How to view Silver’s plunge This was a liquidity and positioning unwind, not a collapse in the long-term thesis. Silver had significantly outperformed gold and became the most crowded expression of the precious-metals trade. When geopolitical risk eased and U.S. data stayed firm, silver absorbed the bulk of the deleveraging. Its higher beta means sharp drops are a feature, not a bug. The speed of the fall suggests forced selling and margin pressure, not a reassessment of structural demand. Could Silver fall to $60 or $50 $60 is plausible in a full sentiment washout, especially if real yields firm and gold consolidates. $50 would likely require a broader macro shock: a sharp USD surge, aggressive rate repricing, or a disorderly unwind across commodities. Possible, but not the base case. Bel
This looks more like a positioning and narrative shock than the start of a structural bear phase for software. What is really driving the selloff The catalyst was not earnings deterioration but perceived disruption risk. The announcement by Anthropic reframed Al from “software tailwind” to “software margin threat”, particularly for legal tech, workflow automation, fintech tooling, and parts of asset management. That narrative shift hit a sector that was already crowded, richly valued, and sensitive to duration. Once selling began, ETF and factor unwinds amplified the move. Six consecutive down sessions, coupled with sharp index-level drawdowns, suggest forced de-risking rather than fresh fundamental discovery. Does software continue to dip Near term, volatility can persist. When thematic l
Advanced Micro Devices: reset or opportunity? This looks less like the end of the Al story and more like a valuation and expectations reset. The sell-off was driven by guidance, not execution. The earnings beat confirmed solid operations, but management did not deliver the near-term Al inflection the market had aggressively priced in. With China demand removed and MI300 ramp visibility pushed out, investors recalibrated from “immediate Al winner” to “cycle participant with timing risk”. That said, calling this the end of AMD’s Al optimism is premature. Three points matter: 1. Crowded trade unwind AMD had become a consensus Al proxy outside Nvidia. When guidance failed to accelerate, positioning, not fundamentals, did the damage. A 17 percent drawdown in one session has clear capitulation c
Alphabet vs Amazon: whose earnings best prove AI monetisation? Alphabet Alphabet’s proof point is Search + Cloud. If Gemini features lift ad yield and engagement without compressing margins, and Google Cloud shows faster growth with improving operating margins, that is direct evidence AI is monetising at scale. Risk: high AI capex diluting margins if revenue lift lags. Amazon Amazon’s test is AWS. Clear signs that AI workloads are driving reacceleration in AWS growth and margin expansion would validate monetisation more cleanly. Enterprise contracts, higher attach rates, and operating leverage make AI revenue easier to attribute. Verdict • Cleaner AI monetisation signal: Amazon (AWS is a paid, usage-driven platform). • Bigger strategic payoff if it lands: Alphabet (AI defending Search mar
Here are the major developments around Alphabet Inc. ahead of its earnings release on 4 February 2026, focusing squarely on your questions about AI momentum, Google Cloud, and competitive pressures on margins. The consensus view heading into the print reflects strong fundamentals mixed with heightened expectations and execution risk. Can AI Momentum Meaningfully Reaccelerate Google Cloud Growth This Quarter? Yes — but with important caveats. • AI-driven demand is supporting robust Google Cloud expansion. Consensus estimates before the earnings release project ~34 – 36 per cent year-on-year Cloud revenue growth in Q4, with approximately $16 billion in sales, signalling continued acceleration. This is notable given the hyper-competitive landscape against AWS and Azure. • Cloud ba
The sharp rebound in precious metals over the last session certainly captures traders’ attention, but it does not yet constitute an unquestionable resumption of a sustained rally. The recovery reflects short-term technical dynamics, positioning adjustments and risk-off sentiment rather than a confirmed trend reversal. Here is a structured view of the factors at play. Key Drivers Behind the Bounce 1. Technical Rebound After Selloffs Gold and silver were deeply oversold after two days of aggressive declines and forced liquidations. When futures and ETF positioning gets extremely stretched to the downside, short-covering and relief buying are common. The intraday moves of +3% in gold and +5% in silver are characteristic of such rebounds. These moves alone do not guarantee a longer-term trend
Advanced Micro Devices: Guidance in Context Guidance Summary AMD reported above-consensus revenue and EPS for its latest quarter, with data-centre revenue of around $5.4 billion. For Q1 2026, guidance was roughly $9.5 billion to $10.1 billion (midpoint of about $9.8 billion), slightly above Street expectations but down sequentially from Q4. Market Reaction Investors focused on the sequential decline in anticipated quarterly sales as a signal that the AI hardware build-out, while intact, might be normalising after a peak cadence of orders. The stock’s downward move reflects this recalibration rather than a fundamental earnings miss. The guidance, though slightly below the most bullish forecasts, was nonetheless in line with analyst estimates and represented a conservative
Gold and silver Possibly a buying opportunity, but not an aggressive one. The selloff was driven more by forced liquidations than weakening fundamentals. Gold’s structural support remains intact, though near-term volatility is likely. Gradual accumulation is preferable. Silver remains higher risk due to speculation. Big Tech in February Selective trimming makes sense. Underperformance points to leadership fatigue, not a broken AI story. Reducing crowded, fully valued names helps manage concentration risk while keeping core exposure. January Barometer for 2026 Supportive, but not decisive. Policy uncertainty and cross-asset volatility suggest a choppy Q1. A pullback would not rule out a constructive 2026. January earnings Solid but uneven. Guidance mattered more than beats. Markets reward
A thoughtful set of questions. January rarely tells a simple story this year. 1. Is the Gold and Silver selloff a “Golden Pit”? Possibly, but selectively and with discipline. The drawdown had all the hallmarks of forced liquidation rather than a fundamental breakdown. Structural drivers for gold remain intact, including central bank demand, geopolitical hedging and longer-term policy uncertainty. That said, after such extreme volatility, a period of consolidation would be healthy. Gradual accumulation on weakness looks more prudent than aggressive dip-buying, especially for silver, which remains far more speculative. 2. Trimming Big Tech in February? Not a wholesale exit, but some rebalancing makes sense. Big Tech is no longer uniformly cheap, and leadership has narrowed. Trimming stretche
Market Context and Recent Price Action Recent sharp sell-offs in gold and silver were among the most extreme in decades, reflecting forced liquidations, extreme leverage unwinding, and technical stresses rather than outright changes in fundamentals. Silver, in particular, saw outsized moves driven by speculative positioning in China and subsequent margin calls. Both metals then staged a strong intraday rebound, with spot gold back above $4 800 and silver reclaiming around the $83 mark. Short-term price spikes and reversals of this magnitude often occur when markets have been stretched beyond typical trading ranges. These reversals can be driven as much by trading dynamics (positions getting flushed) as by investor sentiment. --- Is This a Renewed Rally? Arguments in favour of a