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RabBird

Is it a rabbit, or is it a bird? Is the market bullish or bearish? Follow me and my analysis!

    • RabBirdRabBird
      ·12-03 23:15
      $MSFT 20260618 480.0 PUT$  📉 ADP Jobs Decline – Why “Bad News = Good News” Might Be the Biggest Trap Right Now Everyone is cheering today’s ADP print like it’s bullish — “jobs fell = Fed will cut = stocks go up.” But honestly… this is the exact kind of surface-level optimism that blindsides retail right before the rug gets pulled. Here’s the bigger picture most are ignoring: 1️⃣ A decline of 32,000 private payrolls isn’t “good” — it’s a signal. Hiring is slowing, wage growth is cooling, and multiple sectors are showing fatigue. If the labour market weakens too fast, it doesn’t trigger a gentle Fed pivot… it triggers recession hedging. 2️⃣ Rate cuts that come because of weakness have never been bullish initially. Every maj
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    • RabBirdRabBird
      ·11-26
      $MSFT 20260618 480.0 PUT$  MSFT puts today 💰 But honestly… this Thanksgiving pump is looking more like a bull trap than a true reversal. Over the past week, the market has been pricing in a rate cut narrative again — yet nothing has fundamentally changed: • Fed officials remain data-driven, and the latest data doesn’t justify a cut. • Inflation isn’t convincingly down, labor remains tight, and growth prints are still solid. • If the Fed is genuinely following the numbers, the probability of a near-term cut should be very low — but markets chose to reprice optimism anyway. That disconnect is exactly why my bear/put thesis still stands. What’s even more interesting today: 📉 Volume is extremely low — a sharp contrast to the
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    • RabBirdRabBird
      ·11-18
      Thank you for the mention and acknowledgment!

      🚀 Nov 10—— Nov 14 Leaderboard: Top Traders & Market Highlights!

      @Trade_To_Win_2025：
      Last week (November 10-14), the performance of the Hong Kong and US stock markets showed differentiation and increased volatility: the overall US stock market showed a pattern of "less rise and less fall, mainly defensive", with $标普500(.SPX)$ slightly rising by about 0.1%, $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ slightly falling, and $道琼斯(.DJI)$ slightly rising. The Hong Kong market was affected by weak Chinese economic data and external risk sentiment, causing $恒生指数(HSI)$ to close down nearly 2% on Friday due to a single day plunge. It also fell under pressure throughout the week, w
      🚀 Nov 10—— Nov 14 Leaderboard: Top Traders & Market Highlights!
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    • RabBirdRabBird
      ·11-18
      50% YoY increase in revenue from AI sounds good… or is it not? Baidu reported that its AI-powered businesses grew over 50% year-on-year, reaching about RMB 10B this quarter. That sounds impressive, and it shows that AI is becoming a bigger part of Baidu’s business — roughly one-third of total revenue now. But here’s the catch: Baidu’s free cash flow was –RMB 4.7B earlier this year, and the company clearly said this was “primarily due to increased investment in AI.” This means the AI growth isn’t free — Baidu is spending heavily on servers, GPUs, and data centres. In other words, revenue is rising, but cash is still flowing out faster than it’s coming in. When you compare the ~RMB 3.4B increase in AI revenue to the estimated RMB 20–35B Baidu is likely spending on AI infrastructure, the shor

      Baidu Reports Q3 AI-Powered Business Revenue Up Over 50% To RMB 10 Billion

      Baidu Inc. reported total revenues of RMB 31.2 billion for the third quarter of 2025, representing a 7% decrease year-over-year and a 5% decrease quarter-over-quarter. GAAP net income attributable to Baidu was RMB 3.8 billion . Non-GAAP net income attributable to Baidu was RMB 3.8 billion , an increase of 36% year-over-year and 21% quarter-over-quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was RMB 4.4 billion with a margin of 14%. Total cash and investments stood at RMB 296.4 billion as of September 30, 2025. During the quarter, Baidu reported that revenue from AI-powered businesses grew over 50% year-over-year to approximately RMB 10 billion. The company highlighted strong growth in monetization products such as agents and digital humans, and noted healthy expansion in its AI Cloud segment.Disclaimer: This news brief was created by Public Technologies using generative artificial intelligence. While PUBT strives to provide accurate and timely information, this AI-generated content is for informational
      Baidu Reports Q3 AI-Powered Business Revenue Up Over 50% To RMB 10 Billion
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    • RabBirdRabBird
      ·11-18
      Baidu’s AI revenue jumped 50% YoY to ~RMB 10B, which sounds great, but the full picture is more mixed — the company also reported –RMB 4.7B free cash flow earlier this year mainly due to heavy AI infrastructure spending. So while AI is now a third of Baidu’s revenue, the short-term ROI isn’t strong yet because the cash outlay (servers, GPUs, data centres) is far larger than the revenue gained. In short: solid growth, but still very capital-intensive — more of a long-term bet than immediate profit engine.

