My pick for 2026: U.S. equities hitting new highs. Earnings resilience, AI-driven productivity gains, and strong balance sheets still favour a grind higher, even if leadership narrows and volatility rises. New highs do not require exuberance, only sustained cash flow growth. Gold above US$5,000 is plausible but conditional on sustained real-rate compression and geopolitical stress. It is more likely as a spike than a stable regime. Fed policy reversals may occur, but more as incremental recalibration than dramatic U-turns. An outright AI bubble burst looks least likely. A valuation reset or rotation is more realistic than a collapse. Ironically, the true surprise could be “nothing happens”. A year of modest growth and range-bound markets would wrongfoot both extremes. That said, my v
Jim Reid’s provocation is useful precisely because markets have become conditioned to expect drama. When shock becomes the baseline, stability itself turns counterintuitive. My assessment for 2026, in order of likelihood: 1. U.S. equities hitting new highs This is the most probable. Earnings growth from productivity gains, AI-driven capex, and resilient balance sheets can still carry indices higher, even if returns are narrower and more uneven. New highs do not require euphoria, only persistence. 2. Gold breaking above US$5,000 Plausible, but conditional. It likely requires sustained real-rate compression, ongoing central bank buying, and geopolitical tension. A spike above US$5,000 may occur, but holding that level is a higher bar. 3. Repeated Fed policy reversals Less dramatic than it so
Gold at ~US$4,500 reflects an unusually powerful convergence of macro forces. Whether US$5,000 is reached in 2026 depends less on speculation and more on whether these drivers persist. Will gold hit US$5,000 in 2026? Plausible, but not guaranteed. A move to US$5,000 would require several conditions to remain aligned: Monetary policy: If the Fed delivers two cuts and real yields stay compressed, gold remains structurally supported. Geopolitics and fragmentation: Ongoing geopolitical risk and reserve diversification by central banks are long-duration tailwinds. Currency confidence: Persistent fiscal deficits and debt monetisation narratives favour gold as a store of value. However, upside is unlikely to be linear. A stronger US dollar, delayed cuts, or risk-on equity sentiment could trigger
Current Market Context Recent trading saw the S&P 500 at yet another record high (~6927) as the traditional “Santa Claus rally” window began in the last trading days of December. Analysts link this to seasonal demand, lighter volumes, and cautious optimism around earnings and monetary policy expectations such as rate cuts. What the Seasonal Patterns Suggest Santa Claus rally refers to the tendency for the S&P 500 to rise during the last five trading days of the year and the first two of January. Historically this pattern: Has seen positive returns in ~75 per cent of years since 1950. Generates average gains around 1.2–1.4 per cent over the seven-day window. This is not a structural market driver but a seasonal statistical pattern, not a fundamental guarantee. The Januar
DBS in 2026 DBS should remain a strong core holding, supported by solid capital buffers, disciplined management, and an attractive dividend. However, upside is likely to be gradual rather than explosive, with returns driven more by income, wealth management, and asset quality than by further rate tailwinds. JPMorgan’s Singapore picks JPMorgan’s picks lean towards stability over speculation. DBS anchors the list, while names like ST Engineering, Keppel, and Singtel add exposure to defence, energy transition, and restructuring themes. Bottom line DBS continues to shine as a dependable anchor, not a breakout play. JPMorgan’s strategy suits a steadier, lower-volatility 2026.
$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ The Christmas period is best treated as a pause rather than a push. My ideal plan is a quiet reset. Fewer screens, more reading, longer walks, and time deliberately left unstructured. It is one of the rare windows where stepping back improves clarity rather than costing opportunity. From a markets perspective, I typically scale back active trading significantly. Liquidity thins, price moves can be exaggerated, and the risk-reward for new positions deteriorates. Instead, I prefer light monitoring only. Reviewing the year, stress-testing assumptions, and sketching scenarios for the new one tends to be far more productive than forcing trades. If anything, it is a time to reduce noise, not add exposure. On travel style, I lean t
Here is a grounded take based on current markets and historical patterns. Will the Santa Rally Extend into January? Seasonal patterns show that the so-called Santa Claus rally covers the last five trading days of December and the first two of January, historically nudging the S&P 500 higher more often than not. Since 1950, this period has produced an average positive return and delivered gains in a high proportion of years, though not always large moves. Current positioning supports the seasonal lift. The index is at record closing levels, and technical momentum with lighter holiday volumes can extend the trend in the near term. However, there are important caveats: A Santa rally is a calendar effect, not a fundamental guarantee. Past performance does not determine future o
$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ 2025 will likely be remembered less for any single shock and more for a structural shift. In my view, the defining event was the decisive re-pricing of compute as a strategic resource. The AI arms race moved from narrative to capital reality. Trillions flowed into data centres, power infrastructure, advanced chips, and sovereign-level technology policies. This reshaped capital allocation far beyond tech, influencing commodities, energy, defence, and geopolitics. Tariffs and politics created volatility, but compute scarcity changed the long-term investment map. The trade that taught the most was not a high-conviction winner, but managing exposure during the AI drawdowns. Several “inevitable” narratives corrected sharply despi
Will gold hit USD 5,000 in 2026? It is possible, but not the base case. At around USD 4,500, gold already reflects expectations of Fed rate cuts, sustained central bank buying, fiscal imbalances, and geopolitical risk. A move to USD 5,000 likely requires an additional catalyst, such as a sharper US slowdown, deeper-than-expected easing, renewed inflation pressure, or a major geopolitical escalation. In a soft-landing scenario with stable growth and a firm US dollar, consolidation below USD 5,000 is more probable than a clean breakout. Futures, ETFs or leveraged ETFs? • ETFs are best for most investors, offering simple, long-term exposure without leverage decay. • Futures suit experienced traders who can manage volatility and margin risk. • Leveraged ETFs are strictly short-term tradin
Novo Nordisk’s rally on approval of an oral Wegovy is strategically important, but it does not automatically guarantee a sustained turnaround. Why the oral approval matters An effective oral GLP-1 materially expands the addressable market. Many patients avoid injectables due to inconvenience or needle aversion, particularly in primary care and early-stage obesity treatment. From a competitive standpoint, this is Novo Nordisk’s first credible answer to Eli Lilly’s strong pipeline momentum and helps rebalance the narrative that NVO is structurally losing ground. Why NVO underperformed so sharply NVO’s 38% decline this year reflects a mix of factors rather than a collapse in the obesity thesis. Concerns centred on manufacturing capacity, slower-than-expected supply expansion, pipeline disappo