My pick: B. Range-bound (-5% to +5%) Reason: Intel is still in an “expectations reset” phase, so unless guidance is a clear upside shock (AI PC demand, margins, foundry progress), the market likely treats earnings as a checkpoint, not a breakout catalyst. A big move (>5%) usually needs either a major guide-up (A) or a sharp miss / weak outlook (C).
Single theme into 2026: AI monetisation at the application layer. Infrastructure gains are largely priced in. The next phase rewards firms that translate AI into clear productivity gains and recurring revenue within real workflows. Tempus AI (TEM): Further upside is possible, but only with execution surprises. Its oncology focus commands high willingness to pay. Gains hinge on faster adoption, margin improvement, or major pharma partnerships. Valuation remains unforgiving. ServiceNow & Snowflake vs IGV: Preference: ServiceNow > IGV > Snowflake. ServiceNow shows the strongest ROI-led AI adoption and pricing power. IGV suits diversified exposure. Snowflake faces heavier competition and margin uncertainty. NVIDIA add level: Add only on pullbacks. Ideal zone is 15–20% below
Alibaba Group Short answer: today’s move reads primarily as sell-the-news, with measured scepticism rather than outright disbelief in Al commerce. Why this looks like sell-the-news Expectations were front-loaded. After three consecutive up sessions, the market had already priced in a successful Al announcement. A 3 percent pullback is consistent with tactical profit-taking rather than a shift in narrative. No immediate earnings lever. The Qwen App launch reinforces strategic direction but does not yet quantify near-term revenue uplift, margin expansion, or take-rate improvement. Event risk rotation. Traders often fade launches once the catalyst has passed, especially in large-cap China tech where rallies remain fragile. Where scepticism is justified Monetisation clarity is still thin. Embe
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Short answer: yes, Al demand can plausibly sustain TSMC’s momentum into 2026, and the market is likely still underpricing the durability and depth of its Al exposure. Can Al demand carry growth into 2026? Several structural factors argue that this is not a one-cycle spike: Foundry bottleneck advantage. Advanced nodes at 5nm, 3nm, and upcoming 2nm remain capacity-constrained. Al accelerators, custom ASICs, and high-end CPUs are all funnelled through TSMC with limited alternatives. Multi-year capex visibility. Hyperscalers and Al platform leaders are committing to long-dated silicon roadmaps, not short-cycle inventory builds. This supports sustained wafer demand beyond 2025. Broader Al diffusion. Demand is no longer limited to training GPUs. Inferen
Short answer: this looks far more like a technical reset than a structural trend reversal. Why the pullback is technically healthy Overbought conditions were extreme. Gold had rallied almost vertically into the $4,640 area, pushing momentum indicators well beyond historical comfort zones. A $40–$60 shakeout is typical after such moves. Positioning was crowded. CTA and momentum funds were heavily long. Strong U.S. PPI and retail sales provided a convenient macro trigger for profit-taking rather than a fundamental break. No key support was violated. As long as spot holds the $4,500–4,520 zone, the medium-term uptrend remains intact. Why fundamentals still favour gold Geopolitical risk remains unresolved, supporting a persistent risk premium rather than a one-off spike. Central bank demand co
The KeyBanc upgrades reflect a capacity-driven inflection, but Intel and AMD sit at very different points on the expectations curve. Intel: can the turnaround gain real traction? Yes, but traction will be incremental rather than explosive. For Intel, the tightening of AI server capacity matters less as a near-term revenue surge and more as credibility repair. What supports the narrative: Expectations reset is real. Intel is no longer priced as an AI winner, so modest execution can move the stock. AI adjacencies (Xeon refresh cycles, Gaudi accelerators, foundry optionality) benefit from capacity tightness even without outright leadership. Enterprise customers value supply certainty and pricing discipline, where Intel can regain relevance as alternatives become constrained. What still caps u
JPMorgan’s investment-banking (IB) miss is a useful caution signal, but it does not on its own prove a broad-based collapse in capital markets activity. 1) Does the miss imply a wider slowdown in capital markets? More “uneven recovery” than “broad slowdown”. JPM’s miss was product-specific and timing-driven. Reporting indicated the shortfall was materially tied to debt underwriting coming in below what the bank itself had guided, rather than a uniform decline across all capital-markets lines. The wider industry backdrop is not signalling a freeze. Dealogic data cited by Reuters showed global investment banking revenue rose about 15% in 2025, with M&A volumes also materially higher year on year. That is inconsistent with a generalised capital-markets slump. Trading strength
Gold’s surge towards USD 4,600 reflects a hybrid of fundamentals and risk positioning, rather than pure panic. What is truly driving the move Fundamentals Central bank demand remains structural, led by EM reserve diversification away from USD assets. Real yields are compressing as markets price eventual US rate cuts while fiscal deficits stay elevated. Supply is inelastic, with limited mine expansion despite higher prices. De-dollarisation dynamics support gold as a neutral reserve asset. Fear and positioning Heightened geopolitical tail risks are prompting institutions to hedge regime shifts, not just short-term shocks. Portfolio flows increasingly treat gold as strategic insurance, not a tactical trade. As highlighted by Goldman Sachs, equities concentration risk and geopolitical instabi
$Apple(AAPL)$ Apple: Has the stock formed a durable bottom? After six consecutive weekly declines, Apple is showing early stabilisation signals, but not yet a confirmed durable bottom. Why a short-term bottom is plausible Positioning reset: Sentiment and positioning have materially de-risked. Many fast-money sellers are already out. Fundamental floor: Services margins, buybacks, and cash flow remain intact, limiting downside compared with prior hardware-led drawdowns. Smartphone leadership regained: Shipment leadership supports revenue stability, even if unit growth remains modest. Why patience may still be required Earnings revisions have not turned: A durable bottom typically coincides with stabilising or rising forward EPS. AI monetisatio
The current rally reflects a clear shift from cyclical supply narratives towards a sustained geopolitical risk premium. The key question is whether this premium is transient or structural. Does the geopolitical premium justify further upside in gold? Yes, with important caveats. Gold’s move above USD 4,600 is not driven by speculative excess alone. It is underpinned by four structural forces: Persistent geopolitical fragmentation Ongoing conflicts, sanctions risk, and great-power rivalry have increased demand for neutral reserve assets. This has lengthened the life of the geopolitical premium rather than creating a short-term spike. Central bank accumulation EM central banks continue to diversify away from USD assets. This demand is price-insensitive and provides a durable floor. Fiscal do