Today’s session is shaped by macro catalysts (CPI expectations) and sector rotations, which create several compelling equities to monitor: - Broadcom (AVGO) Fresh off a double-digit surge, AVGO is riding the AI semiconductor wave. Institutions are rotating back into AI hardware suppliers, making this a key momentum barometer. - Nvidia (NVDA After a sharp pullback, NVDA sits at an inflection point. Any rebound here could confirm that the AI super-cycle remains intact despite short-term volatility. - Oracle (ORCL) Yesterday’s outsized move signals the AI hype is bleeding into SaaS. The narrative around AI-enabled databases is gaining institutional traction, and ORCL could act as a proxy for rotation into enterprise software. - Opendoor (OPEN) The 30% bounce is speculative but noteworthy. It
Smart money isn’t just loading, it’s structuring. Baidu’s yuan-denominated senior unsecured issuance in offshore markets is a deliberate liability-matching strategy: funding RMB-based AI spend (chips, data centers, Apollo Go) with RMB debt, while keeping USD lines clean in a sanctions-risk world. Senior unsecured notes telegraph confidence in cash-flow durability, and pricing in the Dim Sum/Reg-S market taps deep liquidity at tighter spreads than USD comps. This is classic WACC arbitrage—cheaper debt versus equity dilution. For equity, expect near-term FCF compression as AI capex spikes, but the inflection arrives once AI Cloud gross margins expand and inference revenue scales. When capex intensity rolls off and monetization kicks in, Baidu converts AI throughput into cash flow leverage. P
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ My take: The path to $3T is three engines + discipline: Search holds share despite AI overviews by improving ad formats and query monetization. YouTube boosts RPM with Shorts ads + Shopping; CTV keeps lifting brand spend. Cloud sustains margin expansion as AI workloads ramp on first-party silicon. Capital returns stay aggressive; operating leverage does the rest. What I’m watching: TAC/traffic mix, Cloud margin cadence, capex ROI (TPUs, data centers), and any antitrust overhang. Trade plan: Buy dips tied to AI “cost fears” and add when Cloud prints back-to-back margin beats. Risk: legal outcomes, AI inference costs, and hardware capex lag. Alphabet wins by taxing the internet twice—on intent (Search)
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ My take: The story is commercial AIP monetization vs. government durability. If you believe in 25%+ CAGR and 30%+ op margins at scale, $15s are where you get paid to wait. What I’m watching: commercial mix rising, RPO growth, SBC dilution trend, and cash conversion. Trade plan: Scale in near long-term moving averages, add on margin proof, trim into 20s if it runs ahead of fundamentals. Risk: contract timing lumpiness, hype outrunning deployments, dilution re-accelerating. PLTR pays you when AIP becomes invoices—not demos.
$Figma(FIG)$ My take: Great product, elite metrics… but I don’t chase pre-IPO prints. Price discovery works in your favor. Underwriting lens: product-led growth, >120% net retention, premium gross margins, and Rule-of-40 discipline post-public. Valuation sanity: pay premium sales multiples only if growth is durable and SBC is contained. Trade plan: Wait for the S-1, first guide, and the first miss—that’s where the risk premium appears. Risk: collaboration spend cycles, enterprise seat expansion slowing, competition from platform suites. I love Figma the product; I’ll love Figma the stock when the S-1 tells me how much I’m paying.
My take: Tesla breaks out only if the software flywheel outruns auto cyclicality. The three unlocks: FSD take-rate + subscription ARPU inflects—software gross margin is the oxygen. Energy (Megapack) scale drives revenue quality and smooths auto volatility. Credible robotaxi/regulatory path—even a line-of-sight narrative moves multiples. What I’m watching: auto margin ex-credits, deferred revenue from software, energy backlog, and capex per incremental kWh. Trade plan: Chase strength only on a high-volume reclaim of major moving averages with software metrics improving; otherwise, rent the range. Risk: price cuts outpacing cost deflation, autonomy stalls, geopolitical tariffs. TSLA doesn’t moon on metal; it moons when software and energy out-earn the cars.
$Lululemon Athletica(LULU)$ My take: This is a multiple reset, not a broken brand. NA comps slowed, but DTC muscle + men’s + international keep the engine alive. What matters: inventory discipline, new product cycles, and whether China/Intl offsets softer North America. Gross margin is the tell. Framework: If growth normalizes to mid-teens with clean inventory, low-20s EBITDA multiples re-rate. If comps stay soft, it’s a value trap. Trade plan: Starter at capitulation near multi-year support; add only on improving inventory turns and traffic. Risk: fashion miss, markdowns, copycat pressure. LULU isn’t dead—it’s de-rated. I buy brands when the multiple resets and the product still walks off shelves.
My take: The public-market winners in crypto look like regulated picks-and-shovels: fiat ramps, stablecoin rails, and tokenization plumbing. Gemini: exchange + custody + compliance DNA—key is fee take-rate durability and jurisdictions. Figure: on-chain lending + securitization; the question is cost of capital vs. traditional rails and true capital-markets adoption. Next Circle - playbook: audited reserves, regulator-friendly footprint, net interest on float, and enterprise partnerships. What I’m grading: proof of profitability through cycles, attested reserves, regulatory clarity, and concentration risk (one geo, one partner). Trade plan: If/when they list, wait for first earnings and lockup calendar; price quality at a discount to fintech comps unless growth + margins justify a premium. R
My take: AUD gold is near peak territory; margins expand fastest for low-AISC, net-cash producers with long reserve life. Quality producers: Northern Star (NST), Evolution (EVN) for durable free cash flow and operational discipline. Growth torque: De Grey (DEG) on Hemi build-out; Gold Road (GOR) via Gruyere leverage. High beta / macro hedge: smaller producers with operational leverage—only if you can stomach volatility. What matters: AISC trend, reserve life, grade control, and funding path for developers. Trade plan: Own one quality producer + one growth name; add on any real-yield dip. Risk: FX (strong AUD), cost creep (diesel/labour), dilution on unfunded builds. In AU gold I buy margins, not myths—low AISC, long reserves, and fully funded growth.
My take: Today’s flow is about pricing AI capacity, energy tightness, and real-yield drift. I’m watching: AI infra & suppliers: names levered to data center build-outs (GPU/ASIC supply chain, optics, power gear). When capex guides go up, these lead. Energy: crude’s backwardation + low inventories = refiners and integrateds bid on any supply headline. Gold miners: if real yields ease even a touch, beta lives here. China ADRs: policy chatter = squeezes; fade euphoria, buy capitulation. Trade plan: Buy strength in AI infra on high-volume breakouts; rent energy on pullbacks; scale into AU gold if DXY stalls. Tight risk, let winners run.