Will gold hit USD 5,000 in 2026? It is possible, but not the base case. At around USD 4,500, gold already reflects expectations of Fed rate cuts, sustained central bank buying, fiscal imbalances, and geopolitical risk. A move to USD 5,000 likely requires an additional catalyst, such as a sharper US slowdown, deeper-than-expected easing, renewed inflation pressure, or a major geopolitical escalation. In a soft-landing scenario with stable growth and a firm US dollar, consolidation below USD 5,000 is more probable than a clean breakout. Futures, ETFs or leveraged ETFs? • ETFs are best for most investors, offering simple, long-term exposure without leverage decay. • Futures suit experienced traders who can manage volatility and margin risk. • Leveraged ETFs are strictly short-term tradin
Novo Nordisk’s rally on approval of an oral Wegovy is strategically important, but it does not automatically guarantee a sustained turnaround. Why the oral approval matters An effective oral GLP-1 materially expands the addressable market. Many patients avoid injectables due to inconvenience or needle aversion, particularly in primary care and early-stage obesity treatment. From a competitive standpoint, this is Novo Nordisk’s first credible answer to Eli Lilly’s strong pipeline momentum and helps rebalance the narrative that NVO is structurally losing ground. Why NVO underperformed so sharply NVO’s 38% decline this year reflects a mix of factors rather than a collapse in the obesity thesis. Concerns centred on manufacturing capacity, slower-than-expected supply expansion, pipeline disappo
Gold reaching USD 5,000 in 2026 is plausible, but not inevitable. Will gold hit USD 5,000 in 2026? The move towards USD 4,500 suggests gold is already pricing in a combination of policy easing, geopolitical risk and structural demand. Two Fed cuts in 2026 would lower real yields, which is historically supportive for gold. In addition, persistent central bank buying, fiscal deficits and currency debasement concerns provide a strong long-term floor. That said, USD 5,000 likely requires a reinforcing shock, such as a sharper economic slowdown, renewed inflationary pressure, or an escalation in geopolitical conflict. In a benign soft-landing scenario with stable growth and a firm US dollar, gold may consolidate between USD 4,200 and USD 4,700 rather than extend aggressively. How to express the
1. China H200 ship-ups and catalyst potential Plans to begin delivering H200 AI chips to China around mid-February 2026 are now widely reported. Initial shipments are expected to comprise roughly 5,000–10,000 module sets, equivalent to approximately 40,000–80,000 chips, subject to Chinese regulatory approval. The move follows a reversal in U.S. export policy that permits H200 sales to “approved customers” with a 25% revenue share for the U.S. government. These shipments would mark the first major resumption of Nvidia’s AI chip exports to China after prior bans. From a demand perspective, the China market represents a meaningful addressable opportunity for Nvidia given the scale of AI adoption among hyperscalers and cloud providers there. Analysts estimate H200 sales could add materia
A measured approach is warranted. How I would plan this week’s trade This is typically a positioning and risk-management week, not an aggressive deployment window. Light net exposure: Maintain partial longs rather than full conviction trades. Liquidity thins quickly into year-end and price moves can exaggerate without confirmation. Favour leaders, not laggards: If participating, I would focus on stocks and indices already holding above key moving averages. Chasing beaten-down names rarely pays during Santa windows. Options bias: Call spreads or short-dated directional structures are preferable to outright equity exposure. Defined risk matters when liquidity is uneven. Cash is a position: Holding dry powder into the final two sessions of December often offers better risk-reward than forcing
Will gold reach US$5,000 in 2026? A move to US$5,000 in 2026 is ambitious but no longer implausible. After breaking US$4,500, gold has entered a regime shift rather than a cyclical rally. Key forces supporting a US$4,800 to US$5,200 tail scenario include: Monetary policy asymmetry: Even two Fed cuts in 2026 would still leave real rates vulnerable if growth slows faster than inflation. Gold responds more to the direction of policy than absolute levels. Central bank accumulation: Reserve diversification away from USD remains structural, not tactical. This creates a persistent bid under pullbacks. Geopolitical risk premium: Unlike past spikes, risk is now multi-polar and persistent rather than event-driven. Silver confirmation: Silver’s outperformance suggests this is a broad precious-metals
1. Will AI Continue as a Dominant Investment Theme in 2026? Strong consensus among major strategists and market outlooks suggests that AI will remain a central theme driving investment flows and economic growth into 2026. Economic Growth and Corporate Capex • Large financial institutions, including Bank of America, highlight that AI investment has meaningfully contributed to current US economic growth and is expected to continue growing in 2026, potentially becoming a more significant driver of productivity and capital spending next year. � • BlackRock’s outlook also points to AI capital expenditure supporting economic growth next year, at three times historical averages. � Market Strategy and Asset Allocation Views • Several brokerages and analysts believe AI will cement itself as a core
The Santa Claus window is statistically favourable, but tactically it still requires discipline. How to plan the week: Positioning over prediction: Liquidity is thinning, so price moves can be exaggerated. I would favour smaller sizing, tighter risk control, and trades aligned with existing trends rather than fresh thematic bets. Leadership matters: Watch whether market leadership broadens beyond a few mega-cap names. A healthy Santa rally typically shows participation from cyclicals and selected defensives, not just headline tech. Macro silence is a feature: With limited data and policy signals, sentiment and flows dominate. That tends to reward momentum, but punishes late, leveraged entries. Bullish on the Santa rally? Cautiously, yes. Seasonality, window dressing, and reduced selling pr
Over the next 12 months, gold’s trajectory is less about a single catalyst and more about policy credibility and regime risk. Key drivers: Real rates and policy confidence Gold responds less to nominal rates than to trust in central banks. If the Federal Reserve cuts into slowing growth while inflation remains sticky, real yields compress and gold stays bid. A credible hawkish pivot would cap upside, but that requires inflation to fall cleanly without economic stress, which remains uncertain. Fiscal dominance and debt optics Persistent deficits and rising refinancing needs in the U.S. and Europe continue to favour gold as a reserve hedge. This is structural, not cyclical. Geopolitics and reserve diversification Central bank buying remains robust, especially outside the West. This provides
The rebound following Micron’s results has clearly stabilised sentiment, but whether this is a clean buy-the-dip for Nvidia depends on time horizon. Fundamentals: Morgan Stanley’s stance is credible. The AI compute cycle remains capacity-constrained, not demand-constrained. Nvidia still sits at the centre of this ecosystem, with strong visibility on data-centre orders extending into 2026. On that basis, dips driven by positioning or sentiment rather than earnings deterioration remain attractive for medium-term investors. Near-term price action: After a sharp rebound, the risk tonight is a gap-up-and-sell-the-news session. Micron’s beat reduces downside tail risk, but it also gives short-term traders an excuse to lock in gains. Nvidia has already rallied meaningfully off recent lows, so ups