$MSFT 20260618 480.0 PUT$ Market and investors punish heavily when expectations miss. AI infrastructure spending is high and investors expect lofty returns. A lowered guidance is a big red flag. With the cracks now starting to appear, how prepare d are you for a market downturn? Seasoned investors limit their exposures by hedging, don't be the one caught out in the cold.
$UNH 20260618 300.0 PUT$ First up on the chopping table, UnitedHealth. Defensive. High-quality. Everyone’s “sleep-well-at-night” stock. Earnings out — stock plunges. That alone is a warning. But here’s where it gets uncomfortable. At the same time: • Semiconductors are no longer reacting well to good news • Rallies are getting sold into • Leadership is narrowing, not expanding This is not random. This is late-cycle behaviour. In healthy markets: • Defensives protect capital • Cyclicals lead • Good earnings get rewarded In late-cycle markets: • Defensives break • Cyclicals lose forgiveness • Even strong numbers fail to save price That’s exactly what we’re seeing. Healthcare cracks. Semis stall. Volatility refuses to die. T
$SMCI 20260618 40.0 PUT$ stagflation is here and the fed is printing money. They are just not explicitly saying it. watch your step, it's six feet down ⚠️
$ORCL 20260320 280.0 PUT$ 🐯 Oracle’s $10B Data Center “On Hold” — AI Narrative Meets Credit Reality Reuters just reported Oracle’s $10B Michigan data center is now in limbo after Blue Owl (its biggest data center partner) won’t back the deal, citing concerns around Oracle’s rising debt and AI spending. Here’s the real takeaway: ✅ AI demand is real ❌ AI financing isn’t free anymore Why this matters • This isn’t a “chip shortage” problem — it’s a funding problem. When the lender gets cautious, the buildout slows. • Tech is overheated without clear ROI. Credit markets don’t buy vibes — they buy cashflow. • Higher rates = longer payback period. The “infinite AI capex” story breaks the moment financing terms tighten. What I’m
AI Cracks Deepen: $Broadcom(AVGO)$ Beat… but the Market Still Sold It The last 48 hours just exposed the real fragility under this market. 🔹 Oracle dropped 11% after admitting AI spending isn’t turning into revenue fast enough. 🔹 Broadcom actually beat on revenue — yet the stock fell anyway. Why? Their CFO warned margins are shrinking, even as AI orders rise. That’s the part investors hate: •AI growth witho
$ORCL 20260320 280.0 PUT$ 🐯 Oracle Earnings: Tiny Miss, Big Warning for the AI Trade Oracle’s latest earnings weren’t a blow-up, but the reaction was: • Revenue slightly missed expectations. • Cloud & AI (OCI) still grew strongly, but not “wow” enough for the hype. • Stock got smacked ~10–15% in a day. That tells you one thing: AI leaders are now priced for perfection. Anything less = punishment. On top of that: • AI data center capex is exploding, • Debt is piling up, • We’re in a higher-rate world – funding that AI arms race isn’t free anymore. So what’s the takeaway? • AI demand is real, but the trade is fragile. • Market has shifted from “AI story” → “show me the numbers now.” • Crowded AI names are one small mis
$MSFT 20260618 480.0 PUT$ 📉 ADP Jobs Decline – Why “Bad News = Good News” Might Be the Biggest Trap Right Now Everyone is cheering today’s ADP print like it’s bullish — “jobs fell = Fed will cut = stocks go up.” But honestly… this is the exact kind of surface-level optimism that blindsides retail right before the rug gets pulled. Here’s the bigger picture most are ignoring: 1️⃣ A decline of 32,000 private payrolls isn’t “good” — it’s a signal. Hiring is slowing, wage growth is cooling, and multiple sectors are showing fatigue. If the labour market weakens too fast, it doesn’t trigger a gentle Fed pivot… it triggers recession hedging. 2️⃣ Rate cuts that come because of weakness have never been bullish initially. Every maj
$MSFT 20260618 480.0 PUT$ MSFT puts today 💰 But honestly… this Thanksgiving pump is looking more like a bull trap than a true reversal. Over the past week, the market has been pricing in a rate cut narrative again — yet nothing has fundamentally changed: • Fed officials remain data-driven, and the latest data doesn’t justify a cut. • Inflation isn’t convincingly down, labor remains tight, and growth prints are still solid. • If the Fed is genuinely following the numbers, the probability of a near-term cut should be very low — but markets chose to reprice optimism anyway. That disconnect is exactly why my bear/put thesis still stands. What’s even more interesting today: 📉 Volume is extremely low — a sharp contrast to the