To The Moon

If a resolution is real and the markets want to gap up & go this week, here's what I believe has the most "torque". 4 buckets. 1.Semiconductors. - ai infrastructure buildout hasn't stopped...this is a temporary fear selloff. When risk-on returns, this can be the highest-beta snapback. 2.Copper snapback. - still HUGE structural demand story (AI data centers, EVs, grid buildout, reshoring). Purely a risk-off/liquidity-driven selloff...demand drivers are completely unrelated to Hormuz. 3.Airlines & Travel. - leading this morning on the initial pop...but was crushed on high jet fuel costs + demand fear. Most direct Hormuz-reversal trade. 4.Crypto. - quietly bottoming first. Historically one of the first + fastest movers when risk appetite returns. Honorable mention - watching financial

Markets show mounting stress: $SPY hits its lowest in 4 months with a fourth straight red week, $VIX remains elevated above 25, $GLD faces record outflows, and $TSLA dips to multi-month lows. 1. $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ Gold $GLD ETF has seen an outflow of $5.5 Billion this month, on track for its largest monthly outflow since April 2013 🚨🚨 2. $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ CBOE Volatility Index $VIX posts 3rd consecutive weekly close above 25 🚨🚨 This is only the 2nd time that's happened since 2023 🤯👀 3. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ S&P 500 $SPY suffers 2nd consecutive close below the 200-day moving average for the first time since May 📉📉 S&P 500 $SPY on trac

Before every trade, I do a "thesis invalidation" writeup. Basically a breakdown of where & why I would exit if wrong. Here's what it looks like (6 parts): 1) technical...if the stock [blank], I'm out: - breaks a key level - loses prior breakout level - hits my stop - fails to hold higher low structure - re-enters prior range (failed breakout) - stock loses relative strength vs $spy 2) fundamental...if the stock's [blank], I'm out: - narrative breaks (no longer strong "story”) - sector / theme loses momentum - insiders start selling aggressively - macro shifts directly hurt the business - leadership starts showing cracks 3) thesis…if the [blank], I’m out: - reason I entered changes - news/narrative shifts - earnings/catalyst invalidates original idea - leaders break down 4) risk…if my [

The market is showing broad weakness, with $BABA and $META under pressure, $SPX testing its 200-day moving average, and $SLV extending a multi-day losing streak, though dip-buyers in AI and cloud names are starting to step in. 1. $Alibaba(BABA)$ $BABA earnings miss sends shares lower (rev/EPS light), yet 1-yr chart shows epic rebound from chart bottoms + volume spikes. AI/cloud dip-buyers piling in? 📉🚀 Alibaba $BABA getting pounded to its lowest price since August 📉📉 2. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ S&P 500 $SPX headed for its first close below the 200-day moving average since May 📉📉 3. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $META has traded below its 200-day moving average sinc

The global financial services industry is currently undergoing a period of rapid change, driven by the intersection of AI, changing consumer preferences, and the rise of digital-first banking. At the center of this change is $Klarna Group plc(KLAR)$ ! Everyone loves shopping, but nobody loves paying, especially Gen Z. What if you could buy now, but pay later? If that sounds appealing to you, you are not alone, as Klarna has attracted over 188M customers to its BNPL business. The company’s primary mission is to provide a fairer and more transparent alternative to traditional credit cards, which often trap consumers in cycles of high-interest debt. By using advanced technology to lower costs and improve service, Klarna is attempting to rebuild the r

My Position Sizing, a Guide: (position sizing = what % of your account you risk on a trade) I personally use a combination of conviction-based sizing and pyramiding, meaning I sized based on how strong my thesis is + add size as the trade works. Here's a loose version of my style, as it applies to a+ setups. To start, I have zero problem putting 35%+ of my account into a high conviction, thematic long idea in a strong market environment. So let's say we have one of those situations in front of us. I have a $100K account, and I am putting up $35K for this trade. Starter position is typically 10-25% of full position, with entry during a basing of price or a retest of prior breakout at key levels. Stoploss is a daily candle close below those predetermined levels, usually around <5% on comm

The market shows mixed signals this week. Volatility remains elevated as $VIX is poised for a rare third consecutive weekly close above 25, reflecting persistent uncertainty. Broad indices face pressure: $SPX is approaching its 200-day moving average, while $SPY risks a third weekly close below its 20-week MA, echoing last year’s tariff-driven weakness. Among individual stocks, $CPB and $AMC have hit multi-year and all-time lows, highlighting ongoing downside risk, whereas $MU reacts sharply post-earnings with potential large market-cap swings, and $SNDK continues its streak with eight consecutive green months. The divergence between beaten-down names and resilient performers underscores a selective, cautious market environment as traders navigate macro and sector-specific headwinds. 1.

I think there is a fundamental misunderstanding about the purpose of Neo-Cloud $IREN Ltd(IREN)$ and $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ capital raises. It's not about what IREN and NBIS can directly do with the $6B and $4B raises, but what they enable. To build a data center, companies use: - Customer Pre-Payments - Bank Financing - Vendor Financing - Revolving Credit Lines - Asset Backed Loans However, these funding sources rarely cover 100% of the costs, companies need the remaining 10-20% in cash. Moreover, customers won't pre-pay, banks won't provide financing, vendors won't delay payments, and creditors won't take assets as collateral if you are broke. All funders must have the trust that you will keep your end of the ba

I have read the new $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ short seller report. 1) I miss DataDInvesting I guess this is why they hired Chris, as he could be writing a detailed response right now. 2) Fundamentally, this comes down to the trust in the management. The short report made some serious allegations, and I am not going to recite all of them as many have already done so. But if they are 100% true (they aren't), then the CEO Anthony Noto and CFO Chris Lapointe committed FRAUD. The allegations don't simply involve aggressive accounting, but clever and sophisticated legal manoeuvring to deceive the SEC, DOJ, lenders, credit investors, shareholders, convertible note investors, and the public. This would imply lawsuits and prison time. I have been foll

I made a "should I be trading?" dashboard. Scores the market across 5 pillars: - volatility (put/call ratio, vix, positioning) - trend (spx vs 20d, 50d, 200d ma's) - breadth (advancing/declining, nas highs/lows) - momentum (sector leaders, laggards, % participation) - macro (fomc, rates, geopolitics) Each is weighted, combined, and averaged to give me a score for the current environment. Basically a yes, no, or stay small. Sometimes I just need someone (or something) to remind me to stay out. Happy to share the prompt if you guys want it...but I made this with perplexity_ai's Computer. here is the prompt I used on perplexity_ai max (Computer)...feel free to mess around with the weightings, etc. PROMPT: Build “Should I Be Trading?” — Bloomberg Terminal-Style Market Dashboard Build a live, a