, airlines, energy companies, mining companies, utilities, heavy industrials, REITs, biotechs, alcohol, tobacco or gambling stocks - I don’t want to own anything low quality, highly leveraged or highly cyclical - I don’t want to own anything without pricing power What would you add?

$KLA-Tencor(KLAC)$ is one of the highest quality companies in the S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ . But is it now too expensive? Many investors pay attention to the wrong variables. Here’s a list of what doesn’t matter, what matters somewhat, and what actually drives returns: Doesn’t really matter: •Market cap •Country company is listed •Share price •Dividend yield Matters somewhat: •Sector •FCF yield •Revenue growth •Insider ownership / owner operator Matters the most: •Return on capital •Margin expansion •Pricing power •Reinvestment runway What would you add? 😍 Been eyeing Tiger merch but short on Tiger Coins? Now's your chance. 🎁 We’ve selected 4 high-demand items across practial, lifestyle, and learni

Republic Services $Republic(RSG)$ is a classic example of a quiet compounder. Their FCFps is compounding at 14%, with great linearity. Their returns on capital are modest, but growing. And their buybacks are consistently reducing their share count. Their competitors: Waste Management $Waste Management(WM)$ and Waste Connections $Waste Connections(WCN)$ are also quiet compounders, highlighting that the waste management sector is a fertile market for multi-decade growth. The industry's structural tailwinds are driving a lot of the growth. You don't need hyper growth tech companies to consistently compound capital. Do you invest in the waste sector? How would you define

🏰 Monopolies $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ - advance semi fab $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ – EUV lithography $VeriSign(VRSN)$ - domain name registry $Fair Isaac(FICO)$ – credit scores $Intuit(INTU)$ – tax preparation software $Thermo Fisher Scientific(TMO)$ – ultra-high-end mass spec $Illumina(ILMN)$ – high-throughput DNA sequencing $CoStar(CSGP)$ – U.S. commercial real estate data $Sherwin-Williams(SHW)$

Weekly Macro Themes Report (preview) - Global Equities, Software stocks, Bitcoin, US Dollar Here's the topics & takeaways from the latest Weekly Macro Themes report: 1. GSV vs ULG: relative value favors Global, Small, Value vs US, Large, Growth, but on all three counts a turning point in relative performance remains elusive (still only stop-start progress). 2. Global ex-US Equities: the global vs US rotation trade has stalled, but remain constructive on global vs US given extremes in relative value, improved earnings, anticipated USD weakness, and technicals. 3. Software: remain bullish on software stocks given bullish technicals and major reset in valuations. 4. Bitcoin: remain bullish given seasonal tailwinds, bullish technicals, supportive leading indicators, and all set against the

There are levels to quality investing. Level 1: Profitability - e.g. $Coca-Cola(KO)$ Level 2: Strong band - e.g. Hermes Level 3: Mission-critical product + high switching costs - e.g. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ Level 4: High returns on capital - e.g. $Fair Isaac(FICO)$ $Costco(COST)$ Level 5: Strong pricing power - e.g. $Apple(AAPL)$ Level 6: High barriers to entry - e.g. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Level 7: Network effects - e.g. $Visa(V)$

All investors should study Fair Isaac $Fair Isaac(FICO)$ Yes, long-term debt is a high percentage of total assets, but their interest expense is a low percentage of operating profit (meaning debt is affordable). And yes, stock-based compensation is a high percentage of operating cash flow, but their FCF per share CAGR is high and their shares outstanding are dropping quickly (meaning there's still great capital allocation). $Zoetis(ZTS)$ has recently seen its FCF yield jump up. The market is clearly pricing in slower long-term growth and some margin pressure versus its historical premium. Yet the core animal health franchise remains highly resilient, with recurring revenue and durable demand from pet owner

An important screen for finding quality companies lies at the intersection of (I) high global demand for a product, and (II) only a small number of providers serving the market. The semiconductor equipment companies are a great example. There’s huge global demand for compute, which requires semis, which requires the equipment that manufactures them. That’s why I’m long $KLA-Tencor(KLAC)$ $Lam Research(LRCX)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ There’s also huge demand for payments, and $Visa(V)$ and $MasterCard(MA)$ are two of the most important providers of payment services. When high demand and a small