To The Moon

Public Holidays

No public holidays for Hong Kong, Singapore the US & China in the coming week.

Economic Calendar (24Jul2023)

Economic Calendar for the week starting 24 Jul 2023

Notable Highlights

Fed interest rate decision should be the most watched macro news for the coming week. With the Fed predicting another 2 more interest rate hikes, it is speculated that the market is expecting a rate hike of 25bps. How will the market respond to this? The tone of the speech during the announcement may be a key reference. If the tone is largely hawkish, the market may not respond kindly to this.

PCE - This is the Fed’s preferred indicator coming to inflation and the forecast (MoM) is a persistent 0.2% growth. This is an important data point as the Fed uses this as an important reference for the next course of action in dealing with inflation.

GDP updated (QoQ) Q2 - there will be an update to the Q2 GDP QoQ and it is expected to be 1.8%.

Sales data - Retail Sales & Core retail sales data will be shared that reveal retail consumption in the US.

Home & buildings. Pending home sales, new home sales & building permits data will provide an update on the outlook of real estate. With high-interest rates & limited homes available, this continued environment can be challenging if dragged out.

CB consumer confidence shares how the consumers feel about the economy. The higher the number, the more “bullish” the consumers feel about the market.

Jobless claims. Initial jobless claims will be announced on Thursday. We will also get an update on the unemployment rate. This would form important data points for the Fed to decide on the next interest rate adjustment.

Crude Oil Inventories can be seen as forward indicators of market demand and consumption. If the trend of excess inventories continues, this implies demand erosion that can lead to reduced production & weakening consumer spending. The last crude oil saw a bigger drawdown than expected.

Earnings Calendar (24 Jul 2023) ~

This is a week of earnings for the Big Tech, hotels and oil & gas. This is an important week that sets the one for the earnings season. Strong earnings would be able to dispel the concerns of a coming recession.

Alphabet’s performance (Google)‌

The above is the performance of Alphabet (Google) for the last 10 years. There is a good trend of increasing revenue since 2013. For operating profit, there is a constant increase until 2022 when it clocked $74.8B, a dip from $78.7B in 2021. Thus, there is also a dip in the EPS - from 5.61 (2021) to $4.56 (2022).

Alphabet managed a 4.97% gain from a year ago and is currently at a P/E ratio of 26.44.

For the coming earning, the forecast for Alphabet’s EPS and revenue is 1.34 and $72.8B respectively. Will Alphabet be able to beat the earnings estimate?

Market Outlook - 24 Jul 2023‌

S&P500 1D dated 22Jul2023

Technical observations of the S&P500 1D chart:

The stochastic indicator is on a downtrend.

The MACD indicator is on an uptrend but looks to complete a top crossover. Once completed, S&P500 may go on a downhill run.

Moving Averages (MA). Both MA50 & MA200 lines are on an uptrend. With the last candle being above both the MA50 line and MA200 lines, this can be interpreted as an uptrend in the mid-term and the long-term.

Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). The lines are on an uptrend. Thus, the current uptrend remains in momentum as the reversal is not confirmed (by the crossovers of the EMA lines).

S&P500 (daily) technical indicators

From the technical indicators above, there are a total of 22 (Buy), 1 (Sell) and 0 (Neutral). Investing recommends a “STRONG BUY” based on the technical indicators above.

My thoughts

Based on the technicals, most of them are pointing to a continuous bull run. However, some of the technicals like the stochastic indicator point to a downtrend.

‌@TigerStars  ‌

‌$S&P 500(.SPX)$  ‌