$S&P 500(.SPX)$ formed the exact FVG I outlined in this weekend's update. The downside trigger is now in play. Bullish FVG sits at 6,905–6,857. If it holds, bulls get one more push to new highs. But a daily close below 6,857 sends the SELL SIGNAL. And if that triggers? 6,500. A lot of people aren't ready for what's coming. Bottom line: Whether SPX tops here or squeezes one more high out of this market — the macro setup is bearish. The divergences are screaming. The structure is mature. It's not about IF. It's about WHEN.
The Countdown Begins: SPX Top Confirmed, Next Stop 6500
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ Primary Count | Macro top is IN. 5-wave structure complete off the April low. $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ printed a new high. SPX didn't. That's a bearish SMT divergence — and it matters. Friday's rally? Corrective. Wave 2 noise. Watch 6954 (78.6%) for rejection. Break below 6760 confirms the move lower. Target: 6550–6500 Monthly FVG. Invalidation: 7002. SPX Alt | One more push. Marginal new high to 7025 to complete the structure — then it's over. $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ already confirmed its top. SPX and DJI are next. Invalidation: 6760 Bottom line: Whether SPX tops here or squeezes one more high out of this market — the macro setup is bearish. The divergence
The Bear Market Starts Now: $SPX, $DJI Divergence Signals Trouble as $MSFT Leads Lower
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ broke the 2/4 trendline. The 5-wave advance from April is officially complete Friday's 78.6% retrace is a textbook wave 2 — and wave 3 down to 6,500 is next. $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ just made a new ATH without SPX and $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2603(NQmain)$ confirming. The bear market starts now. Leaders top first. Leaders bottom first. That's what makes them LEADERS. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ topped July 2024. SPX topped 7 months later... THEN IT CRASHED 20%. Now look at today. MSFT topped July 2025. SPX topped 6 months later... Same leader. Same pattern. Same warning. You think that's a coincidence?
Dow Alone at High | SPX & NDX Roll Over, MSFT, AMZN, AMD Slide
$Dow Jones(.DJI)$ made a new high today. $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ and $S&P 500(.SPX)$ didn't. That's not strength — that's the last domino. NDX topped October 29th SPX topped last week. DJI is completing its final 5th wave. When the last index tops, they all fall together. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ TOP CALLED AT $514 I said the 5-wave rally from 2020 was COMPLETE. Down 24% from my call. We're almost at the $362–327 targets... Elliott Wave doesn't care about your feelings. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ SHORT CAUGHT After a bearish 5-wave decline, a CISD triggered and I entered short with members at $
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ just broke below its 2/4 trendline from April. The 10-month rally is confirmed complete. Short-term target: 6500 This can happen in days, not weeks. Ceiling capped at the 7002 peak. Had extremely HIGH CONVICTION that the decline would continue today. It respected our pivot point (50%/MT) and crashed to our aggressive downside target nearly 100 POINTS peak to trough. As I wrote yesterday: SPX just rejected 7,000. The 2/4 trendline at 6,860 is the line in the sand. Break it, and this 10-month rally is officially over. $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2603(NQmain)$ is flashing the same divergence we saw at the 2022 and 2025 tops. If history rhymes, we're looking at 20% downside from here.
If $S&P 500(.SPX)$ directly crosses below the 2/4 trendline (~6850), I'll be calling the top. That would confirm completion of the 10-month impulse from the April low, especially when paired with the persistent 3-month bearish divergence in $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ . Together, those signals would favor a ~20% correction in 2026. SPX has entered top-watch territory. After hitting the 7000 target, price retraced 50%+ of W5 — raising the odds that W5 of Wave 5 is complete and a macro top is in. Confirmation: A break below the 2/4 trendline (~6850). If that cracks, 7002 becomes the ceiling and 6500 comes into play over the next few weeks — potentially kicking off the ~20% correction into 2026. Short-term Invalida
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ has entered top-watch territory. After hitting the 7000 target, price retraced 50%+ of W5 — raising the odds that W5 of Wave 5 is complete and a macro top is in. Confirmation: A break below the 2/4 trendline (~6850). If that cracks, 7002 becomes the ceiling and 6500 comes into play over the next few weeks — potentially kicking off the ~20% correction into 2026. Short-term Invalidation: 7002+ If price maintains momentum and crosses 7002, it would favor that SPX is still unfolding a sub-wave 3, with a Wave 4 pullback likely to fw back toward today’s low. If that dip is bought, it would preserve the rising wedge structure and allow for a final W5 of Wave 5 advance. Invalidation: A break below today’s low.
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ reached the 7000 target projected from the 6800 Weekly FVG ✅ One more push to 7010–7020 is favored to complete w5 of W5 of Wave 5. This may mark the final advance of the rally from April, so cautious on the long side once reached. ⚠️ Daily close below 6933 or a break of the 6895 (W5 50%) warns the macro top is finalized. Weekly outlook playing out. SPX made a new all-time high, confirming W5 of Wave 5. Further upside is favored toward 7000 - 7020 - 7050, with the newly formed Daily FVG acting as support. A Daily close below the FVG (6933) would warn of a pullback toward the 50% retrace of W5. With FOMC tomorrow, if that 50% retrace is crossed, there's risk for a higher-degree reversal.
Apple Nails 5th-Wave Target, Relief Bounce Delivers
Best potential long setups this week: $Netflix(NFLX)$$Apple(AAPL)$$Microsoft(MSFT)$ All three hold 5-wave declines at support. 5-wave moves are followed by retracements. Rotation into these names supports the move higher in $S&P 500(.SPX)$ AAPL (+5.6%✅) and MSFT (+3.8%✅) already delivering. NFLX (-1.7%⏳) holding structure at support. We projected a Apple 5th wave decline to 247-243 That hit 🎯 A relief bounce was there to target the Weekly FVG That hit, too 🎯 For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well