      Baidu Reports Q3 AI-Powered Business Revenue Up Over 50% To RMB 10 Billion

      Baidu Inc. reported total revenues of RMB 31.2 billion for the third quarter of 2025, representing a 7% decrease year-over-year and a 5% decrease quarter-over-quarter. GAAP net income attributable to Baidu was RMB 3.8 billion . Non-GAAP net income attributable to Baidu was RMB 3.8 billion , an increase of 36% year-over-year and 21% quarter-over-quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was RMB 4.4 billion with a margin of 14%. Total cash and investments stood at RMB 296.4 billion as of September 30, 2025. During the quarter, Baidu reported that revenue from AI-powered businesses grew over 50% year-over-year to approximately RMB 10 billion. The company highlighted strong growth in monetization products such as agents and digital humans, and noted healthy expansion in its AI Cloud segment.Disclaimer: This news brief was created by Public Technologies using generative artificial intelligence. While PUBT strives to provide accurate and timely information, this AI-generated content is for informational
      Baidu Reports Q3 AI-Powered Business Revenue Up Over 50% To RMB 10 Billion
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    • RabBirdRabBird
      ·11-17
      $AMZN 20260417 215.0 PUT$  🚨 Is the AI Bubble Already Here? Amazon Might Have Just Confirmed It. 🚨 👉 Amazon just did something it hasn’t done in three years — it went to the bond market to borrow money. They’re issuing debt in up to six parts, including a 40-year bond, to raise cash for “general corporate purposes.” That sounds normal… until you look at the bigger picture. Here’s why this matters: • Big tech companies are spending massively on AI. • Data centers, chips, and infrastructure cost billions. • But the ROI is still unclear. • Cash levels are going down. • So companies are now borrowing to stay ahead in the AI race. 🚂 This is how bubbles form: Everyone spends because everyone else is spending — not because the r
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    • RabBirdRabBird
      ·11-14
      $NBIS 20260618 80.0 PUT$  NovemBEAR has arrived 🐻📉 I’ve been preparing for a bear market for a while now — tightening risk, trimming exposure, and keeping an eye on the cracks forming beneath the shiny surface. And now November shows up living up to its name… NovemBEAR. But here’s the real debate: Are we entering an actual bear season 🐻❄️… or just going through a healthy correction 🔧📉? Right now, I’m leaning towards the latter. Even though Michael Burry closed down Scion Asset Management, I still share many of the same concerns he’s been beating the drum about: • AI concentration is reaching uncomfortable levels 🤖🔥 A handful of mega-caps are carrying the entire market. When leadership becomes that narrow, the whole structu
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    • RabBirdRabBird
      ·11-06
      $ORCL 20260320 280.0 PUT$  Heat is turning up, stocks are melting down. 
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    • RabBirdRabBird
      ·10-31
      $ORCL 20260320 280.0 PUT$ 
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    • RabBirdRabBird
      ·10-23
      $SMCI 20260618 40.0 PUT$  📉 Market Alert: Is the AI Bubble Closer Than You Think? Recent headlines are flashing caution for overheated tech and semiconductor stocks: • SMCI (Supermicro) cut its revenue guidance recently, warning of near-term weakness in the AI/data-centre supply chain. • Tesla’s mixed news (delivery miss, regulatory scrutiny) raises broader questions about growth-tech valuations. • The SOXX (Semiconductor Index) trades near 10× Price-to-Sales, a level similar to the dot-com bubble era. • Macro risks loom large: U.S. government shutdown, tariffs and China trade tensions, higher-for-longer interest rates — all impose pressure on high-multiple growth. • Historical data: Mid-term election years tend to sh
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