To The Moon

If you think Microsoft is too expensive, consider Apple.

Last week, I mentioned that Apple's new product vision pro released next year will bring a disruptive upgrade experience, which will definitely be reflected in Apple's options order, and institutions will be strongly bullish.

I don't know, I didn't expect it to be so strong that institutions actually sold ATM puts:

sell $AAPL 20231117 180.0 PUT$

Option volume 2500, sellers margin of about 13.5 million. The option expiration date is November 17, and the institution believes that Apple's stock price will stabilize above 180 on November 17, or above 180 on that day.

sell $AAPL 20240119 215.0 CALL$

sell $AAPL 20240315 180.0 PUT$

This is a sell strangle strategy. The quantity and transaction amount of sell call do not meet the screening requirements, so they are not shown in the figure. sell put single leg volume 3000, margin required 16.2 million. The put expiration date is March 15, 2024, and a sell put means that the institution believes that Apple's stock price will stabilize above 180 in March next year or above 180 on that day.

The expiration date of the sell call is January 2024, and the agency believes that Apple's stock price will not rise above 215 before or on that date.

sell $AAPL 20240621 180.0 PUT$

The volume is about 10,000, and the margin needs to be 54 million. The expiration date of the option is June 21, 2024, and the agency believes that Apple's stock price will be above 180 by June next year.

It can be said that these large orders through different periods of time to sell put Apple's stock price nailed above 180. No higher than 215 by January next year can also be understood, and new products, no matter how disruptive the experience, will not be released until spring.

I have observed that most sell puts are much more predictive of trends than buy calls. The buyers are speculating, but the sellers are putting real money on the margin, which is why I think the sell put at par is more aggressive. Margin calls are no joke.

Of course, the trend of Apple is not without naysayers, such as December 15 this option is to buy put large single $AAPL 20231215 180.0 PUT$ . The major media and the comment section have a lot of pessimistic, and even compared the META's upcoming release of the toy Quest3 to the vision pro. If anyone feels the same way, I can only say that there are institutions on this side, and good luck to those people.

How about the stock price trend with the ATM sell put signal, you can refer to the trend of Microsoft in March this year.

For this trend of Apple, this wave of AI brought about by the technological revolution, I think the most happy person may be Powell, inflation has been contained, the economy does not even have to land, this official, the luck is too good?